TOPLINE
India will overtake China to become the world’s most populous nation by this summer, data released by the United Nations on Wednesday showed, a tipping point that highlights shifting demographics between the two Asian countries collectively home to more than a third of the global population.
KEY FACTS
India’s estimated population by mid-2023 will stand at 1,428.6 million compared to China’s 1,425.7 million, according to the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNPFA) “State of World Population Report.”
The exact date of when the shift is unclear, but a UNPFA spokesperson told the Hindustan Times that this may have already happened.
The spokesperson added that China’s population peaked in late 2022 and has been declining since, while India’s population continues to grow.
Forbes has contacted the agency for comment.
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India’s population is not only larger than China, but also a lot younger, with 25% being in the 0-14 age group, 18% in the 10-19 group and 26% in the 10-24 group, compared to 17%, 12% and 18% respectively for China.
With an estimated population of 340 million, the United States comes in at a distant third place.
NEWS PEG
The shifting population dynamics come at a critical time for both India and China as the two Asian giants seek to become both regional and global economic leaders. China’s aging population and declining birth rate have raised fears of a looming demographic crisis. This is likely to lead to a shrinking of its labor force, which could in turn have a significant impact on Beijing’s status as a major world power. India, on the other hand, is scrambling to take advantage of what experts call a “demographic dividend” with a large portion of its population being young. This development will likely ramp up India’s government’s efforts to expand employment opportunities as millions of young people enter the workforce.
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BIG NUMBER
8.045 billion. That is the estimate for the world’s total population by mid-2023, according to the UN data. The global population crossed 8 billion for the first time in November last year.
CRUCIAL QUOTE
In a statement accompanying the report, the UNPFA addressed what it calls myths about the global population, including the opposing concerns that too many or too few people are being born. “There is no perfect number of people, nor should we prescribe a number of children that each woman should have. History has shown the damage this kind of thinking can cause, such as eugenics and genocide.” The statement also pushes back against the argument that higher fertility worsens the climate crisis by pointing out the fact that the wealthiest 10% of people—who tend to live in low fertility rate countries—are responsible for nearly half of all greenhouse gas emissions.
FURTHER READING
India is now world’s most populous country, suggests UN data (Hindustan Times)
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