
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-topline">TOPLINE</h2>



<p>Shares of Google parent firm Alphabet fell 3% to a 2024 low on Thursday, after OpenAI launched a test version of SearchGPT, a new artificial intelligence-powered search engine to be implemented into ChatGPT that could enter OpenAI into an internet search market dominated by Google.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h2>



<p>SearchGPT, a new search engine created with OpenAI’s AI models, launched as a temporary “prototype” among a small group of users—<a href="https://www.theverge.com/2024/7/25/24205701/openai-searchgpt-ai-search-engine-google-perplexity-rival" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">reportedly</a>&nbsp;including about 10,000 people—and publishers, the company&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theverge.com/2024/7/25/24205701/openai-searchgpt-ai-search-engine-google-perplexity-rival" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">said</a>.</p>



<p>Alphabet shares fell to a new 52-week low of $167.32 as trading closed on Thursday.</p>



<p>SearchGPT summarizes information from websites and then provides short descriptions with an attribution link instead of linking directly to a website, and allows users to ask follow-up questions or open other relevant links in a sidebar.</p>



<p>In one example, searching for musical festivals in Boone, North Carolina, in August results in a list of each festival and a short description, followed by a link to a website for that festival, with a sidebar with links to other relevant results like event scheduling or ticket sales.</p>



<p>Publishers will be able to “manage how they appear” in search results, according to OpenAI, noting publishers can opt out of having their content used to train OpenAI’s models while still appearing in searches.</p>



<p>OpenAI said it plans to “integrate the best of these features” into ChatGPT in the future, though the company didn’t specify which features would be included.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-we-don-t-know">WHAT WE DON’T KNOW</h2>



<p>It’s not immediately clear how long the testing period will last and when SearchGPT will become more widely available.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h2>



<p>There has been speculation on a new search engine from OpenAI this year, as the company moves to compete with Google in the search market. Bloomberg&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/openai-is-readying-an-ai-search-product-to-rival-google-perplexity" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">reported</a>&nbsp;in May—citing a person familiar with the matter—that OpenAI was developing a new search feature for ChatGPT intended to compete with Google and the AI search startup Perplexity. At the time, OpenAI was “aggressively trying to poach Google employees” to develop the product,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/7/24151616/openai-is-entering-the-search-game" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">according</a>&nbsp;to The Verge. OpenAI was&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-plans-announce-google-search-competitor-monday-sources-say-2024-05-09/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">reportedly</a>&nbsp;planning the new search engine in May, before Google announced plans for its Gemini AI products at the company’s annual developer conference. OpenAI has partnered with several publishers over the last year, including the Associated Press, the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal parent News Corp, and Politico and Business Insider’s parent company Axel Springer, among others. The partnerships allow OpenAI to use content by each publisher to help answer user queries and train the company’s AI models.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tangent">TANGENT</h2>



<p>The New York Times <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/britneynguyen/2023/12/27/new-york-times-sues-openai-and-microsoft-billions-owed-for-ai-copyright-infringement-case-claims/">filed</a> a lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft in December alleging “unlawful use” of millions of copyrighted articles by the publisher being used to train AI models. The Times alleges OpenAI and Microsoft’s technology that powers ChatGPT and Bing Chat, now called Copilot, could “Generate output that recites Times content verbatim, closely summarizes it and mimics its expressive style.” OpenAI filed a <a href="https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/82a013b9ba852548/9d4b1790-full.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">motion</a> to dismiss parts of the complaint, suggesting users did not use ChatGPT or other products from the company as a “substitute” for a subscription to the Times. The lawsuit is ongoing.</p>


In this photo illustration a Open AI logo is displayed on a

OpenAI Announces AI-Powered Search Engine That Could Challenge Google—And Alphabet’s Stock Drops 3%. Here’s What To Know.


<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-topline">TOPLINE</h2>



<p>Higher levels of belly and arm fat may increase the risk of neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s, while high muscle strength may decrease this risk, new research suggests, the latest study to explore the link between body composition and brain degeneration.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h2>



<p>The study included 412,961 participants between the ages of 40 and 70 who were followed for an average of about nine years; 8,224 participants developed neurodegenerative diseases during this time—mainly Parkinson’s disease, Alzheimer’s disease and other forms of dementia.</p>



<p>The researchers found participants with excess arm fat had an 18% greater risk of developing these diseases compared to participants with low levels of arm fat, according to the study published Wednesday in Neurology, the medical journal of the American Academy of Neurology.</p>



<p>Participants with high levels of belly fat were also 13% more likely to develop these neurodegenerative diseases, and this risk was slightly higher in men than women.</p>



<p>However, there was one factor that consistently decreased risks among participants: Having high muscle strength lowered risks by over 25%.</p>



<p>Previous&nbsp;<a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2807421#:~:text=High%20levels%20of%20lean,between%20risk%20factors%20and%20diseases." rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">research</a>&nbsp;found having higher levels of lean muscle mass—the difference between total body weight and body fat—decreases neurodegenerative disease risk, but the Neurology study researchers found inconsistent results on this factor, and suggested muscle quality may play a more important role in reducing risk than muscle quantity.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-crucial-quote">CRUCIAL QUOTE</h2>



<p>“Targeted interventions to reduce trunk and arm fat while promoting healthy muscle development may be more effective for protection against these diseases than general weight control,” Dr. Huan Song, a study author and professor for Sichuan University in China, said in a statement.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-why-does-excess-fat-increase-the-risk-of-neurodegenerative-disease">WHY DOES EXCESS FAT INCREASE THE RISK OF NEURODEGENERATIVE DISEASE?</h2>



<p>One reason high levels of belly fat increases this risk is due to a type of fat called visceral fat, which only lies around abdominal organs. Visceral fat is also called “<a href="https://www.webmd.com/diet/what-is-visceral-fat" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">hidden fat</a>” because it’s located within the stomach and isn’t visible to the naked eye. Middle-aged people with excess visceral fat have increased levels of tau and amyloid proteins in their brains, which are both indicators of Alzheimer’s, according to a 2023&nbsp;<a href="https://www.aginganddisease.org/EN/10.14336/AD.2023.0707" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">study</a>&nbsp;published in Aging &amp; Disease. Researchers have&nbsp;<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/cellular-neuroscience/articles/10.3389/fncel.2023.1294420/full" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">found</a>&nbsp;obesity significantly increases the risk of developing neurodegenerative diseases. The brain naturally shrinks with age, but obesity can cause this process to speed up, causing the brain to age by about 10 excess years and increasing Alzheimer’s risk,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.alzheimers.org.uk/about-dementia/managing-the-risk-of-dementia/reduce-your-risk-of-dementia/obesity" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">according</a>&nbsp;to the Alzheimer’s Society. Metabolic changes associated with excess fat can damage the central nervous system, and can then lead to neuronal cell death, which is a known contributor to neurodegenerative disease, a Life Sciences&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S002432051730276X?via%3Dihub" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">study</a>&nbsp;suggested.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tangent">TANGENT</h2>



<p>The Neurology study researchers also considered how cardiovascular diseases—like heart disease or stroke—factor into degenerative brain disease development. Around 35% and 22% of participants with excess belly and arm fat, respectively, developed some form of cardiovascular disease after the study began, but before the onset of neurodegenerative diseases. Cardiovascular diseases have been&nbsp;<a href="https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)30367-6/fulltext" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">previously linked</a>&nbsp;as risk factors for neurodegenerative disease. The researchers believe early management of cardiovascular diseases in people with excess arm and belly fat may mitigate neurodegeneration.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-big-number">BIG NUMBER</h2>



<p>30 million. That’s how many people worldwide are living with a degenerative brain disease,&nbsp;<a href="https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/24976-neurodegenerative-diseases" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">according</a>&nbsp;to the Cleveland Clinic.</p>


Neurology research, conceptual image

Excess Arm And Stomach Fat Boosts Alzheimer’s And Parkinson’s Risk While Muscle Strength Decreases It, Study Suggests


<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-topline">TOPLINE</h2>



<p>Google parent Alphabet came in above Wall Street’s lofty expectations in its second-quarter earnings report released Tuesday afternoon, as the internet behemoth continues to rake in tens of billions of advertising dollars.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h2>



<p>Alphabet’s $84.7 billion of second-quarter revenue was slightly above average analyst estimates of $84.2 billion, according to FactSet, a 14% year-over-year increase.</p>



<p>The company tallied earnings per share of $1.89, also topping forecasts of $1.84, while its $23.6 billion net income was just shy of Q1’s prior record of $23.7 billion.</p>



<p>Shares of the Silicon Valley kingpin rose slightly immediately after the earnings announcement.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h2>



<p>Alphabet’s report is part of a flurry of second-quarter earnings, with 25% of S&amp;P 500 companies scheduled to report fiscal results this week, according to Bank of America. A digital age conglomerate whose products include leading search engine Google, paid cable alternative YouTube TV, Microsoft Office 365 competitor Google Workspace and generative artificial intelligence chatbot ChatGPT’s rival Gemini, Alphabet is an advertising business at its core. About three-fourths of its Q2 revenues were from ads, including $49 billion from its search business and $9 billion on YouTube ads. Like it has been for many other big tech stocks during the AI boom, it’s been a very nice stretch for Alphabet stock, returning about 50% over the last year and over 100% from its late 2022 low. Alphabet is the fourth-most-valuable company in the world by market value, worth nearly $2.3 trillion as of Tuesday’s stock market closure, trailing only fellow West Coast tech companies Apple, Microsoft and AI golden child Nvidia in market capitalization. Google paid its first ever quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share last month.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-big-number">BIG NUMBER</h2>



<p>31%. That’s how much higher Alphabet’s second-quarter adjusted earnings per share was than the same period last year. The company is expected to contribute to the fourth-greatest share of profit growth to the S&amp;P,&nbsp;<a href="https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_071924.pdf" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">according</a>&nbsp;to FactSet, trailing only Nvidia, Google Cloud competitor Amazon and advertising foe Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tangent">TANGENT</h2>



<p>Alphabet’s potential <a href="https://www.cbinsights.com/research/google-biggest-acquisitions-infographic/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">largest-ever</a> acquisition, a $23 billion purchase of Israeli cybersecurity firm Wiz, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2024/07/22/google-is-not-buying-wiz-for-23-billion-after-all/">fell through</a> late Monday after the sides were <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/google-near-23-billion-deal-for-cybersecurity-startup-wiz-622edf1a?mod=article_inline" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">reportedly</a> in advanced talks for a deal last week.<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/"></a></p>


FRANCE-ECONOMY-TECHNOLOGY-VIVATECH

Google Earnings Top Estimates With $24 Billion Quarterly Profit


<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-topline">TOPLINE</h2>



<p>The use of GLP-1 medications like semaglutide for weight loss has increased twofold over the past decade, but declined in use among type 2 diabetics, according to a new study, and the researchers warn the resulting and ongoing drug shortage may limit diabetics’ access to the drugs.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h2>



<p>Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center examined 1 million first-time GLP-1 prescriptions in the U.S. between 2011 and 2023 and separated patients by those who took GLP-1s for type 2 diabetes, and those who didn’t have diabetes but took them for obesity or obesity-related health conditions like high blood pressure and heart disease.</p>



<p>The amount of new patients prescribed GLP-1s for diabetes decreased by almost 10% between 2011 and 2023, while those who were prescribed the drugs for obesity or other obesity-related conditions more than doubled during the same time period, particularly since 2020, according to the study published Monday in the Annals of Internal Medicine.</p>



<p>Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide—the generic name for Ozempic, Wegovy and Rybelsus—was the most prescribed GLP-1 in 2023, making up over 88% of all new prescriptions.</p>



<p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK551568/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">GLP-1s</a>&nbsp;are medications designed to manage type 2 diabetes, heart disease and obesity by lowering blood sugar and A1C, interacting with the hunger part of the brain to suppress the appetite and slowing down the process of food emptying from the stomach, causing patients to feel full longer.</p>



<p>The researchers warned the medications’ growing popularity among those with obesity could be exacerbating a nationwide drug shortage, and also raises concerns about “the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments,” Dr. Yee Hui Yeo, the study’s co-first author and a clinical fellow in the Karsh Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology at Cedars-Sinai, said in a statement.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-glp-1s-have-been-approved-for-weight-loss">WHAT GLP-1S HAVE BEEN APPROVED FOR WEIGHT LOSS?</h2>



<p>There are&nbsp;<a href="https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/treatments/13901-glp-1-agonists" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">seven approved</a>&nbsp;GLP-1 drugs in the U.S. There’s also a similar class of medications called dual GLP-1 and GIP receptor agonists, and tirzepatide (the generic name for Mounjaro and Zepbound) is the only drug available in the U.S. from this group. However, only&nbsp;<a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">semaglutide</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.novonordisk.com/content/nncorp/global/en/news-and-media/news-and-ir-materials/news-details.html?id=1430#:~:text=Bagsv%C3%A6rd%2C%20Denmark%2C%2023%20December%202014,for%20the%20treatment%20of%20obesity." rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">liraglutide</a>—the generic name for Saxenda and Victoza—and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-medication-chronic-weight-management" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">tirzepatide</a>&nbsp;have been approved by the Food and Drug Administration for weight management. Saxenda was the first to be approved in 2014, followed by Wegovy in 2020 and Zepbound in 2023.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-is-there-still-a-glp-1-drug-shortage">IS THERE STILL A GLP-1 DRUG SHORTAGE?</h2>



<p>Yes, several GLP-1s have been in short supply for months, though some appear to be back in stock. The three lowest doses of Wegovy are still in a shortage with no expected date of recovery, while all doses of Ozempic are available, according to the FDA’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/drugshortages/dsp_ActiveIngredientDetails.cfm?AI=Semaglutide%20Injection&amp;st=c" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">database</a>. Two doses of both Mounjaro and Zepbound are in a shortage, though the FDA reports availability will improve after July. Doses of Saxenda and Victoza are also in short supply. The FDA blames increasing demand as the reason for the shortages. The shortages aren’t just affecting the U.S.: The European Medicines Agency&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/385/bmj.q1448?utm_campaign=usage&amp;utm_content=tbmj_sprout&amp;utm_id=BMJ005&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">warned</a>&nbsp;the GLP-1 drug shortage is a “major public health concern” that probably won’t be resolved in 2024. Diabetics have had a hard time getting ahold of their medications because of the shortages, with some rationing their drugs to cope with the lack of supply, NPR&nbsp;<a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2024/07/10/nx-s1-5006103/ozempic-wegovy-semaglutide-shortage-type-2-diabetes-obesity#:~:text=Television-,Shortages%20of%20Ozempic%20and%20other%20drugs%20harms%20Type%202%20diabetes,them%20when%20they%20need%20them." rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">reported</a>.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h2>



<p>Adverse side effects may also be causing a decline in GLP-1 use among type 2 diabetics.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/type-2-diabetes/diagnosis-treatment/drc-20351199#:~:text=Metformin%20(Fortamet%2C%20Glumetza%2C%20others,it%20uses%20insulin%20more%20effectively." rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Metformin</a>&nbsp;is considered the go-to drug for glucose management in type 2 diabetics, but many patients take second-line drugs—type 2 diabetes drugs that aren’t insulin—like GLP-1s to assist with treatment, according to a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ajmc.com/view/treatment-modification-after-initiating-second-line-medication-for-type-2-diabetes" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">study</a>&nbsp;by Northwestern Medicine. Almost 40% of patients taking second-line diabetes drugs stop treatment, but this number is even higher (50%) among those taking GLP-1s. The researchers believe this may be due to gastrointestinal side effects—like vomiting, nausea and diarrhea—associated with GLP-1s. Other than side effects, the high cost of the drugs is also a leading cause of discontinuation, according to a separate&nbsp;<a href="https://diabetesjournals.org/spectrum/article/34/2/175/32908/Exploring-Why-People-With-Type-2-Diabetes-Do-or-Do" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">study</a>&nbsp;by the American Diabetes Association.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-big-number">BIG NUMBER</h2>



<p>$100 billion. That’s how much the weight loss drug industry could be worth by 2030,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-17/lilly-lly-and-novo-novob-seen-dominating-100-billion-obesity-market-in-2030" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">analysts estimate</a>, though some believe this is a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/28/obesity-drugs-to-be-worth-200-billion-in-next-10-years-barclays-says.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">lowball</a>&nbsp;estimate.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-surprising-fact">SURPRISING FACT</h2>



<p>The Cedars-Sinai researchers also found the percentage of people who were prescribed GLP-1s who didn’t meet the FDA requirements for the drugs increased from 0.21% in 2019 to 0.37% in 2023. These are people who are being prescribed the drugs off-label even though they don’t have diabetes, obesity, heart disease or any other related health condition. Although a slight increase, this could be tied to the growing popularity of people who aren’t obese&nbsp;<a href="https://www.webmd.com/obesity/news/20230801/using-ozempic-for-minor-weight-loss-fair-or-foul" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">using</a>&nbsp;Wegovy and other GLP-1s for weight loss. Using GLP-1s for weight loss without meeting the FDA requirements is “abuse,” and these people are “far more likely to develop the serious side effects,” Dr. Nancy Rahnama, a Beverly Hills-based internal and bariatric medicine specialist with her own private practice,&nbsp;<a href="https://beverlyhillscourier.com/2023/11/16/the-real-skinny-on-weight-loss/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">told</a>&nbsp;local newspaper the Beverly Hills Courier.</p>


Novo Nordisk A/S Scouts Deals to Gain New Medicines and Technology

GLP-1s Are Growing In Popularity As Weight Loss Drugs But Losing Steam Among Diabetics, Study Suggests


<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-topline">TOPLINE</h2>



<p>Foreign betting markets believe Vice President Kamala Harris is in pole position to become the Democratic nominee for the 2024 election, while former President Donald Trump’s odds of winning the presidency in November took a slight hit Monday—though he remains bookmakers’ favorite with a sizable lead.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h2>



<p>Bettors on the crypto-based betting platform&nbsp;<a href="https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-nominee-2024?tid=1721631724852" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Polymarket</a>&nbsp;and New Zealand-based&nbsp;<a href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">PredictIt</a>&nbsp;are predicting Harris has an 84% chance of becoming the Democratic nominee for president after she was endorsed by President Joe Biden—who dropped out of the race on Sunday—and other top Democrats.</p>



<p>On&nbsp;<a href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024?tid=1721633893487" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Polymarket</a>, Harris is now locked in an almost dead heat with Trump—44% and 45%, respectively—on who the market believes will win the popular vote in November, although bookmakers still&nbsp;<a href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election?tid=1721631660405" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">give</a>&nbsp;him a 64% chance (a 35-point lead) of winning the election.</p>



<p>Despite his lead, bets favoring a Trump win on Polymarket have shrunk in the past week, dropping seven points while Harris’s odds have&nbsp;<a href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election?tid=1721631660405" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">surged</a>&nbsp;from single digits to 29%—as the Democratic winning bet has consolidated around her.</p>



<p>Bettors on PredictIt are giving Harris&nbsp;<a href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">comparatively better</a>&nbsp;odds of winning the election at 39%, and while Trump remains well ahead at 60%—he is down nine points over the past seven days.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-news-peg">NEWS PEG</h2>



<p>While bettors believe Harris is the firm favorite to be the Democrats’ presidential nominee, the odds are more spread out on the question of her potential running mate. Bookmakers on&nbsp;<a href="https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-vp-nominee?tid=1721634626374" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Polymarket</a>&nbsp;predict North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper has the best odds with 33%—followed by Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 26%. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., are further back in third and fourth place with odds of 17% and 15%.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8089/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-vice-presidential-nomination" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">PredictIt</a>&nbsp;bettors, however, believe Shapiro has better odds (27%) compared to Cooper (22%) followed by Kelly (20%).</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tangent">TANGENT</h2>



<p>Last week,&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/billsperos/status/1812854940794077482" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Fanduel</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.oddstrader.com/news/betmgm-fanduel-suspend-us-presidential-election-wagering-canada/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">BetMGM</a>&nbsp;halted their U.S. election betting markets—which were being operated from Canada—after the assassination attempt against Trump. In May, the CFTC&nbsp;<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/10/cftc-election-betting-ban-00157304" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">proposed</a>&nbsp;a law to ban all election-related betting in the U.S. derivatives market. The federal agency’s proposal came after it was sued by PredictIt while trying to shut the platform down.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-further-reading">FURTHER READING</h2>



<p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/07/18/betting-markets-swing-towards-harris-being-democratic-nominee-again-as-pushback-against-biden-grows/">Betting Markets Swing Towards Harris Being Democratic Nominee—As Pushback Against Biden Grows</a>&nbsp;(Forbes)</p>


Vice President Harris Holds Campaign Event In Kalamazoo, Michigan

Harris Rises In Election Betting Markets—But Bookmakers Still Favor Trump


<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-topline">TOPLINE</h2>



<p>President Joe Biden announced Sunday he will end his 2024 presidential campaign, saying he believes “it is in the best interest of my party and the country to stand down.”</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h2>



<p>Biden stepped down after more than three dozen&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/07/19/every-big-name-urging-biden-to-drop-out-third-senator-joins-30-other-congressional-democrats/">Democrats in Congress</a>&nbsp;urged him to do so, and after a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/07/18/biden-pressure-grows-top-dems-think-hell-drop-out-within-days-report-says/">flurry of reports</a>&nbsp;that Democratic leaders in Congress were working behind the scenes to push Biden to end his bid.</p>



<p>Biden has faced questions for months about whether he is too old to serve another term, but the party largely stood behind him until his disastrous June 27 debate performance, when Biden often appeared bewildered, gave disjointed answers and spoke in a soft, raspy voice—leading to an onslaught of backlash from pundits, major newspapers, celebrities, donors and elected Democrats.</p>



<p>Biden’s decision to leave the race at this stage in the election cycle is unprecedented in modern politics and sets up a mad dash to choose his replacement, just weeks before the party is set to formally choose its nominee in a virtual roll call the first week of August.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-when-will-a-new-nominee-be-chosen">WHEN WILL A NEW NOMINEE BE CHOSEN?</h2>



<p>Democrats plan to hold a virtual roll call to formally select their nominee as soon as Aug. 1 and before Aug. 7, ahead of the party’s Aug. 19 convention. The party initially planned the early roll call to ensure Biden would be on the ballot in Ohio, which previously required nominees to be confirmed 90 days before the election. Ohio has since revised its law, but it doesn’t take effect until Sept. 1, so Democrats have said they will move forward with the early nomination anyway.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-how-will-democrats-replace-biden">HOW WILL DEMOCRATS REPLACE BIDEN?</h2>



<p>The approximately 4,700 Democratic delegates will choose a new candidate by majority vote. About 4,000 delegates are “pledged” to Biden, but by stepping down, he effectively releases them from their obligation to vote for him. The 700 “unpledged” delegates—also known as superdelegates and can vote for whoever they please—are allowed to vote in a second round if a candidate does not secure the majority votes needed to win in the first round.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-is-an-open-convention">WHAT IS AN OPEN CONVENTION?</h2>



<p>An open convention would occur if multiple candidates are presented to delegates at the convention, and Biden hasn’t endorsed a replacement, leaving his delegates free to vote for anyone.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-is-a-mini-primary">WHAT IS A ‘MINI-PRIMARY’?</h2>



<p>The process of choosing a new nominee isn’t exactly clear, but some have floated a “mini primary” involving a series of campaign events—such as debates, high-profile interviews or town halls—between potential Biden replacements prior to delegates casting their votes. Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C., has said he would support Harris as the nominee if Biden dropped out and the party coalesced around her, but he has also suggested Democrats could conduct a “mini primary” to survey other candidates, an idea New York Times columnist&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/07/opinion/biden-jim-clyburn-democrats.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Ezra Klein</a>&nbsp;and longtime Democratic political consultant&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/08/opinion/biden-democratic-nominee.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">James Carville</a>&nbsp;also endorsed.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-who-are-the-top-contenders-to-replace-biden">WHO ARE THE TOP CONTENDERS TO REPLACE BIDEN?</h2>



<p>Harris is the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/07/18/these-are-the-likely-democratic-presidential-candidates-if-biden-drops-out/">top contender</a>, but other names commonly floated include California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Illinois Gov. J.B.&nbsp;<a href="https://abc7chicago.com/president-joe-biden-documents-doj-report-governor-jb-pritzker/14405259/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Pritzker</a>, Michigan Gov. Gretchen&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wxyz.com/news/democracy-2022/whitmer-says-she-wont-run-for-president-in-2024-if-biden-chooses-not-to-run" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Whitmer</a>, Colorado Gov. Jared&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/11/politics/biden-democratic-primary-challenge-2024/index.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Polis</a>, and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/pennsylvania-gov-josh-shapiro-biden-trump-brain-fog-2024-rcna125771" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Shapiro</a>. Previous Democratic presidential candidates Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Sens. Cory Booker, D-N.J., and Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., are also among the potential contenders. No Democrats who have been seriously floated as potential replacements have said they’re interested in the 2024 nomination.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-how-is-kamala-harris-polling">HOW IS KAMALA HARRIS POLLING?</h2>



<p>Similar to Biden and slightly better than all other potential replacements surveyed, but still worse than Trump,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/07/18/heres-how-kamala-harris-performs-in-polls-against-trump-as-she-emerges-as-most-likely-biden-replacement/">according to most surveys</a>. A mid-July&nbsp;<a href="https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_sPu9WiO.pdf" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">YouGov poll</a>&nbsp;(margin of error 3.1) found Biden would lose to Trump by two points and Harris would lose by three, while a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/race-presidency-remains-unchanged-wake-assassination-attempt-trump" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Reuters/Ipsos poll</a>&nbsp;found both Biden and Harris are virtually statistically tied with Trump. In a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/02/politics/cnn-poll-post-debate/index.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">CNN/SSRS poll</a>&nbsp;(margin of error 3.5) conducted days after the debate, Harris outperformed Biden, and three other potential candidates commonly floated to replace him, in a hypothetical matchup against Trump—but she would still lose to the former president by two points (while Biden would lose to Trump by six points).</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-do-supporters-and-critics-say-about-harris">WHAT DO SUPPORTERS—AND CRITICS—SAY ABOUT HARRIS?</h2>



<p>Several prominent Democrats explicitly mentioned Harris as the most viable option to replace Biden prior to him announcing his resignation from the race. Clyburn has said he believes Harris would do “very well” at the top of the ticket and the party should do everything it can to “bolster” her would-be candidacy. Harris has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/07/18/kamala-harris-as-biden-replacement-grows-more-likely-as-he-reportedly-weighs-dropping-out-heres-what-to-know-about-her-record/">downsides</a>, however, including a relatively low approval rating (though it’s likely a direct reflection of Biden’s own low approval rating) and a series of negative stories about her job performance as vice president, including that she’s been largely absent from the public eye. Her record as a state and local prosecutor has also drawn ire from some progressives who have accused her of not doing enough to investigate police misconduct and have pointed out her history of prosecuting marijuana-related offenses. Harris’ views on criminal justice seem to have evolved however, as&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-vp-harris-talk-marijuana-reform-white-house-friday-2024-03-15/#:~:text=United%20States-,No%20one%20should%20go%20to%20jail%20for%20'smoking%20weed%2C',Harris%20says%20at%20White%20House&amp;text=WASHINGTON%2C%20March%2015%20(Reuters),others%20pardoned%20for%20marijuana%20convictions." rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">she’s endorsed</a>&nbsp;Biden’s pardoning of federal marijuana-related convictions and she has spoken out against the notion that putting more police in the streets increases public safety. Former Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, slammed Harris’ detractors in endorsing her to replace Biden in a recent&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-should-democratic-nominee-president-2024-opinion-1919894" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Newsweek op-ed</a>, calling her “a joy to hang out with . . . brilliant, compassionate, engaging, funny and totally down to earth.” Harris, he said, “can energize the electorate and govern effectively.”</p>



<p><em>This is a developing story. Check back for updates.</em></p>


President Biden Addresses NAACP Convention In Las Vegas

Biden Drops Out Of 2024 Race—Here’s What Happens Next


<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-topline">TOPLINE</h2>



<p>Microsoft and the cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike have issued fixes for the global outage impacting computers running the Windows operating system, though issues still linger as the outage has forced major airlines to ground flights, disrupted television and put banking services offline.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h2>



<p>The outage has been blamed on a software update by cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike, which has resulted in many Windows systems experiencing the dreaded “Blue Screen of Death” (BSOD) while booting.</p>



<p>The underlying issue causing outages for Microsoft’s 365 apps and services—including Outlook, Teams and Office—has been fixed, the company&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/MSFT365Status/status/1814250426763751858" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">said</a>, though a “residual impact” is continuing to affect some services.</p>



<p>CrowdStrike president and chief executive George Kurtz&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/George_Kurtz/status/1814235001745027317" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">said</a>&nbsp;the company was “actively working” with customers impacted by an issue found in a content update on Windows computers, adding the “issue has been identified, isolated and a fix has been deployed.”</p>



<p>Microsoft&nbsp;<a href="https://azure.status.microsoft/en-us/status" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">said</a>&nbsp;it is aware of the issue affecting machines running Windows, and noted it is affecting systems running CrowdStrike’s Falcon security software.</p>



<p>The U.S. Emergency Alerts System&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/ENSAlerts/status/1814199937753620491" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">said</a>&nbsp;911 lines in multiple states were down.</p>



<p><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/19/business/delta-american-airlines-flights-outage-intl-hnk/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">According to</a>&nbsp;the Federal Aviation Administration, nearly all major American carriers—including Delta, American and United—have been forced to temporarily ground all their flights due to the outage, while carriers and airports including&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/airindia/status/1814211516079681809" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Air India</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/KLM/status/1814215826301448539" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">KLM</a>, Hong Kong International Airport, Berlin Brandenburg Airport and London Stansted also reported disruptions, forcing some of them to rely on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3271092/global-microsoft-aviation-outage-hits-hong-kongs-airport-check-services-operated-manually" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">manual check-ins</a>&nbsp;with long queues being reported.</p>



<p>The&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/lsegs-workspace-platform-suffers-outage-market-sources-say-2024-07-19/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">London Stock Exchange</a>&nbsp;group said its workspace platform was also facing an outage preventing it from publishing statements while banks and payment terminals in Australia were also&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/crowdstrike-it-outage-hits-airports-banks-supermarkets-emergency-committee-to-meet/ezge7qp0g" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">affected</a>, though the New York Stock Exchange&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/19/us-stock-exchanges-say-markets-are-operating-normally-not-impacted-by-crowdstrike-outage.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">reportedly</a>&nbsp;said its systems were unaffected.</p>



<p>CrowdStrike’s shares tanked nearly 16.8% to $285.49 in pre-market trading, while Microsoft’s stock slipped around 2.3% to $430.28.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-big-number">BIG NUMBER</h2>



<p>1,281. That’s the number of flight cancellations across the U.S. on Friday, in addition to 2,905 delays as of 9:15 a.m. EDT, according to&nbsp;<a href="http://flightaware.com/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">FlightAware.com</a>. It’s estimated that up to 3.7 million passengers are flying out of U.S. airports on Friday across 24,000 domestic flights and 3,000 international flights, the aviation analytics firm Cirium&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2024/07/19/1200-canceled-us-flights-and-climbing-due-to-microsoft-outage/">said</a>.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-crucial-quote">CRUCIAL QUOTE</h2>



<p>Ciaran Martin, former director of the U.K. National Cyber Security Centre, told Forbes: “The damage happened where CrowdStrike and Windows are both used &#8230; That’s a lot of important companies. It’s a striking and very concerning illustration of the fragility of digital infrastructure.” Ciaran noted that while the update fixing the issue can be rolled out “quite quickly,” different organizations could take time to implement it “And then there’s the massive logistical tailback in things like aviation.”</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tangent">TANGENT</h2>



<p>CrowdStrike’s website describes Falcon—the software whose update has been blamed for the crash—as a “platform purpose-built to stop breaches… including malware and much more.” The service’s frequently asked questions (FAQ) page describes Falcon as “unobtrusive,” adding: “There’s no UI, no pop-ups, no reboots, and all updates are performed silently and automatically.”</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-to-watch-for">WHAT TO WATCH FOR</h2>



<p>While CrowdStrike said it has rolled out a fix, it could take companies some time to deploy it. Brian Honan, founder of Ireland’s Computer Emergency Response Team told Forbes the fixes require “manual intervention to each individually impacted device, which could lead to a long recovery time from this problem.”</p>



<p>Forbes Daily: Join over 1 million Forbes Daily subscribers and get our best stories, exclusive reporting and essential analysis of the day’s news in your inbox every weekday.Get the latest news on special offers, product updates and content suggestions from Forbes and its affiliates.Sign Up</p>



<p><em>This is a developing story.</em></p>



<p><a href="https://x.com/George_Kurtz/status/1814235001745027317" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank"><em></em></a></p>



<p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/"></a></p>


Major IT Outage Grounds Flights And Impacts Businesses Globally

CrowdStrike Update Causes Global Microsoft Outage Affecting Banks, Airlines And More


<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-topline">TOPLINE</h2>



<p>A German man appears to have been cured of HIV after he received a first-of-its-kind stem cell transplant procedure nearly a decade ago, according to findings announced Thursday, as researchers say he is probably the seventh person worldwide to be cured of the virus affecting tens of millions of people globally.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h2>



<p>The German man—referred to as the “next Berlin patient,” after the first person cured of HIV—stopped taking antiretroviral treatment for HIV in late 2018 after receiving a stem cell transplant for leukemia in 2015, researchers&nbsp;<a href="https://www.iasociety.org/news-release/first-its-kind-hiv-cure-case-among-scientific-highlights-aids-2024" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">announced</a>&nbsp;ahead of the International AIDS Conference in Munich, Germany, adding he was still in HIV remission.</p>



<p>This appears to be the first case in which HIV is cured in a patient whose stem cell donor had a single HIV-resistant mutation, rather than two, which physician Christian Gaebler said could have “promising implications” for future cure strategies.</p>



<p>HIV can still be spread to people with the mutation, which removes a protein the virus uses to enter blood cells, Gaebler said, though the virus progresses slowly if they don’t receive antiretroviral treatment.</p>



<p>The case suggests “we can broaden the donor pool” for other similar cases, Sharon Lewis, president of the International AIDS Society, said.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-surprising-fact">SURPRISING FACT</h2>



<p>In 2009, Timothy Ray Brown, referred to as the “Berlin patient,” was the first person researchers said appeared to be cured of HIV. Ten years later, the “London patient” appeared to be cured, followed by “The City of Hope” and “New York” patients in 2022. Two people, the “Geneva patient” and the “Düsseldorf patient” appeared to be cured last year. All six underwent stem cell transplants to treat blood cancer, while the first five received an HIV-resistant mutation from their donor.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-big-number">BIG NUMBER</h2>



<p>39 million. That’s the estimated number of people across the world who are living with HIV as of the end of 2022, the World Health Organization&nbsp;<a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=how+many+people+have+hiv&amp;oq=how+many+people+have+hiv&amp;gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQRRhAMgwIAhAjGCcYgAQYigUyDAgDECMYJxiABBiKBTIMCAQQABgUGIcCGIAEMgoIBRAAGLEDGIAEMgcIBhAAGIAEMgcIBxAAGIAE0gEIMjQzMmowajeoAgCwAgA&amp;sourceid=chrome&amp;ie=UTF-8" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">said</a>. About 630,000 people died of HIV-related illnesses worldwide that year, according to the organization.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h2>



<p>There is no effective cure for human immunodeficiency virus, a virus that attacks the body’s immune system, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/basics/whatishiv.html#:~:text=It%20was%20probably%20passed%20to,the%20mid%20to%20late%201970s." target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">according</a> to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In recent years, researchers have <a href="https://www.cirm.ca.gov/our-progress/disease-information/hivaids-fact-sheet#:~:text=The%20team%20at%20is%20taking,make%20them%20resistant%20to%20HIV." target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">studied</a> whether stem cell transplants could be used as treatment, with doctors using anti-HIV genes or mutations to combat the virus. If not treated, the virus can result in AIDS, or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, the agency noted, adding, “Once people get HIV, they have it for life.” The virus is often detected through symptoms that resemble flu-like symptoms within two to four weeks after infection, though diagnosis is only possible through testing.</p>


Female Scientist in Lab

HIV Stem Cell Treatment Likely Cures 7th Person In History Of Virus, Doctors Say


<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-topline">TOPLINE</h2>



<p>With companies like OpenAI, Google and Meta dropping increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence products, crowdsourced rankings have emerged as a popular—and virtually only practical—way of determining which tool works best, and LMSYS’s Chatbot Arena has become possibly the most influential real-time gauge.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h2>



<p>While most organizations choose to measure their AI models against a set of general capability benchmarks that cover tasks like solving math problems, programming challenges or answering multiple choice questions across an array of university-level disciplines, there is no industry benchmark or standard practice for assessing large language models (LLMs) like OpenAI’s GPT-4o, Meta’s Llama 3, Google’s Gemini and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2024/06/26/anthropics-claude-what-to-know-about-chatgpt-rival-after-latest-model-trounces-industry-giants/">Anthropic’s Claude</a>.</p>



<p>Even small differences to factors like datasets, prompts and formatting can have a huge impact on how a model performs, and when companies choose their own evaluation criteria, it can make it hard to fairly compare LLMs, Jesse Dodge, a senior scientist at the Allen Institute for AI in Seattle, told Forbes.</p>



<p>The difficulty in comparing LLMs is magnified given how closely leading models score on many commonly used benchmarks, with some companies and tech executives&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/Ahmad_Al_Dahle/status/1780993216118210899" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">claiming</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/1803790676988920098" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">victory</a>&nbsp;over rivals with differences as narrow as 0.1%., so close it would likely go unnoticed by everyday users.</p>



<p>Community-built leaderboards deploying human insight have emerged, and in recent years their popularity has exploded in step with the steady boom of new AI tools like ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Mistral.</p>



<p><a href="https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">The Chatbot Arena</a>, an open source project built by research group&nbsp;<a href="https://lmsys.org/about/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">LMSYS</a>&nbsp;and the University of California, Berkeley’s Sky Computing Lab, has proven particularly popular and has built AI leaderboards by asking visitors to compare responses from two anonymous AI models and vote which one is best.</p>



<p>Its scoreboards rank more than 100 AI models based on nearly 1.5 million human votes so far, covering an array of categories including long queries, coding, instruction following, maths, “hard prompts” and a variety of languages including English, French, Chinese, Japanese and Korean.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-s-the-best-ai-model-on-chatbot-arena">WHAT’S THE BEST AI MODEL ON CHATBOT ARENA?</h2>



<p>The top five AI models on Chatbot Arena’s overall leaderboard are:</p>



<ol>
<li>GPT-4o</li>



<li>Claude 3.5 Sonnet</li>



<li>Gemini Advanced</li>



<li>Gemini 1.5 Pro</li>



<li>GPT-4 Turbo</li>
</ol>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-to-watch-for">WHAT TO WATCH FOR</h2>



<p>Figuring out how to evaluate AI models is set to become increasingly important as more AI tools are rolled out and adopted across society. While benchmarks are important, Vanessa Parli, director of research at Stanford University’s Institute for Human-Centered AI, told Forbes they are also important as “goals for researchers to hit when developing models.” It is important to remember that “not all human capabilities are quantifiable” in a way that we can accurately measure but are nonetheless desirable to have in AI models, Parli said. There is also a clear need for benchmarks to assess traits like “bias, toxicity, truthfulness and other responsibility aspects,” especially for organizations dealing with sensitive information like healthcare companies, Parli said.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-crucial-quote">CRUCIAL QUOTE</h2>



<p>“The benchmarks aren’t perfect, but as of right now, that’s the primary mechanism we have to evaluate the models,” Parli told Forbes, cautioning that “researchers can somewhat easily game the system” today, with AI models quickly saturating benchmarks. “I think we need to get creative in the development of new ways to evaluate AI models,” Parli said. “</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-we-don-t-know">WHAT WE DON’T KNOW</h2>



<p>Measuring intelligence is tricky when we do not know what it is we are supposed to be measuring. There is no universally accepted definition of intelligence in humans, let alone a way to measure it, and the possibility, nature and scope of animal intelligence has divided scientists for centuries. While AI benchmarks have typically focused on the ability to perform a particular task, more general assessments will be required in the near future as researchers make progress towards their goal of creating artificial general intelligence (AGI). AGI is capable of excelling and possibly matching humans across a broad set of domains rather than at just one task such as walking, moving boxes, identifying tumors on scans and playing chess.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-how-useful-is-chatbot-arena-for-evaluating-ai-models">HOW USEFUL IS CHATBOT ARENA FOR EVALUATING AI MODELS?</h2>



<p>“The rankings [Chatbot Arena] gives are something that I trust more than most other rankings,” Dodge told Forbes, “because it uses a real human to say whether they prefer one generation over another.” Parli suggested assessments like Chatbot Arena could “implicitly evaluate factors” we want in our AI but are less quantifiable than something like coding ability. But she did stress that something like Chatbot Arena should not be the only evaluation method used, saying there are “many factors that should be important to organizations when evaluating models” and it “does not cover all of them.”</p>



<p>.</p>


Einstein And Musk Chatbots Are Driving Millions To Download Character.AI

What AI Is The Best? Chatbot Arena Relies On Millions Of Human Votes


<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-topline">TOPLINE</h2>



<p>Women diagnosed with endometriosis may have a “markedly increased” risk of developing ovarian cancer compared to women without the disease, according to a <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2821194?guestAccessKey=9570cb60-051f-4c10-9a64-0fe9e9fe6ad1&amp;utm_source=For_The_Media&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=ftm_links&amp;utm_content=tfl&amp;utm_term=071724" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">study</a> published Wednesday in the JAMA Network, following years of speculation about whether the two diseases are linked.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">KEY FACTS</h2>



<p>Endometriosis, a disease causing tissue from inside the uterus to grow outside of the uterus, is associated with a four-times higher risk of ovarian cancer and a seven-times higher risk of developing a mild form of the cancer, according to the&nbsp;<a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2821194?guestAccessKey=9570cb60-051f-4c10-9a64-0fe9e9fe6ad1&amp;utm_source=For_The_Media&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=ftm_links&amp;utm_content=tfl&amp;utm_term=071724" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">study</a>, which analyzed health data on nearly 500,000 women in Utah age 18 to 55.</p>



<p>Women who have severe forms of endometriosis have a 9.7 times higher risk, researchers suggested.</p>



<p>The risks have likely been underestimated because the data did not include whether the women were using oral contraceptives like birth control, which researchers said has been linked with a lower risk of ovarian cancer.</p>



<p>Additional prevention studies are necessary to better determine the link between endometriosis and ovarian cancer, researchers said, adding women with endometriosis could be an “important population” for cancer screening.</p>



<p>190 million. That’s how many women are affected by endometriosis globally, though that number is likely higher because access to diagnosis is limited in low-income regions, <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/endometriosis" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">according</a> to the World Health Organization. The disease can result in infertility or “severe, life-impacting” pain during periods, in addition to chronic pelvic pain, abdominal bloating and fatigue, the organization said. The cause of endometriosis is unknown and there is no cure, though some treatments like hormonal medicines are often prescribed to mitigate pain.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">KEY BACKGROUND</h2>



<p>Researchers have studied a possible link between endometriosis and ovarian cancer for years. In 2017, a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5563086/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">study</a>&nbsp;found up to 19% of cases of a form of ovarian cancer were associated with endometriosis, including an increased risk among younger women. Another study in 2020&nbsp;<a href="https://academic.oup.com/humupd/article/27/2/393/5986656?login=false" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">indicated</a>&nbsp;endometriosis was associated with a higher risk of ovarian and thyroid cancers, in addition to a minimal risk of breast and cervical cancer. Researchers from the University of Queensland in Australia released a&nbsp;<a href="https://imb.uq.edu.au/article/2022/03/endometriosis-and-ovarian-cancer-genetically-tied" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">study</a>&nbsp;in 2022 suggesting endometriosis and ovarian cancer were genetically linked, meaning women who have the disease could also have “genetic markers” for developing ovarian cancer.</p>


Aerial view of the hands of a scientist pouring fluid with the pipette into a petri dish in a laboratory with a green atmosphere.

Women With Endometriosis Face ‘Markedly Increased’ Risk Of Ovarian Cancer, Study Suggests


<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-topline">TOPLINE</h2>



<p>Apple tallied yet another all-time high share price Monday after a pair of investment firms meaningfully hiked their price targets for the stock, the latest positive push for Apple stock ahead of the hotly anticipated release of generative artificial intelligence iPhones.<strong></strong></p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h2>



<p>Apple stock rose as much as 2.9% to a new intraday peak of $237.23 in Monday trading, with its over $234 share price by mid-afternoon on pace to top last week’s record close of $232.98, growing Apple’s market capitalization to a world record $3.59 trillion, more than $200 billion higher than the next largest company, Microsoft at $3.36 trillion.</p>



<p>The lift came after Bloomberg&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-15/apple-sales-in-india-surge-33-to-8-billion-as-chinese-market-slows" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">reported</a>&nbsp;33% year-over-year growth in Apple’s India sales, a strong indication of the company’s global growth potential amid questions about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/05/02/apple-earnings-come-in-hot-as-china-blow-less-painful-than-feared/">declining</a>&nbsp;sales in its key China segment, as well as bullish notes from analysts at Loop Capital and Morgan Stanley musing on Apple’s earnings potential as its debut of its first AI iPhones is just months away.</p>



<p>Loop Capital analysts led by Ananda Baruah changed their recommendation for Apple stock from a hold to a buy, upping its share price target from $231 to $300, the highest of any analyst tracked by FactSet, implying an Apple fair market value of $4.6 trillion, some 28% higher than it now stands.</p>



<p>The firm said it sees an opportunity for Apple to distinguish itself as the “Gen AI base camp of choice,” likening it to how Apple benefited from the initial release of the iPod and iPhones in capturing consumers’ attention and capital over the last two decades.</p>



<p>The Erik Woodring-led Morgan Stanley group named Apple its favorite U.S. IT hardware pick and hiked their target from $213 to $273, implying 16% upside and a $4.2 trillion market cap.</p>



<p>Morgan Stanley similarly upgraded expectations for the “impending” iPhone upgrade cycle, projecting some 498 million new iPhone sales in its 2025 and 2026 fiscal years and $488 billion worth of iPhone revenues during that time frame, a 22% increase from the $399 billion Apple is projected to bring in during its 2023 and 2024 fiscal years ending in September.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-crucial-quote">CRUCIAL QUOTE</h2>



<p>“Never in Apple&#8217;s 40-year history has the iPhone installed base been so large (1.3b+ devices), replacement cycles been so extended (at 4.8 years), and a new technology been limited to such a small cohort of users (8% of the iPhone/iPad installed base) all at the same time,” declared Woodring.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h2>



<p>After years of speculation, Apple officially&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/06/10/apple-finally-unveils-iphone-ai-features-the-next-big-step/">announced</a>&nbsp;its “Apple Intelligence” generative AI plans on June 10, including the integration of the hit ChatGPT chatbot into the iOS operating system scheduled for a September release. Apple stock is up more than 20% since that announcement, outgaining the S&amp;P 500’s 5% gain as investors&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/06/11/apple-stock-hits-all-time-high-minting-200-billion-ai-rally/">bought into</a>&nbsp;the company’s AI vision (the stock had lagged other big tech names like Microsoft due to a perceived deficit in the AI arms race). Apple, which had been the world’s largest company for most of the last decade,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/06/12/apple-reclaims-crown-as-worlds-most-valuable-company-from-microsoft/">overtook</a>&nbsp;Microsoft as the largest company in the world last month, having lost the title from January to June.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-to-watch-for">WHAT TO WATCH FOR</h2>



<p>Don’t expect evidence of an iPhone renaissance in Apple’s earnings report due Aug. 1: Analyst forecasts call for the weakest quarterly iPhone sales since 2020’s quarter ending in September, according to FactSet, at $38.7 billion. Consensus forecasts call for a record $72.4 billion of iPhone revenues this holiday quarter, though.</p>


Apple Store in Shanghai, China

Apple Stock Hits Record High On AI iPhone Anticipation — As Analysts Predict $5 Trillion Valuation


<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-topline">TOPLINE</h2>



<p>An assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump has led to increased calls for protection of presidential candidates, an investigation into the Secret Service’s rigor and pleas from leaders on both sides—including President Biden, during a Sunday Oval Office address—to abandon vicious partisan rhetoric, as many questions about the shooting remains.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">KEY FACTS</h2>



<p>Trump, 78, was shot shortly after 6 p.m. Saturday when a lone gunman fired several shots from the roof of a building outside his campaign rally, grazing the former president, killing a supporter and seriously injuring two other rally attendees before the shooter was killed by Secret Service agents.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">HOW BADLY INJURED WAS DONALD TRUMP?</h2>



<p>A bullet &#8220;pierced&#8221; the top of Trump’s right ear, he said late Saturday, and photos showed the top of his ear bloodied with streaks of blood on the right side of his face. Secret Service spokesperson Anthony Guglielmi was quick to confirm the former president was “safe” after the shooting. Trump was taken to <a href="https://www.chiefhealthcareexecutive.com/view/donald-trump-victims-treated-at-hospitals-after-shooting-at-pa-rally" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Butler Memorial Hospital</a> for evaluation and was released before flying to New Jersey overnight. <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/possible-shots-fired-at-trump-rally-in-butler-pennsylvania/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Donald Trump Jr.</a> shortly after the shooting said his father was &#8220;doing fine.&#8221; Trump&#8217;s former White House doctor, Rep. Ronny Jackson, R-Texas, flew to New Jersey on Sunday morning and told The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/us/politics/trump-chart-rally.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">New York Times</a> that Trump “wasn’t the least bit flustered.”</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">WHO WAS THOMAS MATTHEW CROOKS, THE APPARENT SHOOTER?</h2>



<p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2024/07/14/explosive-materials-found-in-car-of-suspected-trump-shooter/">Crooks</a>, 20, was a registered Republican with no criminal history, according to The New York Times. He graduated from Bethel Park High School, about an hour from the rally site in Butler, Pennsylvania, in 2022 and worked as a dietary aid for a local nursing and rehabilitation center. No motive has been identified by law enforcement officials, and President Joe Biden on Sunday asked the public to “not make assumptions.” The FBI&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2024/07/14/fbi-believes-trump-rally-shooter-acted-alone-what-we-know-about-thomas-matthew-crooks/">on Sunday said</a>&nbsp;Crooks is believed to have acted alone, and is treating the matter as a potential case of domestic terrorism.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">WHO WAS COREY COMPERATORE, THE MAN KILLED AT THE TRUMP RALLY?</h2>



<p><a href="https://www.post-gazette.com/news/crime-courts/2024/07/14/trump-rally-shooting-victim-corey-comperatore/stories/202407140134" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Comperatore</a>, a father and husband, was shot and killed at Trump&#8217;s rally Sunday. He was a 50-year-old former volunteer fire chief and father of two daughters whose family said he died while shielding his wife and daughter from the gunfire. Dawn Comperatore Schafer, Comperatore&#8217;s sister, told The&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/us/corey-comperatore-trump-shooting-victim.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">New York Times</a>&nbsp;his family found out about his death through the news. He was remembered as a &#8220;family man&#8221; who loved to fish and was hailed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/corey-died-a-hero-gov-shapiro-remembers-man-killed-at-trump-rally/3911570/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Gov. Josh Shapiro</a>&nbsp;of Pennsylvania, a Democrat, as &#8220;the very best of us.&#8221;</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE OTHERS INJURED AT THE RALLY?</h2>



<p>The two people who were seriously injured were in critical but stable condition as of Sunday afternoon. They were identified by local police as David Dutch, 57, of New Kensington, Pennsylvania, and James Copenhaver, 74, of Moon Township, Pennsylvania. They are being treated at Allegheny General Hospital in Pittsburgh. Jackson <a href="https://x.com/RonnyJacksonTX/status/1812331180072562923" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">tweeted</a> Saturday that his nephew was among those with minor injuries and told <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/video/6357911478112" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Fox News</a> a bullet grazed his nephew’s neck at the rally. Jackson said his nephew is doing well.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">HOW COULD THE TRUMP SHOOTING HAVE HAPPENED?</h2>



<p>The Secret Service shot Crooks on top of a manufacturing plant north of the Butler Farm Show grounds, where the rally was held. The roof was fewer than 200 yards from where Trump was speaking, the&nbsp;<a href="https://apnews.com/article/secret-service-trump-rally-4e3415b1461f5acefbc8e1fadad0375b" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Associated Press&nbsp;</a>reported, and calls for an investigation into how a gunman could have gotten so close have been echoed from both sides. The Secret Service has not commented on the circumstances of the shooting&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/SecretSvcSpox/status/1812288378596982908" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">other than to say</a>&nbsp;it is investigating the incident. Anthony Guglielmi, spokesperson for the Secret Service, said the agency added &#8220;protective resources, technology and capabilities&#8221; to the Trump campaign ahead of the shooting. Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/kylemullins/2024/07/14/the-secret-service-has-access-to-more-money-than-ever/">has been called</a>&nbsp;to testify before the House Oversight Committee on July 22. The Secret Service has an operating budget of $3 billion.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">WHAT FALSE INFORMATION HAS BEEN SPREADING ONLINE?</h2>



<p>Videos were posted on TikTok, X, Instagram, Facebook, YouTube and other social media platforms Sunday of a person&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandralevine/2024/07/14/fake-videos-purporting-to-be-dead-trump-shooter-are-spreading-on-social-media/">falsely claiming</a>&nbsp;to be the Trump shooting suspect and speculating on his motives, which Biden on Sunday said are still unclear. BBC Verify, which combats misinformation online, has said the man in the videos and photos is not the shooter. Other false posts, including one said to be written by a Secret Service agent who was ordered not to fire on Crooks, have also been circulating since the shooting. There is no evidence an actual Secret Service agent penned the post. Conspiracy theories and other unverified claims spread quickly in the wake of Trump&#8217;s assassinaton attempt, including those blaming the so-called deep state for the attack.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">WHAT HAS TRUMP SAID ABOUT THE SHOOTING?</h2>



<p>Trump took to&nbsp;<a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Truth Social</a>&nbsp;on Saturday night and again Sunday morning to thank the Secret Service for its response and express condolences to the victims and the family of the man killed. He called on his supporters to &#8220;remain resilient in our Faith and Defiant in the face of Wickedness&#8221; and confirmed he would be appearing and speaking as scheduled at this week&#8217;s Republican National Convention. His latest post, which went up at around 3 p.m., said &#8220;UNITE AMERICA!&#8221;</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">WHAT HAS BIDEN SAID ABOUT THE SHOOTING?</h2>



<p>The president first addressed the nation Saturday night, calling the attack “sick” and saying, “There&#8217;s no place in America for this kind of violence.” He echoed those comments&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2024/07/14/trump-assassination-attempt-biden-says-no-information-on-motive-calls-for-independent-investigation-into-rally-shooting-live-updates/">in a short speech</a>&nbsp;from the White House on Sunday afternoon in which he said “there is no place in America for this kind of violence or any violence for that matter. An assassination attempt is against everything we stand for as a nation… We cannot allow this to happen.” Biden ordered an independent review of the shooting to determine how it was possible for a lone gunman to fire shots at a presidential candidate. He said the results of that investigation will be released to the public. Biden addressed the nation again Sunday night and said it was time to “lower the temperature in our politics.” He spoke from the Oval Office later on Sunday and said Americans should express their opinions “at the ballot box, not with bullets,” and added there is “no place in America for this kind of violence. For any violence, ever. Period. No Exceptions.”</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">WHAT DOES THE TRUMP ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT MEAN FOR THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION?</h2>



<p>The convention, set to start Monday in Wisconsin, is expected to proceed as scheduled. Trump on Sunday&nbsp;<a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112786183121187515" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">said</a>&nbsp;he’d considered delaying his trip to Milwaukee by two days but ultimately stuck to the original schedule and left at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday. Trump is expected to formally accept the Republican nomination for president at the convention and announce his vice presidential pick.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2024/07/14/trump-calls-for-unity-suggests-hell-speak-at-republican-convention-after-assassination-attempt/">Other speakers</a>&nbsp;for the convention include former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. Vance, Rubio, Scott and Burgum are considered the top contenders for Trump’s running mate pick. Biden said he’s directed the head of the Secret Service to review “all security measures” for the convention. The Democratic National Convention is scheduled for mid August.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">WHAT WILL TRUMP SAY AT THE CONVENTION</h2>



<p>Trump told the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/presidential/3082180/trump-rewrites-republican-convention-speech-focus-unity-not-biden/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Washington Examiner</a>&nbsp;he has scrapped the original speech he intended to deliver at the Republican National Convention. “The speech I was going to give on Thursday was going to be a humdinger&#8230;Had this not happened, this would’ve been one of the most incredible speeches” he told the outlet. That would have focused more on Biden and his policies. However, the former president said he now to intends to focus his speech on calling for unity. “This is a chance to bring the whole country, even the whole world, together. The speech will be a lot different, a lot different than it would’ve been two days ago.”</p>


Donald Trump Injured During Shooting At Campaign Rally In Butler, PA

What We Know About The Attempted Assassination Of Donald Trump


<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-topline">TOPLINE</h2>



<p>Former President Donald Trump was escorted off stage by Secret Service during an incident at a Pennsylvania rally Saturday that left him bloodied—and one rally attendee and the alleged shooter are <a href="https://apnews.com/live/election-biden-trump-campaign-updates-07-13-2024#00000190-ae66-dc4e-ab9d-ae6e88490000" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">both dead</a>—though Trump’s campaign has said the former president is fine.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">KEY FACTS</h2>



<p>The rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, was interrupted by what were apparently gunshots sent Trump and members of the crowd ducking as the former president was surrounded and rushed off stage by several Secret Service agents.</p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2161922590.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-62410" style="width:730px;height:auto" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2161922590.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2161922590-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2161922590-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Secret Service Donald Trump onstage at a rally. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)</figcaption></figure></div>


<p>Trump pumped his fist in the air multiple times while being escorted off stage before he was rushed into a vehicle.</p>



<p>Secret Service spokesperson Anthony Guglielmi <a href="https://x.com/SecretSvcSpox/status/1812256378616201726" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">tweeted</a> Trump is safe following the incident and that an investigation is underway, adding in a <a href="https://x.com/SecretSvcSpox/status/1812288378596982908" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">follow up statement</a> that one spectator was killed and two were critically injured.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="BREAKING NEWS: Shots Fired At Trump Rally, Former President Pumps Fist As He&#039;s Rushed Off Stage" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XL3D0h5j0Lo?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div></figure>



<p>Trump’s campaign said the former president is fine and “being checked out at a local medical facility.”</p>



<p>Trump said in a&nbsp;<a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112782066045321247" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Truth Social post</a>&nbsp;a bullet pierced his upper right ear and noted he knew something was wrong when “he heard a whizzing sound, shots, and immediately felt the bullet ripping through the skin.”</p>



<p>A Washington Post reporter&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/merylkornfield/status/1812263916497506711?s=46&amp;t=tLA9t1ZxaftGRgOfBId-2A" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">posted on X</a>—and The Associate Press&nbsp;<a href="https://apnews.com/live/election-biden-trump-campaign-updates-07-13-2024" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">confirmed</a>—that the local district attorney says “Trump was grazed by gunfire but is safe” but that an “audience member was killed and the shooter is dead” and another person remains in serious condition.</p>



<p>The shooter was located outside the rally and killed by the Secret Service, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://apnews.com/live/election-biden-trump-campaign-updates-07-13-2024#00000190-ae84-d267-ab98-aee683c30000" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">the AP</a>, which&nbsp;<a href="https://apnews.com/live/election-biden-trump-campaign-updates-07-13-2024#00000190-aed8-dc4e-ab9d-aefe75c60000" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">noted</a>&nbsp;an AR-style rifle was recovered at the scene of the shooting by law enforcement.</p>



<p>An&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/JakeMRosen/status/1812264826498081212" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">emergency room doctor</a>&nbsp;attending the rally told a CBS News reporter he tried to save someone in the crowd who was shot in the head during the incident.</p>



<p>President Joe Biden was briefed on the incident and said in a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/07/13/statement-from-president-joe-biden-6/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">statement</a>&nbsp;he is “grateful” to hear Trump is safe, adding, “There’s no place for this kind of violence in America.”</p>



<p>Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, considered a possible Trump running mate, seemed to direct blame for the shooting at the Biden campaign, <a href="https://x.com/JDVance1/status/1812280973628965109" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">tweeting</a> the &#8220;central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump&#8217;s attempted assassination.&#8221;</p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2161922001.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-62409" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2161922001.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2161922001-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2161922001-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Donald Trump is rushed offstage during a rally. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)</figcaption></figure></div>


<h2 class="wp-block-heading">WAS IT AN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT ON TRUMP?</h2>



<p>It certainly appears so, as Goldinger told CNN the shooter was outside the rally and “several hundred yards away.” When asked if he believed it was an assassination attempt, President Biden said prior to Goldinger’s statement, &#8220;I have an opinion, but I don’t have any facts, so I want to make sure we have all the facts before I make any more comments.” According to the Associated Press, top Trump campaign adviser Chris LaCivita hinted at some larger conspiracy by writing on X, “well of course they tried too keep him off the ballot , they tried to put him in jail and now you see this …,” but then deleted his post.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">CRUCIAL QUOTE</h2>



<p>“President Trump thanks law enforcement and first responders for their quick action during this heinous act. He is fine and is being checked out at a local medical facility. More details will follow,” Trump spokesman Steven Cheung said in a statement.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery <a href="https://t.co/ZdxkF63EqF">pic.twitter.com/ZdxkF63EqF</a></p>&mdash; Elon Musk (@elonmusk) <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1812256998588662068?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 13, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Political violence is terrifying. I know.<br><br>I’m holding former President Trump, and all those affected by today’s indefensible act of violence in my heart. Political violence is un-American and is never acceptable—never.</p>&mdash; Gabrielle Giffords (@GabbyGiffords) <a href="https://twitter.com/GabbyGiffords/status/1812266601053405691?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 13, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">There is absolutely no place for political violence in our democracy. Although we don’t yet know exactly what happened, we should all be relieved that former President Trump wasn’t seriously hurt, and use this moment to recommit ourselves to civility and respect in our politics.…</p>&mdash; Barack Obama (@BarackObama) <a href="https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1812271849893442018?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 13, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>


Bloodied Trump Rushed Off Stage After Shooting—1 Bystander And Alleged Shooter Dead


<p><strong>A randomized controlled trial published in the leading academic journal Nature finds two days of working from home improved job satisfaction and reduced turnover when compared to those working in offices five days a week.</strong></p>



<p>The long-simmering debate over whether remote work hurts productivity or dampens worker performance has reached the peak of academic prestige: A study in the journal&nbsp;<em>Nature.</em></p>



<p>Leaders eager to get workers back to the office often&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jenamcgregor/2023/08/19/the-war-over-work-from-home-the-data-ceos-and-workers-need-to-know/">believe</a>&nbsp;it leads to things like lower worker output and an erosion of workplace culture. But a new&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07500-2" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">paper to be published Wednesday</a>&nbsp;in the leading academic journal by Stanford University economist Nicholas Bloom and his co-authors suggests new evidence for advantages to hybrid schedules. A randomized controlled trial of employees in a tech firm based in China found that two days of work from home and three days in the office reduced quit rates, improved job satisfaction and had no impact on performance, when compared with employees who worked full-time in the office.</p>



<p>“Everyone’s heard of&nbsp;<em>Nature</em>,” says Bloom. If you’re talking about flexible work arrangements with a CEO who wants people back full time, “having a large, randomized controlled trial—they can still ignore it, but it gets a lot harder.”</p>



<p>The study randomly divided 1,612 workers at Trip.com, a large global travel firm, by whether they had even or odd birthdates. One group was able to work from home on Wednesdays and Fridays; the other worked in the office all five days. The researchers found that for those with hybrid schedules, attrition rates dropped by one-third over the six-month experiment period—and were even greater for non-managers, female employees and those with long commutes—while work satisfaction scores improved. The hybrid group also did not have significant differences on performance reviews or promotion rates, even for up to two years after the start of the experiment, and there were not significant differences in the lines of code submitted by the software engineers between the two groups.</p>



<p>That trial method—a real-life experiment on two employee groups randomly split by nothing other than birthdate—allowed the researchers to conclude it was the hybrid work schedule that caused the improvements in retention and job satisfaction, Bloom says, rather than simply being coincidental to other factors. “In many studies you don’t [have that],” Bloom says. “There are no differences between people born on even and odd birthdays.”</p>



<p>The study did not look specifically at workers who are full-time remote, or at arrangements where employees have personal choice over where and when they work, which remains a priority for many workers. That debate will likely continue. But the current study offers additional evidence to support the value of employees getting to work from home at least part of the time as opposed to full-time in the office.</p>



<p>In the paper, Bloom and his co-authors note that some may wonder if a possible explanation for the reduced turnover in the hybrid work group is that members of the full-time office group were frustrated they didn’t get the flexible schedule during the experiment. However, turnover rates for full-time office workers were slightly reduced from the six-month period before the experiment, the researchers write in the paper, suggesting that some may have “guessed (correctly) that the policy would be rolled out to all employees once the experiment ended.”</p>



<p>Another effect: The study found that managers at the company shifted their views of hybrid work over the experiment period. Before it started, managers at the company perceived that hybrid work would reduce productivity by 2.6%; by its close, they believed flexible arrangements could improve productivity by 1%. “There is value in experimentation,” the study authors write.</p>



<p>The paper follows months of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jenamcgregor/2023/08/19/the-war-over-work-from-home-the-data-ceos-and-workers-need-to-know/">debate</a>&nbsp;over the impact of remote work on company culture, employee productivity and potential downsides to innovation or collaboration. Bloom, who has studied remote work for decades, prompted a stir last year when a&nbsp;<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kqbngD8pemqxAkZmWCOQ32Yk6PXK9eVA/view" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">working paper</a>&nbsp;that reviewed existing studies on the topic pointed to research showing that fully remote workforces appeared to have slightly reduced productivity on average. But the studies also showed that when the work schedule was well-managed and hybrid at least some of the time, the effect was flat or slightly positive, Bloom&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jenamcgregor/2023/08/19/the-war-over-work-from-home-the-data-ceos-and-workers-need-to-know/">told&nbsp;<em>Forbes</em>&nbsp;at the time</a>.</p>



<p>Indeed, an early paper by Bloom looked at the same company, Trip.com (one of its co-founders,&nbsp;<a href="https://investors.trip.com/board-member/james-jianzhang-liang" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">James Liang</a>, is a co-author and former PhD student of Bloom’s).&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/working-papers/does-working-home-work-evidence-chinese-experiment" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">It found</a>&nbsp;that among a group of remote call center agents who worked in person just one day a week, productivity increased 13% and turnover fell by half.</p>



<p>The newer study looked at workers in fields like marketing, software engineering, finance and accounting, helping to address concerns that past studies on lower-paid employees doing repetitive tasks with more objective measurements may not be generalizable to the workforce at large. “These are creatives, they’re in graduate or professional jobs, and they’re innovating, creating, training,” Bloom says of participants in the current study.</p>



<p>Trip.com, Bloom says, was seeking a way to reduce costs in doing the experiment, estimating that each employee who quit cost the company $20,000 in recruiting and training, the paper reports. As a result of the study, the company decided to extend the hybrid policy to all employees.</p>



<p>“There are good and bad things about working from home, but it turns out with hybrid they roughly net each other out,” says Bloom. “Employees were dramatically happier if they get to work from home two days a week, and as a result their quit rates fell by a third. &#8230; The company looked at this and said, ‘what’s not to like?’ ”</p>


A unrecognisable woman works from home. Besides her is a delicious slice of Sticky Toffee Pudding. Naughty but nice!

This New Hybrid Work Study Could Help Reconcile The War Over Work From Home


<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-topline">TOPLINE</h2>



<p>Price increases are headed for <a href="https://support.xbox.com/en-US/help/subscriptions-billing/manage-subscriptions/game-pass-updates-july-2024" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Xbox Game Pass</a> users alongside the inclusion of a new tier for the subscription service, creating key price differences between Xbox and rival gaming platform PlayStation that mark the latest price hike amid <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2024/06/03/spotify-shares-jump-5-ahead-of-subscription-price-hikes/">increasingly</a> <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2023/10/25/apple-tv-price-rises-from-699-to-999-in-latest-streaming-rate-increase/#:~:text=Tech%20giant%20Apple%20raised%20the,family%20package%20and%20%2432.95%20to">expensive</a> <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2024/01/25/netflix-is-raising-prices-in-the-most-cynical-way-and-its-only-going-to-get-worse/">subscription</a> plans within the entertainment industry.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">KEY FACTS</h2>



<p>Xbox Game Pass, which allows users to play online and gives varying levels of deals, discounts and video game downloads, will have price increases for its most expensive “ultimate” tier, its cheapest “core” tier and for its PC Game Pass starting Wednesday for new subscribers and in September for existing subscribers, according to a company&nbsp;<a href="https://support.xbox.com/en-US/help/subscriptions-billing/manage-subscriptions/game-pass-updates-july-2024" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">blog post</a>.</p>



<p>Xbox Game Pass Ultimate’s monthly price will jump from $16.99 a month to $19.99 a month, PC Game Pass will increase from $9.99 to $11.99 and Xbox Game Pass Core will stay at $9.99 monthly but rise from $59.99 to $74.99 a year for annual plans, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theverge.com/2024/7/9/24195312/microsoft-xbox-game-pass-ultimate-price-increase-standard-subscription" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">multiple</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://fortune.com/2024/07/10/microsoft-game-pass-price-increase-changes/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">outlets</a>.</p>



<p>A new middle tier, Xbox Game Pass Standard, will be available to players in the near future at $14.99 per month, though it will not include access to day-one titles—the ability to pre-install select video games and play them the day they release without having to outright purchase them.</p>



<p>PlayStation Plus Premium, the $17.99 per month PlayStation equivalent to Xbox Game Pass Ultimate, will be the cheaper of the two subscription services following the price increase, securing a $2 per month advantage over Xbox’s most expensive tier.</p>



<p>The middle- and low-tier subscription plans for Xbox Game Pass and PlayStation Plus will cost the same for players.</p>



<p>Existing users on the ​​Xbox Game Pass for Console plan, which is essentially being replaced by the new, $14.99 a month standard tier, will be able to keep their $11 a month subscription and access to day-one games.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">TANGENT</h2>



<p>Users on X, formerly known as Twitter, have <a href="https://x.com/Doctor_Cupcakes/status/1810822847977181497" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">taken</a> <a href="https://x.com/Serrels/status/1810883333909307440" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">issue</a> with the price increases and changes to the Xbox Game Pass tier system, specifically criticizing Microsoft for <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2024/07/10/microsoft-is-crippling-the-concept-of-xbox-game-pass-with-new-day-one-launch-restrictions/">removing day-one games</a> from its middle tier and making subscription changes before the release of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 in October, which will be available to play as a day-one title. The highly anticipated first-person shooter will be available as a day-one title for PC Game Pass users, existing users of Xbox Game Pass for Console and those willing to fork over the updated $19.99 a month for Xbox Game Pass Ultimate. New users on Xbox Game Pass Core and the upcoming Xbox Game Pass Standard will <a href="https://x.com/tomwarren/status/1810813118471172303" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">not have access to day-one titles</a>, but day-one titles like Black Ops 6 and exclusive Xbox games could serve as an incentive for upgrading to Ultimate despite the price hike.</p>


Author: Forbes

FORBES AFRICA SOCIAL MEDIA