Donald Trump 2.0.
An unprecedented but not entirely unexpected return to power.
Landmark achievements in every sense – popular vote, Senate and a likely Congress majority to boot.
A transactional president buoyed by America’s richest to deliver on a self-inflicted beleaguered country. Or not. But narratives matter. The electorate believes.
For an avowed ‘make America great again’ supremo, he comes to power in a deeply-polarized country and a striferidden fractured global order gasping for leadership and equity.
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Quo Vadis Africa in all this?
Gallup polls regularly show China’s undoubted popularity edge in Africa; for decades.
Enhanced Russian engagements (though as yet a fraction of that of the U.S. and China) militarily and politically cast their own shadow.
The U.S. policy on Africa continues to make teenage love affairs look like mature relationships. It’s admittedly not easy to solve the ‘trilemma’: defend democracy, ensure security and extend geopolitical influence. Aid and textbooks in hand, flip-flops on and cheque books tucked away.
That is however the enduring American visual on the continent today. The outgoing administration could neither change that view, nor do anything meaningful to stamp its intent.
Even in the new gold rush (read critical minerals), Uncle Sam has floundered to tie policy to politics to projects, pronouncements notwithstanding. Enter the new administration of 2025. It’s unlikely Africa will be a sensible policy priority.
During his last administration, Trump had referred to African nations as “shithole countries”. Close allies were hit with travel bans. Eritrea, Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan and Tanzania were among 13 countries on the list when he left office.
“Keep your friends close and your enemies closer,” the Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu has said.
Africa needs to be mindful of this advice.
Tough choices abound for the continent. Its demography, its politics, its economies, all need help from all to make it a collaborative development.
It hardly has the luxury of choice as to ‘with whom’. Yet, the biggest risk remains in being forced to choose.
An ancient African proverb says that “when elephants fight, it’s the grass that suffers”. And boy, have we suffered!
Today, the Bretton Woods Institutions are facing challenges from a resurgent BRICS+.
The European Union is still Africa’s largest trading partner, albeit skewed around primary goods with no real benefaction. China is a close second but also the biggest investor by far.
America’s commercial interests in Africa must deepen. Not sure when though.
Japan, apart from its octopus imports, is a significant t ade and investment partner.
And finally, enter India. Building on its historic links and feeding its emerging power status with more trade, investment and cultural power.
If I was an African leader, I would be salivating at my choices.
Yet, we are stressed.
An American President had once said: “You are either with us or against us.”
The only thing we should work and pray for therefore is that Trump 2.0 does not descend to that.
Any conscious, coherent and collaborative strategy is of course to be looked forward to.
And yes to partnerships.
But no sticks without carrots please.
“If you can’t help, at least don’t hurt them,” the Dalai Lama has said.
I am afraid within the current world order, that’s the best one can aspire for.
Leave us alone to our destiny and let’s remain purely and simply transactional.
Let mutual needs guide our progress in Africa, not geopolitics and rhetoric.
That in a nutshell is as ambitious as one can be. And finally, to re-quote Indian poet Rabindranath Tagore: “Into that heaven of freedom, let the African continent awake.”
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