Navigating the complexities of our future is big business – and big money. Here are some of the more eminent global futurists offering fresh insights into future tech and a better tomorrow.
At the South by Southwest (SXSW) festival in Austin, Texas, there’s one particular session where people start queueing around four in the morning to get a seat. It’s not one of the big-name music performances or a movie screening with awards buzz, it’s a keynote by Amy Webb.
Webb, who is the founder and CEO of the Future Today Institute (FTI), is a futurist. She’s a professor of strategic foresight, a data and research-driven field that unpacks what could be in an increasingly complex world. Webb’s 2024 Tech Trends Report, which is downloaded more than a million times every year, is made up of just under a thou- sand pages of insights businesses rely on to navigate the future.
IN HER TALK AT SXSW, AMY WEBB SAID THAT THE NEXT STAGE OF AI IS MERGING DIGITAL SUPERCOMPUTERS WITH HUMAN TISSUE. THIS IS SOMETHING WEBB REFERS TO AS ORGANOID INTELLIGENCE, OR O-AI. SHE PREDICTS THAT BY 2039, O-AI WILL BECOME THE FOREFRONT OF COMPUTATIONAL EVOLUTION, MERGING HUMAN-LIKE DECISION-MAKING CAPABILITIES WITH THE SPEED OF TRADITIONAL COMPUTERS. IN SIMPLE TERMS, WEBB SAYS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE BIOCOMPUTERS OUT OF HUMAN BRAIN CELLS – WE WILL GROW COMPUTERS RATHER THAN BUILD THEM.
Predicting what comes next may be big business but it’s not necessarily new. While modern futurists use data to forecast pos- sible future scenarios and spot emerging opportunities, the science of probability – long-term planning – has been around since the 1940s. And before futurology became an academic field and job role, science fiction authors like H.G. Wells, Jules Verne and Arthur C. Clarke, were recognized as futurists with an uncanny ability to foresee the world to come. Today, there are a number of well-known futurists sought out by industry giants (and the government) to steer business strategy and adapt to disruptive change. Businesses are hiring futurists to tell them the things they don’t want to hear so that they can prepare for unfore- seen inevitabilities.
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Meet the futurists
As the founder of Singularity University and the XPRIZE Foundation, Peter Diamandis is a Silicon Valley digital futurist and engineer who has started over 25 companies. Now in his 60s, Diamandis (whose net worth has been reported to be around $200 million) has many innova- tive projects underway. While tickets to attend his membership-only Abundance Summit begin at $10,000, Diamandis is attempting to change the world with his large-scale XPRIZE competitions that tackle domains like climate, space, biodiversity and deep tech. According to the Key Speakers Bureau, Diamandis’ speaking fee starts at $60,000 – and that’s for a virtual, not in-person, appearance.
As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes more and more popular, there’s a good chance that futurist Ray Kurzweil will be mentioned. Kurzweil, who has received 20 honorary doctorates is a computer scientist and futurist with a 30-year track record of accurate predic- tions – his written predictions, of which there are 147, have an 86% accuracy rate. Kurzweil’s first predictions around AI came out in 1999 and while many people felt that his views were radical when he said that computers would be as intelligent as humans, his estimated date of 2029 doesn’t seem so far off. Kurzweil’s net worth is reportedly around $30 million, most of which comes from the four companies he success- fully founded based on his research and academic prizes. One of his boldest predictions is that immortality will be achievable by 2030 with nanobots – tiny robots that can repair human bodies on a cellular level.
In an interview, he famously said: “By the time we get to the 2040s, we’ll be able to multiply human intelligence a billionfold. That will be a profound change that’s singular in nature. Computers are going to keep getting smaller and smaller. Ultimately, they will go inside our bodies and brains and make us healthier, make us smarter.”
Webb, who has been called ‘one of the five women changing the world’, recently wrote a book called The Genesis Machine with fellow futurist, Andrew Hessel. The book, which won a Gold Axiom Medal, explores synthetic biology, a controversial and emerging techno-science. Biotech, which is something both Webb and Hessel focus on, was a key part of Webb’s 2024 Tech Trends Report. In her talk at SXSW, she said that the next stage of AI is merging digital supercomputers with human tissue. This is something Webb refers to as organoid intelligence, or O-AI. She predicts that by 2039, O-AI will become the forefront of computational evolution, merging human-like decision-making capabilities with the speed of traditional computers.
In simple terms, Webb says that we will be able to make biocomputers out of human brain cells – we will grow computers rather than build them. Hessel is a pioneer in synthetic biology, microbiologist, geneticist and futurist. He is also the co-founder of a company called Hu-mane Genomics Inc. that engineers synthetic viruses to target cancer cells. “Biology is a very different medium than computing but there are fundamental similarities,” he wrote in a blog post talking about synthetic biology in Af-rica. “Africa is geographically well-positioned to benefit from synthetic biology. Much of the country is in the biological power band of the world, blessed with ample sunlight, fresh water, fertile soils, and incredible biological diversity. But it is also vulnerable to changes in climate, particularly shifts in rainfall and heat waves,” he continues. Hessel has seen first-hand how AI tools are supercharging all aspects of digital biology and predicts that DNA printers are on the cusp of a major upgrade. He believes that in the next five years, we will be able to print and assemble microbial-scale genomes — at reasonable cost and turnaround times.
In the workplace
No matter whether you call them futurists, fu-turologists, foresight practitioners or horizon scanners, it’s becoming increasingly common for organizations to employ professionals with these titles. According to the Univer-sity of Houston, around 25% of Fortune 500 companies have futurists on staff. They’re also commonplace at government agencies as well as non-profits. Andrew Bolwell, for example, is HP’s chief disrupter. In his role, he unpacks megatrends like microfluidics – working with tiny amounts of fluid with precision. Even though printers already do this, Bolwell is talking about even smaller amounts, fluids the fifth of a size of a human cell (or a thousand times smaller than a raindrop). With the microfluidics market projected to be worth $64.94 billion by 2029, according to Mordor Intelligence, the possibility of 3D-printing vital organs may become a reality.
“BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE 2040S, WE’LL BE ABLE TO MULTIPLY HUMAN INTELLIGENCE A BILLIONFOLD. THAT WILL BE A PROFOUND CHANGE THAT’S SINGULAR IN NATURE. COMPUTERS ARE GOING TO KEEP GETTING SMALLER AND SMALLER. ULTIMATELY, THEY WILL GO INSIDE OUR BODIES AND BRAINS AND MAKE US HEALTHIER, MAKE US SMARTER.”– Ray Kurzweil
When Dr Werner Vogels, Chief Technology Officer (CTO) and Vice President at Amazon, one of the globe’s most innovative companies, looks into the future, the world takes note.
The well-known futurist, who releases tech predictions for the year and beyond, also happens to be one of the highest-paid CTOs worldwide – it’s no wonder his live speaking fee reportedly starts at $100,000. One of Vo-gels’ predictions is that women’s healthcare, femtech, is on the rise. “Women’s healthcare is not a niche market,” he writes in his tech predictions report. “At AWS, we’ve been work-ing closely with women-led startups and have seen first-hand the growth in femtech. In the last year alone, funding has increased 197%.”
With increased access to capital, technologies like machine learning, and connected devices designed specifically for women, Vogels believes that the world is at the precipice of an unprecedented shift, not only in the way women’s care is perceived, but how it’s administered. From women in rural areas who have been historically underserved medically to female athletes whose training was modelled on what worked for men, femtech will finally see women’s care move from the fringes to the forefront.
As companies strive to achieve aggressive sustainability targets, there are now climate and environmental futurists emerging as key strategic advisors, guiding businesses in navigating the complexities of climate change, resource management and eco-friendly practices to secure long-term viability and environmental stewardship. For Gerd Leonhard, a German futurist, green has become the new digital and sustainable is the new profitable. In a recent keynote, he said that he’s optimistic about climate change and global warming because we already have the tools we need to solve it. “We’re going to suffer for 15 to 20 years in the process of fixing this,” he predicts, “but we’re now getting ready to do this… technological advancements offer solutions that can help tackle these challenges. It will be essential to find a balance between economic progress and environmental preservation.”
Leonhard, like other consulting futurists, is working with companies to help them understand the next decade and develop foresight. “It’s not predictions, it’s understanding, intuition and imagination,” he explains in a podcast, adding that being a futurist is similar to being a therapist. His job is to essentially point his clients in the right direction; clients who happen to be tech giants, business leaders and government officials around the globe.
The future, today
There’s no question that history is happening now and futurists provide a way to understand current trends as well as anticipate what’s to come. Futurism is essentially risk management because every industry is experiencing dynamic change. In the last 50 years we’ve made more progress than in the previous 250,000 years and it’s been said that the next 10 years will bring more change than the previous 100. Of course, the future is unpredictable and futurists are not fortune tellers – they get things wrong. However, their value lies in their ability to analyze data and identify patterns. By incorporating foresight into strategic planning, businesses, governments and other organizations can adapt more effectively to emerging trends, mitigate risks and seize the moment. In a world characterized by rapid technological advancements, the role of the futurist has become increasingly indispensable in shaping a better tomorrow.
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