Harris Surges Past Trump In Election Betting Markets After First Presidential Debate

Published 2 months ago
Siladitya Ray
ABC News Hosts Second Presidential Debate
US Vice President Kamala Harris, right, and former US President Donald Trump during the second presidential debate at the Pennsylvania Convention Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, US, on Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024. Democrat Kamala Harris opened her presidential debate with Republican Donald Trump by touting her economic agenda, saying she was the only candidate on stage with a plan focused on "lifting up the middle class and working people of America." Photographer: Doug Mills/The New York Times/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris vaulted past President Donald Trump to become the bookmaker’s favorite to win the November election on Tuesday night, after a strong showing in the first presidential debate.

Key Facts

According to the Election Betting Odds tracker, which consolidates betting numbers from four separate markets, bookmakers now believe Harris has a 51.8% chance of winning compared to Trump’s 46.9%.

This is a major shift in favor of Harris, whose chances have risen by more than four and half points in the past 24 hours, while Trump’s have plummeted by four.

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Bettors on crypto-based betting platform Polymarket—who heavily favored a Trump win in the past two weeks—now believe both Harris and Trump have a 49% chance of winning.

On the British betting site Smarkets, bookmakers predict that Harris now has a 51.55% chance of winning—up from 47.5% last week—while Trump’s odds have dropped to 46.3%.

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On PredictIt, the only platform where bettors gave Harris better odds than Trump before the debate, the vice president expanded her lead and now has odds of 56 cents per share (roughly equating to a 56% chance) compared to Trump’s 47 cents per share.

Surprising Fact

While the betting markets believe the election remains fairly close, this is a strong consensus among bettors that Harris won the debate. Polymarket bookmakers believe Harris has a 98% chance of being judged the winner of Tuesday night’s debate in consolidated post-debate snap polls.

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Big Number

2.7%. That is the size of Harris’ lead over Trump in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average.

Tangent

Unlike the other betting markets, PredictIt only allows participation by U.S. residents who are 18 or older. Earlier this year, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a ban on all election-related betting in the U.S. derivatives market. The agency’s proposal came after being sued by PredictIt for trying to shut down the platform from taking bets on the presidential race—after previously allowing it.

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