TOPLINE
Foreign betting markets believe Vice President Kamala Harris is in pole position to become the Democratic nominee for the 2024 election, while former President Donald Trump’s odds of winning the presidency in November took a slight hit Monday—though he remains bookmakers’ favorite with a sizable lead.
KEY FACTS
Bettors on the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket and New Zealand-based PredictIt are predicting Harris has an 84% chance of becoming the Democratic nominee for president after she was endorsed by President Joe Biden—who dropped out of the race on Sunday—and other top Democrats.
On Polymarket, Harris is now locked in an almost dead heat with Trump—44% and 45%, respectively—on who the market believes will win the popular vote in November, although bookmakers still give him a 64% chance (a 35-point lead) of winning the election.
Despite his lead, bets favoring a Trump win on Polymarket have shrunk in the past week, dropping seven points while Harris’s odds have surged from single digits to 29%—as the Democratic winning bet has consolidated around her.
Bettors on PredictIt are giving Harris comparatively better odds of winning the election at 39%, and while Trump remains well ahead at 60%—he is down nine points over the past seven days.
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NEWS PEG
While bettors believe Harris is the firm favorite to be the Democrats’ presidential nominee, the odds are more spread out on the question of her potential running mate. Bookmakers on Polymarket predict North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper has the best odds with 33%—followed by Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 26%. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., are further back in third and fourth place with odds of 17% and 15%. PredictIt bettors, however, believe Shapiro has better odds (27%) compared to Cooper (22%) followed by Kelly (20%).
TANGENT
Last week, Fanduel and BetMGM halted their U.S. election betting markets—which were being operated from Canada—after the assassination attempt against Trump. In May, the CFTC proposed a law to ban all election-related betting in the U.S. derivatives market. The federal agency’s proposal came after it was sued by PredictIt while trying to shut the platform down.
FURTHER READING
Betting Markets Swing Towards Harris Being Democratic Nominee—As Pushback Against Biden Grows (Forbes)
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