In 2024, a group of Australian researchers (Boafo et al.) asked a pertinent question: “The race for critical minerals in Africa: A blessing or another resource curse?” The continent is abundant with natural resources, but this has often been to our detriment. As the African Development Bank (AfDB) referred to it, Africa is faced with the paradox of plenty. In other words, despite an abundance of natural resources, countries often contend with little to no economic growth, low GDP and worrying developmental metrics. Now, we are seeing greater demand for critical or rare minerals, particularly through the lens of the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) and the just transition, and this paradox emerges once again. Studies suggest that there is a clear boom.
For example, the Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 by the International Energy Agency (IEA) found that between 2017 and 2022, demand for lithium had tripled, cobalt had risen 70%, and nickel had increased 40%. In 2022, the market size of critical minerals had reached $320 billion, with expectations that this figure would double by 2030 and quadruple by 2050. This demand has seen a sharp increase in investment, and Africa is called to respond accordingly.
This demand and investment, however, present vast economic and socio-ecological challenges for the continent. Perhaps, it is necessary to begin by understanding why these minerals are critical or rare. The very challenge of extracting these minerals is one point. Another point is that they are needed for technologies and economies to function, and there are no viable substitutes. Then, there is also the ever-present concern that these supply chains could be disrupted. For example, 47% of the world’s cobalt reserves, which are used to power lithium-ion batteries and are a component in nearly all our devices, are found in Africa.
Given the wealth of our reserves, these critical minerals could be considered a blessing for Africa. However, we are quickly seeing that the current status quo poses a distinct challenge. Anyone familiar with cobalt extraction in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), for instance, will know that these practices have been reportedly referred to as modern-day slavery. Much of the conflict in this region is also defined by this critical mineral. When we consider the history of Africa, we know all too well that this could be a repetition. Ongoing conflict, instability and war have categorized much of our journey with natural resources. Mining for precious jewels, for instance, has been associated with the term ‘conflict or blood diamonds’. In the movie, Blood Diamonds, the term ‘T.I.A. or This is Africa’ is used as a sign of resignation towards this reality.
With critical minerals, these worries arise once again but are compounded. There are also concerns of environmental degradation, which has emerged as a distinct worry, particularly in areas without regulation. In Ghana, for instance, informal gold miners, who practice ‘galamsey’ (small-scale illegal mining), have reportedly triggered degradation, water pollution and deforestation on an unprecedented scale. This begs the question: how do we address these challenges?
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If we consider the potential for growth, development, job creation and government revenue, critical minerals could be Africa’s trump card. However, if critical minerals are going to contribute to Africa’s sustainable development, these perennial challenges require solutions. Boafo et al., for instance, advocate for a cohesive regional response. They call for the African Union (AU) to finalize the Africa Critical Minerals Strategy as a guide for negotiating mining contracts and agreements, drawing from global good mining practices. They further call for individual African countries to revisit their national policies and regulations to tip in favor of the opportunities embedded in the increased demand. Finally, they outline that an incentive scheme could enable the local private sector to emerge as a key player. These are well-thought-out solutions that should be considered, but I would add that more needs to be done.
In driving sustainability, legal and policy regulatory frameworks are required, but within these frameworks, there also needs to be a distinct focus on challenging poor governance, addressing the lack of transparency in mining practices and supply chains and including monitoring and enforcement mechanisms. In this shift, the worry of a curse might be reframed as a blessing.
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