The Uncertainty around the U.S. elections after months of debate was fi nally put to rest as results were announced on November 6. Donald Trump created history by winning when all the odds were supposedly stacked up against him. Listening to Professor Allan Lichtman, the ‘Nostradamus of election predictions’, and based on his near-perfect track-record of predicting the outcome of the U.S. elections (nine correct out of the last 10), there appeared to have been a strong view that Trump would never see the White House again. These predictions and prophesies have all come wrong and despite being a convicted felon, Trump will be the 47th and the oldest President of the U.S. to take offi ce. He created history on many levels, but the most important milestone was that he is the only Republican presidential candidate to have defeated two women (both Democrats) in his final campaign to become President: Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Kamala Harris in 2024.
While there is a lot of debate around the reasons for Harris’ loss – including blaming President Joe Biden for delaying his decision not to contest for a second-term in office – the real question is whether the U.S. is ready for a woman president; especially if she is a person of color. Despite all the chest-thumping on women’s rights and equity, most of the U.S.’ population is not prepared to vote for a female president.
This was amply illustrated by the fact that not only were older males supportive of Trump but even some Latino men, who earlier voted for Biden in 2020, turned their back on the Democratic Party in 2024.
With this result behind us, we are now faced with many questions about the various promises made by Trump as part of his election campaign. There are many questions relating to the U.S. foreign policy that will most likely impact the world. The first is the position that the U.S. may take regarding the Ukraine war and by extension, whether the country will continue to support the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Trump had made declarations in the past, that the U.S. could not continue subsidizing NATO and that all member countries are required to make prorated financial contributions towards the alliance.
Trump’s stand against Iran and in favor of Israel will cause further short-term escalation of hostilities in
the Middle East. His statement about “finishing the job in Gaza” will need to be clarified as it can have far-reaching consequences for stability in the Middle East. Finally, his position on China will have a lot of macro-economic consequences, particularly if import duties are raised. His views on many issues are radical and can result in greater polarization in global geopolitics.
One thing for sure is that the next four years are going to be a roller coaster ride as even his close aides don’t always know what Trump is thinking and/ or planning.
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Closer to home, the South African political arena entered unchartered territory with the formation of the first coalition government since 1994. As expected, the African National Congress (ANC) lost its national national majority and is now leading the Government of National Unity (GNU) formed as a coalition between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance (DA). There are a number of positives that will emerge, including accountability that will become a key outcome in the years ahead. The ANC will need to get its house in order if it plans to stay in government. The only glaring weakness of the GNU is the fragile nature of the relationship between the ANC and DA that have very different ideologies, and the undercurrents are already being felt across diff erent factions and more specifically, in the municipalities where there appears to be a complete lack of trust. It is widely expected that the coalition will possibly survive until the municipal elections in 2026, the outcome of which could test the fundamentals of the coalition.
From an economic standpoint, business has generally been positive and there has been no major turbulence post-election which has also been reflected in the strengthening of the South African rand. There is much to be discussed about South African politics in the years ahead as the country’s democracy matures from a two-party system into a multi-party democracy and devolution of political power to different parties in the provinces.
The fight in the medium-term will be for the province of Gauteng as the party that rules this economic powerhouse will rule the country.
In the meantime, we have been experiencing evolving weather conditions in diff erent parts of the continent. The temperature in Johannesburg fell to six degrees in October and the month of November had some unusual inversions of temperature. Over the last few months, I have been speaking with business and political leaders regarding the likely outcomes of uncontrolled climate change and the impact of global warming on our lives in Africa. The first and immediate point of departure and unintended contention is that the last two conferences (COP28 in the United Arab Emirates and COP29 in Azerbaijan) have been held in countries whose future is dependent on fossil fuels. Consequently, it’s unlikely that there will be any consensus on slowing down the production of fossil fuels.
While some oil producers have been less forthcoming on the production of fossil fuels, the U.S. under Trump may be a lot more vocal about the futility of the debates around climate change. As the largest economy in the world, if the U.S. abandons or neglects the emphasis on energy transformation, what would other nations do? Countries like China and India are unlikely to follow the goals being set under the Paris Agreement and this initiative will lose momentum and expedite global warming. Furthermore, it’s unreasonable and unconscionable for developed countries to continue buying carbon credits at the cost of the development of emerging economies particularly in Africa where there are adequate coal and fossil fuel reserves available. As developed countries continue to pursue their self-interests, the appalling impact of global warming can be seen all over the world including but not limited to the recent forest fires in California and the floods in Spain.
It’s no secret that 2024 will be the first year when the global warming thresholds of 1.5 degree centigrade above pre-industrialization temperatures will be crossed (as set in the Paris Agreement). Trump had already withdrawn the U.S. from the Paris Agreement in 2020, which was re- instated by Biden in 2021. It’s likely that Trump will renege on this agreement again and this time do it by withdrawing from the United Nations Framework Convention on Cli- mate Change (UNFCC) that would automatically create an exit from the Paris Agreement. The stock prices of oil and fossil fuel companies went up as soon as Trump won the elections, signaling Trump’s alleged intent to start giving additional licenses and permits for drilling fossil fuels.
The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) concluded in Baku, Azerbaijan, on November 22. A core agenda for COP29 was “to establish more robust financial commit- ments to support climate resilience, especially for vulnera- ble and developing nations”. This amongst many other pri- orities includes defining a new global climate finance goal to replace the previous $100 billion yearly target, which was only partially met. This largely remains a pie in the sky as there is no way that under the new political dispensation of developed countries that this quantum of money will flow to developing nations for energy transformation.
Like others, African countries are on the frontline of climate change, with rising temperatures, droughts, and extreme weather events threatening food security and livelihoods. We witnessed unprecedented rainfall in Kenya this year indicating what is yet to come in the coming years. The agricultural sector, which employs over 60% of Africa’s workforce, is particularly vulnerable to climate change. In regions like the Horn of Africa, prolonged droughts have led to crop failures, and food shortages.
To combat these challenges, African countries need to invest in climate-smart agriculture — farming practices that increase productivity while building resilience to cli- mate shocks. However, these practices need large invest- ments that are currently not available to farmers. Initiatives such as AGRA (Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa) are attempting to assist smallholder farmers by promoting sustainable farming methods, access to finance, and im- proved agricultural technologies. AGRA has impacted the lives of over 26 million smallholder farmers in East Africa and West Africa.
In addition to agriculture, Africa’s urban cities face the challenge of managing the impact of climate change, to in- clude but not limited to flooding, rising sea levels, and wa- ter scarcity. Water shortages are already being seen as a challenge for the future as water tables continue to deplete. These are practical problems in Africa and the leaders on the continent need to adopt strategies to find solutions to these problems with an African lens so that the continent’s development is at the core of all decision-making.
There was another profound lesson that was given to business leaders at the recently-concluded CNBC Africa All Africa Business Leaders Awards (AABLA 2024). This time, it was on spirituality, by none other than Imtiaz Sooliman, Founder of the Gift of the Givers, who was invited by me to deliver the keynote address at a glittering ceremony at the Sandton Convention Centre in Johannesburg. In a very powerful and inspiring message, Sooliman gave an account of his life and the accomplishments by South Af- rica in assisting people in distress not only in South Africa but across the African continent and in other parts of the world. He emphasized the need for people to step away from simple profitability and focus on doing what is right and while respecting faith, focus on being spiritual. He re- ceived a standing ovation from the 550 guests for his im- pactful and timely message and was the highlight of this year’s awards.
After hosting the AABLAs for the last two years in Sun City, South Africa, we decided to bring the event back to Johannesburg for the convenience of our guests. In keeping with tradition, this was followed by the CNBC Africa annual golf day in support of the ABN Education Trust. The Trust supports the CSR activities of the ABN Group (CNBC Africa and FORBES AFRICA) with a specific mission to assist orphaned children and provide bursaries to children from disadvantaged families for university/tertiary education. Additionally, over the years, the Group has also provided internship opportunities to over 400 students to give them invaluable workplace experience. I encourage all business leaders and corporates to give serious thought to their purpose and have a strong focus on giving back to the communities that they serve.
2024 has passed by in a flash and for me, it will remain a year of elections and change that I hope and pray will be for the better. As we head to 2025, on behalf of the ABN family, I would like to take this opportunity to thank our readers, viewers, sponsors, partners, our Board, management and staff for the continued support over the years and wish everyone a happy and prosperous 2025.
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