Zimbabwe&#8217;s recent national election, resulting in a narrow win for the incumbent ZANU-PF party and President Emmerson Mnangagwa, is facing challenges amid allegations of fraud and irregularities by the leading opposition party, the Citizens’ Coalition for Change. International observers highlight concerns over transparency and fair practices, while Zimbabwe&#8217;s history of economic decline and political turmoil looms large.



Zimbabwe’s hotly-contested national election, which ended in a narrow victory by the incumbent ZANU-PF party and President Emmerson Mnangagwa, is set to be challenged by the leading opposition party, the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC), with the CCC’s leader declaring the election a “gigantic fraud”. The voting process has been critiqued by both local and international observers and has borne allegations of voting irregularities and intimidation by the ruling party and affiliated groups.



The voting, which began on Wednesday, August 23, was extended by a day due to the non-delivery of ballots in many polling stations, including those in the capital of Harare and Bulawayo. This saw some voters queuing for over 24 hours to cast their ballots.



Issues around the timely delivery and sealing of ballots, excessive delays in procedure, as well as allegations of gerrymandering, were all noted as concerns by South African Development Community (SADC) observers, who issued their preliminary report on the election over the weekend, noting that it “fell short of the requirements of the Constitution of Zimbabwe, the Electoral Act, and the SADC Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections (2021).”



“Zimbabwe was never a democracy, and it is still not a democracy,” tweeted prominent Zimbabwean journalist Hopewell Chin’ono. “That means it would be foolish for anyone of us to have expected a Free, Fair, and Credible election from ZANUPF.”



Similar concerns to those of SADC were noted by both European Union (EU) and Commonwealth observers, who also cited stakeholder concerns of voter intimidation and irregularities in the handling of ballots by the Zimbabwean Electoral Commission (ZEC). Observers did, however, note that the election process was largely peaceful, in stark contrast to the 2018 general election.



Local civil society organizations known to conduct independent oversight on the voting, such as the Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) and Election Resource Centre (ERC), who deploy observers and issue projections regarding the voting, saw their offices raided by government security forces as the vote counting was being concluded. Their staff was arrested and all equipment seized, contributing to a climate of uncertainty and intimidation surrounding the election and leading to further criticism by international bodies.



The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) condemned the arrests, calling for the immediate release of all persons detained and stating, “This is a worrying development for human rights in Zimbabwe, and it undermines democracy and respect for human rights,” in a statement last week.



The United Nations Secretary-General also expressed concerns through a spokesperson in a statement late yesterday: “The Secretary-General is closely following developments in Zimbabwe&#8217;s elections. He is concerned about the arrest of observers, reports of voter intimidation, threats of violence, harassment, and coercion.”



The primary opposition party, the CCC, has rejected the results, with party leader Nelson Chamisa stating, “There’s going to be a change in Zimbabwe, whether ZANU-PF people want it or not… we will not wait for five years, there has to be a change now,” he said in a media briefing yesterday.



ZANU-PF has held the reins of power since the end of white-minority rule in the country since 1980, initially under the long reign of Robert Mugabe, who was ousted in a coup in 2017. Then Vice-President Mnangagwa ascended to the Presidency with the support of the Zimbabwean Defense force and its commander, Constantino Chiwenga.



Mnangagwa’s regime has been reportedly marred by authoritarianism and corruption scandals, with a recent Al-Jazeera documentary implicating the President and many of his political associates in smuggling and money laundering. This is in a country ranked as one of the poorest in the world, according to World Bank data.



Under Mugabe’s rule and the controversial land reform policies of the early 2000s, the country saw a steep economic decline, hyperinflation, and increasing international sanctions. The continued instability in the country has led to many professionals leaving for better pastures, particularly that of neighboring South Africa.



The CCC’s Chamisa has indicated that the party will challenge the election results in court.



President Mnangagwa, after securing his second term, celebrated his victory and commended what he termed the transparency of the process, stating that the lack of violence was a sign of the country’s maturing democracy, and that some “…observation missions went beyond their call of duty…” and that “… those who feel the race was not run properly, know where to go.”

Zimbabwe Gears Up For 2023 General Elections

Zimbabwe Election Uncertainty: Opposition Challenges Narrow Victory

The date has been set for the much-anticipated Zimbabwe general elections: July 30. This will be the first time, in 38 years, the southern African nation will cast its ballot without former President Robert Mugabe on the candidate list.
“We are very excited for these elections because finally we can cast our votes with high hopes they will count,” says Zibusiso Zonke, a Zimbabwean living in South Africa.
It all began when Emmerson Mnangagwa, Mugabe’s former right-hand man, surprised Zimbabwe, and the world, last year, when he orchestrated the resignation of Mugabe, one of Africa’s longest-serving leaders.
Mnangagwa, also known as ‘crocodile’ for his politically cunning ways, took over as President of the ruling party, Zanu PF, thereby becoming the president of the country. He hopes voters will trust his leadership and vote for him to lead Zimbabwe to its former economic glory.
On the other hand, the country’s major opposition party, MDC-T, for the first time, will be led by Nelson Chamisa who took over as head of the party when its founder, Morgan Tsvangirai, died February 14. 
The shocking fact is 133 parties will be contesting for President, MPs and councillor positions. This is also a first.
“I think this is symptomatic of an economy no longer employing people. People think if they get into politics, they might end up in parliament or government meaning they would have a job. I don’t think many of these people have particular conviction; they are just looking for employment. Most of these parties disappear after the elections,” says Mordecai Mahlangu, partner at Gill, Godlonton &amp; Gerrans, an alliance firm of Norton Rose Fulbright.
Some Zimbabweans say they are unsure who to vote for. The ‘crocodile’ they know or 40-year-old Chamisa.
“Look, not that I&#8217;m for Emmerson Mnangagwa, but this is my problem, for Zimbabwe to re-emerge we will need the international community. Besides economic mismanagement, our problems have been due to that we had become a pariah state. Mugabe had severed many of our international relationships with his banter and behaviour. Now, we have Emmerson Mnangagwa whom the international community is engaging quickly. On the other hand, we have Chamisa whom the international community is already questioning…Morgan Tsvangirai was loved by the international community, Chamisa is being ridiculed instead and he is the source of that problem. Who do I then vote for?” asks Zimbabwean lawyer Tichaona Moyo.
<blockquote>&#8220;It&#8217;s a new system which has not been tried in this country&#8230;&#8221;</blockquote>
Moyo admits he used to be a big fan of MDC-T but now believes the party has become elitist.
“In the party, there aren’t many students, workers, and farmers anymore. The very labor movement which spearheaded its formation has been abandoned. So, l have to ask myself whose interest will such an outfit serve? Which constituent outfit does such an outfit care about?”
This is a debate among many. Lungile Mlambo says he is most likely to vote for MDC-T but worries because when Zanu PF was causing the destruction of the country, MDC-T was there and complacent.
“For me, Chamisa and Emmerson Mnangagwa are on the same footing. The former from an opposition party which has failed and the latter from a ruling party which has failed,” he says.
Over the years, there have been rumors Mugabe and Zanu PF stole the last two elections as they were rigged and people were threatened and abused into voting for the ruling party. So is this election going to be any different?
“The first thing is to debate the likelihood of a free and fair election&#8230; The concerns are the integrity of the system itself. It’s a new system which has not been tried in this country and we don’t know how it will turn out,” says Mahlangu.
It is Mahlangu’s opinion that if the election is free and fair, MDC-T might surprise the ruling party by winning.
“I get the sense that if the trend we are observing is anything to go by, the opposition might just surprise the ruling party. We have had 37 years of unhappiness. People attributed that to the ruling party. If the ruling party has been responsible for all these years of difficulty, why would anyone freely vote for them?”
The jury is out until August 4, when the winner will be announced.

Zimbabweans Welcome Military Intervention

Who Will Zimbabwe Vote For?

It’s three days before Christmas. Normally, at this time of the year, Merton Avenue, in Pretoria, South Africa, is an empty street. But today 3,000 people are pushing and shoving to get into the Zimbabwean embassy.
They all want to see Emmerson Mnangagwa, Zimbabwe’s new president and the man who brought Robert Mugabe’s 37-year rule to an end.
Inside the embassy, floor space is hard to find. There are people from all walks of life, from investors to lawyers to activists.
One of them is Ruvarashe Moyo, a Zimbabwean medical doctor living in South Africa.
“I came out today because I wanted to see the man who took out Mugabe. Many people back home don’t have adequate medical care, while there are thousands of specialists from Zimbabwe around the world. We are not at home because of the economic situation, so now I have hope that I may be able to go home soon. I am happy that the president’s speech was about reviving the economy and bringing us back home,” says Moyo.
Like the rest of hopeful Zimbabweans around the world, Moyo wants Zimbabwe to rekindle its former glory as Africa’s most booming economy.
Outside of land reform, Mugabe’s indigenization policies and allegations of rigged elections saw investors turn their backs on Zimbabwe, resulting in the economy tanking. The ruling Zanu-PF government invested heavily in health, education and parastatals. It meant, for most of the 1980s, public expenditure made up 45% of the GDP, according to the World Bank’s Zimbabwe Public Expenditure Review. It crowded out private investment and fueled inflation.
After 37 years, it means revitalizing Zimbabwe’s economy will not be an easy task.
“There is a lot to fix in the country, but the major thing to start with is fixing the economy so that people can have jobs and at least be able to sustain a decent living,” says Terrence Chitapi, a Zimbabwe-based economist.
According to Chitapi, Mnangagwa has said all the right things since his inauguration but needs to back up his words with action.
“From day one, he has spoken about a fresh start and people expected a quick turnaround of the economy and to see a strong push towards the respect of human rights, but so far we haven’t seen gigantic strides to turn these around,” he says.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/24/will-mnangagwa-usher-new-democracy-view-zimbabwe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Will Mnangagwa usher in a new democracy? The view from Zimbabwe</a>
In fact, during the back-to-school period, Zimbabweans witnessed a price hike in school supplies, there is still no hard currency and street vendors, the backbone of Zimbabwe’s economy, have been pushed off the streets for not having lisenses.
“There are actually people from the opposition who have been brutalized by the military. Even when they take street vendors off the streets, sometimes the way they conduct themselves borders on infringement of human rights and endangering lives of not only the vendors but also other passers-by which brings fear and is what Mugabe’s presidency represented,” says Chitapi.
When Mnangagwa was Vice President, he spoke about changes that needed to happen in policy matters, state departments, stabilizing the currency, and corruption. According to Anele Ndlovu, founder of the Zim-SA Forum, an organization that encourages investment in Zimbabwe, Mnangagwa is implementing change. The problem is the pace is slow.
Since he has been in power, Mnangagwa has streamlined government ministries from 26 to 22, revised the indigenization policy and announced the sale of some parastatals.
The biggest concern among Zimbabweans is whether the country will see real democracy.
Mnangagwa’s cabinet is similar to Mugabe’s and he appointed former army chief, Constantino Chiwenga, who led the “coup”, as his deputy.
“It was already a mistake to give the military that much power over politics and now to give the head of the military the position of Vice President shows these deals were made before, just so that they can get into high positions. I worry they might not want to leave and if people attempt to go to the streets, force may be used,” says another entrepreneur who refused to be named.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2018/02/15/morgan-tsvangirai-quiet-man-forced-wrong-job/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Morgan Tsvangirai: The Quiet Man Forced Into The Wrong Job</a>
This move has left many Zimbabweans anxious. But, according to Ndlovu, this is a transitional government that might change if Mnangagwa wins this year’s elections.
“You can’t get into government and then try to change everything all at once. Things would fall apart. You need a proper transition but some ministers need to be retired because they have been there for too long,” he says.
<div id="attachment_35340" style="width: 260px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-35340" class=" wp-image-35340" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Anele-Ndlovu-200x300.jpg" alt="Anele Ndlovu" width="250" height="375" />Anele Ndlovu (Photo supplied)</div>
At least doing business in Zimbabwe appears to be getting easier.
“People started getting permits quicker, it’s easier and faster to register a business and the visa processing has also become easier,” says Ndlovu.
To cut the budget deficit, Mnangwagwa’s government has invited bids for stakes in up to eight loss-making state-owned enterprises, including its national airline, Air Zimbabwe, sitting on a $300-million debt, and power utility, ZESA, which suffered a $224-million loss in 2016.
“If you give a private entity 35% of ZESA, for example, you know the way of doing business will change. They will be able to do collections, less corruption and it will be run properly. This is a very good move,” says Ndlovu.
Out of the 92 companies Zimbabwe fully or partly owns, 38 ran at losses amounting to about $270 million in 2016. Most of the parastatals have been losing money for years due to mismanagement and high operating costs.
“On big projects, like reviving Air Zimbabwe, the investor would want to know what securities they can get… There is a lot of interest from investors. For example, there is a delegation coming into Zimbabwe interested in agriculture and farming of soya and another Turkish delegation that wants to tour the country and see factories that are closed in Bulawayo and how they can get involved in the tourism sector.”
The Harvard Business Review agrees that investors could benefit if Mnangagwa continues to concentrate on economic revival.
“Mnangagwa’s first actions in office underscore how important he views economic recovery. Even before announcing his new cabinet, Mnangagwa installed a key reformist, Patrick Chinamasa, as Acting Finance Minister, tasked with tackling corruption and re-engaging with international institutions to unlock funds to ease liquidity shortages… In this environment, multinationals that are willing to accept some risk and invest in the country could benefit from first-mover advantages – but only if the new administration follows through with much-needed economic reforms,” reads an article in the publication.
Zimbabwe lost out on Africa’s recent growth boom but Ndlovu says those who are willing to put their money in infrastructure development, healthcare, agriculture, mining, technology and energy might have a big pay day as the economy is projected to grow more than 4.5% this year.
Back in Pretoria, as the crowd dispersed, the sky gradually turned a shade of purple and the stars began shimmering. It is dusk at the embassy but maybe a new dawn is on the horizon for Zimbabwe.

A New Dawn For Zimbabwe, But Is It Rosy?

Anyone who ever stood up for principle and paid for it in pain will mourn the passing of Morgan Tsvangirai, the man who never wanted to be president but wore himself out trying on behalf of his suffering people.
Tsvangirai, who succumbed to colon cancer in a Johannesburg hospital on February 14, never wanted the power that many leaders in Africa crave. His heart was in his humble rural roots in Buhera in eastern Zimbabwe – where he was born the eldest of nine children to a miner – and in the trade union movement. Tsvangirai followed his father down the mine and when independence came, in 1980, he joined the ruling party, Zanu-PF, and rose swiftly through the ranks becoming a staunch supporter of President Robert Mugabe. History is littered with such ironies.
It was as head of the mighty Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions that Tsvangirai enjoyed his annus mirabilis at the head of hundreds of thousands of workers. With his trademark cowboy hat, he could hold a crowd with fiery oratory and hold a strike in place against the odds. With a handful of faxes he could close the country down, which he did in 1997 and 1998 with mass stay-aways as economic hard times and President Mugabe’s indifference hurt the people.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/24/will-mnangagwa-usher-new-democracy-view-zimbabwe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Will Mnangagwa usher in a new democracy? The view from Zimbabwe</a>
It was this skill that led him up the greasy pole of politics; yet, even in his pomp you could tell that he didn’t want to.
One hot afternoon, in 1998, amid a spate of strikes, my TV crew and I received a frantic call from Tsvangirai’s office for us to come and save him. By this time, he had raised the ire of thugs loyal to Zanu-PF, calling themselves war veterans, who stormed his office and tried to throw him out of a third-floor window. Tsvangirai asked his secretary to call us instead of the police because, sadly, in the politically charged atmosphere, he didn’t trust them.
Luckily, as we arrived, the thugs fled. As we calmed Tsvangirai down, I asked him why he didn’t go ahead and run for president as he had the power of the workers at his elbow.
“No, Chris, if you run for president even your grandchildren will be persecuted,” said Tsvangirai.
And so it turned out. Activists shepherded Tsvangirai into forming the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), setting into motion years of vilification, intimidation and abuse that left him battered and bloody in mind and body. Tsvangirai tried to keep his feet on the ground through his stable home life. In the early days he used to hold press conferences in his front garden where his charming wife, Susan, who died tragically in a car accident in 2009, used to bring us tea with a smile.
Yet, worse times came after tea. Tsvangirai, egged on by the west, became the world’s champion against the growing horror of Mugabe and paid for it by being arrested, beaten and charged with treason. Even the Mugabe-leaning judges in Harare dismissed the trumped-up charges.
Undoubtedly Tsvangirai won the presidential elections against Mugabe in 2008, but the conniving election authorities refused to release the results. Thus stolen election led to a power-sharing agreement, the following year, under which Tsvangirai became a pretty much powerless deputy president. He was never to reach the top spot not that, deep down, it really bothered him.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2018/01/15/zimbabwe-urgently-needs-new-land-administration-system/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Zimbabwe urgently needs a new land administration system</a>
Those who had stood against the bullies and suffered may prefer to remember Tsvangirai by another tale related by one of my colleagues in Zimbabwe.
A top level delegation of MDC officials had gone to see their political counterparts in Zambia. Zanu-PF apparatchiks in Harare lent on the Zambian government to deport them and the MDC group ended up stranded and angry under a tree, with phones with flat batteries, on the Zimbabwe side of the Chirundu border. Tsvangirai’s colleagues attacked their leader under the branches of the tree.
“What is the point of this political movement?” says one.
Tsvangirai seized the moment and ordered his empty-pocketed colleagues to sing as they marched to a village a few kilometers away. A few hours later, villagers were surprised to see Tsvangirai, in full voice, walking into their village at the head of a phalanx of suited comrades. A cell phone in the village summoned transport and they drove home in good spirits.
A fleeting taste of the leadership that Zimbabwe was destined to never see.

Morgan Tsvangirai: The quiet man forced into the wrong job

The military has taken control of the national broadcaster, troops are in the streets and the president is being held in a secure environment. All military leave is cancelled and a senior general has addressed the nation. Yet the Zimbabwean military continues with the pretence that this is <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2017-11-15-zimbabwe-army-in-control-of-state-institutions-but-insists-not-a-coup/#.Wg2PqE27LL8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">not a coup d’etat</a>.
The obvious response to this is: if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then the chances are it’s a duck. And the sole reason the Zimbabwean military is not acknowledging this as a coup d’etat is to avoid triggering the country’s automatic suspension from the <a href="https://au.int/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">African Union</a> and the Southern African Development Community <a href="http://www.sadc.int/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">(SADC)</a>. Both bodies frown on coups.
A perfect storm formed ahead of these events and made military action predictable. The country had once again entered a steep economic decline (not that its “recovery” had been anything of note). A clear and reckless bid for power was being made by the so-called <a href="https://www.theindependent.co.zw/2016/03/18/what-does-g40-want/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Generation 40 (G40) faction</a> around Grace Mugabe in direct opposition to the Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa, the standard bearer for the so-called <a href="http://www.pindula.co.zw/Lacoste,_Zanu-PF_Faction" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lacoste faction</a>.
This culminated in Mnangagwa’s dismissal by President Mugabe: a clear indication that Grace Mugabe was now calling the shots. It also served as a follow up to the 2015 Grace-engineered dismissal of another Vice President and rival, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30400178" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Joice Mujuru</a>.
The coup means that Mugabe’s long and disastrous presidency is finally over. The only questions that remain are the precise details and mechanics of the deal which secures his departure.
<h2>Why the coup?</h2>
Mnangagwa is a long time Zanu-PF stalwart and is clearly closely integrated with the military high command and the intelligence services. Both institutions are concerned that the succession is being arranged for a faction led by people with no liberation credentials but who have been skilled in manipulating Mugabe himself and in making him do their bidding. The G40 now appear to have overreached, perhaps believing that their proximity to the “old man” made them invincible.
This coup’s explicit purpose is twofold. First, it’s trying to definitively kill off Grace Mugabe’s ambitions to become president and to set in place a ruling dynasty akin to the Kims in North Korea. Second, it’s a bid to clear Mnangagwa’s path to power, first in Zanu-PF and then within the state itself (over the last three decades these have been virtually one and the same thing).
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/16/whats-next-embattled-zimbabwe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: What&#8217;s next for embattled Zimbabwe?</a>
What we do not yet know is what counter force, if any, the G40 can bring to bear against the military. The calculation of the military hierarchy appears to be that Grace and company are paper tigers who will have few cards to play against such force majeure and who lack the popular appeal to bring angry and disillusioned masses out onto the streets.
The coup has formally stripped away the façade that Zimbabwe is a constitutional state. This is clearly a militarised party-state where the military is a pivotal actor in the ruling party’s internal politics. It is not simply a neutral state agency subordinate to the civilian leadership. And the idea that this military intervention is an aberration – a departure from the constitutional norm – is misplaced.
Zimbabwe is a de facto military dictatorship. It serves as a guarantor of Zanu-PF rule rather than as a custodian of the constitution. It has helped Zanu-PF rig elections. And it was central to the state terror which was unleashed against the population to reverse Mugabe and Zanu-PF’s <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/2170138/Zimbabwe-Death-toll-rises-in-Robert-Mugabes-reign-of-terror-before-election.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">electoral defeat in 2008</a>. The military has always been a key political actor. The only difference this time is that its intervention is designed to control events within Zanu-PF rather than to crush opposition to it.
But, a highly politicised military is a major impediment to the re-establishment of a democratic order in Zimbabwe. It has nothing to gain, politically or financially, from democratic rule given the lucrative networks of embezzlement and plunder it’s put in place over decades. Most recently it seized and siphoned off of the country’s diamond wealth for military officers and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/12/zimbabwe-diamonds-mugabe-marange-fields" target="_blank" rel="noopener">party hierarchy</a>.
This intervention is designed to secure the presidency for Mnangagwa. So it is hard to avert our eyes from the elephant – or in this case the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-41995876" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crocodile</a> – in the room. Mnangagwa is the Mugabe henchman who helped enable the misrule and tyranny of the last 37 years. He was one of the principal architects of the <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books?id=zi-tWekXbD8C&amp;pg=PA19&amp;lpg=PA19&amp;dq=%22the+early+rain+which+washes+away+the+chaff+before+the+spring+rains%22&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=dWX2SIUj7r&amp;sig=0aDLpmmQfN93e_RNJuKcBmGGEYI&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwioi-joj6LWAhWE7hoKHRF_C7wQ6AEIOTAD#v=onepage&amp;q=%22the%20early%20rain%20which%20washes%20away%20the%20chaff%20before%20the%20spring%20rains%22&amp;f=false" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gukurahundi</a> – the genocidal attack on the Ndebele – in the early to mid-1980s which left at least 20,000 people dead.
He has also been instrumental in rigging elections and crushing all opposition to Zanu-PF rule, including the <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2017-11-15-after-mugabe-what-next?utm_source=Mail+%26+Guardian&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=Daily+newsletter&amp;utm_term=https%3A%2F%2Fmg.co.za%2Farticle%2F2017-11-15-after-mugabe-what-next" target="_blank" rel="noopener">atrocities of 2008</a>.
Expecting such a person to now make a deathbed conversion to the democracy, constitutional government and good governance he has spent an entire career liquidating is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/15/mugabe-gone-zimbabweans-decide-future-mnangagwa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dangerous nonsense</a>.
<h2>Dilemmas to come</h2>
Mnangagwa will soon have to confront a series of dilemmas. How can he put in place an administration which has the appearance of a national unity government, can secure international approval and the financial assistance required to help rebuild a shattered economy – but avoid ceding any meaningful power or control? Can this circle be squared?
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2017/06/01/the-pain-of-mugabe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: The Pain Of Mugabe</a>
The best hope for Zimbabweans is that the international community uses its leverage wisely and sets stringent conditions for such assistance: free elections closely monitored by an array of international organisations, the establishment of a new electoral commission, free access to the state media and the right of parties to campaign freely.
There should also be a role here for South Africa to restore its badly tarnished image as a champion of democracy in Africa. It has followed a malign path over the last two decades, facilitating Zanu-PF authoritarianism in the name of a threadbare and increasingly degenerate “liberation solidarity”.
Such a combination of pressures will severely restrict Mnangagwa’s room for manoeuvre. Anything short of that will deliver an outcome which is essentially Mugabeism without Mugabe. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-hamill-254226" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">James Hamill</a>, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, University of Leicester
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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Mnangagwa and the military may mean more bad news for Zimbabwe

Nobody is safe from the rages of Zimbabwe’s First Lady, “<a href="https://www.thestandard.co.zw/2014/09/21/grace-mugabes-doctorate-uz-remains-mum/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dr</a>. Amai” Grace Mugabe. There was the young <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/special-features/zimbabwe/grace-mugabe-split-my-head-open-claims-joburg-woman-10788605" target="_blank" rel="noopener">South African model</a> Grace lashed with extension cords. Ninety-three-year-old President Robert Mugabe’s longtime and usually trusted ally <a href="https://www.africa-confidential.com/article/id/12164/Mugabe_drops_the_crocodile" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Emmerson Mnangagwa</a>, was next in the firing line: he was sacked because his supporters allegedly <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/an-ordinary-man-after-all-mugabe-fires-right-hand-man-mnangagwa-20171106" target="_blank" rel="noopener">booed</a> her at a rally.
The consequences of her vengeance may have <a href="http://nehandaradio.com/2017/11/14/live-updates-situation-zimbabwe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">led to a coup</a> headed by Zimbabwe’s army chief General Constantino Chiwenga, who is commonly perceived to be Mnangagwa’s protégé. But <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/who-is-emmerson-mnangagwa/4115612.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ex-freedom fighter Mnangagwa</a> has his own presidential aspirations.
Mnangagwa has been exiled from the party in which he has served since he was a teenager. But he is not just skulking in the political wilderness. On arrival in South Africa he issued a statement calling those who wanted him out <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/full-statement-im-not-going-anywhere-zanu-pf-is-not-your-personal-property-mnangagwa-tells-mugabe-20171108" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“minnows”</a>. He promised to control his party “very soon” and urged his supporters to register to vote in the national elections next July.
As if to back Mnangagwa, on November 13 General Chiwenga announced that he and his officers could not allow the “counter-revolutionary infiltrators”, implied to be behind Grace Mugabe, to <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/13/zimbabwe-army-chief-warns-mugabes-party-military-may-intervene/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">continue their purges</a>.
<h2>Factions and purges</h2>
Chiwenga <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-41992351" target="_blank" rel="noopener">declared</a> that the armed forces must ensure all party members attend the extraordinary Zanu-PF congress next month with “equal opportunity to exercise their democratic rights”. He flashed back through Zanu-PF’s history of factionalism, reminding his listeners that although the military “will not hesitate to step in” it has never “usurped power”. Chiwenga promised to defuse all the differences “amicably and in the ruling party’s closet”.
Although this airbrushed more than it <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02589001.2014.956499" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revealed</a> about the party’s rough patches when leadership vacuums appeared, the statement appeared more as a cautionary note than a clarion call to arms. It’s not often a coup is announced before it starts; but once in motion direction – and history – can change. Grace Mugabe may have unleashed a perfect storm and her own undoing.
All the “shenanigans” that have inspired the generals to consider a coup have set the stage for an extraordinary Zanu-PF congress this December instead of in the expected 2019: that is, before rather than after the July 2018 national elections.
This suggests some people were in a hurry to settle the succession issues for the president, who is now showing every one of his 93 years. Maybe Robert Mugabe won’t rule until he is <a href="http://www.hsrcpress.ac.za/product.php?productid=2114&amp;freedownload=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">100-years-old</a>. If not, and <a href="https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/mugabes-zimbabwe-has-an-angry-population-and-a-potentially-violentfuture/article36934238/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">members of his family</a> or party wanted to keep their dynasties alive, they had to work quickly lest some similarly inclined contenders are in their way.
These contenders include Mnangagwa and a slew of his <a href="http://www.pindula.co.zw/Lacoste,_Zanu-PF_Faction" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“Lacoste” faction</a> consisting of war veterans and the odd financial liberal. The best-known of these is Patrick Chinamasa. This former finance minister tried to convince the world’s bankers he could pull Zimbabwe <a href="https://theconversation.com/zimbabwes-financial-system-is-living-on-borrowed-time-and-borrowed-money-86159" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out of the fire</a>. He was demoted to control cyberspace and then fired. Perhaps he may make a comeback in the wake of the semi-coup.
The pro-Grace faction includes the members of <a href="https://www.theindependent.co.zw/2016/03/18/what-does-g40-want/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Generation 40, or “G-40”</a>. Many are well over 40. But in Robert Mugabe’s shadow they appear young, as does the 52-year-old First Lady. Without a base in the liberation-war cohort, they resorted to working with the Mugabe couple: sometimes their ideology appears radical, espousing indigenous economics and more land to the tillers.
If the history of their best-known member – the current Minister of Higher Education <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/Jonathan_Moyo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jonathan Moyo</a> – is indicative, however, they are pragmatic; or less politely put, opportunist.
But with Grace Mugabe sans Robert, they would have to muster inordinate amounts of patience and manipulation to steer the sinking ship to the shores of stable statehood and incorporate yet <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Search-Elusive-Zimbabwean-Dream-Autobiography/dp/0994707924" target="_blank" rel="noopener">younger generations</a> who cut their political teeth as Robert Mugabe’s rule faltered.
<h2>Perfidious ‘saviours’</h2>
Yet the possible plan for the upcoming congress – to create a third vice-president – appears not to move far beyond the cold hands of the old. <a href="https://www.news24.com/Tags/People/phelekezela_mphoko" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Phelekezela Mphoko</a> would be pushed to third vice-president status. Grace would be the second vice-president.
The current defence minister, <a href="https://www.theindependent.co.zw/2017/11/10/mnangagwas-great-escape-details/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sydney Sekeramayi</a> would be first vice-president and so, next in line for the presidential palace. He is a quiet but no less tarnished member of the Zanu-PF old guard; especially when one remembers the massacre of thousands of Ndebele people during the <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books?id=zi-tWekXbD8C&amp;pg=PA19&amp;lpg=PA19&amp;dq=%22the+early+rain+which+washes+away+the+chaff+before+the+spring+rains%22&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=dWX2SIUj7r&amp;sig=0aDLpmmQfN93e_RNJuKcBmGGEYI&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwioi-joj6LWAhWE7hoKHRF_C7wQ6AEIOTAD#v=onepage&amp;q=%22the%20early%20rain%20which%20washes%20away%20the%20chaff%20before%20the%20spring%20rains%22&amp;f=false" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gukurahundi</a>.
When performing the calculus necessary to rectify Zimbabwe’s graceless imbalances, remember that Mnangagwa was perhaps the key architect of the nearly genocidal Gukurahundi, now chronicled in archival detail in historian Stuart Doran’s <a href="https://www.sithatha.com/books" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kingdom, Power, Glory: Mugabe, Zanu, and the Quest for Supremacy</a>. Among the scores implicated therein are the British, condemned by Hazel Cameron, another meticulous archivist, as exercising <a href="https://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/news/archive/2017/zimbabwe-cameron/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“wilful blindness”</a> during what Robert Mugabe has dismissed as a “moment of madness”.
Perhaps it’s no surprise, then, that many are suspicious of Mnangagwa’s <a href="http://africanarguments.org/2017/11/08/zimbabwe-the-uks-misguided-role-in-the-rise-and-fall-of-mnangagwa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">relationship</a> with the UK. Many suspect he has been swimming with perfidious Albion for a very, very long time.
Those waters, in the shadow of Mugabe’s heritage, will take a few more generations of hard political work to clear. It hardly seems propitious that a coup, and the same generation that has ruled since 1980, starts it off.
&#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-b-moore-285501" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">David B. Moore</a>, Professor of Development Studies, University of Johannesburg and originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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What’s next for embattled Zimbabwe?

A few months ago, he was a lone voice in the wilderness, now he is an international figure. Days after his acquittal in court, he has a campaign manager and his personal assistant tells me that for now he is not taking any calls. I speak to him in Johannesburg days later.
“I have not spoken to my parents yet due to security concerns for them. But, I know they have been praying for me. My wife was there throughout the whole court proceedings from morning to evening, fully pregnant. She is an amazing woman, I tell you,” he tells me from Johannesburg, in a visit that might last longer than his supporters want.
Evan Mawarire shot to international recognition on July 12, the day he presented himself to the police with a bible in hand and his flag around his neck. The country’s police had summoned him over a missing police helmet, a baton and suspicion of possessing subversive material.
“As we entered the cold, dark and smelly cell popularly known as ‘Baghdad’, I couldn’t help notice the brotherliness amongst the group inmates. They laughed, hit high fives and exchanged stories on what had landed them in for the first time or yet again. Nearly all the young men in the cell with me that night told me truth of their offenses. The one guy said to me ‘I deserve this and my desire is to stop stealing but I can’t boss, I don’t have a job’. Later that evening we shared some of my food that had been brought to me and he took it upon himself to ask anyone in the cell who had more than two blankets to give me one. I’ll be honest I’ve made a lot of friends in my lifetime, but that day in that cell I made some truly special friends. I met some real genuine Zimbabwean men,” says Mawarire.
The man of the cloth, who now had a blanket, was to also face charges of trying to topple his government. It all ended in acquittal and cheers at the Rotten Row magistrate’s court in Harare.
He is not the first to face such charges: Morgan Tsvangirai, Dumiso Dabengwa, Lookout Masuku and Ndabaningi Sithole, all opposition politicians, have been similarly accused down the years.
Mawarire’s crime: filming himself, using his mobile phone, complaining about his country’s malaise. The government’s only evidence, as they dragged him to court, was his posts on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. This is the story of Mawarire and his hashtag campaign #ThisFlag. In Zimbabwe, it’s risky to say the least.
Mawarire rallies hundreds of thousands of demonstrating ex-patriate Zimbabweans from Harare to London, Washington, Johannesburg and Melbourne. His words appear powerful enough to persuade citizens to shut down the country; on July 6, this turned Bulawayo and Harare into ghost towns.
On Sundays, he preaches to a congregation of 70, outside church, his sermons about politics, economy and corruption reach tens of thousands over the internet. His campaign is so powerful that the government is contemplating banning social media.
“This campaign is unique as it’s not led by politicians; it’s a campaign by ordinary citizens. We are calling for citizens to act now and act urgently, we are not going to be silenced and intimidated by the government. The call is for our government to account for and address corruption, injustice and poverty,” he says.
Mawarire, married with two children, grew up in Mazowe, 40 kilometers north of Harare, in a family of six. He studied at one of the country’s top schools, Prince Edward in Harare, before his father brought him back to the village. At 16, he was chosen as Zimbabwe’s first child president from the country’s schools.
Twenty three years later, Mawarire’s country is mired in poverty while the elite earn vast salaries; he claims billions have been lost to corruption. His campaign emerged out of frustration over scraping together school fees.
“We are completely unhappy with the situation, we have graduates who are vendors, our pensioners struggle to get their $80 out of their banks, and our best hospital goes for days without water that patients are now being asked to bring their own water,” he says.
Speaking out carries a heavy price.
“I’m definitely worried of re-arrest and I know they are trying to take me. I see danger and I fear for my life but I am more afraid of failing to explain to my children for having done nothing. Recently somebody called me and threatened to strangle me with the flag. Two government ministers have attacked me personally on social media. They are not used to citizens rising up and speaking to them.”
Jonathan Moyo, an opponent and minister in President Robert Mugabe’s cabinet, tweeted that US ambassador, Harry K. Thomas Jr, launched #ThisFlag at his residency. Mawarire and the US embassy deny this.
“The gap between real politics and cyber politics in Zimbabwe is so huge that one does not influence the other. Local politics remains the paradigm,” tweeted Moyo.
After Mawarire shut down the country Moyo had more to say.
“The notion that anyone can build Zimbabwe by shutting it down is an oxymoron,” Moyo tweeted.
“Moyo is trying to discredit the campaign by likening it to the Arab Spring. In all of my posts I made a call against violence; I know our government is well equipped to dealing with such kinds of resistance. They have accused us of being funded by the Americans, which is laughable and an indication of desperation,” says Mawarire.
#ThisFlag has shades of Baba Jukwa, the anonymous social media dissident that gave Mugabe and Zanu-PF headaches, so much so that a $300,000-reward was put on his or her head.
“I am not hiding like Baba Jukwa, I am not outside the country, people know where I live, and they know my salary.”
Editor of the Zimbabwe Independent and Chief Content Officer of Alpha Media Holdings, Dumisani Muleya, says Mawarire has rattled Mugabe’s government.
“It’s a defiance or anti-Mugabe regime campaign to rally people to fight the damaging leadership and policy failures of this government which have reduced Zimbabwe to ruins, hence panic by Zanu-PF ideologues to launch a counter. The regime is very afraid, anything can spark off an Arab Spring-like spontaneous uprising due to the explosive conditions on the ground,” says Muleya.
Bruce Mutsvairo, a social media researcher based at Northumbria University in Newcastle, England, says Africa has seen many campaigns of this nature.
“The problem is, in spite of their good intentions, most of these campaigns fall victim to clicktivism, that is to say, many people think by clicking a page, signing an online petition or producing a video on YouTube, they will achieve political change. Mawarire is encouraging a new generation of activists and citizens to speak up and that’s a good thing. But then you need someone to listen, otherwise it’s like fighting a losing battle.”
Mawarire’s campaign has seen him engaging officials, such as reserve bank governor, John Mangudya, in a bid to stop the introduction of bond notes, the first step to giving Zimbabwe back its currency. Mutsvairo believes more of that is needed if the clergyman’s campaign is to be successful.
“The real challenge is to transform remarkable online initiatives such his into offline political engagements,” he says. “No one had expected the reserve bank governor to listen to Mawarire and crew so that was quite an achievement but will he listen to Mawarire at all? Also, is anyone in Zanu-PF willing to engage Mawarire? Zanu-PF officials know the majority of people commenting online do not vote. They focus on the rural folk, most of whom have no idea who Mawarire is.”
That won’t stop Mawarire who wants to continue saying it loud and proud even if he risks going back to Bagdhad.

Say It Loud, Proud And At the Risk Of Ending Up In Baghdad

Let them be gay in the US, Europe and elsewhere, they will be sad people here,” so says President Robert Mugabe at the roadside in Harare in the eye of his anti-gay storm in the winter of 1995.
I cast my mind back to these words when I heard President Barack Obama talk of an end to discrimination against gays in Africa, during his visit to Kenya 20 years later. I cast my mind forward to the look on Mugabe’s face when Obama said this. In those desperate August days of 1995, people railed against homosexuality saying it was un-African and another disease visited upon the continent by Europeans. We investigated and the answer – politely put – is that this is nonsense.
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The big man in Zimbabwe had been on a roll for weeks. The rant at the roadside, just outside government offices in Samora Machel Avenue, to members of the Zanu-PF women’s league, was vintage Mugabe. We heard late on that cold day, August 18, that he was making the roadside speech and rushed to set up our camera. Mugabe, the consummate orator, spoke his mother tongue, chiShona, keeping a weather eye on our crew. As soon as the cameraman had stopped fumbling and looked down the lens, Mugabe switched seamlessly into English to tell the world gay people would be sad people in Zimbabwe.
“It degrades human dignity. It’s unnatural, and there is no question ever of allowing these people to behave worse than dogs and pigs. If dogs and pigs do not do it, why must human beings?” says Mugabe –a few days earlier.
Mugabe had shocked the world with a maiden and an astounding and caustic attack on gays, in his speech to open the Zimbabwe International Book Fair. Now, the book fair was always supposed to be the celebration of reading, erudition and light. In 1995, it was the dim, murky power of brute force that ruled the day.
The Gays and Lesbians of Zimbabwe (GALZ) bore the brunt of it. All they asked for was a stand on which to display their books. The government said no and threatened to withdraw support and the organizers acquiesced and GALZ members were vilified.
“If we accept homosexuality as a right, as is being argued by the association of sodomists and sexual perverts, what moral fiber shall our society ever have to deny organized drug addicts, or even those given to bestiality,” says Mugabe at the opening of the fair. On the way out of the opening I asked Mugabe what his problem was.
“I do not think men should give birth by having wombs,” he replied, surely the answer to another question? It struck us as an obsession too far.
On that night, we ran a TV news item on two black men living in Harare as man and wife. It included a goodbye kiss in the morning that sent shockwaves over the airwaves. Both knew they were risking their lives in telling their story.
If they were in any doubt; the following year, GALZ got its stand at the book fair. A mob burned it down hurling abuse and threats, under the cynical eye of police, at the brave people who tried to run it.
This was a story that reached far beyond the chattering classes. I got to interview a lot of the activists in GALZ over these months and grew to respect them; many working class black lesbians and gays went through hell in the townships far from the middle class book fair. Thugs carried out assaults and burned down houses; families ordered men to rape their daughters in a bid to “convert” them. Even against the background of plummeting human rights in Zimbabwe, it stank to high heaven.
We journalists wondered how a people who had fought against the deprivation of human rights could so easily wipe out the rights of brothers and sisters.
I will never forget the unflinching dignity of those Africans who stood up against it. It is just a shame that so many Africans across the continent are still being forced to do so.

“I Do Not Think Men Should Give Birth By Having Wombs”

On February 21, President Robert Gabriel Mugabe will be 91. He has ruled Zimbabwe for 34 years making him the only leader the country has ever known and the oldest president in the world. The question grows by the day, who will run the country next?
It has been a poor few months for the aging Mugabe. He shocked delegates at the December party congress when for the first time he mistakenly uttered a slogan against his party – Pasi neZanu-PF (down with Zanu-PF).
Prior to that, he had also told a meeting that his foe and MDC-T leader Morgan Tsvangirai had won the 2008 polls by 73%. He had to be corrected on both occasions by his close aides.
Political analyst Rashweat Mukundu says his wife Grace Mugabe, has become the de-facto Prime Minister capitalizing on her husband’s failing health.
“There is uncertainty and concern on the future of Zimbabwe as President Mugabe brutally suppresses any talk of succession and this has stalled policy clarity as no one is sure of the future. The economy has thus suffered hugely from the uncertainty and the intense focus on succession and power issues instead of service delivery and the economy,” says Mukundu.
The wheels started turning on December 9 when guerrilla fighter-turned leader Joice Mujuru, long viewed as a front runner in Zimbabwe’s succession race, was booted by Mugabe as Vice President.
On December 10, Mugabe appointed Minister of Justice Emmerson Mnangagwa his First Vice President and Phelekezela Mphoko, former Ambassador to South Africa, the Second Vice President. He has been dismissed as an also ran in Zimbabwe’s politics of succession.
Mnangagwa took over from Mujuru with help from the First Lady.
Grace is evidently an admirer of Mnangagwa or sees him as a weapon to fight her battles with the former Vice President.
Grace was known for her lavish lifestyle and poor academic performance in the months leading up to the December congress. She recently obtained a PhD from University of Zimbabwe, a doctorate she allegedly never studied for.
With others, she accused Mujuru of plotting to assassinate her husband, in a bid for power. Mujuru, a party loyalist, denies this.
The congress, that endorsed Mugabe as the party’s candidate for the 2018 elections, was castigated by former political heavyweights, like former Zanu-PF spokesperson Rugare Gumbo, as a ‘praise and worship’ function rather than an elective congress. Mugabe is without doubt losing control and it appears his wife is taking control.
Obert Hodzi, a Zimbabwean security researcher based in Hong Kong, sees striking similarities between Mugabe’s last days and that of China’s Chairman Mao.
“When Mao became very old and frail, his wife Jiang Qing and her close associates, Zhang Chunqiao, Yao Wenyuan and Wang Hongwen, created their own center of power preparing to take over when Mao dies. They carried out extensive purges and executions of anyone perceived to be would-be successors,” he says.
“This is exactly what we are seeing in Zimbabwe. We are likely to see the dominance of Grace and her associates for a while and even after Mugabe’s demise.”
According to the Zimbabwean constitution (Amendment No.20 of 2013, the Sixth Schedule, section 14 (4) if the president dies, resigns or is removed from office – (a) the Vice President or, where there are two Vice Presidents, the Vice President who was last nominated to act in terms of the Constitution – acts as President until a new President assumes offices; and the vacancy in the office of the President must be filled by a nominee of the political party which the President represented when he or she stood for election. A political party which is entitled to nominate a person in terms of subparagraph (4) (b) must notify the Speaker of the nominee’s name within ninety days after the vacancy occurred.
Dewa Mavhinga, lawyer and senior researcher for Zimbabwe and Southern Africa at Human Rights Watch, says that section 101 of the Constitution, which says that the Vice President takes over to finish the term of office, does not apply in this case as the Sixth Schedule supercedes section 101. Under this section, the political party nominates and notifies the Speaker of the nominee who takes oath of office to finish the term.
“His party Zanu-PF will nominate a successor, so it means succession is not automatic for VPs and could trigger chaos and instability given that the leadership of Zimbabwe security forces is highly politicized and partisan and could take sides in the succession disputes,” says Mavhinga.
Mavhinga says if securocrats prefer someone other than the First Vice President, the dynamics could tilt dramatically. Whoever takes over must purge more of Mujuru’s sympathizers in parliament and garner support in both the politburo and central committee.
Mnangagwa, a less charismatic leader than Mujuru, could stand against the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader in the 2018 elections should Mugabe, who would then be 94, fail to run as the party’s candidate. Morgan Tsvangirai’s opposition MDC party says they are poised to win the next elections. This would mean Mnangagwa’s long-held ambitions could slip through his fingers.
“All indicators are pointing to a resounding victory of Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC-T provided the elections are free and fair,” says MDC party spokesperson Obert Gutu.
“We are taking very far-reaching steps to ensure that the next elections in Zimbabwe will be held in a free and fair environment that will produce a legitimate and uncontested outcome. For strategic reasons, I am not at liberty to disclose our game plan, suffice to state that the Zanu-PF regime will not be allowed to have its cake and eat it.”
You could argue Zanu-PF had its cake and ate it for nearly 35 years. Food is at stake in the fight. Whoever takes over needs to drag Zimbabwe back to the long-lost position as the breadbasket of Africa.
A grim power struggle will play out first before the green shoots of maize can even be thought of.

By The Grace Of Bob

Last year, in the shadows of the Zimbabwean elections were whispers of a man who took risks by challenging people to question Robert Mugabe’s 26 years of power. At the click of his mouse he passed out classified information that spread like wild fire. They call him Baba Jukwa.
Jukwa, who calls himself a disgruntled Zanu-PF insider, agreed to an interview with FORBES LIFE AFRICA via Facebook to protect his identity. He has one clear mission: To see Zimbabwe rise to its former glory.
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“Zimbabwe is falling, but its people are not, and these same people shall lift it up as they express themselves through the spirit of freedom… But I will tell you without mincing words, even Mugabe himself is possessed by this same spirit of freedom, only that he suppresses it daily,” he says.
Jukwa’s posts included a prediction of a former Zanu-PF member of parliament, Edward Chindori-Chininga’s death, who died in a car accident after revealing corruption in the diamond sector. Jukwa also posted the HIV statuses of Zanu-PF politicians.
In November, reports accused Jukwa of being Zimbabwe’s information minister Jonathan Moyo. Others believe Jukwa is more than one person because the blogs betray a number of writing styles. Whoever it is, they are certainly an insider.
“I have over the past 33 years worked in a place where everything is naked and bare, so it is not uncommon at all for me to know everything and anything.”
Jukwa says he has no fear because he is a dead man already. All he wants is for the country to be free.
“On that day, when the people have finally freed themselves from the chains of oppression and once again Zimbabwe is a shining nation as the ancestors would have had it, it shall be a great day of celebration, mark my words.”
Across the Atlantic lives a social media guru who could be considered Jukwa’s brother in arms. At least he is unafraid to use his own name. Dressed in torn jeans, a t-shirt and sneakers, he looks like an average Joe. His red beard and large earrings may be the reason you give him a second look, but there is more to him than meets the eye.
In 2011, Harper Reed took the job of technology chief for Barak Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign. His job was to gather voters with the use of social media. The strategy was a gem and Obama made history again, this time for becoming the first president to be re-elected with the help of his social media campaign.
Although Reed was working for one of the most powerful people in the world, it was not enough to get him into a suit and tie.
“This one time [Obama] walked out of the office on the campaign and walked up to my buddy Dillan and I and the first thing he said to us was, ‘Ah, you guys must be the tech team.’ I think it was our beards that gave us away.”
Flushed with the success of Obama’s re-election campaign, could Reed consult in the tricky politics of Africa?
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-medium wp-image-31291 alignleft" src="http://www.forbesafrica.com/app/uploads/2017/05/2011-10-23-22.29.00-300x300.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="300" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2011-10-23-22.29.00-300x300.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2011-10-23-22.29.00-100x100.jpg 100w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2011-10-23-22.29.00-600x600.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2011-10-23-22.29.00-150x150.jpg 150w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2011-10-23-22.29.00.jpg 640w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />
“Probably not. For me, if I really supported the person, then yes. The thing is, you must do this because you want to do it and not because you want money. Because it’s politics, you have to treat it that way,” he says.
Reed says it is important to fight media censorship. He speaks of the importance of a transparent government to avoid having the same people in power over and over again.
“In my time in South Africa, I talked to a lot of people about politics and there was this fear of continuation of a single government for a long time without change… If people feel like it really matters to them, they need to step up and solve the problem.”
Unlike Jukwa, Reed lives in comparative freedom.
“People talk a lot of shit on the internet, as you can imagine. It’s just how it works on the internet. People are mean and they can do crazy things. But for the most part, there’s a lot of work done in the United States to make it so that people don’t feel intimidated. I’ve never felt like I had to hide.”
With elections around the corner for some African countries, perhaps it is time to adopt a word that was significant on Obama’s road to victory. A word both feared and revered: Change.   FL

Photo-Oct-27-2-26-38-PM

Guerilla Bloggers

Political risk continues to remain elevated in Zimbabwe. The introduction of a government of national unity (GNU) saw a decrease in violence and human rights abuses but little else. Differences between Zimbabwe African National Union (ZANU-PF) and the two factions of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) are glaring and threaten the future of the government.
A key source of political risk arises from the upcoming election. Southern African Development Community (SADC) member states have reaffirmed their position that no election can take place until all conditions of the 2008 Global Political Agreement (GPA) are fulfilled.
A key condition of the GPA is the formulation of a new constitution. A draft constitution has now been completed and submitted to the GNU for comment and suggestions for amendment. The two factions of MDC have supported the draft constitution and are ready to put it to a referendum.
President Robert Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe for 32 years, is adamant there should be an election this year, but reality is that it may not be before 2013. It is likely the next election will be close. ZANU-PF will be reluctant to relinquish power to the MDC, which it accuses of being sponsored by the West. The voters themselves are eager for change following years of economic stagnation.
The European Union (EU) said it was considering easing decade-long sanctions if the country implements a new constitution; a move that could encourage a free and fair poll.
Politics will undoubtedly trump any economic policy considerations. As such, Zimbabwe is unlikely to see any significant economic reforms to revive the economy of what was once Africa’s bread basket. The indigenization drive will take center stage economically especially as the election draws closer. The indigenization legislation aims to ensure that 51% of foreign-owned companies are owned by indigenous, black Zimbabweans.
The indigenization program, which is in full swing is led by indigenization minister, Saviour Kasukuwere, who is seen as a die-hard ZANU-PF loyalist. One of the thorny issues for the program is the fate of the lucrative mining industry. The government is locked in a dispute with the country’s largest foreign investor, South Africa’s Impala Platinum (Implats). The miner has complied with the law by divesting the required share of the company to indigenous, black Zimbabweans. The government is to get 31% of Implats. The miner has requested that the government pay market prices for the stake. The cash-strapped government has refused to pay. The dispute still rumbles on.
From the resources sector the zealous Kasukuwere has turned his attention to the financial sector. The target is the four foreign-owned banks. Indicative of a rift within ZANU-PF, Zimbabwe Reserve Bank governor, Gideon Gono, has warned of the implications of indigenizing the banking sector, the backbone of any modern economy. The minister of finance, Tendai Biti, also added his voice of concern to such a move. ZANU-PF is likely to disregard these voices of reason and power ahead with the indigenization campaign until the elections. Indigenization is likely to be a vote winner for ZANU-PF. Therefore, investors will remain wary of the country’s investment climate.
Zimbabwe’s political environment will weigh heavily on an already injured economy. The minister of finance in July downwardly revised growth for 2012 from 9.4% to 5.6%. The revision is on the back of a poor harvest, inadequate donor funding and incoherent policies. Zimbabwe grew 9.3% in 2011.
Political uncertainty will surely remain in place until elections are held. Until then, the economic policy will remain incoherent, which will in turn be detrimental to the economy. Zimbabwe’s economy will only show signs of sustained recovery with a democratically elected government.

Tag: ZANU-PF

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