The rumblings of Covid-19’s devastating impact on the tourism industry could be felt deep in Tanzania’s wildlife parks too, where this year, few arrived to witness the annual wildebeest migration.



July at the Serengeti National Park in Tanzania was a different experience this year. The unending savannah looked the same, the animals roamed in their natural habitat and the wildebeest set out to migrate in vast numbers as they do this time every year. But it was the silence that was deafening. Normally, at this time, every year, the park is a magnet for international tourists eager to witness the largest animal migration in the world.



This park was eerily empty, and I was the only guest at the camp I stayed at.&nbsp;



Having gone on safari many times, including to the Maasai Mara on the Kenyan side of the park, and to other parks in East and West Africa, this experience was humbling. Covid-19’s devastating impact on the tourism industry could be felt here too, as tour operators and other stakeholders pivoted in unexpected ways to focus on the domestic market.



The Mbalageti Safari Camp, the property I stayed at, in any other year, attracts at least 75% of the tourists who arrive to see the wildebeest migration. The camp is located on a hill overlooking the Mbalageti River and is one of 37 permanent camps in the park. This time period coincides with not only the annual migration in the Western Corridor, but also the summer vacation period in the United States and Europe, from where most tourists normally arrive.



Shamez Karmali, the sales and marketing director at Mbalageti, admits: “We have seen guest volumes drop by over 90% during this high season… we have been forced to reduce our on-site headcount, due to lack of necessity, as well as manage costs.” In an effort to revive the industry, many local tour and safari operators have had to drop prices, to make these experiences more affordable for the price-sensitive local market. They are hopeful things will pick up once people regain confidence in international travel.



For locals like me, the reduced prices and slow tourist traffic, proved to be advantageous at this time, especially since outbound travel is still not an option due to the pandemic.&nbsp;



A possible boom in domestic tourism was wholly unexpected when Karmali drew up operational expectations for the year at Mbalageti, and he fully believes this to be the case industry-wide.&nbsp;



Even with the current travel restrictions in place across the globe, Tanzania has opened its borders to tourists. But in the short time the borders were closed, the positive impact of it was that many shortcomings in the industry were brought to light, says Collin Fortes, a director at Fortes Africa Ltd, which both the private sector and government have worked to address. One of the key issues was health and safety. The government provided training sessions for stakeholders on how to go about making this better, which in turn has improved the outlook on providing better customer service, especially since competition is now at its peak, adds Fortes. Fortes has since seen a rise in self-drive safari and camping requests from international tourists, but adds these are not ideal conditions for tourists who want a relaxing holiday.&nbsp;



The future of the tourism industry remains uncertain. Fortes and others like him have been inspired to get creative and market packages in line with the domestic market. “The current market conditions would not allow us to be viable if they persist for a prolonged period,” rues Karmali.&nbsp;



But for the mighty wildebeest, migrating across the ecosystems, it was business as usual.



-By Inaara Gangji

Africa. Tanzania. Serengeti National Park. The Mara River Area. The Annual Migration of The Wildebeests (connochaetes Taurinus)

The Greatest Show On Earth Few Saw

Two boreholes, drilled deep into the Karoo wilderness, have thrown fracking optimism into the garbage can. The core samples go by the mundane names of KZF-1 and KWV. They took weeks to drill and cost $2 million. Between them, they have thrown into doubt the dream of unearthing enough energy to power Africa.
The discovery was made by teams of researchers, from the Karoo Research Initiative (KARIN), who spent more than a year studying the vast wilderness in South Africa.
“The more we see, the more questionable the entire thing becomes, whether it will be profitable or not,” says Wlady Altermann, Head of Geology at the University of Pretoria, who inspected the core samples.
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Geologists found there is not as much shale gas in the Karoo as the government and energy companies claim. In 2009, Econometrix, South Africa’s largest independent macroeconomic consulting firm, believed there was 485 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas – the government and energy companies took this as gospel; it supported the case to open up the Karoo.
In May, research by Selwyn Adams, Principal Geologist at Petroleum Agency South Africa, which licenses onshore and offshore gas exploration, says their best model was 183 tcf.
Now, an even more lean estimate has emerged from Doug Cole, Senior Specialist Scientist at the Council for Geoscience (CGS), a parastatal mandated to research South Africa’s geology. He says there could be as little as 32 tcf, a fraction of the bigger amount that caused all the excitement.
By comaprison, 72 tcf is in Mozambique’s Offshore Area 1, one of the most important natural gas accumulations discovered in the last 20 years. The discovery, made 200 kilometers offshore in the Rovuma basin, alone is enough to add $39 billion per year to Mozambique’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2035.
“Initially I think they just took the volume of the base and didn’t consider the dolerites. It was obviously much too much,” says Cole.
KARIN was merely studying the geology of the Karoo and stumbled on the evidence.
“We have not seen a rock yet that would produce enough organic matter to produce shale gas in large amounts,” says Altermann.
“The conclusion of KARIN’s boreholes throws doubt into the original claim of the fifth largest reservoir of shale gas. From these two boreholes, the presence of shale gas is questionable, but this does not mean these results will be the same on other sites.”
The dolerites found could make it even more expensive to get any shale gas out. Unlike the shale gas boomtowns of the United States, the Karoo is littered with these dolerites – high temperature rocks – which burn off gas before it can be fracked.
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These discoveries are likely to strengthen the case against fracking by farmers, who fear it could pollute water. Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, uses millions of liters of water with a 1% mix of chemicals, to fracture the shale to release natural gas at depths of 1,500 meters. This could contaminate borehole water used by the farmers.
Unlocking the mystery of the risk to underground aquifers is Kate Robey, a 30-year-old hydrogeologist at the CGS.
“In the 1970s, a South African-based parastatal called Soekor was mandated to find oil. Shale wasn’t even known then. But, during those explorations they did find gas. It is based on this information from the 1970s that we think there may be shale now&#8230; It is old data that wasn’t even looking for shale.”
There were questions when Robey, who was on site when KARIN was drilling KZF-1, hit fresh water at 560 meters below the surface. They didn’t expect it.
“The Tankwa site, which went 560 meters, hit artesian water so fresh I couldn’t believe the probes giving me the results. I had to drink it myself. We never expected that. We expected the water to be more salty. It may even be that these deep aquifers are fresher than the shallow ones,” says Robey.
Although Robey says this is an anomaly, finding fresh water in Tankwa throws up more questions about fracking.
“Due to the sparse data we have on deep groundwater in South Africa (based on the Soekor holes) we expected groundwater at depths greater than 500 meters to be saline, which could be concerning if shale gas activities were to continue in the Karoo at great depths. If not properly managed or monitored, and there is interaction between the saline groundwater and the shallow aquifers in the Karoo, this could result in irreversible damage of the water.”
“However, on the converse, now that we found that there was fresh water at such depths, a lot more interesting questions and research needs to be undertaken. Such as can we use this hot water for geothermal energy or even as a future water resource?”
This is why Robey will be digging deeper in the heart of the so-called ‘sweet spot for fracking’ in the Karoo, near Beaufort West.
“We need to get these properties because if ever, one day, fracking does take place, it will prove if there is any pollution from the deep groundwater into the shallow.”
It could take up to 15 years to collect the data. In the researchers favor is the current oil price. The drop in commodity prices has given a vital lifeline for researchers to gather the data before legislation goes through. It needs to be above $70 a barrel to turn a profit from fracking; at the time of writing it is $47.17.
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Will fracking mean jobs?
“Let’s get rid of the rumors – fracking won’t benefit the lower class. The actual production through fracking would require high-end technology and expertise, which up to now, is not available in the country,” says Altermann.
“You don’t need people with shovels and hammers. It’s high technology stuff, skilled people will be flown in.”
A fracking future that seems far away.

Tag: Wilderness

FORBES AFRICA SOCIAL MEDIA

The Greatest Show On Earth Few Saw

The Fracking Future Fades