In Africa, the jury is still out on the tradeoff between Covid-19 lockdowns and livelihoods. 



Following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020, many African governments swiftly implemented broad containment and lockdown measures that helped save many lives but which came at a great cost to economic activity and livelihoods.&nbsp;



This is one of the key conclusions of the African Development Bank’s (AfDB) African Economic Outlook (AEO) 2021 report, released on March 12, which critically assesses the costs and benefits of lockdowns. African countries that imposed stringent lockdowns reported lower Covid-19 infection rates, the report finds, after controlling for the use of public information campaigns, testing, and contact tracing policies as well as recurrent shocks that are common across countries, such as weather-related shocks (such as droughts and flooding).



Lockdowns have curbed disease spread in Africa, but less effectively than elsewhere



African countries have been proactive in their responses, taking preventive measures as soon as confirmed Covid-19 cases were reported. Half of African countries with available data restricted international travel through arrival screening, quarantines, bans on arrivals from some or all regions, and even total border closures one day after the first Covid-19 case was detected.&nbsp;



The report indicates that closures of schools, public transport systems, and workplaces, as well as curfews and cancellations of public events, proved more effective in curbing Covid-19 infections than prohibitions on private gatherings and bans on domestic and international travel.



Lockdowns had a more pronounced impact in other regions than across Africa, which saw only modest reductions of about 0.1% in infection cases per thousand after one month, and of about 1% after 60 days. By comparison, using the same approach and data, IMF data from 15 G20 countries found that after a month of lockdowns, Covid-19 cases fell by an estimated 40%.&nbsp;



Why? One explanation is that a significant majority of Africans are engaged in informal activities that do not permit working from home. These informal workers – who are paid daily or weekly, rarely have savings, and lack access to bank loans – are more likely to defy official lockdown measures to safeguard their livelihoods. &nbsp;



The result is that, despite their best efforts, African governments have been unable to impose lockdowns as stringent as those in industrialized nations, where remote working is feasible for a larger share of the population. &nbsp;



Stringent lockdown measures are associated with significant economic contraction, the report finds. In particular, when the index of lockdown stringency increased by one unit, GDP and the industrial production index decreased on average by respectively 0.59% and 0.29% during the first half of 2020 – when the outbreak peaked in Africa – versus the same period in 2019.&nbsp;



A tricky tradeoff?



The pandemic seems to present African countries with a tricky trade-off between saving lives, on the one hand, and protecting economic activity and livelihoods on the other. But this framing is misleading. African countries can successfully pursue both objectives by imposing lockdowns while taking measures to limit the effects of those lockdowns on people’s livelihoods, especially the poor, and on businesses. Finding the right balance between these two aims is crucial.&nbsp;



The AEO recommends a number of policies that could be implemented. For instance, where there is fiscal space or sufficient liquidity, policymakers should maintain fiscal and monetary support to vulnerable people and businesses to enable them to stay afloat. In other countries, international grants and concessional loans can be deployed instead, so long as debt sustainability levels are not exceeded.&nbsp;



Expanding social safety nets to include informal sector workers can protect the vulnerable from falling into extreme poverty. By taking advantage of increased digitalization and mobile money services, governments can provide relief to informal workers quickly and at reduced cost. Lastly, public information campaigns are crucial to securing the population’s buy-in and boosting the effectiveness of anti-pandemic measures. &nbsp;



As the rollout of vaccines slowly proceeds, the AfDB will support countries in implementing the AEO’s policy recommendations. That way, Africa can simultaneously save lives and protect livelihoods.



– By Dr Hanan Morsy and Dr Adamon Mukasa; Morsy is the Director of the Macroeconomic Policy, Forecasting and Research Department at the African Development Bank, and Mukasa is Senior Research Economist in the same department.

DRCONGO-HEALTH-VIRUS-EDUCATION

How Effective Are Lockdowns In Africa?

<p id="h-toplineas-a-dangerous-resurgence-of-the-coronavirus-spreads-across-the-country-state-leaders-are-reimposing-restrictions-on-daily-life-but-one-measure-curfews-are-coming-under-increasing-scrutiny-from-some-public-health-experts-who-say-they-won-t-be-effective-in-actually-combating-covid-19">TOPLINE: As a dangerous resurgence of the coronavirus spreads across the country, state leaders are reimposing restrictions on daily life, but one measure, curfews, are coming under increasing scrutiny from some public health experts who say they won’t be effective in actually combating Covid-19.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h3>



A number of cities and states—including&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/11/19/california-issues-covid-19-curfew-for-most-counties/?sh=76e7f0b3474e">California</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/11/06/massachusetts-covid-curfew-may-not-have-big-case-impact-experts-say/6183084002/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Massachusetts</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2020/11/11/new-york-imposes-curfew-new-restrictions-to-slow-covid-spike/">New York</a>,&nbsp;<a href="http://v/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Ohio</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://apnews.com/article/business-newark-ras-baraka-coronavirus-pandemic-new-jersey-e920f70ebda5a7007c8fa4f135dec539" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Newark</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.miamidade.gov/global/news-item.page?Mduid_news=news1590901593044688" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Miami-Dade</a>—have adopted curfews in recent days in an effort to stop late-night activity, especially at restaurants and bars.



Data on whether curfews actually work is scarce, and public health experts are mixed on whether they will actually have any impact.&nbsp;



John Swartzberg, a clinical professor emeritus of infectious diseases at UC Berkeley, told&nbsp;Forbes&nbsp;they send a powerful message to the public and impact “people eating/drinking after 10:00 p.m.,” who, as a group, are “less likely to be taking precautions against becoming infected and infecting others.”



But Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, is skeptical people will actually comply, and will instead meet in private gatherings inside homes if restaurants and bars are closed, an activity he suspects is spreading the virus even more than gathering in public areas.



Adalja said there isn’t contact tracing data showing that people behave differently depending on the time of night, and noted the virus doesn’t spread any more or less after 10 p.m. either.



William Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/11/06/massachusetts-covid-curfew-may-not-have-big-case-impact-experts-say/6183084002/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">told</a>&nbsp;USA Today&nbsp;that “curtailing the evening for dining by an hour or so isn&#8217;t likely to make a very large impact,” and Lee Riley, an infectious disease specialist at UC Berkeley’s School of Public Health,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.capradio.org/articles/2020/11/20/can-californias-curfew-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-we-asked-an-infectious-disease-specialist/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">told</a>&nbsp;CapRadio curfews will likely “have more of a cosmetic effect than a real impact.”



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-crucial-quote">CRUCIAL QUOTE</h3>



“I’m not even sure what this was designed to do and I don’t suspect they’re going to see any major benefit from it,” Adalja told&nbsp;Forbes. “And then they’re going to say that it failed and we have to do something more strong rather than understanding from contact tracing data how people are getting infected and what they can do to make that less likely. . . . If it’s people getting infected at private gatherings you need a totally different strategy because public health can’t really reach into people’s homes.”



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h4>



A dangerous third resurgence of the coronavirus is&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2020/11/20/more-than-2000-people-died-of-covid-19-in-the-us-on-thursday-with-around-80000-now-hospitalized/?sh=1e365375123d">spreading</a>&nbsp;across the country, overwhelming healthcare systems in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.miamidade.gov/global/news-item.page?Mduid_news=news1590901593044688" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">several</a>&nbsp;states. Curfews are just one restriction state and local leaders are imposing in an effort to stem the spread of the virus. Los Angeles has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-restrictions-los-angeles-county-indoor-dining/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">banned</a>&nbsp;in-person dining altogether. New York&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2020/11/18/new-york-city-to-close-public-schools-again/?sh=862878a214ad">closed</a>&nbsp;schools. Others are putting&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2020/09/17/state-by-state-reopening-guidelines-coronavirus/?sh=72d03e9d533b">limits</a>&nbsp;on social gatherings. Some Republicans are taking the opposite approach, however, and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/23/21591366/foxconn-wisconsin-google-server-component-assembly-contract-report" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">promising</a>&nbsp;not to shut down parts of the economy.



-by Rachel Sandler, Forbes Staff

People wearing face masks as a preventive measure against

Will Covid-19 Curfews Work? Public Health Experts Unsure Of Potential Impact

South Africa’s minister of health, Dr Zweli Mkhize, made it clear on Tuesday evening that if a resurgence of Covid-19 is to come, South Africa is better prepared. &nbsp;



Responding to a question on whether the country will go back to a hard lockdown, at the fifth annual FORBES AFRICA Philips Future of Health Summit, the minister, who was a guest of honor, stated: “The second<a href="blank" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&nbsp;</a>Covid-19 wave has not reached us as yet. We are not immediately envisaging a lockdown level 5. We are focusing on containment measures and are encouraging others to do so.” &nbsp;



He emphasized that there will be enough warning “long before” further lockdown measures should a second wave of the pandemic strike.&nbsp;



“The possibility of another surge is a reality but we are prepared,” he said, at the virtual event themed&nbsp;Next Generation Healthcare in South Africa – Balancing Workforce Expectations &amp; Health System Realities.&nbsp;



South Africa moved to alert level one of its lockdown in September after seven months of international and interprovincial travel bans, strict curfew regulations as well as a controversial suspension of alcohol sales. Returning to a hard lockdown would result in a further crippling of South Africa’s already ailing economy. &nbsp;



“Although we have made remarkable progress, we must remember people are still getting infected and people are still losing their lives. By any measure, we are still in the midst of a deadly pandemic,” said President Cyril Ramaphosa after announcing the advancement to level one on September 16. &nbsp;



And though the president is due to address the nation this week to speak about the developments of the country’s risk-adjusted strategy to mitigate the spread of the virus according to Minister in the Presidency, Jackson Mthembu, the health minister has said that South Africa is better prepared for a second wave. &nbsp;

Tag: No hard lockdown

FORBES AFRICA SOCIAL MEDIA

How Effective Are Lockdowns In Africa?

Will Covid-19 Curfews Work? Public Health Experts Unsure Of Potential Impact

‘Not Envisaging Lockdown Level 5’: South Africa’s Health Minister