TOPLINE Nigeria blocked access to Twitter in the country indefinitely on Friday evening, shortly after the company deleted a tweet by the country’s president, adding Africa’s most populous country to a short list of nations that have barred their citizens from using Twitter:



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h3>



Nigeria: The government&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/FMICNigeria/status/1400843062641717249" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">claimed</a>&nbsp;Twitter was&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigerian-telecoms-firms-suspend-twitter-access-2021-06-05/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">banned</a>&nbsp;for “undermining Nigeria&#8217;s corporate existence,” and the Ministry of Justice has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57368535" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">promised to prosecute</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/05/africa/nigeria-prosecute-twitter-users-intl/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">violators</a>.



China: Twitter and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/major-us-tech-companies-blocked-from-operating-in-china-2019-5" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">several other</a>&nbsp;Western social media networks are barred from operating in China, and authorities&nbsp;<a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/11/21/chinas-social-media-crackdown-targets-twitter" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">have spent several years</a>&nbsp;reportedly&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/chinese-censors-go-old-school-to-clamp-down-on-twitter-a-knock-on-the-door/2019/01/04/1bd462e4-f331-11e8-9240-e8028a62c722_story.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">cracking down</a>&nbsp;on people who manage to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/10/business/china-twitter-censorship-online.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">circumvent</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-is-now-sending-twitter-users-to-prison-for-posts-most-chinese-cant-see-11611932917" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">the Twitter ban</a>.



North Korea: The government generally&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37426725" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">doesn’t allow</a>&nbsp;its citizens to access&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/01/north-korea-announces-blocks-on-facebook-twitter-and-youtube" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">foreign websites</a>, instead confining computer users to a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/11309882/Internet-in-North-Korea-everything-you-need-to-know.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">heavily restricted</a>&nbsp;and walled-off intranet.



Iran: Twitter and Facebook have been off-limits&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/02/technology/iran-protests-social-media.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">since 2009</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/02/02/will-twitter-ban-irans-supreme-leader-next/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">amid</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://apnews.com/article/ali-khamenei-ap-top-news-elections-international-news-mahmoud-ahmadinejad-ab649e2190834e19b1f006f76493645f?utm_campaign=socialflow&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=ap" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">protests</a>&nbsp;and brutal crackdowns following former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s election win, though many Iranians&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-10/iran-s-attempt-to-ban-instagram-is-doomed-to-fail" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">use VPNs</a>&nbsp;to dodge their country’s internet restrictions.



Temporary Or Uncertain Bans: Egypt&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jan/26/egypt-blocks-social-media-websites" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">cut off access</a>&nbsp;to Twitter during the 2011 Arab Spring protests, Turkey&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/03/21/turkey-bans-twitter-and-twitter-explodes/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">banned Twitter</a>&nbsp;for&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/04/world/middleeast/turkey-lifts-ban-on-twitter.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">two weeks</a>&nbsp;in 2014, Uganda&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uganda-election/uganda-bans-social-media-ahead-of-presidential-election-idUSKBN29H0KH" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">cut off social media</a>&nbsp;ahead of an election earlier this year, Pakistan has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-18138278" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">sporadically</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/pakistan-socialmedia-block/update-2-pakistan-restores-social-media-apps-after-temporary-block-on-security-grounds-officials-idUSL1N2M90E0" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">blocked</a>&nbsp;social media sites for brief periods, and Turkmenistan has restricted access to Twitter according to the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.state.gov/reports/2020-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/turkmenistan/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">U.S. State Department</a>.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h3>



Nigeria’s faceoff with Twitter started earlier this week, when President Muhammadu Buhari threatened to deal with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/africa/2021-04-06-separatist-group-attacks-nigerian-prison-as-more-than-1800-inmates-escape/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">separatist groups</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigerian-police-launch-operation-southeast-quell-violence-it-blames-separatists-2021-05-18/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">accused of violence</a>&nbsp;“in the language they understand,” a reference to the country’s brutal civil war more than 50 years ago. Twitter blocked Buhari from tweeting for 12 hours and ordered him to delete the post, which it claimed violated the site’s rules, the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57336571" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">BBC reported</a>.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-surprising-fact">SURPRISING FACT</h3>



Many governments with Twitter bans still use the social media platform, often to disseminate information to foreign audiences. Chinese&nbsp;<a href="https://www.axios.com/china-diplomacy-twitter-7a6b8287-f7f0-4dc1-be8a-0eb146b111bc.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">diplomats</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/05/12/chinas-wolf-warrior-diplomats-like-talk-tough/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">staffers</a>&nbsp;regularly use Twitter to lash out at the country’s critics, Iran’s&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/hassanrouhani?lang=en" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">president</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/JZarif?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">foreign minister</a>&nbsp;are both active on the site, and Nigeria announced its decision to ban Twitter via tweet.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tangent">TANGENT</h3>



Buhari is the latest head of state to face sanctions from Twitter. Earlier this year, the company&nbsp;<a href="https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/suspension.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">banned</a>&nbsp;former President Donald Trump and&nbsp;<a href="https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-dubai-iran-united-arab-emirates-middle-east-b8767244595af326b423316a53635d86" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">deleted an account</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/01/22/959736537/twitter-bans-account-linked-to-irans-supreme-leader" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">ostensibly linked</a>&nbsp;to Iran’s supreme leader. Likewise, Facebook&nbsp;<a href="https://about.fb.com/news/2021/06/facebook-response-to-oversight-board-recommendations-trump/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said Friday</a>&nbsp;it will stop giving deference to politicians when deciding whether to delete newsworthy content that violates its rules.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-further-reading">FURTHER READING</h3>



<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/05/world/africa/nigeria-twitter-president.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Nigeria Bans Twitter After President’s Tweet Is Deleted (New York Times)</a>



By Joe Walsh, Forbes Staff

SAFRICA-NIGERIA-DIPLOMACY

Nigeria Has Banned Twitter — Along With These Other Countries

On the cards this year? More polls, power struggles and ambitious projects.



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>



Whichever way one looks at it, 2019 promises Africa a spot
in the limelight like no other.



A record 22 countries, almost half of the continent, will be
asking their citizens for fresh mandates to rule democratically, according to
the Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa. 



By any measure, it’s a big number of politicians submitting
themselves to the will of the people, especially given Africa’s past struggles
with coups and the rule of law.



Whether those polls are conducted freely and fairly is the
next stage in the continent’s drive to improve governance. The Democratic
Republic of the Congo, Africa’s largest country, started the year rolling with
a disputed election that may yet see an historic transfer of power from one
civilian administration to another.



READ MORE | <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2019/02/10/the-claim-that-democracy-fares-better-in-the-west-than-in-africa-is-a-fallacy/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="The Claim That Democracy Fares Better in the West Than in Africa Is a Fallacy (opens in a new tab)">The Claim That Democracy Fares Better in the West Than in Africa Is a Fallacy</a>



It’s a step seen in only a handful of African countries
since independence in the 1960s, with the likes of Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria,
among others, managing the feat as leaders clung to power by all means
necessary including vote-rigging, outright violence against political opponents
and coups.



The continent’s largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa,
will be among the first to kick-start the process with Nigerians getting the
chance to hand President Muhammadu Buhari another term or hand power to Atiku
Abubakar, a former vice president who was part of Buhari’s alliance when he
first ran in 2015.



In South Africa, expectations are President Cyril
Ramaphosa’s African National Congress will be returned to power with a bigger
mandate. 



Elsewhere around the continent, votes are expected in
countries ranging from Chad to Somaliland but the chances of opposition
victories remain few and far between even as the continent battles a host of
problems from sub-par economic growth to growing indebtedness, particularly to
China.



The World Bank estimates Africa’s economy will grow by 3.6%
this year, but that growth rate masks huge disparities between nations and is
only slightly ahead of its population growth rate of just above 2.5% per annum,
the fastest in the world.



In the meantime, many of its economies are sinking further into debt, just a few years after debt relief that spurred some of the fastest growth the continent had seen in years. 



A 2018 World Bank list of the most indebted countries has South Africa’s 55 million people carrying $792 billion of foreign and local debt, followed by Sudan at $528 billion and Egypt with $299 billion.



But it is the growing debt of some of Africa’s poorest
countries that is beginning to raise concern again. The Overseas Development
Institute last year warned that 40% of sub-Saharan African countries were in
danger of slipping into a debt crisis, adding to warnings by the International
Monetary Fund.



Analysis shows that a fifth of the external debt is held by
China, with another 35% held by multilateral organizations like the World Bank
and another 32% held by private investors. And some of those countries may
begin struggling to pay those loans, according to analysts.



So while there is much to look forward to in 2019, Africa
collectively has lots to do. One ray of hope, is coming from an unlikely
source, the Africa Union (AU). For years, the successor of the Organization of
African Unity has largely remained a political talk-shop, attended mostly by
politicians.



But the last few years have seen change, with economics
beginning to become an integral part of its conversations, culminating in the
launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area last year, an ambitious plan
tying up the continent from the Cape to Cairo.



Building on to that project, was the African Import-Export
Bank, which collaborated with the AU to organize the Intra-African Trade Fair,
the first continent-wide marketplace for goods and services which attracted 42
countries to Cairo, saw some 1,100 exhibitors and more than $33 billion in
deals concluded.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 



If that’s a harbinger of continental resolve to work together, Africa may yet be the place to be in 2019.



Education Quality and the Youth Skills Gap Are Marring Progress in Africa



-Godfrey Mutizwa

NIGERIA-VOTE

2019: Africa’s Year In The Sun

The political atmosphere in Nigeria leading up to the February polls is tense. Challenging the status quo are new and younger contenders promising hope and change.



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>



As the 2019 elections draw close in February in Africa’s most populous country, Atiku Abubakar has emerged the presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) while President Muhammadu Buhari has been affirmed for the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) ticket. 



Abubakar, a former vice president of Nigeria, has begun his campaign against president Buhari by highlighting the popular frustration of Nigerians over the rise in unemployment and poverty (two of the biggest voter concerns) on Buhari’s watch,as well as growing insecurity in central Nigeria. 



Nigeria was recently voted the world’s poverty capital by the Brookings Institution. Consequently, the handling of the economy has already emerged as a major issue at the start of the election cycle.



In 2016, the country entered its first recession in 25 years due to a slump in oil prices and attacks in the Niger Delta oil-producing region. Although emerging out of recession in 2017, growth still remains tardy and inflation is just above the central bank’s single-digit target range. 



Investor sentiment in the country is also low especially with leading telco giant MTN Nigeria being ordered by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to return $8.1 billion to the country claiming it was illegally repatriated from Nigeria.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/GettyImages-460291600-1024x683.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-38074" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/GettyImages-460291600-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/GettyImages-460291600-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/GettyImages-460291600-600x400.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/GettyImages-460291600-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/GettyImages-460291600.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption> Atiku Abubakar.  Picture: Pius Utomi/ AFP/Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



“If the fine is found to be unjustly imposed, it would have a negative implication on the image of Nigeria as a destination for foreign investors. Investors only invest in environments that have laws that protect them. If people are punished when they have not done anything wrong, that destroys investor confidence,” says Bismarck Rewane, CEO of Financial Derivatives, an economic think tank in Lagos.



This will be the fourth attempt by Abubakar to win a presidential election mirroring Buhari’s 2015 elections win. He defected from the ruling APC party and re-joined PDP to win the presidential ticket. In a speech in London, Abubakar unveiled his plans to offer a matching grant of $250 million each to the 36 states of the federation to challenge them to enhance their internally generated revenue (IGR).



Meanwhile,just as the election was shaping up to be a contest between two male political veterans, Obiageli Ezekwesili, a woman with a strong track record in economic leadership has announced her presidential candidacy for the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN). 



Ezekwesili,who is the co-founder of the #bringbackourgirls movement, is perhaps the most prominent woman to challenge for the top job. 



Her campaign for the return of the 276 Chibok girls kidnapped in northern Nigeriain 2014 by Boko Haram sparked worldwide support and led to the return of more than 100 girls to their families. 



Ezekwesili also served as the country’s education minister and Vice-President of the World Bank. In a speech to her party, Ezekwesili said the two men she faces represent a “mediocre political class that bumbles from one crisis to another”. Her campaign strategy is to position herself as the candidate bringing hope back to Nigeria by challenging the status quo.



Also as part of her strategy, Ezekwesili, 55, is trying to appeal to Nigeria’s youth by highlighting the lack of understanding of technological advances happening in the country by her challengers, Buhari, 75, and Abubakar, 71. 



However, in spite of her immense appeal, perhaps the youth might just need a candidate of their own who understands their needs and can speak for a nation where more than 50% are under the age of 30.



They may just have their wish. A welcome development to this election is the reduction of the age by which Nigerians can contest the election for public office. 



The bill, popularly referred to as the Not-Too-Young-To-Run Bill, reduces the age qualification for president from 40 to 35; governor from 35 to 30; senator from 35 to 30; House of Representatives membership from 30 to 25 and State House of Assembly membership from 30 to 25.



Bukunyi Olateru-Olagbegi, a 27-year-old entrepreneur and an up-and-coming political leader, has taken advantage of this new window to register his own political party, Modern Democratic Party. The party is putting education at the top of its agenda and calling for the youth of Nigeria to stand together and have a unified voice.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="828" height="596" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/bukunyi.png" alt="" class="wp-image-38073" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/bukunyi.png 828w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/bukunyi-300x216.png 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/bukunyi-600x432.png 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/bukunyi-768x553.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 828px) 100vw, 828px" /><figcaption> Bukunyi Olateru-Olagbegi. Picture: Supplied</figcaption></figure>



“We offer hope. Ours is a generation that is young, bold and open to possibilities. We believe that if hope can be returned to the heart of the common man/woman, they may once again start to believe in things becoming better. Right now, a lot of parties sing the word ‘hope’ and yet their internal democracy itself is hopeless,” he says.



“The masses are not blind. They see the internal wrangling in these political parties on the pages of newspapers. How then can they truly believe in a message of hope by these same people? Our youthfulness and firm grasp of the complexities and blistering pace of the world we live in today, easily make us,in our opinion, fit to lead. We understand the power of flexibility and we understand what ‘change’ really means. The world needs the youth right now, and we are finally ready to step up.”



He says his party is committed to building a structure capable of winning elections across all political spheres and levels with a resolution to put a spotlight on the downtrodden in society, a society that, according to Olateru-Olagbeji, is in critical need of deliverance from bad leadership.



“As a party, we hope to correct the present for the sake of the future; we hope to harness the mental and resources of my generation with fresh ideas and innovation because this generation is not tied to the prejudices and biases of the ones before us, we don’t see tribe, religion and even gender; we are united in our hunger for success. We hope to inspire a generation of young Nigerians and Africans to work at building our nation and continent, community by community, till we become the leading and ruling party,” he says.



The political atmosphere leading up to February is extremely tense. 



No matter who is contending for the top job, one thing is certain,Nigerians need a new economy, one that provides them with opportunities for growth and prosperity, and they need that, yesterday.

Ezekwesli

Twists And Turns Of Nigeria’s Election Campaign Trail

Two of the largest banking and financial services institutions in the world, HSBC and UBS, have&nbsp;recently closed their local representative offices&nbsp;in Nigeria.



There’s also trouble brewing elsewhere in Nigeria’s business world that’s prompted fears about the climate for foreign direct investment in the country. Foreign direct investment is an investment made by a firm or individual in one country into business interests located in another country.



For instance, Nigeria’s government in September&nbsp;accused HSBC of money laundering&nbsp;after an analyst working for the lender said a second term for President Muhammadu Buhari&nbsp;may stall economic recovery &nbsp;in Africa’s biggest oil producer.



There are also tensions between Nigeria’s central bank and the South African telecom company MTN. In 2015, MTN was&nbsp;fined about $5bn&nbsp;for failing to cut off unregistered SIM cards. This was later reduced to $1.7 billion after a long legal dispute and the intervention of South Africa’s then President Jacob Zuma.



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"> Recently, the central bank has&nbsp;ordered MTN to repatriate $8 billion&nbsp;it said has been taken out of the country illegally.</blockquote>



Analysts are&nbsp;concerned&nbsp;that the Nigerian government’s attitude towards MTN and the two banks may erode the confidence of foreign direct investors. Their fears seem to be well founded: foreign direct investment in Nigeria&nbsp;fell to&nbsp;$1 billion in the first half of 2018, from $1.48 billion in the first half of 2017.



Foreign direct investment is crucial for any economy. So how can Nigeria attract and keep the right kind of investment from global companies? Compromise will be key, both for the government and foreign firms.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Why foreign direct investment?</h4>



Foreign direct investment is often preferred to exporting. That’s because while exports merely involve moving goods from one country to another, foreign direct investment actually involves an investor establishing foreign business operations or acquiring foreign business assets.



This often includes establishing ownership or controlling interest in a foreign country (for instance an American business establishing a physical business presence in Nigeria). Many emerging economies like China, Brazil, Vietnam and India have&nbsp;built their growth on FDI flows.



The trick is to attract “quality foreign direct investment” that links foreign investors into the local host country economy. The International Growth Centre, a&nbsp;British-funded&nbsp;research centre that aims to promote sustainable growth in developing countries,&nbsp;characterises&nbsp;“quality” here as contributing to:



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>decent and value-adding jobs and enhancing the skill base of host economies;</li><li>transfer of technology, knowledge and know-how;</li><li>boosting competitiveness of domestic firms and enabling their access to markets.</li></ul>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">What Nigeria can do</h4>



There are a few things Nigeria can do to boost foreign direct investment. For starters, it must play fair. Foreign and domestic businesses should be treated equally. They should be open, transparent and dependable conditions for all kinds of firms.



Another area that needs attention is infrastructure. Businesses need easy access to ports, an adequate and reliable supply of energy and relative certainty that the country will be good to invest in. 



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"> Good institutions&nbsp;also promote FDI.</blockquote>



The government should encourage partnerships between foreign and local businesses. Foreign firms might be familiar with global good business practices, but local firms will be more familiar with the indigenous context. This synergy could be very beneficial.



It’s also critical that Nigeria gets its regional governments involved: there are many regions in Nigeria, and these regions all have unique opportunities and challenges.&nbsp;



Our latest research&nbsp;shows that when the central government of Nigeria ran out of ideas and foreigners wanted to exit the agricultural sector, the regional government of Kwara state stepped in to create a positive business climate based on the cooperation of local banks, community members, and the foreigners themselves culminating in the&nbsp;Shonga farms&nbsp;public-private venture. 



This has kept the firm in Nigeria. It’s also brought private investors to the table, bolstering the firm and the local economy.



Nigeria should also tap into its huge&nbsp;diaspora. There are many Nigerians living outside the country who understand its challenges. They should be encouraged to help, or asked to work with their networks to invest in the country.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">What foreign firms can do</h4>



Foreign firms also have a role to play. They can enhance their success in Nigeria (and elsewhere on the African continent) in several ways.



First, they need a long term strategic plan. This means thinking carefully about what sectors or activities to target. Many foreign firms come to developing countries when things are rosy but leave when conditions change. They don’t properly consider that solving such problems will gain them a competitive advantage in the long run.



If they stay and follow a learning curve, foreign firms will better understand the local business context. They’ll also gain credibility among ordinary people and possibly get more customers and support that way.



In the same vein, foreign businesses should create local solutions that meet ordinary people’s needs. The banks leaving Nigeria have&nbsp;been accused&nbsp;of only catering to the needs of wealthy Nigerians, who are&nbsp;perceived as corrupt. A more diverse portfolio that catered to the needs of ordinary Nigerians would have nullified this claim.



Foreign firms must also work closely with credible and strategic local firms, and be willing to enter into dialogue with the Nigerian government where necessary. This is crucial especially as administrations may change or government policy may evolve. Dialogue could ensure that all parties are on the same page.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Act local, think global</h4>



It’s unfortunate that these banking institutions have decided to leave Nigeria. Hopefully both the Nigerian government and other foreign investors can learn from this.



The main takeaway for both foreign investors and governments involved in foreign direct investment is that it would be prudent for all parties to act locally but think globally.



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tolu-olarewaju-405190">Tolu Olarewaju</a>: Lecturer in Economics, Staffordshire University</li></ul>



READ MORE |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/investment-guide/2012/11/01/nigeria-invest-not-invest-question/">Nigeria: To Invest Or Not To Invest? That Is The Question</a>



READ MORE |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2018/06/05/investment-marketplace-coming-to-africa/">Investment Marketplace Coming To Africa</a>

Key Speakers At The U.S.-Africa Business Forum

How Nigeria Can Attract And Keep The Right Kind Of Foreign Direct Investment

There is an African idiom that if a man does not eat at home, he may never give his wife enough money to cook a good pot of soup. This might just be true when applied to politicians on the continent seeking medical help anywhere but home.
Africa’s public health systems are in a depressing condition. Preventable diseases <a href="http://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/special-edition-women-2012/investing-health-africa%E2%80%99s-mothers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">still kill a large number of women and children</a>, people <a href="https://www.aho.afro.who.int/en/ahm/issue/14/editorial/health-systems-and-primary-health-care-african-region" target="_blank" rel="noopener">travel long distances</a> to receive healthcare, and across the continent <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/western-cape/where-patients-sleep-on-the-floor-1268243" target="_blank" rel="noopener">patients sleep on hospital floors</a>. On top of this, Africa’s health professionals emigrate in droves to search for <a href="http://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/december-2016-march-2017/diagnosing-africa%E2%80%99s-medical-brain-drain" target="_blank" rel="noopener">greener pastures</a>.
It’s therefore not surprising that people from Africa travel abroad – mainly to Europe, North America and Asia – for their medical needs. In 2016, Africans spent over <a href="http://uncova.com/african-leaders-and-medical-tourism" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$6 billion</a> on outbound treatment. Nigeria is a major contributor. Its citizens spend over <a href="https://www.imtj.com/news/nigeria-spends-1-billion-outbound-medical-tourism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$1 billion annually</a> on what’s become known as <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/features/medicaltourism/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">medical tourism</a>.
It can be argued that private citizens opting to seek medical help in other countries don’t owe the public any explanation, because it’s their own affair. But medical tourism among Africa’s political elite is a completely different kettle of fish and a big cause for concern, because they are responsible for the development of proper health care for the citizens of their countries.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/current-affairs/2017/06/09/pain-women-children-lost-everything/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Pain Of The Women And Children Who Have Lost Everything</a>
<h2>The shame</h2>
It’s well documented that politicians from across the continent go abroad for <a href="http://uncova.com/african-leaders-and-medical-tourism" target="_blank" rel="noopener">medical treatment</a>. The reasons for exercising this choice are obvious: <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-40685040" target="_blank" rel="noopener">they lack confidence</a> in the health systems they oversee, and they can <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/nigerian-health-care/3726922.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">afford</a> the trips given that the expenses are paid for by taxpayers.
The result is that they have little motivation <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-40685040" target="_blank" rel="noopener">to change the status quo</a>. Medical tourism by African leaders and politicians could therefore be one of the salient but overlooked causes of Africa’s poor health systems and infrastructure.
Since the beginning of 2017, President Muhammadu Buhari of Nigeria has spent more time in the UK for <a href="https://citifmonline.com/2017/08/14/buhari-feels-ready-to-go-home-after-treatment-in-uk/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">medical treatment</a> than he has in his own country. By seeking treatment abroad, Buhari broke one of his own electoral promises – to <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36468154" target="_blank" rel="noopener">end medical tourism</a>.
Buhari is just one of many heads of state to find help elsewhere. Patrice Talon, the President of the Republic of Benin, underwent <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2017/06/19/benin-president-patrice-talon-underwent-surgery-while-in-paris/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">surgery in France</a> a few months ago.
The cases of Buhari and Talon, however, aren’t as bad as other presidents who have had decades to fix their countries’ healthcare systems, but haven’t. Robert Mugabe, President of Zimbabwe for the past 37 years, frequently seeks <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-zimbabwe-mugabe-idUSKBN18711B" target="_blank" rel="noopener">eye-related treatment</a> 8,240 kilometres away in Singapore. Jose Eduardo dos Santos who has just stepped down as Angola’s leader after 38 years, also <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-angola-president-spain-idUSKBN19O1SK" target="_blank" rel="noopener">travels to Spain for treatment</a>
In the recent past, some African leaders died abroad while seeking treatment. Zambia’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/aug/19/zambia" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Levy Mwanawasa</a> died in France while the country’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29813612" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Michael Sata</a> passed away in the UK. Then there was Guinea Bissau’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16473457" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Malam Bacai Sanha</a> who died in France, Ethiopia’s Meles Zenawi who <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19328356" target="_blank" rel="noopener">died in Belgium</a>, and Gabon’s Omar Bongo who <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/jun/08/gabon-omar-bongo-death-reports" target="_blank" rel="noopener">died in Spain</a>.
A few fortunate ones made it home, but died shortly afterwards. They include Nigeria’s Musa Yar’Adua who died in Abuja after returning from <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/nigeria/7683904/Nigerian-president-Umaru-YarAdua-dies-after-months-of-illness.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">treatment in Saudi Arabia</a>, and Ghana’s Atta Mills who died in Accra after returning from a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18972107" target="_blank" rel="noopener">brief medical spell in the US</a>.
The picture painted above is shameful. As long as Africa’s leaders keep going abroad for medical reasons, the ambition for better health infrastructure will remain an <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-40685040" target="_blank" rel="noopener">illusion</a>.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/life/2015/10/01/health-hospitality/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Health Hospitality</a>
<h2>Costs and risks</h2>
Countries pay a heavy cost for this behaviour. It’s estimated that in Uganda, the funds spent to treat top government officials abroad every year could <a href="http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/688334-1394344-9hmafbz/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">build 10 hospitals</a>.
Not only do the leaders travel with elaborate entourages, but they also travel in expensive chartered or presidential jets. For example, the <a href="http://sunnewsonline.com/nigeria-not-paying-4000-daily-for-presidential-jet-in-london-presidency/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cost of parking</a> Buhari’s plane during his three month spell in London is estimated at £360,000. That’s equivalent to about 0.07% of Nigeria’s <a href="http://www.financialnigeria.com/nigeria-s-health-budget-grossly-inadequate-feature-121.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">N304 billion budget allocation for health</a> this year. And there would have been many other heavier costs incurred during his stay.
The failure of leaders to improve health care and stem <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-11327505" target="_blank" rel="noopener">brain drain</a> also carries a heavy price. A 2011 report estimated that nine African countries – including Nigeria and Kenya &#8211; had lost <a href="http://www.bmj.com/content/343/bmj.d7031" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$2.17 billion</a> of their investment in healthcare professionals. This figure might be higher now.
On top of this, African hospitals that were previously world class have been reduced to symbolic edifices due to political negligence. For example, Lagos University Teaching Hospital was once deemed to be one of the <a href="https://guardian.ng/opinion/african-leaders-and-medical-tourism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">best on the continent</a>. Recently, it was criticised for <a href="http://saharareporters.com/2017/04/11/jaf-condemns-lagos-university-teaching-hospital-decadence" target="_blank" rel="noopener">decadence</a>. Not far away, Ghana’s flagship national health insurance scheme is <a href="http://www.myjoyonline.com/news/2017/April-13th/ghanas-health-insurance-on-the-brink-over-12-billion-debt.php" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ailing</a>.
Essentially, when people charged with responsibility feel they have no need for public health systems because they can afford private healthcare at home or abroad, ordinary citizens bear the brunt.
<h2>The way forward</h2>
The effective health systems in western and Asian countries that are being patronised by African leaders only exist because they were developed, and are consistently maintained, through political commitment and visionary leadership, qualities that are clearly <a href="https://theconversation.com/african-citizens-have-good-reasons-to-be-fed-up-with-their-politicians-81053" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lacking in Africa</a>.
To bring change, African citizens must start condemning political medical tourism. They must also push for regulations to curb the shameful practice. Taxpayer funded medical trips should be banned and criteria set detailing what sicknesses that can be covered by the public purse. Though a <a href="http://nigeriahealthwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/bsk-pdf-manager/1189__2014_Official-Gazette-of-the-National-Health-Act-,_FGN_1272.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">law</a> to this effect exists in Nigeria, it appears to be <a href="https://www.imtj.com/news/missing-healthcare-law-nigeria/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ineffective</a>. It must, and should work.
Essentially, if the leaders do not experience the poor state of healthcare, they might never strive for any positive changes to it. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tahiru-azaaviele-liedong-338453" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">Tahiru Azaaviele Liedong</a>, Assistant Professor of Strategy, University of Bath
Originally published by <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82771/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />

African politicians seeking medical help abroad is shameful

For citizens of Africa’s largest economy, 2015 was defined by hope, politics and economic stagnation. They will remember the year for its toxic politics, power games, political propaganda, public discourse on socio-political reengineering and economic inertia.
Nigerians were effectively waiting for their new leader to flag off widespread reforms, which was a crucial step towards fixing their damaged economy. For people with the dubious distinction of being one of the most corrupt nations in the world, they also needed to restore national pride.
Luckily, Nigeria’s brand of politics produced a democratically elected president through predominantly peaceful polls in March.
Considered to be a gentleman and excellent soldier, Muhammadu Buhari once reigned over this complex and fast growing nation as supreme military leader between December 1983 and April 1985. Booted out of office by another soldier for being too autocratic – stern, frugal and draconian – Nigerians now wanted him back for those same reasons they welcomed his ejection 30 years ago, albeit with a democratic flavor. Historians will do well to credit him with this ironic twist of national déjà vu.
They will also record his evolution from perennial presidential candidate to President as unique. Like him or not, he has emerged as a national emblem of persistence. Prior to this year’s elections, Buhari had ran unsuccessfully for the presidency in 2003, 2007 and 2011, ending his quest on each occasion in protracted legal battles.
In a world where perceptions become instant reality, Nigeria’s political trajectory to 2015 restored hope in Africa’s political culture and set the tone for other elections across the continent. The emergence of a winner with seemingly squeaky clean credentials – in a nation where graft has become a culture – rekindled investor confidence in the Nigerian economy and once again placed Africa’s most populous nation on the radar of the global community – this time for a positive reason.
“Once uncertainty was removed over the fate of Nigeria, risk levels dropped and all previous analysis has to be recalibrated,” Olufemi Awoyemi, the CEO of Proshare, said days after the elections.
Buhari’s brief was obvious: fix the faltering economy, restore peace and security, and revamp the social and political ethos of the land. The man, however, doesn’t seem to be in a hurry. His unrushed style confounded, and still confuses, friends and critics alike, and has left many Nigerians wondering if perhaps the change they voted for was a mirage. His performance to date offers a mixed ray of hope.
Battling corruption was always going to be Buhari’s forte. He has overhauled the leadership of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), and has been exhuming contractual anomalies and crude oil theft cases identified during the previous administration.
Pleading for patience, his search for incorruptible men and women to fill cabinet roles took almost five months.
He has secured the support of the United States and other G7 nations. This renewed interest in Nigeria will be useful when he goes after ill-gotten funds of indicted citizens and ex-government officials stashed away in foreign banks. The man himself has no foreign bank account.
The war against Boko Haram has also benefited from better regional cooperation. Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger now have a multi-national task force fighting the insurgency.
The Buhari administration is however yet to rescue the Chibok girls, abducted by Boko Haram in April 2014. The world also continues to watch how he will fulfil another campaign promise to cut down the size of government.
The economy meanwhile seems to lack a definite course. Without ministers and without a clear modus operandi for implementing economic reforms, financial markets and investors continue to stall, waiting for direction on key policy issues such as trade and investment, currency and interest rate management.
The president’s 2016 fiscal plan might yet provide some clues to his chosen path in to the future.

Patient And Purposeful

Finally, Nigeria’s ministerial list is out. The four-month-long search for the country’s “impeccable characters” with outstanding records of achievements in business, politics and society came to a quiet end at the end of September.
Senate President Bukola Saraki read out the names of President Muhammadu Buhari’s 21 nominees, the first batch of nominations, for the Senate’s consideration, on October 6.
Constitutionally, the president could end up making more than 2,000 appointments over the next four years of his administration, all things being equal. Every decision, every appointment a Nigerian president makes is subjected to constitutional, political, religious and ethnic scrutiny.
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After a year-long season of political campaigns and elections that left the economy largely unattended to by the Goodluck Jonathan administration, Buhari’s decision not to appoint cabinet ministers in the early days of his administration was a hugely unpopular move.
Nigerians therefore realized very early on that this was going to be a new kind of president.
“Nigeria must first put new rules of conduct and good governance in place,” Buhari told Nigeria’s Guardian newspaper in July.
“Integrity and experience will be central to President Buhari’s actions and decisions,” Babatunde Kwame Ogala, a lawyer and chieftain of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party told FORBES AFRICA. “Beyond the need for a few political compromises here and there, you can see that the president is not someone that can be tele-guided by anyone or any interest group. He’s got a totally independent mindset.”
By delaying and downplaying appointments, the Nigerian leader was not only consolidating his hold on power, he was clearly hoping to replace the profligate culture of the past with a new political ethos. Previous presidents had used these appointments to settle political IOUs, compensating cronies, party chieftains and political sponsors. Consequently, the onerous task of nation building wasn’t always left in the hands of the most capable citizens.
This time around, the Abuja rumor mill was abuzz right after Buhari’s inauguration in May with tales of ministerial nominees failing the president’s integrity test. A glimpse of the first batch of ministerial nominees for Team Buhari reveals what political scientists always said about politics – a game of constantly shifting interests and horse trading.
On the Nigerian leader’s ministerial list were five former state governors, namely, Rotimi Amaechi, Babatunde Fashola, Chris Ngige, Kayode Fayemi and Ogbonnaya Onu; a former national chairman of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); former state commissioners; seasoned technocrats and the current head of the national oil company. The president didn’t assign portfolios to his list.
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Also on Buhari’s list is Chief Audu Ogbeh, 68, chairman of the PDP between 2001 and 2005. Appointed Minister of Communications in 1982, and later Minister of Steel Development, his term of office was truncated by Buhari’s military coup in 1983.
Another nominee, Emmanuel Kachikwu, was in August appointed group managing director of state oil company, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). He is a former executive vice-chairman of ExxonMobil Africa. Within 24 hours of his appointment, Kachikwu received the president’s permission to sack all the divisional heads of the NNPC. His place in Buhari’s economic management team is assured.
Oil exports account for 70% of government revenue. With oil prices dropping below $50 and likely to drop even further when Iran resumes supplies, continuous adjustments in budget benchmarks look certain. The Central Bank has announced a temporary ban on local transactions in dollars. Devalued first in November 2014, and again in February 2015, the Nigerian currency, the naira, still remains under immense pressure as the World Bank continues to counsel for more devaluation. An import dependent economy, a weaker naira will certainly make life more expensive for Nigerians. Analysts say Nigeria is likely to record its poorest fiscal performance in decades this year.
Other folks on Buhari’s list are: Lai Mohammed, a lawyer, businessman and stalwart of the APC; Udoma Udo Udoma, a lawyer, two-term senator between 1999 and 2007 and chairman of several entities, including UAC of Nigeria, Union Bank of Nigeria, Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC); Amina J. Mohammed, the United Nations Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on Post-2015 Development Planning; Kemi Adeosun, a former Commissioner for Finance in Ogun State, western Nigeria; Abubakar Malami; Abdurahman Bello Dambazzau; Aisha Jumai Al Hassan;  Adebayo Shittu;  Solomon Dalong; Dr. Osagie  Ehaneri; Suleiman Adamu; Ahmed Musa Bello; Ibrahim Usman Jubrin and Senator Hadi Serika.
Was the wait for this list worth it? Will this group of ministers, when and if eventually confirmed by the Nigerian Senate, bring a new kind of thinking to the Buhari administration?
Expectedly, the opposition party, the PDP has lampooned the list, saying the president’s proposed cabinet were “a bunch of failed politicians and loyalists who lacked integrity to move the country forward”.
Only time will tell.
<h3>The Faces Of Business</h3>
Babatunde Fashola: The former Govenor of Lagos State did a remarkable job in transforming Lagos over the past eight years. During his tenure, Fashola, a lawyer, boosted infrastructure and made Lagos safer. Based on his track record, Fashola could head the Ministry of Works or the Federal Capital Territory.
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Rotimi Amaechi: The former Govenor of Rivers State was instrumental in getting Port Harcourt back on track during the Niger Delta crisis by securing the city, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) and developing infrastructure. While in Rivers State, he made education a priority. The Ministry of Education could be a good fit.
Kayode Fayemi: The former Governor of Ekiti State is considered an expert in policy formulation and will be seen as a great asset regarding policy direction and implementation. Fayemi, who has a doctorate in war studies, has also been seen next to Buhari in recent diplomatic visits. He may be chosen for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
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Amina Mohammed: She led the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) office in Nigeria. The UN later appointed her in a development capacity role. The Ministry of Health may suit her.
Kemi Adeosun: The former Ogun State Commissioner of Finance made a significant contribution to the development of the region over the past four years. With her background as a banker, she could get a financial position in the next cabinet.
Emmanuel Kachikwu: He was just appointed the Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation. There is speculation that he will be named as a junior minister for petroleum resources, since Buhari made it clear he will manage the oil and gas sector himself.
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A President’s  Search For Political Saints

Nigeria desperately needs to move towards becoming a society driven by data and the Internet of Things (IoT).
Obviously piqued by the inefficiencies and historical shenanigans of national data and information governance, President Muhammadu Buhari recently instructed relevant government agencies to fix the nation’s “data scarcity” syndrome.
For Nigerians, data has become like water – naturally abundant, largely unexploited and clearly unavailable in its useful form to large sections of the human race.
Data mining efforts in Nigeria have at best been a debacle. Without a coherent data management strategy, development is jeopardized. For so long, private and state-owned enterprises have collected the same data for a plethora of reasons. Hospital and airline records are mostly paper-based. Banks collect Know-Your-Customer (KYC) and biometric information. Cell phone companies do the same. A few years ago, the Nigeria Communications Commission (NCC) embarked on a nationwide SIM registration exercise.
The Passport Office also collects citizens’ biometric data. The police, and various driver and vehicle licensing authorities, collect a similar set of information from citizens and drivers. Ditto the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC), which produces national identity cards. Let’s not forget the electoral commission which collects voters’ data. None of these databases connect.
I may be wrong here, but I reckon most African nations never had functional directories – the natural precursor to today’s networks and databases. Today, most of sub-Saharan Africa has leapfrogged this era of data inertia into a new age of mobile economies driven by millennials – with governments, citizens and industries across all economic sectors better able to adopt ‘smart data’ solutions and techniques.
Leading technology firms estimate that 90% of all data generated by devices, such as smartphones, tablets, connected vehicles and appliances, is never analyzed or acted on. As much as 60% of this data loses value within milliseconds of being generated. Humanity presently generates around 2.5 billion gigabytes of data daily, generated by 1 trillion connected objects and devices.
Big data is therefore big business, but the skills needed to manage, analyze, and convert data into meaningful insights are in short supply. Estimates vary, but according to the International Data Corporation, the market for big data-related analytics and services will skyrocket to $125 billion in 2015, and it’s expected to become even larger in years to come.
Technology experts say Africa’s economic and social reforms will be greatly influenced by five disruptive technologies converging at once to create a new continent: social media, mobile, cloud, sensor networks, and big data.
Any one of these technologies alone will be disruptive. Together they have the power to reshape how we think of and build the most basic systems and organizations in our economies and societies: whether it’s how we organize business operations, develop our energy grids, run transportation systems, or structure interactions between citizens and governments.
Few places are better positioned to benefit from this convergence than Africa. The comparative immaturity of the continent’s physical, governmental and economic infrastructures means these technologies could stimulate greater benefits for the continent than anywhere else.
In Nigeria, the need for disruptive technologies is apparent. In the area of tax collection, there is a huge compliance gap. Mobile systems could help tackle the issue of revenue generation, making it easier for individuals and businesses to pay taxes electronically. Hosting city services in the cloud would lead to a more transparent and cost-effective system, while applying big data analytics would make it easier to track fraud and people who aren’t paying taxes.
Africa needs smart energy solutions. Nigeria currently leads the continent in load shedding and blackouts. Power supply for the country has never progressed beyond 5,000 megawatts. Smart meters and smart grids could monitor and manage electricity distribution, while diversifying energy supplies could balance the load. General Electric and a host of other companies have begun to invest in off-grid energy solutions, and telecommunications provider Airtel is piloting the use of wind and solar power across Africa as a backup to grid power for its mobile stations.
African governments will do well to collaborate with the global car industry. Companies in North America, Europe and Japan are developing a wireless technology called V2X. It encapsulates vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communications.
This is the sort of disruptive technology Africa’s political and business leaders should be

Big Data Blues

In Nigeria, citizens, businesses and investors are struggling to come to terms with the absence of a cabinet to run Africa’s largest economy. When President Muhammadu Buhari took office, from Goodluck Jonathan on May 29, few would have imagined that there wouldn’t be a cabinet in place, or awaiting parliamentary approval, by the end of June.
Buhari himself hasn’t said much, leaving the explaining to his aides. At the beginning of July, Spokesman Femi Adesina said that “at the fullness of time, the ministers will be appointed.”
There has been speculation that there won’t be a cabinet in place until September. If that is true, it will mean that the new ministers will spend the last quarter of the year coming up to speed with their new assignments, and real work will not start until 2016.
The only presidential staff appointments made by the second week of July were three spokespersons (two for the president; one for the vice president), a State Chief of Protocol, and his principal security aides – one of which was replaced weeks later, for undisclosed reasons.
On July 13, six weeks after the inauguration, the President replaced all the military chiefs and the National Security Adviser (NSA). The key positions of presidential Chief of Staff and a Secretary to the Federal Government, who serves as Secretary to the Cabinet, as well as a liaison between the presidency and the sprawling government bureaucracy, however, remain unfilled.
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<h3>Team Austerity</h3>
Amid the uncertainty about the president’s team, there are, however, things one can bet on. One is that it will be a smaller cabinet than his predecessor’s, which had 42 ministers. But, the degree to which it will be smaller is constrained by a constitutional provision that says there must be at least one minister from each of Nigeria’s 36 states.
The Transition Committee that Buhari set up in May, to liaise with the outgoing government and prepare a smooth handover for the new government, recommended a reduction in the number of ministries from 28 to 19. Going by that proposal, only nine of the existing ministries will not be merged or scrapped: Defence, Federal Capital Territory, Education, Trade and Investment, Finance, National Planning, Labour, Justice, and Foreign Affairs.
Ambitious as the plan might seem, it’s not unfamiliar territory for Buhari. As Head of State 30 years ago, he presided over a wide-ranging regime of cuts: laying off thousands of civil servants and freezing wages, abolishing hundreds of local government areas, and rolling out an austerity budget that slashed government spending by 15%.
Considering that the economy he is inheriting is in straits just as dire as then, chances of another austerity-inflected outing are high. Indeed there’s a cost-saving element to a delay in the appointment of a cabinet and advisers, who will have to be paid generously in housing and travel allowances, and armored convoys.
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<h3>Speculation, Inc.</h3>
In the weeks following Buhari’s unprecedented electoral victory, the rumour mills were agog with news of expected appointments. Documents regularly circulated on social media, purporting to list the persons who had been nominated for appointments. All of them turned out to be false. Early into the new administration, it was reported that Chief Ogbonnaya Onu had been named Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Nigeria’s designation for Cabinet Secretary. Weeks later, the speculations shifted to the still-vacant position of Chief of Staff. News filtered out that retired Colonel Hammed Ali, Buhari’s long-time personal Chief of Staff, had been appointed. Again, it turned out to be false.
The two men have been close to the president since he joined partisan politics in the early 2000s and are still very likely to bag important roles in his government. Other long-time associates tipped for important positions include Tam David-West, who served under Buhari as the petroleum minister when he was military head of state in 1984-85, and Abdulrahman Dambazau, a former army chief and head of security for the presidential campaign. Dambazau, widely expected to be named National Security Adviser, may now be in the running for Defence Minister.
Former state governors, Kayode Fayemi (Ekiti), Babatunde Fashola (Lagos) and Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers) are also expected to be named to cabinet or presidential staff positions. The trio played prominent roles in the Buhari presidential campaign – Amaechi as campaign director-general, Fayemi policy director, while Fashola oversaw fundraising.
Party leaders, like former Governor of Lagos State, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, are also expected to nominate candidates for presidential consideration, but there is no doubt where the final decisions lie.
<h3>Policy Direction</h3>
Apart from the 800-page report of the Transition Committee, the new government can also count on another 73-page one; the outcome of a two-day summit that the ruling party’s policy directorate, under Fayemi, convened in May; bringing together technocrats, politicians and public officials.
With the support of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and management consulting firm, Bain &amp; Company Nigeria, the summit produced detailed recommendations on several sectors of the government: oil and gas, education, healthcare, security, agriculture and foreign affairs, among others. The reports outlined specific plans for the incoming ministers to implement in the short term, medium term  and long term. As things stand, it’ll be more than 100 days from May 29 before a cabinet is in place, and the incoming ministers will have some recalibrating to do.
For business executives and investors, the reassessing will be an unending obligation. As soon as the cabinet is named, the next round of tea-leaf reading – this time for policy direction – begins.

AA_24042015_54756

2016? NO!

The current spate of opportunities in the Nigerian mining sector is predicated on a true spread of federal powers. Potential investors must be hoping that newly-elected President Muhammadu Buhari gives the mining sector the much-needed attention it deserves.
The sector has been neglected with swaths of red tape preventing it from developing. Crucially, if the mining sector is to succeed then the recently privatized power sector is integral to its success. Ask any Nigerian about the problems they face on a daily basis, you will find it hard to find one who won’t mention the infamous power outages.
When those concerns are transferred to industry it deters any serious mining activity taking place. Unless a mining company develops its own independent power plant it is highly unlikely that Nigeria will be considered as a mining hub despite its mineral wealth. Erratic power supply does not encourage mining companies that want to increase profits while decreasing production costs, especially when commodity prices, such as gold and iron, are trading at record lows.
Having spent the last year as Africa’s biggest economy and touted to have the 19th biggest economy in the world by 2030, Nigeria is expected to employ robust resource governance in accordance with international best practices. India has implemented a policy of backwards integration which has been met with success. Industrial behemoth, Jindal Steel &amp; Power, is a glowing example of how backwards integration can result in financial growth for a company.
It would be remiss of me to not commend the efforts of the previous government to transform the petroleum industry with the proposed Petroleum Industry Bill. Although delayed, it was a sign of the government’s willingness to change what has been a mismanaged government sector. The mining sector has until now failed to develop a legal and regulatory framework that will keep up with international best practices. Like an unwanted puppy, it struggles for care and attention. Instead it is neglected and imposed with an archaic tax regime.
The government must impose trade tariffs, as seen with the ban on the importation of poultry products to entice prospective participants. Additionally, fiscal federalism is necessary so that powers are devolved to the state. At present, the constitution states the federal government owns all resources.
Opportunities in the mining sector are vast due to the untapped deposits that are yet to be mined. Furthermore, the prospect of backwards integration allows for companies to effectively manage their resources.
In its ability to harness an effective framework, Ghana recently hosted a delegation from Zambia to advise the country on how to manage its resources. The government is also talking to the 13 multinational mining companies that operate in the country over the possibility of embarking on underground mining operations.
No man is an island. Despite its economic prowess, Nigeria must seek the help and advice of other countries with developed mining industries. Just like Ghana sought help from Nigeria about managing its oil production, Nigeria must extract knowledge from Ghana as to how to run its mining sector efficiently. Mistakes of the past should not be repeated. Nigeria also needs industrial stakeholders to promote, research and develop the mining sector.
Nigeria does not need to import raw materials for many of its industries. The ingredients can be found in the deposits scattered across the 36 states, all of which can be used as agents of change to satiate local and international appetite for finished products. This is added value but it something that is proving difficult to harness due to porous infrastructure.
If talk is cheap, then the labored rhetoric of diversification without the expense of action will prove costly in the long run.

The unwanted Puppy In Need Of Rescue

In the weeks since Muhammadu Buhari was elected president several lists have emerged purporting to show his ministerial nominees; the frenzied list-making an expected outcome of Nigeria’s speculation mills tilting into overdrive during periods of political transition.
That federal cabinet, when finally constituted sometime in June, will, like all others before it, comprise a blend of technocrats and politicians. What is yet unclear is which of these groups will dominate, and if there will be a critical mass of reformers, similar to the group that dominated the second term of President Olusegun Obasanjo and helped him achieve landmark reforms in pensions, electricity legislation and Nigeria’s foreign debt position.
Buhari has said he will work to downplay the involvement of the cabinet in the award of contracts, and instead remake it as a “policymaking” body. He has also said he will not be depending on the governors to constitute his cabinet. If he follows through on this vow, it will be a break from a tradition set by the People’s Democratic Party, which has ruled Nigeria since 1999.
Nigeria’s constitution stipulates that all of the country’s 36 states must be represented in the federal cabinet. This means that there will have to be at least 36 ministers, regardless of whatever cost-cutting ambitions a president might have. During his first spell as president, Buhari’s preference for a relatively smaller government was backed by the near-absolute authority he held as military ruler.
The finance minister role gained unprecedented power under the Goodluck Jonathan presidency, when its occupant, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, was concurrently designated the coordinating minister of the economy’ – likened by observers to an unofficial prime minister role. Considering the dire state of Nigeria’s finances, and also of its prospects in the short to medium-term, the choice of finance minister will be one of the most important decisions Buhari has to make.
The three people who represented the incoming government at the spring meetings of the World Bank in Washington DC in April – Ifueko Omoigui-Okauru, a former head of the Federal Inland Revenue Service; Wale Edun, who ran the Finance Ministry in Lagos State between 1999 and 2004, and is also a co-founder of Stanbic-IBTC Bank; and Abba Kyari, a former CEO of UBA – have all been tipped to get the job. All three previous Finance Ministers have come directly to the office from the executive ranks of multinational banks – Mansur Muhtar from the African Development Bank, Olusegun Aganga from Goldman Sachs, and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala from the World Bank.
The Petroleum Ministry will also be keenly watched, as it is oversees the lifeblood of the government and the economy. Buhari has previously served as Chairman of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), the national oil company, and Minister of Petroleum, and may be tempted, like President Obasanjo did for all of his eight years in office, to retain direct control of the all-important sector.
Anyone looking for possible insight into the nature of the Buhari cabinet might have to look at the Transition Committee he assembled in April, to liaise with the outgoing government and help lay a policy foundation for the new one. The membership of the committee drew from various blocs: the old guard (like Tam David-West, Buhari’s Petroleum Minister 30 years ago; and Committee Chairman Ahmed Joda, already a powerful federal bureaucrat in the 1970s when Buhari was taking on his first government role), and a crop of younger technocrats like Doyin Salami, a professor at the Lagos Business School, Wale Edun, and Bola Adesola, CEO of the Nigeria office of Standard Chartered Bank.
Some ministries have traditionally been regarded as A-list because of the relatively larger capital spending budgets they wield, and will therefore see a lot of intense lobbying from interested people and interest groups. They include health, federal capital territory, education, defence, works and water resources. Sources say Buhari’s plans to focus on diversifying Nigeria’s natural resource base beyond oil and gas will elevate the Ministry of Solid Minerals into this elite club.
Beyond the cabinet there will be hundreds, perhaps thousands, of appointments to be made over the next four years. Primary ones will include the cabinet secretary (secretary to the government of the federation), chief of staff, principal private secretary, a spokesman (‘special adviser on media’), a chief economic adviser, and, possibly – in keeping with recent presidential tradition – a quietly influential special assistant on domestic matters.

Who Will Run Nigeria?

Winning the 2015 presidential and parliamentary elections will turn out to be the easiest task for Nigeria’s new leaders. Governing Africa’s most populous country will prove more arduous.
Now that the polls have come and gone, Nigerians and the newly inaugurated government of President Muhammadu Buhari must now turn their sights on the hard, serious work ahead: fixing their economy, and the ethical fibers of their multi-cultural society.
This will be no easy task, considering that all eyes (local and global) will be on the retired army general as he seeks to resolve the country’s innumerable social, economic and cultural dilemmas.
“This country has to be fixed&#8230; with the engine running,” Buhari’s Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo, told a gathering of media and business folks in Lagos last April.
No doubt the Nigerian nation continues to be a “disappointing case” despite its crowning as Africa’s leading economy, and despite its abundant resources.
Now, when I say “disappointing case” I do not mean to belittle this GDP badge of honor. I merely want to remind you that (most) Nigerians lack access to potable water, electricity, internet access, affordable housing, quality healthcare, quality education and efficient public transportation, just to list a few things on the development agenda.
“We are actually bleeding on many fronts,” a friend working in the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser to President Jonathan admitted to FORBES AFRICA. “Yet we keep behaving as if we are a Saudi Arabia, which has a bigger economy several times the size of Nigeria’s.”
Nigeria is a classic case of the Dutch Disease syndrome, a term coined in 1977 by The Economist to describe the decline of the manufacturing sector in the Netherlands after the discovery of the large Groningen natural gas field in 1959. This was around the same time Nigeria also began to export oil from its Oloibiri oil fields, in the creeks of the Niger Delta. Sadly, instead of growing in significance and wealth, Nigeria’s Niger Delta communities have become desolate and impoverished.
In recent times, declining oil prices have had a debilitating effect on the country’s earnings. Nigeria however continues to behave like a wealthy czar, overspending, undersaving and underinvesting.
Revamping the ethos of business and governance should be top priority for Nigeria’s new economic and political managers. Under the previous administration of President Goodluck Jonathan, the country’s petroleum sector became synonymous with corruption and murky corporate governance.
Crude oil prices ($115 per barrel in June 2014) now stand around $60. National revenues have declined by 29% over the last nine months. Decades of not saving enough and not investing enough in the economy have now caught up with the nation.
The IMF has called for a further devaluation of the naira, the national currency, which had already depreciated by 23% between November and March. Citizens at the bottom of the pyramid and small business owners across the country disagreed with this advice. Nigerians would prefer a peaceful nation; productive refineries and infrastructure; reforms that restore the professional dignity of the civil service, the police and other public service providers; pragmatic housing programs; deeper financial and economic inclusion and a drastic reduction in the size of government.
In a nutshell, this is the broad agenda for Nigeria’s new government. Nigerians can however be impatient. It will certainly take more than one election cycle (four years) to fix all of the nation’s economic and social woes. A few months is all we need to gauge if the change Nigerians desire will begin to happen under the old general.
Known as a frugal man with little penchant for frivolities and material acquisitions, it will be interesting to see how he attenuates Nigeria’s widespread culture of nepotism. Which brings me to another matter: state sponsorship of religious activities, events and pilgrimages.
Saudi Arabia made $18.6 billion and $213 billion from pilgrimages and oil exports, respectively, in 2014. Israel recorded 3.54 million tourist arrivals in 2013. The statistics for Nigeria’s tourism sector are nowhere near these levels. Which begs the question: who benefits more from religious tourism – is it the citizen, the state or religious institutions?
The agenda for Buhari’s team is certainly not a boring one.

Tag: Muhammadu Buhari

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