The country’s National and Provincial Elections marked a significant shift in the political landscape, this as the African National Congress (ANC) lost its parliamentary majority for the first time, along with the rapid rise of the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party, among others.



The 2024 elections in South Africa have been described by some as the most hotly-contested since the end of apartheid in 1994. The results have ushered in a new era of coalition politics, challenging the dominance of the African National Congress (ANC) and highlighting the rapid emergence of the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party.



For the first time in 30 years, the ANC has lost its parliamentary majority, securing only 40.18% of the National Assembly vote and the most of the 400 available seats. This represents a significant drop from its previous standing, necessitating coalition talks with parties such as Democratic Alliance (DA) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), to form a stable government.



The rise of the MK Party, led by former president Jacob Zuma, has been a remarkable development in South African politics.



Gustavo de Carvalho, a Senior Researcher on African governance and diplomacy at the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), explains to FORBES AFRICA that “the rise of the MK Party as the third-largest political party in South Africa is largely reflective of the internal conflicts and factional behaviors within the ANC over the past 15 years”.



“This development is significant as it creates a major split for the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and requires the party to rethink how to reach out to those bases,” he adds.



The MK Party secured 14.58% of the national vote and has become the largest party in KZN, although it fell short of an outright majority in the province. This shift underscores the fragmentation of the traditional ANC electorate.



The MK Party’s success has largely come at the expense of the ANC and EFF, both of which have seen a significant decline in support. There have been concerns about potential unrest in KZN, particularly due to Zuma’s comments challenging the election results and alleged vote rigging. The authorities are closely watching the situation to prevent any escalation of violence and to maintain peace as the political landscape continues to shift.



Voter turnout was another critical aspect of this election, with a participation rate of 58.64%, down from 66% in the previous elections.



“The lower turnout is due to several issues. Many still feel disenchanted with the options provided to them and are reluctant to vote for any party. This is a similar declining trend we have seen in South Africa for at least ten years,” De Carvalho notes.



The IEC (Independent Electoral Commission) reported handling 579 objections and 24 recounts, none of which were significant enough to alter the election outcome. Despite the objections and accusations of vote-rigging from some quarters, the IEC maintained that the elections were free and fair.



“The IEC’s handling of the election has been commendable despite minor glitches,” says de Carvalho.



“Their emphasis on accuracy and speed, even with the additional ballot, demonstrates their commitment to maintaining the integrity of the elections. This should positively impact public trust in the electoral process.”



The election has set the stage for a period of coalition governance, with significant challenges and opportunities ahead.



De Carvalho highlights the complexity of forming these coalitions, noting, “Parties will consider how these coalitions will impact their ideological stances, particularly identifying views of the ANC that may oppose their own. The DA and the IFP (Inkatha Freedom Party) seem to be more pragmatic than ideological in their approaches, while the MK has specific demands related to the Ramaphosa-Zuma battle.”



Coalition talks are currently underway, with the ANC engaging in discussions with both the EFF and DA.



The provincial results further underscore the shift in South Africa’s political landscape. In Gauteng, the ANC lost its majority, securing only 36.48% of the vote, followed by the DA with 26.63% and the EFF with 12.47%.



In KZN, the MK Party emerged as the largest party with 45.93% of the vote, followed by the ANC with 17.62% and the IFP with 16.28%.



“I grew up loving the ANC because of how they fought for the freedom we have today,” says Skhumbuzo Mnyandu, a business owner from KwaMashu.



“But this year, I have changed because of the problems with the ruling party, and so I have become a member of the MK Party.”



The Western Cape remains under the control of the DA, which secured 53.05% of the vote, while the ANC garnered 21.34%. The Northern Cape is also set for coalition politics, with the ANC losing its outright majority in the province.



President Cyril Ramaphosa, in his address at the IEC Election Results Announcement, called for unity and cooperation, stating, “The people of South Africa expect their leaders to work together to meet their needs. They expect the parties for which they have voted to find common ground, to overcome their differences, to act and work together for the good of everyone.”



The final seat allocations in the National Assembly reflect the new political reality: the ANC holds 159 seats, the DA 87, the MK Party 58, and the EFF 39. Other parties like the IFP, the Patriotic Alliance (PA), and the Freedom Front Plus (VF Plus) have also secured notable representation.



As South Africa navigates this new political landscape, the emphasis remains on working together for the good of the country. The 2024 elections have not only redefined the political dynamics, with the future of the country now hinging on the ability of its leaders to navigate these changes and build a government that truly reflects the will of the people.

ANC Fails To Win Majority For First Time Since 1994

South Africa: The Era Of Coalition Politics Begins

WORDS By Chanel Retief PHOTOS By Yeshiel Panchia



TOPLINE: After a tense week of public and violent unrest that left 117 dead across South Africa, reports of #CleanUpSA have come into effect since Thursday. South Africans have taken to social media to demonstrate how in some areas of the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and Gauteng provinces, which saw escalated lootings and lawlessness, volunteers are coming forward to help in rebuilding looted shops, recovering stolen goods and cleaning up the streets.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-in-photos">IN PHOTOS </h3>



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/15-July-2021-Alex-Cleanup-2-of-3-1024x683.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-51871" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/15-July-2021-Alex-Cleanup-2-of-3-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/15-July-2021-Alex-Cleanup-2-of-3-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/15-July-2021-Alex-Cleanup-2-of-3-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/15-July-2021-Alex-Cleanup-2-of-3-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/15-July-2021-Alex-Cleanup-2-of-3-2048x1365.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure></div>



Volunteers and community members sweep the streets outside the looted and destroyed Pan Africa Mall in Alexandra, Johannesburg, 15 July 2021. The city was relatively quiet as community members and volunteers came out to sweep the streets and conduct repairs after days of unrest and looting. 



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/15-July-2021-Alex-Cleanup-3-of-3-1024x683.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-51872" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/15-July-2021-Alex-Cleanup-3-of-3-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/15-July-2021-Alex-Cleanup-3-of-3-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/15-July-2021-Alex-Cleanup-3-of-3-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/15-July-2021-Alex-Cleanup-3-of-3-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/15-July-2021-Alex-Cleanup-3-of-3-2048x1365.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure></div>



Construction vehicles collect debris outside the looted and destroyed Pan Africa Mall in Alexandra, Johannesburg, 15 July 2021. The city was relatively quiet as community members and volunteers came out to sweep the streets and conduct repairs after days of unrest and looting.



Key Facts



● Since the arrest of the former president, Jacob Zuma, South Africa has been in flames. Following his incarceration for contempt of court, there have been multiple outbreaks of public violence in parts of KZN and Gauteng. Hundreds of shops and businesses have been looted and the government says it is acting to prevent food shortages.



● The layers of this unrest look at Zuma loyalists who want the former president to be free. However, Government has commented that there have been “opportunistic criminals”. But there have been those who have also observed this could be people grabbing the opportunity to put food on the table while getting governments’ attention on service delivery issues in South Africa.



● On Tuesday, Ramaphosa deployed the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) “in support of the operations” of the South African Police Service (SAPS). About 25,000 more troops were deployed Thursday which has been reported as <a href="https://apnews.com/article/africa-south-africa-59f7817632563dcf19d7e212de8046c9">“one of the largest deployments of soldiers since</a>” the end of apartheid.



● This has also led to racial tensions breaking out in some parts of South Africa but predominantly in KZN. According to the <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/2568028/15-people-killed-in-phoenix-following-racially-charged-clashes-cele-confirms/">CITIZEN</a>, Police Minister Bheki Cele took to Phoenix, north Durban, where 15 people have been killed. This follows after several reports indicated that the attacks may have been racially motivated.



● Even though the unrest has slowed down, about 117 people have died and more than 2,000 have been arrested. The Ministry of Justice and Correctional Services on Wednesday in a statement



said that the alleged perpetrators of the unrests that “ravaged Gauteng since Monday” have appeared in various courts within the Gauteng Local Division.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-food-insecurity">Food Insecurity</h3>



South African President, Cyril Ramaphosa on Monday in his address warned that if the unrest continued, the situation could lead to food insecurity. According to a report released by<a href="https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/agriculture/071621-unrest-in-south-africa-disrupts-agricultural-logistics-raises-food-security-concerns"> S&amp;P Global</a>, the unrests have had an impact on agriculture in South Africa.



“Unrest in South Africa&#8217;s eastern provinces is posing a threat to the country&#8217;s already precarious food security situation by disrupting agricultural trade and transportation, and damaging infrastructure and planted crops in the region,” the report stated.



&#8220;The biggest risk in the short-term is the free movement of goods, including food and agricultural produce on the roads, specifically to and from the Durban port,&#8221; said Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa.

15 July 2021 Alex Cleanup (1 of 3)

Rebuild And Repair: Community Members Unite To Clean Up South Africa After Days Of Devastation

WORDS By Chanel Retief PHOTOS By Yeshiel Panchia



TOPLINE: For the past two days, South Africa’s president Cyril Ramaphosa has met with leaders of political parties represented in the National Assembly. In his meeting, he told leaders that the government is intensifying its efforts and working in partnership with civil society to stem public violence affecting various parts of South Africa.



Key Facts



● South Africa has been mired in lawlessness and civil unrest since Saturday night following the arrest of former president Jacob Zuma. Though believed to be under the banner of #FreeZuma, Ramaphosa on Sunday told the nation that these were also “opportunistic acts of criminality”.



● According to a statement released by the presidency this afternoon, leaders of political parties have characterized the situation in the country as an attack on the democratic order. Furthermore, they believe that this unrest requires a multifaceted response in the long-term as it has already affected unemployment and poverty in South Africa.



● The riots have left businesses in disarray, either looted, vandalized, and/or destroyed across parts of<a href="https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1eDx6D_PEhXr9YIzIjWfw6ZXKFs_wiZ5D" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"> KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and Gauteng province</a>s. 



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● Ramaphosa on Monday in his address warned that if the unrest continued, the situation could lead to food insecurity as well as to an overwhelming of public health systems. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, some stores across South Africa witnessed long queues and empty shelves with disrupted supply chains. 



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">The stockpiling has started. Long queues in grocery stores. It’s a mess! <a href="https://t.co/0EGzjwSwNV">pic.twitter.com/0EGzjwSwNV</a>&mdash; Nathi Ndamase (@nathi_ndamase) <a href="https://twitter.com/nathi_ndamase/status/1415260694761594884?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 14, 2021</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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● This also includes some retail stores that specialize in selling medication, such as Clicks, which have been forced to close “some stores until further notice for the safety of our staff and customers”.



● “The looting and destruction of property are alarming,” said Busisiwe Mavuso, Chief Executive Officer of Business Leadership South Africa, in a statement. “This is inflicting further damage to the economy which is already at stretching point because of lockdown restrictions.”



● This has also affected the Covid-19 vaccine rollout in KZN and Gauteng as inoculations at some centers have had to be suspended due to the riots. “This will have lasting effects on our ability to consolidate some of the progress we were already witnessing in our economic recovery,” Ramaphosa said on Monday.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-in-photos">In Photos</h3>



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-2-of-5-1024x683.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-51833" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-2-of-5-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-2-of-5-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-2-of-5-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-2-of-5-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-2-of-5-2048x1365.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure></div>



A young boy lies dead as his family mourns besides his body after he was allegedly shot by taxi association members supporting police in Vosloorus, Johannesburg, 14 July 2021. This was during the course of a conflict between the police, taxi association members and looters of a nearby mall. Picture: Yeshiel Panchia



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-3-of-5-1024x683.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-51834" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-3-of-5-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-3-of-5-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-3-of-5-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-3-of-5-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-3-of-5-2048x1365.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure></div>



A shopping center stands completely looted and destroyed in Vosloorus, Johannesburg, 14 July 2021. Looters ravaged the center over the last few days, which saw three people killed. Picture: Yeshiel Panchia



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-4-of-5-1024x683.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-51835" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-4-of-5-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-4-of-5-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-4-of-5-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-4-of-5-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-4-of-5-2048x1365.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure></div>



*Moande, a store owner, stands in front of his looted and destroyed shop in Chris Hani Mall in Vosloorus, Johannesburg, 14 July 2021. Over the last few days, his shop has been destroyed, his stock looted, and he stated that he will have to lay off the workers he previously employed as he closes down. Picture: Yeshiel Panchia



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-5-of-5-1024x683.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-51836" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-5-of-5-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-5-of-5-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-5-of-5-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-5-of-5-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/14-July-2021-Forbes-5-of-5-2048x1365.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



Taxi association members gather men they allegedly caught looting outside Chris Hani Mall in Vosloorus, Johannesburg, 14 July 2021. Many of the association members turned out to defend the malls, with at least one dead, attributed to their use of live weapons. Police did not interfere in any of their actions. Picture: Yeshiel Panchia



This is a developing story and FORBES AFRICA will provide updates.

14 July 2021 Forbes (1 of 5)

Panic Buying, Political Meetings And The Pain Of Business

President Cyril Ramaphosa deploys the SANDF and calls to restore order in South Africa after looting, vandalism and violence leave 11 dead and many injured.



Just a day after addressing the nation about strengthened Covid-19 lockdown restrictions until July 25, South African president Cyril Ramaphosa was back on TV screens again “with a heavy heart”, this time on the government’s response to the public violence and unrest currently ravaging parts of the country.



The vandalism, looting, riots, “political protests” and “anarchy” over the last three days have led to the army being called in to “protect property and safeguard social and economic infrastructure”, as the president stated in his address on Monday evening, July 12.



“As the Commander-in-Chief of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF), I have today authorized the deployment of Defence Force personnel in support of the operations of the South African Police Service (SAPS).”



The protests, sparked by the arrest of South Africa’s former president Jacob Zuma for contempt of court last week, began in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), Zuma’s homestead where he is currently incarcerated at the Estcourt Correctional Centre. The civil unrest saw an estimated <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/current-affairs/2021/07/11/south-africa-protests-and-unrest-grow-over-zuma-arrest/">$7 million in damages with over 30 trucks set alight.</a> The protests continued in Gauteng, South Africa’s economic hub, in places such as Soweto, Jeppetown and Alexandra.



Social media has been agog with dramatic scenes of the state of affairs: videos of people running into shopping centers, malls, and/or shops being destroyed and/or vandalized. Many experts, politicians, and citizens, including the president, questioned if these protests were really under the banner of the #FreeZuma campaign.



“What we are witnessing now are opportunistic acts of criminality, with groups of people instigating chaos merely as a cover for looting and theft,” Ramaphosa said. “There is no grievance, nor any political cause, that can justify the violence and destruction that we have seen in parts of KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng.”



So far, over 11 people have been declared dead due to the unrest; 166 suspects have been arrested in KZN and 323 suspects arrested in Gauteng concerning these incidents.



“Many South Africans are at this hour counting the cost to their livelihoods and property, to their shops and businesses, to their safety and security. Many more South Africans are feeling anxious and afraid,” Ramaphosa added in his address.



“This means that our sick cannot get medication from pharmacies, food does not reach supermarket shelves, and health workers cannot go to work.”



The incidents of the last few days have disrupted the country’s ongoing Covid-19 vaccination drive that had been gathering momentum.



With the number of Covid-19 cases still surging, the cost of these protests on the economy may be dire.



<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-12/rand-slumps-with-south-african-riots-spreading-amid-covid-surge">Bloomberg</a> reported that South Africa’s rand collapsed to “its weakest level” against the dollar due to the unrest. The rand declined as much as 2% and was 1.7% weaker at 14.4681 per dollar by today heading for its weakest level since April 30.



“The victims of the violence that is unfolding now are the workers, the truck drivers, the business owners, the parents and families of those who have lost their lives, who have done nothing wrong,” Ramaphosa added.



This is a developing story and FORBES AFRICA will provide updates as the story progresses.

Durban shopping centres and businesses looted over the weekend

Continued Riots And Anarchy In South Africa, The Military To Help Police

For the last three days, since South Africa’s former president Jacob Zuma began his jail term for contempt of court, the country has been mired in protests with pro-Zuma supporters voicing their displeasure. The demonstrations have centered around KwaZulu-Natal, the home province of the former president where he is incarcerated, with major highways barricaded by burning tires, over 30 trucks set alight and an estimated $7 million in damages. Late last night, the protests spread into South Africa’s economic hub Gauteng and continued today, with at least one confirmed death and another two people reported shot. All major roads in Johannesburg CBD experienced some disruption, with many areas of the city looking like a warzone. Some major roads such as Jules Street in the city saw multiple shops looted, with liquor stores particularly targeted as South Africa continues under a lockdown which includes a strict ban on the sale of alcohol. Dozens of car dealerships were burned to the ground with vehicles inside them.



The country continues under lockdown Level 4 until the 25th of July. FORBES AFRICA is on the ground and will provide updates as the story progresses.

11 July 2021 Zuma Protests Forbes (1 of 1)

South Africa: Protests And Unrest Grow Over Zuma Arrest

South Africa woke up to TV images of its former president Jacob Zuma’s convoy arriving at the Estcourt Correctional Centre in KwaZulu-Natal where he handed himself over to police to begin serving a 15-month sentence for contempt of court.



Former South African President Jacob Zuma has been admitted to Estcourt Correctional Centre in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, to begin serving his 15-month sentence on contempt of court charges, after handing himself over to police in the early hours of Thursday morning.



Zuma’s compliance and subsequent incarceration follows a tense few days at the former president’s homestead in Nkandla, where Zuma, his allies and supporters, made statements illustrating his intent not to comply with the court order.



Zuma’s attorneys made a last-minute attempt to stay his arrest, arguing that his incarceration was a threat to his life and based on attempts to vilify the former president; “… based purely on vindictiveness and desire to see Zuma punished…” said Zuma’s counsel Dali Mpofu during an urgent High Court hearing on Tuesday.



The Constitutional Court handed down the sentence against Zuma on June 29 in a judgement that has had profound legal and political implications for South Africa. The first custodial sentence ever passed by the court follows Zuma’s refusal to appear at the Zondo Commission of Inquiry into Allegations of State Capture earlier in the year. Acting Chief Justice Sisi Khampepe was firm in her pronouncement of the judgement: “I order an unsuspended sentence of imprisonment of 15 months. I do so in the knowledge that this cannot properly capture the damage that Mr Zuma has done to the dignity and integrity of the judicial system of a democratic and constitutional nation. He owes this sentence in respect of violating not only this Court, nor even just the sanctity of the Judiciary, but to the nation he once promised to lead and to the Constitution he once vowed to uphold.”



Hundreds of Zuma’s supporters gathered outside his home in Nkandla since last week to protest the impending arrest, in breach of South African Covid-19 regulations, with some attendees discharging firearms into the air. However, South African police were hesitant to make arrests or enforce Covid guidelines for fear of sparking violence – reflected in Minister of Police Bheki Cele’s writing to the Constitutional Court to query whether the Police Service should proceed with Zuma’s arrest warrant despite a lower court application to set the said warrant aside.



However, with no response from the Constitutional Court by late on Wednesday afternoon, a large police presence, which included an air wing and specialized units, could be seen mobilizing some 100km from Zuma’s home, preparing to enforce the warrant and arrest Zuma. By this point, only a handful of die-hard supporters and relatives remained outside Zuma’s home.



“We will be stopping anybody who will want to incarcerate Jacob Zuma… They will have to shed blood for that because we are going to be defending him with our lives,” said Edward Zuma, the former president’s eldest son, as he gathered with fellow supporters outside Nkandla late last night.



Despite the strong rhetoric from many Zuma allies and fears of violence, Zuma left his homestead in the early hours of this morning in a motorcade, handing himself over to police at Estcourt Correctional Centre, where he is currently in Covid-19 isolation as is protocol, Correctional Services spokesperson Singabakho Nxumalo confirmed in a statement. Details regarding his incarceration are expected to be announced at a media briefing later today.



It’s the first time a former president has been jailed in post-apartheid South Africa and Zuma’s incarceration is being regarded as a landmark for judicial enforcement in the country.



Many political parties issued statements noting Zuma’s compliance with the court, including the African National Congress. “Former President Jacob Zuma’s decision to abide by the incarceration order was truly a brave and hard decision to make. We wish him well”.



Zuma’s stay in prison could potentially be extended pending the outcome of outstanding criminal cases against him.

4 July 2021 FORBES

President To Prisoner: A Week Of Defiance And A Night Of Surrender

Two of the largest banking and financial services institutions in the world, HSBC and UBS, have&nbsp;recently closed their local representative offices&nbsp;in Nigeria.



There’s also trouble brewing elsewhere in Nigeria’s business world that’s prompted fears about the climate for foreign direct investment in the country. Foreign direct investment is an investment made by a firm or individual in one country into business interests located in another country.



For instance, Nigeria’s government in September&nbsp;accused HSBC of money laundering&nbsp;after an analyst working for the lender said a second term for President Muhammadu Buhari&nbsp;may stall economic recovery &nbsp;in Africa’s biggest oil producer.



There are also tensions between Nigeria’s central bank and the South African telecom company MTN. In 2015, MTN was&nbsp;fined about $5bn&nbsp;for failing to cut off unregistered SIM cards. This was later reduced to $1.7 billion after a long legal dispute and the intervention of South Africa’s then President Jacob Zuma.



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"> Recently, the central bank has&nbsp;ordered MTN to repatriate $8 billion&nbsp;it said has been taken out of the country illegally.</blockquote>



Analysts are&nbsp;concerned&nbsp;that the Nigerian government’s attitude towards MTN and the two banks may erode the confidence of foreign direct investors. Their fears seem to be well founded: foreign direct investment in Nigeria&nbsp;fell to&nbsp;$1 billion in the first half of 2018, from $1.48 billion in the first half of 2017.



Foreign direct investment is crucial for any economy. So how can Nigeria attract and keep the right kind of investment from global companies? Compromise will be key, both for the government and foreign firms.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Why foreign direct investment?</h4>



Foreign direct investment is often preferred to exporting. That’s because while exports merely involve moving goods from one country to another, foreign direct investment actually involves an investor establishing foreign business operations or acquiring foreign business assets.



This often includes establishing ownership or controlling interest in a foreign country (for instance an American business establishing a physical business presence in Nigeria). Many emerging economies like China, Brazil, Vietnam and India have&nbsp;built their growth on FDI flows.



The trick is to attract “quality foreign direct investment” that links foreign investors into the local host country economy. The International Growth Centre, a&nbsp;British-funded&nbsp;research centre that aims to promote sustainable growth in developing countries,&nbsp;characterises&nbsp;“quality” here as contributing to:



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>decent and value-adding jobs and enhancing the skill base of host economies;</li><li>transfer of technology, knowledge and know-how;</li><li>boosting competitiveness of domestic firms and enabling their access to markets.</li></ul>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">What Nigeria can do</h4>



There are a few things Nigeria can do to boost foreign direct investment. For starters, it must play fair. Foreign and domestic businesses should be treated equally. They should be open, transparent and dependable conditions for all kinds of firms.



Another area that needs attention is infrastructure. Businesses need easy access to ports, an adequate and reliable supply of energy and relative certainty that the country will be good to invest in. 



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"> Good institutions&nbsp;also promote FDI.</blockquote>



The government should encourage partnerships between foreign and local businesses. Foreign firms might be familiar with global good business practices, but local firms will be more familiar with the indigenous context. This synergy could be very beneficial.



It’s also critical that Nigeria gets its regional governments involved: there are many regions in Nigeria, and these regions all have unique opportunities and challenges.&nbsp;



Our latest research&nbsp;shows that when the central government of Nigeria ran out of ideas and foreigners wanted to exit the agricultural sector, the regional government of Kwara state stepped in to create a positive business climate based on the cooperation of local banks, community members, and the foreigners themselves culminating in the&nbsp;Shonga farms&nbsp;public-private venture. 



This has kept the firm in Nigeria. It’s also brought private investors to the table, bolstering the firm and the local economy.



Nigeria should also tap into its huge&nbsp;diaspora. There are many Nigerians living outside the country who understand its challenges. They should be encouraged to help, or asked to work with their networks to invest in the country.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">What foreign firms can do</h4>



Foreign firms also have a role to play. They can enhance their success in Nigeria (and elsewhere on the African continent) in several ways.



First, they need a long term strategic plan. This means thinking carefully about what sectors or activities to target. Many foreign firms come to developing countries when things are rosy but leave when conditions change. They don’t properly consider that solving such problems will gain them a competitive advantage in the long run.



If they stay and follow a learning curve, foreign firms will better understand the local business context. They’ll also gain credibility among ordinary people and possibly get more customers and support that way.



In the same vein, foreign businesses should create local solutions that meet ordinary people’s needs. The banks leaving Nigeria have&nbsp;been accused&nbsp;of only catering to the needs of wealthy Nigerians, who are&nbsp;perceived as corrupt. A more diverse portfolio that catered to the needs of ordinary Nigerians would have nullified this claim.



Foreign firms must also work closely with credible and strategic local firms, and be willing to enter into dialogue with the Nigerian government where necessary. This is crucial especially as administrations may change or government policy may evolve. Dialogue could ensure that all parties are on the same page.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Act local, think global</h4>



It’s unfortunate that these banking institutions have decided to leave Nigeria. Hopefully both the Nigerian government and other foreign investors can learn from this.



The main takeaway for both foreign investors and governments involved in foreign direct investment is that it would be prudent for all parties to act locally but think globally.



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tolu-olarewaju-405190">Tolu Olarewaju</a>: Lecturer in Economics, Staffordshire University</li></ul>



READ MORE |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/investment-guide/2012/11/01/nigeria-invest-not-invest-question/">Nigeria: To Invest Or Not To Invest? That Is The Question</a>



READ MORE |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2018/06/05/investment-marketplace-coming-to-africa/">Investment Marketplace Coming To Africa</a>

Key Speakers At The U.S.-Africa Business Forum

How Nigeria Can Attract And Keep The Right Kind Of Foreign Direct Investment

It proved a day short on time in court and big on political posturing and speeches. The former president of South Africa Jacob Zuma’s appearance lasted a mere 10 minutes, on April 6, and the trial postponed until June 8 – yet he managed to make political capital out of his day in court in Durban.
On a bright sunny day in the coastal city of Durban in the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Province of South Africa, the former head of state stood trial in his own court. Almost 10 years ago, 10 days after this day, 18 charges on 783 counts of fraud, corruption, money laundering and racketeering were dropped against Jacob Zuma by former National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) boss Mokotedi Mpshe.
This decision was said to have been based on the recordings of the so-called ‘spy tapes’, which were presented to Mpshe by Zuma&#8217;s legal team. And almost a decade later, Zuma stands trial in the same court for the same charges which were reinstated by now NPA boss Shaun Abrahams.
The court was packed to full capacity with only 25 journalist allowed inside. Media came from all over the country, the continent and the world. Night vigils and pickets were held outside the night before the court case and on the day the case took place, led by different organizations supporting the former president. These organizations included Transform RSA, Black First Land First led by Andile Mngxitama, student groups from various KZN universities and members of the African National Congress (ANC) ruling party who claimed not to be operating under the party’s name.
The National Executive Committee (NEC) of the ANC made an announcement a week before the trial that members of the party who liked to support Msholozi, as Zuma is affectionately called, could do so in their own personal capacity and not wear any party regalia. However, ANC members who attended actually did the opposite and when asked if they were defying their own party, countered “you cannot have an ANC without Jacob Zuma”.
Thousands of supporters in front of the Durban High Court chanted struggle songs and praised Zuma.
Zuma addressed the crowds after spending close to 15 minutes inside the court room.
“I keep asking them what have I done for them to keep trying to bring me down but they have no answers but one day they will,” he said.
Among the top-ranking ANC officials in KZN was the province’s MEC for Economic Development and Tourism Sihle Zikalala who vowed to aid in defending the former president.
What is clear is that the ANC in KZN is still divided, with its members committing to prove Zuma’s innocence and unseating current president Ramaphosa before the 2019 elections. On the other hand, some others are calling for his prosecution by the court of law.
This case may take years to be concluded and political wars in the province may not augur well for the ANC.

G20 Nations Hold Hamburg Summit

Prosecution And Praise For Jacob Zuma

Africa’s most robust and developed economy is on the cusp of an economic revival after the long-awaited change of guard at the top.
South Africa’s economy has struggled against downgrades by the ratings agencies and a flight of foreign investors in several difficult years that have left the country with miniscule growth.
The big obstacle to change was President Jacob Zuma whose unpopularity and poor management of the economy, amid clouds of corruption allegations, threatened to bury the once all powerful African National Congress (ANC). In the good times, a decade ago, when the economy was growing at a healthy 5%, the leaders of the ANC boasted they would rule until Jesus came back. The penny slowly dropped for the party faithful that if economic times got steadily harder, feeding a rising opposition, the party may struggle to rule until the end of the next elections in 2019.
Pressure for change came from even the most die-hard ANC members for Zuma to resign. He refused; the party bigwigs gave him a deadline and at the eleventh hour, just before midnight on February 14, he did so live on TV. In many ways, he had little choice; his party comrades were plotting to throw him out through a humiliating vote of no confidence in Parliament, in Cape Town, also live on TV. He would also have lost his pension, security and benefits in the process.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2018/02/15/zumas-time-mean-south-africa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Zuma&#8217;s time is up &#8211; but does it mean for South Africa</a>
For a former head of intelligence, Zuma appeared strangely out of touch with what people were thinking.
“What have I done?” was his reaction to the decision by the ANC to recall him. A cursory flick through the business pages of the newspapers would have told him: Job losses and unemployment running at more than one in four; falling business confidence and tales of millions of taxpayers’ money slushing into private pockets rather than public projects.
Into the breach stepped Cyril Ramaphosa, the former deputy president who was sworn in as the country’s new leader, in Cape Town on February 15, with a promise to clean up and pep up the economy. He is seen as the business friendly president and a pragmatic negotiator with vast experience from the picket line to the boardroom.
“Issues to do with corruption, issues of how we can straighten out our state-owned enterprises and how we deal with ‘state capture’ are issues that are on our radar screen,” says Ramaphosa as he was elected as president, unopposed, in Parliament.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/08/16/lack-accountability-marikana-says-zumas-government/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: What the lack of accountability for Marikana says about Zuma&#8217;s government</a>
Many of the business leaders I have spoken to, from Davos to Johannesburg, agree that if Ramaphosa turns his words into action they will invest with confidence.
“You are going to see millions of dollars flooding into this country in the next six months,” says Gary Booysen of Rand Swiss in Johannesburg.
The markets appeared to agree and surged with the rand. The currency reached highs not seen since May 2015, the last halcyon days of the economy. Three days of madness, in December 2015, put paid to that when Zuma sacked respected finance minister, Nhanlha Nene, replaced him with rookie Des Van Rooyen the next day and him, under duress, with former finance minister Pravin Gordhan the day after. The president sacked Gordhan in March 2017 and replaced him with another rookie Malusi Gigaba – the rand and confidence plunged, as did the ratings.
Ramaphosa – a multi-millionaire who has made his money from black empowerment and shrewd business decisions – wants a legacy of being the man who helped his country out of the mire. He has deep roots in the liberation movement and anyone who knows him will tell you he would want to be remembered as the best leader of his country since Nelson Mandela.
Anyone who has their money and pension tied up in South Africa will hope that he does so.

Zuma’s gone. Let’s go!

South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) is mired in a serious leadership crisis, and President Jacob Zuma faces an ignominious end to his political career. The 74-year-old has refused to take responsibility amid corruption and conspiracy charges. Having been <a href="https://theconversation.com/cyril-ramaphosa-prepares-to-confront-south-africas-bleak-future-89410" target="_blank" rel="noopener">replaced as party president by Cyril Ramaphosa</a> in December 2017, he faced the choice between resigning or taking his chances with a no-confidence vote in parliament. After days of mouting pressure, he <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-43066443" target="_blank" rel="noopener">finally walked</a>.
The whole episode carries more than an echo of recent events in neighbouring Zimbabwe, where a bloodless military coup removed President Robert Mugabe but left his ruling ZANU-PF party in power, while the coup’s leaders were rewarded with cabinet posts.
The global public seems glued to every move in South Africa’s political drama. But is the attention actually warranted? Is the country really at one of its most momentous crossroads yet? That will only be clear with hindsight.
Perhaps Zuma’s removal will help transform South Africa’s political culture and regenerate the ANC, which is still stuck in its old anti-apartheid/Mandela mode. If it revives the ruling party and ends the era of old men clinging to power and acting with impunity, Zuma’s departure will be one of the great Rubicons in South Africa’s post-apartheid history.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/21/lessons-south-africas-jacob-zuma-robert-mugabes-misfortunes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Lessons for South Africa&#8217;s Jacob Zuma in Robert Mugabe&#8217;s misfortunes</a>
<h2>Falling short</h2>
Just before the 1994 elections, ANC activist <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/ns-interview-albie-sachs-lawyer-and-anti-apartheid-campaigner" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Albie Sachs</a> declared that the ANC had at best two terms in power to bring electricity and running water to the majority of South Africans and to address the inequality in educational, health and infrastructural services. Any longer, he said, and young South Africans would start to challenge its authority.
To give the party its due, what has been achieved is remarkable. It is easy to forget just how momentous the country’s problems were when the ANC took power in 1994. Given it started with one of the world’s largest gaps between the wealthy (at that time almost exclusively “white”) and the poor (almost exclusively of colour), post-apartheid South Africa has been tremendously successful in creating a stable and solid <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/178079/how-big-south-africas-black-middle-class-is-and-why-the-anc-are-concerned/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">black middle class</a>.
The party had to try and refashion the country on all levels – political, economic, social, cultural – and in some ways, it has made great strides. While it has its many critics, the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of the late 1990s helped the nation start to move on from one of the most intense protracted experiences of racial discrimination in recent history.
But some of the deep problems apartheid wrought are anything but solved: millions <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/08/22/more-than-half-of-south-africans-living-in-poverty-stats-sa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">still live in poverty</a>, and levels of violent crime (notably sexual violence) are <a href="https://africacheck.org/factsheets/south-africas-crime-statistics-201617/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strikingly high</a>. All the while, many among the ANC’s elite (not least Zuma himself) have conspicuously accrued tremendous wealth, and their extravagance has become a significant problem for the party’s legitimacy. But instead of cleaning house or changing its ways, the ANC has over and over again chosen to fall back on its victory against apartheid and the memory of its most famous member, Nelson Mandela.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2016/12/01/zuma-thief-must-voetsek/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: &#8216;Zuma The Thief Must Voetsek&#8217;</a>
<h2>Behind the figleaf</h2>
In 2013, a month before Mandela passed away, the South African High Commission in London hosted the exhibition “We Love Mandela”, which included a <a href="https://www.enca.com/life/mandela-portrayed-jesus-last-supper" target="_blank" rel="noopener">painting</a> by South African artist Simon Dean entitled “The Last Supper”. It portrays Mandela as Jesus, surrounded by an astonishing cadre of “disciples” – from Desmond Tutu, Mohandas Gandhi, Martin Luther King, and the Ethiopian Emperor Haile Selassie.
This sort of Mandela-worship has been the party’s figleaf, and a useful device for silencing opposition, criticism, and calls for change. For far too long, it kept the party safe enough from electoral humiliation that Zuma remained secure in his office. But underneath it all, the political crisis that now confronts both the ANC and South Africa writ large has been brewing for years, and Zuma’s demise is long overdue.
To judge by the coverage outside South Africa, with the global public glued to every turn in this political drama, one might think Zuma’s demise had come from nowhere, and that it is guaranteed to change the country for good. But in reality, nothing new has come to light in some time. The latest investigation into his connections with corrupt interests began with <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2013-05-07-the-beginners-guide-to-the-guptas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">exposés</a> by the South African Mail &amp; Guardian newspaper in 2013. Most of the assorted corruption charges against Zuma predate his presidency, as does the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/10/khwezi-woman-accused-jacob-zuma-south-african-president-aids-activist-fezekile-ntsukela-kuzwayo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">controversial rape case against him</a> in 2005-6.
Zuma’s presumptive successor, Cyril Ramaphosa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/cyril-ramaphosa-prepares-to-confront-south-africas-bleak-future-89410" target="_blank" rel="noopener">is not exactly the embodiment of radical change</a>. But Ramaphosa will have the chance to finally seize the impetus for a true political transformation – to find a way of tackling poverty, violence and discrimination while reforming the ANC from top to bottom.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91873/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />Only if that happens will the end of Zuma really turn out to be the moment of transformation much of the world thinks it is guaranteed to be. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/heike-schmidt-444690" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Heike Schmidt</a>, Associate Professor in Modern African History, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-reading-902">University of Reading</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Zuma’s time is up – but what does it mean for South Africa?

A plethora of people are gathered inside the Nasrec Expo Centre in Johannesburg, all draped in regalia of the 106-year-old African National Congress (ANC), South Africa’s ruling party.
The crowd of more than 5,000 moves like a multi-headed beast, chanting South Africa’s struggle songs. The head of this beast can be found in a song that keeps creeping up in many parts of this crowd.
“Unity maqabane, ixesha lisondele,” goes the song, which loosely translates to “unity comrades, the time has come.”
This is moments before the African National Congress, the oldest liberation movement on the continent, makes one of the biggest decisions in more than a century of struggle and campaigning in Africa. It is about to elect who is going to lead it out of its most difficult time in democratic South Africa.
In a few moments, the ANC will choose who will replace President Jacob Zuma, a man who has ruffled feathers from the boardrooms to the streets.
Even before he took office, Zuma faced 783 counts of corruption. Around $20 million of taxpayers’ money was used to upgrade his private home in Nkandla, even though he is paying back some of it. His relationship with the Gupta family has cast a shadow over his presidency. The economy has undoubtedly taken a huge dip under his leadership, with unemployment rising and investments falling.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/21/lessons-south-africas-jacob-zuma-robert-mugabes-misfortunes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Lessons for South Africa&#8217;s Jacob Zuma in Robert Mugabe&#8217;s misfortunes</a>
At Nasrec, as the mood of the people swirls in different currents, dark uncertainty is visible on their faces. Factionalism is at its worse within the ANC, with the party split between two candidates.
The first is business-minded ANC Deputy President, Cyril Ramaphosa, who many believe should be next in line, claiming it is party tradition. The unions, however, say he is too capitalist.
The other is Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, a veteran parliamentarian and former chairperson of the African Union Commission. She is the first female ANC member gunning for the party’s top position. Many however say she is too close to President Zuma, her former husband.
Months of campaigning, factionalism, infighting and party slates have all boiled down to this moment. After a period of uncertainty and songs blaring from every corner, EleXions Agency, the facilitators of the voting process, take to the stage to put the masses here out of their misery.
Ramaphosa emerges as the new ANC president by a whisker. A mere 179 votes separates him from Dlamini-Zuma, after almost 5,000 delegates cast their votes.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2016/12/01/zuma-thief-must-voetsek/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: &#8216;Zuma The Thief Must Voetsek&#8217;</a>
The top six positions of the ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) are also closely contested, with the outcome split between supporters of Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma. Is this the unity outcome that’s often crept up in songs here, or will this cause further division within the self-confessed corruption-riddled party?
“It’s an interesting outcome but it’s an outcome that’s organizational. I think that’s what the ANC needs, where we pull everyone together under one roof and make it a point that people work together as a collective, cohere and move forward,” says recently elected ANC Eastern Cape Chairman, Oscar Mabuyane.
Fikile Mbalula, the newly-elected NEC member, and staunch supporter of Dlamini-Zuma, preaches unity after the battle.
“The conference is over, we have one president and not two. Cyril Ramaphosa is my president and we are going to work nicely together,” says Mbalula, who is also South Africa’s Minister of Police.
Some, however, aren’t taking kindly to the outcome. Bathabile Dlamini, the President of the ANC Women’s League, lambastes the new leadership. The Women’s League had thrown its weight behind Dlamini-Zuma in the hope that she’d become the first woman to lead the ANC in its history.
“This is an attack on women’s struggles. We have been dealt a blow and want to call on all women to stand together,” says Dlamini.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/12/19/anc-new-leader-south-africa-remains-political-precipice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: The ANC has a new leader but South Africa remains on a political precipice</a>
Jesse Duarte is the only woman in the top six – coincidentally contesting for her position against another woman.
Business tycoon and former Gauteng Premier, Tokyo Sexwale, who is also concerned by the lack of women in the top six, gave words of warning on tackling corruption within the ANC.
“When you become president of the country [one day], make sure you have the long arm of the law reach out to criminals. Start with criminals who are trying to hide under Cyril’s umbrella, because that’s how they corrupt the situation. Before you steal from Eskom, SAA and so on, you’ve got to corrupt the ANC. So deal with them decisively first,” says Sexwale, who was once named alongside Ramaphosa and Mathews Phosa in a plot aimed at toppling then president, Thabo Mbeki, in 2001.
A thorny issue for the new ANC leadership, which includes the 80 NEC members, are the growing calls to recall outgoing ANC president, Zuma, from the presidency of South Africa.
In his closing speech at the conference, Ramaphosa, emphasizes the need for a public office that wouldn’t serve vested interests, but build a truly developmental state.
“Our people will judge this conference not only by what we have done here over these past five days, but perhaps more importantly, they will judge it by what we do next. The people of South Africa want action.”
Will Ramaphosa be able to deliver this action? Time will tell.

‘The People Want Action’

Public discussion about higher education funding in South Africa has been beset by numerous fictions and misunderstandings since the Fees Must Fall movement emerged in 2015. These have been compounded by the political opportunism of President Jacob Zuma and his advisors.
In mid-December 2017, with <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/education/2017-12-16-breaking-news-zuma-blindsided-treasury-in-free-higher-education-decision/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">relatively little consultation</a> or planning, Zuma <a href="http://www.presidency.gov.za/press-statements/president%E2%80%99s-response-heher-commission-inquiry-higher-education-and-training" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that in 2018 free higher education would be provided to all new first year students from families that earn less than R350,000 per year.
Having participated in the <a href="http://www.che.ac.za/sites/default/files/publications/CHE_South%20African%20higher%20education%20reviewed%20-%20electronic_0.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">20-year review of South African higher education</a> in 2013, advised parliamentarians on different funding proposals in 2015, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/options-on-the-table-as-south-africa-wrestles-with-funding-higher-education-87688" target="_blank" rel="noopener">engaged</a> with a report by the commission Zuma set up to examine fee structures, it’s become apparent to me that it is critical to debunk a number of prevalent myths around higher education funding.
The current public “debates” contain many myths or misconceptions about what free tertiary education would mean, ranging from the implications of free higher education proposals for poverty and inequality to the feasibility of funding such proposals. Unless these myths are unmasked the free higher education debate will remain misguided and likely lead to very different, negative outcomes.
In many respects, Zuma’s free higher education proposal is the worst kind of populism. It’s been sold as a radically progressive policy that can be achieved with no negative consequences. But it will actually do very little for the neediest South Africans. And it could have negative consequences for the stability and progressiveness of public expenditure.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2016/11/01/frustration-fans-flames/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Frustration Fans The University Flames</a>
<h2>Busting myths</h2>
Myth 1: Spending on higher education is about helping the poor
When the Fees Must Fall movement emerged, it insisted its fundamental demands were based on concern for poor South Africans. The movement argued that this group was effectively excluded from higher education or disadvantaged in their studies because they could not afford the fees and other costs of studying.
The idea that the movement for free higher education is based on a concern for poor youth is clearly absurd when you consider that <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-feesmustfall-protests-some-inconvenient-truths-67516" target="_blank" rel="noopener">only 5%</a> of South Africans aged between 15 and 34 are students in universities, while 34% are unemployed.
A recent, comprehensive evaluation by South African and international academic economists for the World Bank, examined the effect of government spending and taxation on inequality. Using data on who pays taxes and who benefits from different kinds of public spending, it <a href="http://www.econ3x3.org/article/how-much-inequality-reduced-progressive-taxation-and-government-spending" target="_blank" rel="noopener">found</a> that higher education was the least progressive of all social expenditure. It did the least to reduce inequality, since higher education benefits only a very small proportion of the population and those who do benefit tend to come from wealthier households than the vast majority of South Africans.
Myth 2: There are no consequences for increasing taxes or increasing borrowing
Even if higher education is not the most progressive way to use public money, some supporters of free higher education have argued that it could be more progressive than existing studies suggest – provided the money is raised from wealthier South Africans.
Strictly speaking, this is true. The problem is that supporters of Fees Must Fall have written about possible ways of raising revenue as if the money is effectively free. Proposals such as “double the <a href="http://www.sars.gov.za/TaxTypes/SDL/Pages/default.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">skills levy</a> on companies” or “increase income taxes” are empty; they fail to address the negative consequences of tax increases.
A higher skills levy, paid by firms to fund national training initiatives, means lower profits for firms and potentially less investment. Higher income taxes could lead to greater tax avoidance measures, shifts in how employers remunerate employees, or a reduction in people’s working hours. All these could lead to revenue decreasing. Such dynamics need to at least be taken into account when tabling such proposals. But this has not happened.
The result could be a reliance on taxes, <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/economy/2017-11-13-news-analysis-vat-hike-essential-to-plug-hole-in-revenue/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">like VAT</a>, that are harder to avoid because they are paid by the vast majority of South Africans. There’s a perverse consequence to all this: “free higher education” could actually increase inequality.
This myth-making has recently been compounded by Zuma’s proposal and its advocacy by one of his advisors, Morris Masutha.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2016/12/01/valiant-cause-losing-way/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: The Valiant Cause Losing Its Way</a>
Myth 3: Free higher education will reduce youth unemployment and save on future social spending
Masutha claims that free higher education <a href="https://www.enca.com/south-africa/watch-free-higher-education-funds-itself-says-zuma-education-advisor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">will “fund itself”</a>, primarily by reducing future social security spending on social grants and government-built houses. He insists that abolishing fees will lead to higher economic growth.
Given the <a href="http://resep.sun.ac.za/index.php/lmip-conference-presents-new-view-on-challenges-of-tertiary-education-in-sa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tiny proportion</a> of poor youth who can access higher education through their basic education results, the claim about social expenditure is clearly false.
There is a positive relationship between higher education and economic growth. But the current proposal could only “pay for itself” if it produced dramatically more graduates and so increased their economic contribution. There is no reason to believe an effect of that scale is likely and no modelling has been provided to support such claims.
Myth 4: Zuma’s December 2017 proposal is the best way to help poor and needy students
Zuma’s proposal contains two extremely dishonest components: the definition of “poor and working class” students and the limiting of the policy in 2018 to new first year students.
It effectively proposes that in 2018 a first year student from a family earning R340,000 per year will get full government support. But a second year student from a family earning R130,000 will get no support. And a student from the R340,000/year family will get the same support as a student from a R20,000/year family.
This clearly doesn’t prioritise poor students.
A <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/21700/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rough costing</a> by the Department of Higher Education and Training in 2015 suggested that the threshold could be raised to R217,000 per year for all students. This would benefit more needy students and, at an estimated cost of R12.5 billion, been far more feasible than what Zuma has proposed.
Myth 5: Zuma’s proposal is feasible because it “only” costs R12 billion &#8211; R15 billion
Current estimates put the cost of Zuma’s proposal in 2018 at between R12 billion and R15 billion. Some commentators have suggested this cost will remain static in future. That is almost certainly false.
It would only be true if such funding was either not extended to students entering universities in 2019 or was taken away from the 2018 cohort. Neither scenario makes any sense. Instead, funding is likely to be extended to second years in 2019 and third years in 2020. That will likely lead to an annual cost of <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/no-comment-sachs-says-over-masuthas-fee-free-lying-claim-20180104" target="_blank" rel="noopener">R40 billion</a> or more.
An increase of R12 to R15 billion <a href="https://www.fin24.com/Economy/fee-free-university-education-regressive-davis-tax-committee-report-20171113" target="_blank" rel="noopener">may be affordable</a>. But a R40billion increase is an entirely different proposition.
<h2>Critical decisions</h2>
Thousands of new students are being registered at universities right now. The 2018 Budget is set to be tabled next month with public finances under extreme pressure. Given this reality, it’s critical that all the myths surrounding “free” higher education are laid to rest.
Only then can difficult decisions be taken in the best interests of all South Africans. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sean-mfundza-muller-298216" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Seán Mfundza Muller</a>, Senior Lecturer in Economics and Research Associate at the Public and Environmental Economics Research Centre (PEERC), <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-johannesburg-1275" target="_blank" rel="noopener">University of Johannesburg</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.
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Free higher education in South Africa: cutting through the lies and statistics

Rumours that President Jacob Zuma has instructed the South African National Defence Force to draw up plans for implementing a <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1756940/sa-presidency-rejects-reports-of-state-of-emergency-regulations-draft/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">state of emergency</a> may or may not be true. Nonetheless they are evidence of South Africa’s febrile political atmosphere.
But any assumption that <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/anc-conference/anc54-breaking-ramaphosa-elected-anc-president-12453127" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the election</a> of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/profile/cyril-ramaphosa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cyril Ramaphosa</a> as the new leader of the African National Congress (ANC), after winning the race against Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, will place South Africa on an even keel are misplaced. Indeed, the drama may only be beginning.
It’s useful to look back to 2007 when President Thabo Mbeki unwisely ran for a <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/i-asked-mbeki-to-stand-for-a-third-term-to-stop-zuma-kasrils-20171108" target="_blank" rel="noopener">third term as ANC leader</a>. His unpopularity among large segments of the party provided the platform for his <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/Politics/Zuma-sweeps-to-resounding-victory-20071218" target="_blank" rel="noopener">defeat by Zuma</a> at Polokwane. Within a few months the National Executive Committee of the ANC latched onto an <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZAKZHC/2008/71.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">excuse</a> to ask Mbeki to <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/thabo-mbeki-resigns-south-africa%E2%80%99s-second-democratic-president" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stand down as president of the country</a> before the end of his term of office. Being committed to the traditions of party loyalty he complied, resigning as president some eight months before the Constitution required him to do so.
The question this raises is whether South Africa should now expect a repeat performance following the election of a new leader of the ANC. Will this lead to a party instruction to Zuma to stand down as president of the country? And if it does, will he do what Mbeki did and meekly resign?
There’s a big difference between the two scenarios: Mbeki had no reason to fear the consequences of leaving office. Zuma, on the other hand, has numerous reasons to cling to power. This is what makes him, and the immediate future, dangerous for South Africa, and suggests the country faces instability.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/21/lessons-south-africas-jacob-zuma-robert-mugabes-misfortunes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Lessons for South Africa&#8217;s Jacob Zuma in Robert Mugabe&#8217;s misfortunes</a>
<h2>Why Zuma won’t go</h2>
It is not out of the question that Zuma may say to himself, and to South Africa, that he is not going anywhere. He is losing <a href="https://theconversation.com/dramatic-night-in-south-africa-leaves-president-hanging-on-by-a-thread-57180" target="_blank" rel="noopener">court case</a> after <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21732538-judges-keep-finding-against-south-africas-embattled-president-jacob-zuma-loses-two" target="_blank" rel="noopener">court case</a>, and judicial decisions are increasingly narrowing his legal capacity to block official and independent investigations into the extent of <a href="http://ewn.co.za/Topic/State-Capture" target="_blank" rel="noopener">state capture</a> by business interests close to him.
With every passing day, the prospects of his finding himself in the dock, <a href="https://theconversation.com/president-zuma-loses-bid-to-dodge-783-charges-but-will-he-have-the-last-laugh-85703" target="_blank" rel="noopener">facing 783 charges</a>, including of corruption and racketeering, also increase.
Zuma will have every constitutional right to defy an ANC instruction to stand down as state president until his term expires following the next <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/newsmaker-2019-elections-results-will-be-credible-20171015-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">general election in 2019</a>, and the new parliament’s election of a new president. In terms of the <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.za/legislation/bills/2002/b16.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">South African Constitution</a>, his term of office will be brought to an early end only if parliament passes a vote of no confidence in his presidency, or votes that, for one reason or another, he is unfit for office.
But today’s ANC is so divided that it cannot be assumed that a majority of ANC MPs would <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-happening-inside-the-anc-not-parliament-is-key-to-why-zuma-prevails-82399" target="_blank" rel="noopener">back a motion of no confidence</a>, even following the election of Ramaphosa as the party’s new leader.
In other words, there is a very real prospect that South Africa will see itself ruled for at least another 18 months or so by what is termed <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2007-06-27-anc-debates-two-centres-of-power" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“two centres of power”</a>, with the authority and the legitimacy of the party (formally backing Ramaphosa) vying against that of the state (headed by Zuma).
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2016/12/01/zuma-thief-must-voetsek/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: &#8216;Zuma The Thief Must Go&#8217;</a>
<h2>Throwing caution to the wind</h2>
As if that is not a sufficient condition for political instability, we may expect that Zuma will continue to use his executive power to erect defences against his future prosecution. He will reckon to leave office only with guarantees of immunity. Until he gets them, Zuma will defy all blandishments to go. And if he does not get what he wants, he may throw caution to the wind and go for broke.
Hence, perhaps, the possibility that he is prepared to invoke a state of emergency.
The grounds for Zuma imposing a state of emergency would be specious, summoned up to defend his interests and those backing him. They would be likely to infer <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-pressure-mounts-on-south-africas-jacob-zuma-he-blames-an-old-enemy-western-intelligence-agencies-69599" target="_blank" rel="noopener">foreign interference</a> in affairs of state, alongside suggestions that <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/zuma-again-denounces-the-monopoly-of-white-economic-power-11988619" target="_blank" rel="noopener">white monopoly capital</a>, whites as a whole as well as nefarious others were conspiring to prevent much needed <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-12-15-know-your-candidate-dlamini-zuma-beats-the-ret-drum/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">radical economic transformation</a>. Present constitutional arrangements would be declared <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africans-should-be-worried-by-anc-talk-of-a-colour-revolution-87019" target="_blank" rel="noopener">counter-revolutionary</a> and those defending them doing so only to protect their material interests.
After a matter of time, such justifications would probably be declared unconstitutional by the judiciary. It is then that there would be a confrontation between raw power and the Constitution. If such a situation should arise, we cannot be sure which would be the winner.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2017/12/13/anger-corporate-slippery-slope/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Anger At The Corporate Slippery Slope</a>
<h2>South Africa’s army</h2>
It is remarkable how little the searchlight that has focused on state capture has rested on the Defence Force. Much attention has been given to how the executive has effectively co-opted the <a href="https://theconversation.com/leaked-emails-ramaphosas-hypocrisy-on-spying-by-the-south-african-state-83605" target="_blank" rel="noopener">intelligence</a> and <a href="http://www.ngopulse.org/article/2016/09/29/political-interference-weakening-rule-law-sa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prosecutorial service</a>, as well has how the top ranks of the police have been selected for political rather than <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/15/world/africa/south-africa-police-commissioner-under-investigation-is-suspended.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">operational reasons</a>.
It seems to have been assumed that South Africa’s military is simply sitting in the background, observing political events from afar. But is it? Where would its loyalties lie in the event of a major constitutional crisis?
The danger of the present situation is that South Africa might be about to find out.
Were the military to throw its weight behind Zuma the country would be in no-man’s land. Of course, there would be a massive popular reaction, with the further danger that the president himself would summon his popular cohorts to <a href="https://theconversation.com/anc-military-veterans-and-the-threat-to-south-africas-democracy-76118" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“defend the revolution”</a>.
And South Africans should not assume that Zuma would be politically isolated. Those who backed Dlamini-Zuma did so to defend their present positions and capacity to use office for personal gain. If they were to rise up, the army would then be elevated to the status of defender of civil order.
What is certain is that in such a wholly uncertain situation the economy would spiral downwards quickly. Capital would take flight at a faster rate than ever before, <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=10658" target="_blank" rel="noopener">employment</a> would collapse even further, <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=10334" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poverty</a> would become even further entrenched.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/13/southern-slug-fest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: The Southern Slug Fest</a>
<h2>Reasons to be hopeful</h2>
Is all this too extreme a scenario? Hopefully yes. There are numerous good reasons why such a fate will be averted.
Zuma’s control over the ANC is waning, as is his control over various state institutions, notably the National Prosecuting Authority. And the country has a checks and balances in place: there is a vigorous civil society, the judiciary has proved the Constitution’s main defence and trade unions and business remain influential.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89248/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />Even so, it remains the case that what transpires now that the ANC’s national conference is over will determine the fate and future of our democracy. South Africa is approaching rough waters, and a Jacob Zuma facing an inglorious and humiliating end to his presidency will be a Jacob Zuma at his most dangerous. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/roger-southall-296862" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Roger Southall</a>, Professor of Sociology, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-the-witwatersrand-894" target="_blank" rel="noopener">University of the Witwatersrand</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

The ANC has a new leader: but South Africa remains on a political precipice

President Robert Mugabe’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-military-coup-is-afoot-in-zimbabwe-whats-next-for-the-embattled-nation-87528" target="_blank" rel="noopener">endgame</a> in Zimbabwe holds various lessons for his South African counterpart, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africans-should-resist-an-amnesty-deal-for-zuma-68101" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jacob Zuma</a>, as the latter too, considers his prospects towards the end of his presidency. The first, obviously, is that while, from the pinnacle of power, a country’s president may feel the monarch of all he can survey, it is always possible that the blade of the guillotine is just around the corner.
Accordingly, it is always prudent to keep at least two bags packed for a hasty exit: one full of suit, shirts, underwear and socks, another full of foreign currency (preferably dollars or Euros). You just never know how things might pan out, so it is best to be prepared.
Following the almost-coup, Mugabe has been in a stronger position than many African dictators before him because the African Union has in recent years become a lover of democracy and a hater of coups. It therefore now demands that changes of leadership must have at least a veneer of <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/zuma-slams-unconstitutional-take-over-of-zim-20171115" target="_blank" rel="noopener">constitutionality</a>.
This has always been the Zimbabwean military’s weak point during this past week of flirting with political power. Hence its insistence that, despite its take-over of the airwaves, State House and parliament, alongside its house-arrest of the president and his family, its actions are not a coup.
In turn, this has provided Mugabe with a considerable degree of wriggle room, which he has sought to exploit to the full. Indeed, it has remained his key bargaining chip, not least because the African Union does not want to be seen as party to the overthrow of a hero of African liberation.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/20/mugabe-wont-step-grace-wont-step-says-nephew/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Mugabe won&#8217;t step down and Grace won&#8217;t step up, says nephew</a>
<h2>Explicit political actor</h2>
Zuma will feel confident that whereas in Zimbabwe the army has long been deeply involved in the ruling party’s internal affairs and the wider political arena, the South African National Defence Force is not an explicit political actor. He stands in no fear of a military coup (or even a Zimbabwe-style non-coup). Yet he does have to worry about what happens within his political party, the African National Congress (ANC).
Even if his favoured candidate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-woman-president-in-south-africa-sadly-top-contender-offers-more-of-the-same-71944" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma</a>, were to win the party leadership at the ANC’s December congress, Zuma’s continuing as South African President might be seen as a political embarrassment. If strong contender <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1643579/zumas-popularity-slides-again-ramaphosa-favourite-to-lead-anc-survey/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cyril Ramaphosa</a> wins, even more urgent calls will be made from within the ANC for the him to be “recalled” because he will be viewed as an electoral liability.
It is a fair bet that, whoever wins, an excuse will be made for a delegation from the party leadership to visit the president and to ask him to stand down. Just ask former <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2008-09-20-anc-recalls-mbeki" target="_blank" rel="noopener">President Thabo Mbeki</a> who was fired by his own ANC. If Zuma refuses to cooperate, then the ANC might turn to parliament, where enough ANC MPs might feel emboldened to vote with the opposition to dethrone him.
<h2>Fighting for survival</h2>
Like Mugabe, Zuma will be battling for a dignified exit. Even more urgently, he will be fighting for survival. In previous years, Mugabe may have feared the prospect of retribution for his sins, and would have been determined to secure immunity from prosecution.
Now, at 93, he is confident that once out of office he will be left in peace. He may or may not appreciate the irony that, unlike his country’s last white ruler Ian Smith, he will not be able to stay in Zimbabwe after he has been forced to stand down, but he will know that he has to leave.
Neither the army nor Zanu-PF will want him hanging around, fearing his ability to continue pulling strings. So off he must go, to South Africa, Dubai or Singapore (anywhere with a few decent shops for his shopaholic wife Grace). His major immediate concern then, we may presume, is safe passage and immunity for his family. We may further presume, that there is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/17/robert-grace-mugabe-missing-millions-money-zimababwe" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a lot of money</a> stashed away in foreign bank accounts to keep the crocodile from the door.
<h2>Zuma’s tricky position</h2>
Zuma is differently placed. If he loses the Presidency he stands in all sorts of dangers, not least of which is prosecution for past financial crimes and the prospect of his ending his days in prison. In other words, he has much more to bargain for, and he will be doing so from a considerably weaker position. Not least of his problems is that he is a lot younger than Mugabe, so could spend quite a few years in jail.
Zuma’s major strength is that, whoever wins the party leadership, the ANC will probably want to grant him immunity and get him out of the way, as otherwise they face the prospect of their former leader facing a corruption trial during the lead up to elections in 2019.
But for a start, there is no provision for presidential immunity in the constitution, and its grant would face a strong challenge in the courts. Furthermore, if the Guptas or other Zuma allies in the project of “<a href="https://theconversation.com/zuma-and-anc-run-out-of-road-as-bad-news-piles-up-68197" target="_blank" rel="noopener">state capture</a>” were to be prosecuted, Zuma could face being dragged into court as a witness.
In short, Zuma will realise that it will make sense to hot-foot it out of the country, preferably to a comfortably authoritarian country which will turn down requests for extradition.
<h2>The fickle people</h2>
What Mugabe is learning now, and it is something of which Zuma should take good note, is that the people are an ungrateful lot, and are likely to turn against you just when you most need their support. Up &#8217;til a week ago, it was presumed that Mugabe retained the backing of all who mattered in Zanu-PF and that he would again be its candidate for president at the next election. But now, like many a dictator, he is having to learn fast that the people no longer love him.
Past allies, like the war veterans, had already turned against him, repudiating his apparent bid for his wayward wife, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/27/zimbabwe-first-lady-grace-robert-mugabe-successor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Grace</a>, to replace him. Zanu-PF Youth leader, <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/africa/2017-11-16-watch--from-die-for-mugabe-to-fawning-apology-zanu-pf-youth/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kudzai Chipanga</a>, initially declared his willingness to “die for Mugabe” and labelled Major-General Constantino Chiwenga, the leader of the non-coup, a traitor when the army first intervened. After being locked up, he shamefacedly read out an abject apology, begging forgiveness, and pleading the inexperience of youth.
This has been followed by all 10 provincial organisations of Zanu-PF calling for Mugabe to go, and even encouraging ordinary people to join the marches being organised by opposition parties and civil society demanding his dismissal.
Zuma is too wily a politician not to know that once he loses the party presidency, his support base will drain away, and that he will become known as yesterday’s man. Yet like Mugabe, he will take comfort from the regional body, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), for there is nothing his fellow presidents dread more than the prospect of any one of their number facing impeachment.
He will also know that, unlike Mbeki, whose stature in Africa remains high, he has no viable future as a roving ex-president. Zuma will know that if he wants to enjoy his retirement in peace, he has to leave South Africa before he gets tangled up in court proceedings.
His best option will be to grab those two suitcases, make a hasty exit and move in next door to Bob and Grace in Dubai. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/roger-southall-296862" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">Roger Southall</a>, Professor of Sociology, University of the Witwatersrand
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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Lessons for South Africa’s Jacob Zuma in Robert Mugabe’s misfortunes

Jacob Zuma is a natural born political survivor. On Tuesday South Africa’s president <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/08/jacob-zuma-survives-no-confidence-vote-south-african-president" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">overcame</a> an eighth no confidence vote, despite the mountain of evidence of corrupt conduct that has emerged in recent months.
But it may prove to be a Pyrrhic victory – for him and most certainly for his party, the African National Congress (ANC). <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2017-08-08-zuma-supporters-celebrate-his-win-outa-considers-legal-action/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">“Hollow”</a> was the word that one opposition leader, Bantu Holomisa, used afterwards, while the Economic Freedom Fighter’s leader Julius Malema employed a well-known Africa proverb: “When you want to eat an elephant you do it bit by bit”.
Zuma’s political death is proving to be a protracted affair. There was an air of expectation on Tuesday that recent allegations of “state capture” – attested to by a welter of evidence from the so-called <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.za/2017/06/01/the-new-gupta-emails-are-a-lot-heres-what-they-say-in-5-quick_a_22120706/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">#guptaleaks</a> – would be enough to persuade a sufficient number of the members of the ruling ANC to support an opposition-sponsored no confidence vote.
In the event, after a fractious two-hour debate scarred by ugly banter across the floor of the National Assembly, the motion fell short of the 201 votes required to remove Zuma and his cabinet. But yesterday was remarkably different. On the previous seven occasions that the opposition have tabled no confidence votes since Zuma’s power began in 2009, the ANC has remained steadfast in its support for its beleaguered president. Yesterday’s vote was a watershed for the liberation movement that brought an end to apartheid in 1994: around 30 of the 223 ANC MPs who voted yesterday sided with the opposition.
As the ANC’s chief whip, Jackson Mthembu, ruefully observed afterwards, this is true pause for reflection for the ruling party. Never before has such a significant number of the parliamentary caucus rebelled and defied the party whip.
Zuma’s streetwise political skills are well-known. So too is his adeptness at using executive patronage to secure the loyalty of party members as has been made clear in the revelations <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-22513410" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">arising from his links to the Gupta family</a>.
<h2>The secret ballot saga</h2>
But the back story to the unprecedented rebellion within his own party was the method of voting as much as Zuma’s political skullduggery. For the first time, parliament was compelled to allow MPs <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2017-08-07-mbete-allows-secret-ballot/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">to vote in secret</a>. This followed a <a href="http://www.702.co.za/articles/251722/bantu-holomisa-explains-parly-rules-on-secret-ballot" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">legal challenge</a> to the rules by Holomisa’s United Democratic Movement.
In its 22 June <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-06-22-read-in-full-concourt-ruling-on-secret-ballot/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">judgment</a>, the Constitutional Court – an institutional beacon of excellence and integrity in the context of the “capture” of other state bodies – had held that the speaker of the National Assembly had the discretion to order a secret ballot in exceptional circumstances.
Since the ruling, a number of ANC MPs have gone public with testimony of intimidation and even <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/07/12/makhosi-khoza-s-daughter-receives-death-threats" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">death threats</a> in the case of Makhosi Khoza. In turn, the ANC shot itself in the foot when one region of Zuma’s home province, KwaZulu-Natal, demanded that disciplinary proceedings be brought against Khoza after she had called for Zuma to go. The intervention served to underline the need to depart from the generally established principle of open voting.
Accordingly, speaker Baleka Mbete had little legal choice but to opt for a secret ballot, even though it would encourage dissenting voices among the ranks of the ANC caucus. Politically, she had probably done the political mathematics and, as the national chairperson of the ANC, was confident that regardless of the shield that she said was necessary to protect ANC MPs so that they could vote with their conscience, the numbers would still work out in Zuma’s favour.
And so it proved: 177 MPs voted for the motion, and 198 against (with 9 abstentions). Since the opposition has 151 MPs, at least three of whom were absent through illness, it means that that at least 29 and possibly as many as 35 ANC MPs jumped ship.
<h2>Win-win for the opposition</h2>
But it was a win-win situation for the opposition. Afterwards, in the unseasonably balmy winter’s evening outside the parliament in Cape Town, one after another of the leaders of the opposition spoke cheerfully about the political future and of the health of South Africa’s democracy.
They may have lost the battle, but they feel confident that they will win the war. After all, it is clear that Zuma is now their greatest electoral asset, with <a href="http://www.biznews.com/leadership/2017/05/31/ipsos-poll-zuma-unpopular/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">several polls </a>(including the respected <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-05-19-afrobarometer-trio-of-polls-show-shifting-attitudes-but-voters-would-still-opt-for-anc/#.WYo8na17Gi4" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Afrobarometer</a>), showing that across race and class, trust in Zuma has collapsed since he was returned to power for a second term in 2014.
Last year, the ANC suffered its first major electoral setbacks since the advent of democracy in 1994 when it <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-revolt-of-south-africas-metropoles-a-revolution-of-rising-expectations-64617" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">lost control</a> of three major city governments in Pretoria, Johannesburg and Port Elizabeth. Now, its political management skills appear to be in disarray as factionalism and deep, painful divisions dominate internal party politics. This is all unfolding in the run-up to what is likely to be a bloody five-yearly <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/content/venue-anc-54th-national-conference" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">national elective conference</a> in December, at which the ANC will elect a new President of the party to succeed Zuma.
That may or may not mark the start of a new era of renewal for the ANC. But Zuma’s term as President of the country is only due to end in 2019. A lot more damage could be done to the country’s economy and its prospects for growth.
The consequence of that, however, is that the ANC will face the prospect of losing its majority at the national polls for the first time since Nelson Mandela’s historic victory in 1994.
Yesterday may have been a victory for Zuma. But in the longer term it is likely to come to be seen as a major defeat for the ANC. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-calland-182127" target="_blank" rel="author noopener noreferrer">Richard Calland</a>, Associate Professor in Public Law, University of Cape Town
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Conversation</a>
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Tag: Jacob Zuma

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