If South Africans had more electricity, they could see him on TV. Chris Yelland, the electrical engineer turned energy journalist entrepreneur, is the scourge of Eskom, South Africa’s nationalized power utility. His voice is critical, outspoken and more consistent than the electricity supply from Eskom.
“When I started Energize magazine [1997], a lot of doomsayers said to me ‘what the hell do you want to start a new magazine for?’ they also said ‘what more can you say before you run out of hot stories?’. Energy at that time was a boring subject. There was not a lot of interest. People just assumed when you switched on the plug and flicked the switch, electricity would come out the wall. Fortunately for us, and by chance, energy has become a hot topic. It actually affects everybody. Not just industry, not just commerce, but the man or woman in the street. We’ve had to learn that behind the plug lies a multi-billion-rand industry,” says Yelland.
Yelland has had a lot to talk about over the last 10 years. Eskom has the capacity to provide 41,194 megawatts (MW). Its aging fleet of power stations, many built 30 years ago, runs at 33,000MW, and cannot match the current demands of 38,000MW.
For many years South Africans have been smug towards electricity. A common joke told locally was: What did Zimbabweans use before candles? Electricity. Now, that joke, and the smugness, has come home to roost.
The short term solution is ‘load shedding’; in English, this means scheduled power cuts. They are words that mean shops close, mines shut down and computer nerds cringe at losing their unsaved data. According to Yelland, load shedding is a vicious circle; as the power utility pleads with the country to use less energy, it hampers its operations.
“Electricity consumption at this moment is at a seven-year low. Ever since 2008, [when load shedding first was implemented], it’s been going down. This means Eskom’s sales are going down. Their revenue is going down but their costs are going up. In the last six months of 2014, Eskom declared a profit of R9.3 billion (around $800 million), but that was over the winter period, when their prices are nearly double the summer period because demand for electricity is high. In the second six months of 2015, their projected profit is going to see a loss of R9 billion ($780 million). It’s going to wipe out the entire profit for the first six months of the year. Why? “Because they haven’t got enough electricity to sell. They are throttling the economy telling people to use less,” says Yelland.
A four-year delay in coal power plant projects Medupi and Kusile has made matters worse. The projects which were due to be completed in 2013 and 2014 were expected to bring around 10,000MW to alleviate the grid. The delays mean their price tags, estimated at R69.1 billion ($6 billion) and R80.6 billion ($7 billion) in 2007, have now nearly doubled to R154.2 billion ($13.3 billion) and R172.2 billion ($14.9 billion). Alone, they amount to an annual loss of R30 billion ($2.6 billion) in electricity sales.
“All 12 units will be online by 2020 at the earliest, if nothing further goes wrong. They are not a short term solution to South Africa’s needs,” says Yelland.
The power crisis has also meant Eskom spends around R1 billion ($86.7 billion) on diesel every month to run open-cycle gas turbines. Ironically, the country doesn’t have the infrastructure to run on gas, which the turbines are designed for and which would be a cheaper, cleaner alternative to diesel, says Yelland.
There is light in the gloom. A thousand megawatts is generated by renewable energy projects, built by private companies and then sold back to Eskom at set tariffs.
“The success stories are not government success stories, they are private: private capital; private technology; built, owned and operated privately; and then generated into the grid,” says Yelland.
What’s more, a study by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in South Africa, found that the cost of the renewable energy projects was less than the cost of the blackouts, and didn’t cost the tax payer a cent.
“In fact, it’s contributed towards reducing costs, meaning we had to spend less on diesel. Of course that’s only valid on shortages like the wave we have had at the moment. If we weren’t using diesel, if it was a normal country with a surplus of energy, [renewables] would cost us,” says Yelland.
Renewables do have a downside and are not the solution to Eskom’s crisis. The sun and wind are not constant. At any given time the 1,000MW of energy supplied will most likely produce 250MW.
“This is rated output, that is what is expected when the sun is blowing full blast and when the wind is blowing full ball. For every 100MW of renewable energy of capacity, you have to build an equal amount of conventional, mid-merit plants, to back up and provide power when the wind is not blowing or the sun is not shining. If you are trying to deliver 100MW and the sun goes behind a cloud, you can’t just switch off half of your customers,” says Yelland.
In the short term, Eskom’s crisis is further threatened by a R3-billion ($260 million) bailout to enable it to purchase diesel for the next month. Yelland believes Eskom needs to restructure.
“Eskom’s structure is the same structure as when it was set up 80 years ago. The world has changed since then. Other organizations like Sasol are not state-owned enterprises any longer. I believe if Eskom took on strategic equity partners, and listed on the stock exchange, it would raise significant capital resources without the need to raise tariffs. We need to inject new blood into something that is currently something akin to that of a dinosaur. [Eskom] is slow moving, ponderous and unable to adapt to the changing environment. If things carry on like this, it will go extinct just like the dinosaur did,” says Yelland.
You could argue that dinosaurs, when they were around, had more power.

The Scourge  Of The Dinosaur  In The Dark

Coal mines are the rock upon which South Africa’s power parastatal, Eskom, has been built. They mine 120-130 million tons for Eskom to burn every year. In 2015, the rock that supports 83% of South Africa’s power is crumbling.
The power utility is facing a dim future, through a decline in coal investment.
A senior coal analyst at XMP Consulting, Xavier Prevost, says at least six big coal mines could close down or decrease production by 2020.
“A decline in coal production calls for creation of more mines and failure to do so means all coal-fired power stations will have to close down which will affect electricity output,” said Prevost.
Prevost, who has more than 30 years experience in the coal sector, says too much coal in the market has driven down the prices as demand has fallen.
Countries, like the United States, exporting coal into the international market has also brought down prices, he adds.
Some of the big coal companies in South Africa include: BHP Billiton; Xstrata Coal; Glencore; Anglo American Thermal Coal; Sasol Mining and Exxaro Resources. Their costs rise as coal prices fall.
They supply Eskom with low-quality coal known as middlings, a by-product of the coal washing and beneficiation process. This coal contains about 35% of ash, resulting in low energy output.
Last year, South Africa’s Minister of Mineral Resources, Ngoako Ramatlhodi, said there was coal for export and coal of a lesser quality, which stays in the country.
“[The low-quality coal] we would want to keep for our power stations,” said Ramatlhodi.
Ramatlhodi, however, does not seem to acknowledge that cheap coal means lower electricity output.
To make matters worse, new mines are scarce. In the past six years, there have been fears over mining legislation, the decline in prices, increased competition from the United States, Indonesia, Australia and India and also lingering political rhetoric around nationalization.
Prevost says it’s not too late for South Africa to avert the coal crisis.
“Government has a 90 percent chance to make this better or worse through collaborative efforts between the departments of energy, finance and mines,” he says.
Addressing the media at the Eskom offices in Johannesburg in January, the new Chief Executive Officer, Tshediso Matona, painted a bleak picture saying the power utility can’t cope.
“New generating capacity and other levers are needed in order to ease the pressure on the system,” he said.
Matona says Eskom is like a car running on empty.
“We have arrived at a point that does not allow us to ignore the health of our plants. Our reserve margin is so thin, that every incident creates a major systems issue and could also have safety implications for the plant.”
According to Matona, the problem with Eskom is delayed maintenance and he says most of its ageing power stations face breakdowns.
“We know the problem and we know the solution,” he says.
The big question can be put in one word: When?

The Coal Hole

There were fewer miners at the Mining Indaba this year and more mining service companies to make up the numbers among 7,000 delegates. Everyone is trying to cut costs as commodity prices tumble.
“It’s been a lot quieter this year,” admits one of the organizers.
“The investors are there, but the group is getting smaller and smaller,” says one delegate who asked not to be named.
“I think the opportunities are like the gold rush of 1849 in America,” says Robin Saunders, the head of Clearbrook Capital, an investment company looking to sink billions into African mining on behalf of rich families in Europe and the Middle East.
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There were plenty of strident young mining nations from across Africa selling their minerals. This optimism couldn’t disguise the pain of the hosts; decades of battering and disinvestment leaves South Africa, where once 40% of the world’s mining was carried out, struggling to cling onto 5%, according to KPMG.
Investors are fighting shy of South Africa because of three big problems: power, rather the lack of it, strikes and fears over regulation.
The power shortages that have plagued most mines in South Africa has cost Harmony – the country’s third largest producer – 50 kilograms of gold in the last quarter to December 31,  worth around $1.87 million, according to CEO Graham Briggs. It meant production at Harmony fell 10%, in the last quarter of 2014, to 271,963 oz.
“What happens is we have communication from Eskom that we have to cut our consumption by 10% or sometimes as much as 20%. This means we have to stop milling and hoisting, which impacts on our production,” says Briggs.
Like most large South African mines, Harmony is in a cleft stick. It consumes 2,600MW at its South African operations – enough to power a city and more than half the output of a large coal-fired power station. This means, like most mines in South Africa, it can’t risk the capital to build a generator or power plant large enough for its needs.
South African mining minister, Ngoako Ramatlhodi, just over a year into the job, sees himself as riding to the rescue. Even so, he brushed over the glaring power problem; merely talking about private power producers and getting power from the Grand Inga dam, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, in 2023. It could have been 2093 for all the difference it makes to the mines.
Ramatlhodi’s speech was full of reassuring words for foreign investors: the rule of law was to be respected; the government was prepared to get tough on violent wildcat strikes and the country was open for business.
He wasn’t so clear cut on the regulation front. There was plenty of confusion over the amendments to the Minerals and Petroleum and Resources Development Act – the law that governs mining that is going back and forth through Parliament. President Jacob Zuma sent the amendments back saying they were unconstitutional.
One of the bones of contention is the proposal of so called developmental pricing – that is, lower prices for commodities like iron ore and coal to help stimulate the South African economy. A year ago the miners negotiated so called ‘mine gate prices’ similar to import parity pricing, where transport costs are taken into consideration, leaving the producer with a fair profit margin.
The problem is there is a strong voice within the ruling party for developmental pricing to be written into law. If so, the minister could be handed the power to declare minerals strategic; meaning miners would have to accept government prices and have to ask state permission to export. It could bring down the price of coal for Eskom, with it the cost of electricity, which is likely to be popular with voters.
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But among foreign investors it is likely to go down like a lead balloon laden with ten tons of coal. They are likely to see it as the state tinkering with the economy, laced with uncertainty, at a time when investors are looking for long term stability.
“It doesn’t feel like we are getting clarity,” says Wickus Botha, a mining analyst with EY.
“How long is it going to take to get these regulations through Parliament? It is not going to happen overnight. For the next two years it is going to be very difficult.”
In many other countries in Africa, these fears are far away. Many miners are making hay from Abidjan to Maputo as the hunt for investors overcomes shortcomings in infrastructure and financial systems.
One of them is Mark Bristow, the CEO of Randgold Resources, who has spent 20 years building mines everywhere from Mali to the Democratic Republic of Congo. His company’s results, released at the Mining Indaba, shows this penchant for the byways of African mining is paying off. In its Q4 figures, the company recorded record year-on-year production, up 26%, to 1,147,414oz in a company that is debt free and has paid a dividend at a time when the gold price is falling and most mining companies have forgotten what a dividend is. Bristow says his company is making a 20% real return on investment and is looking to invest in South Sudan and Kenya.
“Risk is in the eye of the beholder, as long as you have a good relationship with the stakeholders it is fine,” he says.
Elsewhere, Côte d’Ivoire, famous for agriculture, has a golden dream. The West African nation plans to open a gold mine every year for the next five years as part of its economic diversification, according to mining minister Jean-Claude Brou.
Gold mining in Cote d’Ivoire has grown rapidly in five years. In 2009, the country produced seven tons of gold; in 2014, it mined 18.6 tons. The country plans to increase production to 30 tons in the next five years.
“That is a very conservative target,” says Brou.
One last cautionary tale for African mining; there was a lot of talk about the increased mining royalties in Zambia and Zimbabwe and the threat they pose to investment.
From the gloom came a voice of sweet moderation from Ghana. The West African nation mined 4.4 million oz of gold in 2014 earning 40% of the country’s foreign currency.
In 2006, Ghana imposed a 5% royalty and mining minister Nii Osah Mills says his country plans to keep it at that rate for at least another 10 years.
“We were thinking recently of increasing the royalty, but we decided against it because we felt it would be disruptive to mining. So, no one is fleeing Ghana and that is a vote for us,” says Mills.
A dash of pragmatism that could help Ghana keep its place as the world’s 9th largest gold producer.

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FORBES AFRICA SOCIAL MEDIA

The Scourge Of The Dinosaur In The Dark

The Coal Hole

Four Frantic Days Full Of Fear