With&nbsp;F9&nbsp;racing past $500 million worldwide and likely looking at an over/under $160 million domestic cume, it would appear that the&nbsp;Fast &amp; Furious&nbsp;sequel is the latest big tentpole (alongside&nbsp;Godzilla Vs. Kong&nbsp;and&nbsp;A Quiet Place part II) to perform about as well as it might have in a non-Covid environment. It’s not an exact match, mind you, as maybe&nbsp;Godzilla Vs. Kong&nbsp;might have earned $115 million (just above&nbsp;Godzilla: King of the Monsters) while&nbsp;Quiet Place 2&nbsp;would have neared the $188 million cume of&nbsp;A Quiet Place, but it’s close enough that we can argue that&nbsp;Black Widow&nbsp;might be in a position to be “judged” on non-Covid standards as it opens this weekend.



So, had it opened in May of 2020 sans a global pandemic as expected, what might we have expected to see? Well, the question is whether the Scarlett Johansson-led MCU prequel would have performed like&nbsp;Doctor Strange&nbsp;or&nbsp;Thor: Ragnarok. Consider this a truncated “pessimistic” and “optimistic” box office preview, the kind of thing I used to do with multiple posts three months out from a big movie’s theatrical release. Anyway, the “pessimistic” look would argue that&nbsp;Black Widow&nbsp;was a prequel set between&nbsp;Civil War&nbsp;and&nbsp;Infinity War&nbsp;featuring a single non-superpowered Avenger who had died in&nbsp;Endgame. Black Widow should have gotten a solo flick years ago, like maybe during the summer of 2017 between&nbsp;Civil War&nbsp;and&nbsp;Infinity War.



That past-due status and Natasha having already sacrificed herself mars the “event movie” nature of this MCU actioner. Ditto the Kate Shortland-directed movie being the MCU film with a solo female director after Patty Jenkins’&nbsp;Wonder Woman,&nbsp;Patty Jenkins’&nbsp;Wonder Woman 1984&nbsp;and Cathy Yan’s&nbsp;Birds of Prey&nbsp;(plus Lexi Alexander’s&nbsp;Punisher War Zone&nbsp;from a pre-MCU era). With no forward narrative momentum and its existence as essentially unfinished business before Phase Four kicks into gear, the MCU brand would do more heavy lifting than usual. Under this scenario, I’d argue an opening weekend between $75 million (Ant-Man and the Wasp) and $88 million (Doctor Strange) and a likely over/under $200 million cume (taking the Disney+ variable into account) for&nbsp;Black Widow.



Conversely, maybe Marvel is Marvel come hell or high water. Black Widow is one of the original Avengers, and her&nbsp;Endgame&nbsp;death may make this more of a curtain call as opposed to what otherwise might have been a palette cleanser between the third&nbsp;Captain America&nbsp;and the third&nbsp;Avengers&nbsp;movie. She may not be as globally popular as Spider-Man or Iron Man, but Black Widow isn’t some newbie being introduced with a conventional origin story. Even absent similar hype levels as&nbsp;Captain Marvel&nbsp;or&nbsp;Black Panther,&nbsp;it would still be the first biggie of the summer back in 2020. That slot which hasn’t yielded an under (inflation-adjusted) opener under $100 million since the first&nbsp;Thor&nbsp;($65 million in 2011/$75 million adjusted).



Under this “Marvel is Marvel, Black Widow is still popular and Scarlett Johansson is still a star” scenario, yeah, an opening on par with&nbsp;Thor: Ragnarok&nbsp;($123 million in 2017 for an eventual $335 million domestic/$854 million worldwide cume) or&nbsp;Spider-Man: Homecoming&nbsp;($116 million/$334 million/$881 million) would be likely. As the first biggie of summer (which can be frontloaded for Marvel… see&nbsp;Civil War&nbsp;and&nbsp;Iron Man 3), we might have expected an over/under $300 million domestic finish. And that would have been just fine for this “stand alone” offering, especially presuming conventional 35/65 domestic/overseas split for a $800 million-plus finish. Heck,&nbsp;Ant-Man 2&nbsp;($216 million domestic and $620 million worldwide)and&nbsp;Doctor Strange&nbsp;($238 million/$677 million)-level grosses would be/will be okay too provided folks like the movie.



So, looking at a Covid curve, and the film being available to lease on Disney+ for $30, we’re still likely looking at a domestic debut between $80 million and $110 million this weekend. It’s possible that the film might have played like&nbsp;Thor 3&nbsp;but will now have to “settle” for playing like&nbsp;Ant-Man 2&nbsp;due to “the current normal,” but I’d argue the above-noted triumphs mean that&nbsp;Black Widow&nbsp;doesn’t have to be graded on that heavy a Covid curve. Whatever&nbsp;Black Widow&nbsp;would have earned domestically in May 2020 (sans Covid but amid a crowded marketplace) may be close to what it earns in July of 2021 (with Covid but seemingly unopposed), give or take repeat business, strong mid-July competition and/or Disney+.



Will Black Widow be the first $100 million-plus domestic opener since Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker in December of 2019? Will it be the first $200 million-plus domestic grosser since Bad Boys for Life in January of 2020? Back in early 2020, I presumed that F9 would be the year’s biggest global grosser (obviously sans Chinese mega-movies at the time) with Black Widow neck-and-neck worldwide with likely domestic champion Wonder Woman 1984. Now, in mid-2020, I’m guessing F9 will rule the summer (among Hollywood flicks) while Spider-Man: No Way Home has the best shot at ruling the year and being the next $1 billion grosser. As for where Black Widow fits into the great (and slow) theatrical recovery of 2021, well, watch this space.



By Scott Mendelson, Forbes Staff

bbu-32704_r3_8068a280

‘Black Widow’: Pessimistic And Optimistic Box Office Preview

Justin Lin’s&nbsp;F9&nbsp;finally opened in North America this weekend with a $70 million debut. Yes, that’s lower than the $71 million launch of&nbsp;Fast &amp; Furious&nbsp;and every&nbsp;Fast &amp; Furious&nbsp;movie since then, including&nbsp;Fast Five&nbsp;($86 million in 2011),&nbsp;Fast &amp; Furious 6&nbsp;(a $117 million Fri-Mon launch in 2013),&nbsp;Furious 7&nbsp;($147 million in 2015) and&nbsp;Fate of the Furious&nbsp;($99 million in 2017). Considering that&nbsp;Fate of the Furious&nbsp;took an understandable drop from&nbsp;Furious 7&nbsp;(no nationwide mourning for Paul Walker, no generational coronation for the franchise, no super-cool notion of Jason Statham as the prime baddie, etc.), it would also make sense that&nbsp;F9&nbsp;would open below&nbsp;F8.



There were no real added value elements this time out, all due respect to John Cena’s decency and charisma and the #justice4Han folks. News that there would be 11&nbsp;Fast &amp; Furious&nbsp;movies instead of ten made this Vin Diesel vs. John Cena flick less anticipated. The reviews were mixed-positive as was (comparatively speaking) audience buzz. It earned a B+ from Cinemascore, compared to a B+ for&nbsp;The Fast and the Furious&nbsp;back in 2001 (when it was an unknown quantity) and A or A- grades for every sequel since.&nbsp;F9&nbsp;likely wasn’t looking at another $97 million Fri-Sun/$117 million Fri-Mon debut weekend had it opened in a non-Covid world in Memorial Day weekend 2020.



That’s not to say that&nbsp;F9&nbsp;would have opened below $70 million in normal times, although&nbsp;Spectre&nbsp;opened with $70 million in 2015 and legged out to $200 million domestic/$881 million worldwide. In conventional circumstances,&nbsp;F9&nbsp;might have nabbed a $80 million Fri-Sun/$92 million Fri-Mon Memorial Day weekend debut. Considering the Covid curve, strong legs for&nbsp;A Quiet Place part II&nbsp;and the new normal of nine big-deal streaming platforms (Peacock, HBO Max, Paramount+ and Disney+ all didn’t exist two years ago) all offering your favorite movies for the monthly price of a single movie ticket, I’d argue that a $70 million Fri-Sun domestic launch for&nbsp;F9&nbsp;is close to “business as usual.”



It’s the biggest Fri-Sun debut weekend since&nbsp;Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker&nbsp;($179 million) in December of 2019.&nbsp;F9’s&nbsp;$30 million opening day was the biggest single-day gross since the first week of&nbsp;Episode IX’s domestic run.&nbsp;F9&nbsp;had a 2.3x weekend multiplier earned 10.2% of its opening via Thursday previews.&nbsp;Furious 9&nbsp;($147 million from a $67.4 million Friday and $15.6 million in Thursday previews) had a 2.18x weekend multiplier and earned 10.6% of its weekend via previews.&nbsp;Fate of the Furious&nbsp;($98.8 million/$46.5 million/$10.4 million) had a 2.12x multiplier and 10.5% via previews. It’s, by default, the leggiest Fri-Sun&nbsp;Fast&nbsp;sequel opener since&nbsp;Fast Five&nbsp;($86.2 million/$34.4 million/$3.8 million) in 2011.



The Fast Saga&nbsp;sequels have been pretty consistent.&nbsp;Fast &amp; Furious&nbsp;($155 million from a $71 million debut),&nbsp;Fast &amp; Furious 6&nbsp;($238 million from a $117 million Fri-Mon debut) and&nbsp;Fate of the Furious&nbsp;($226 million/$99 million) were arguably frontloaded.&nbsp;2 Fast 2 Furious&nbsp;($127 million/$50 million),&nbsp;Fast Five&nbsp;($210 million/$86 million) and&nbsp;Furious 7&nbsp;($353 million/$147 million) had over/under 2.5x multipliers.&nbsp;Hobbs &amp; Shaw&nbsp;($175 million/$60 million) benefited from being the last biggie of summer 2019 and legged out to 2.91x, while the glorified spin-off&nbsp;Tokyo Drift&nbsp;($62.5 million/$24 million) had a 2.6x multiplier. Presume a final domestic gross between $152 million and $170 million, with a possible upswing to $175-$180 million.



F9&nbsp;is not among the best-loved sequels but may have a pretty open field.&nbsp;Black Widow&nbsp;opens in two weeks, but after that it’s a question of whether&nbsp;Space Jam: A New Legacy&nbsp;(July 16) and&nbsp;Snake Eyes&nbsp;(July 23) break out. If not,&nbsp;F9’s got a month before&nbsp;Jungle Cruise&nbsp;(July 30) and&nbsp;The Suicide Squad&nbsp;(August 6). Since it opened above $50 million, it gets a 31-day window. That&nbsp;A Quiet Place part II&nbsp;is legging out like a champ despite a 45-day window, and that&nbsp;The Croods: A New Age&nbsp;earned $33 million of its $58 million cume after PVOD availability (on day 21), means it may not be a huge factor.



So, yes, at a glance, Universal’s choice to move&nbsp;F9&nbsp;to late June essentially worked in terms of kicking off what counts as the tentpole-centric portion of summer 2021. It was trying to do this summer what&nbsp;Tenet&nbsp;couldn’t do last summer, with the important caveat being that North American theaters were actually doing their part this time. Theaters nationwide (including New York and California this time) are open and the next wave of biggies (Black Widow, Space Jam 2, Jungle Cruise, Suicide Squad, Free Guy, etc.) are still on tap for cinemas alongside the various horror movies (The Forever Purge, Escape Room: Tournament of Champions, Old, Don’t Breathe 2&nbsp;and&nbsp;Candyman) already doing their part.



F9 had already earned $216 million in China (on par with Hobbs &amp; Shaw’s $201 million cume but down from Fate of the Furious’ $393 million cume) and $297 million heading into the weekend. Thanks to the North American debut and a combined $38 million “overseas debut” in Mexico, Brazil and the U.K., its new global cume is $405 million worldwide, becoming just the third Hollywood release to pass that milestone (after Bad Boys For Life in January 2020and Godzilla Vs. Kong this past March) in 2020 and 2021. It should swiftly zoom past Japan’s Demon Slayer: The Movie ($500 million) as both this year and last year’s biggest-grossing movie. Your move, Black Widow…



By Scott Mendelson, Forbes Staff

May Day Holiday Movies

Box Office: ‘F9’ Tops $400M Global With $70M US Debut

I’m pretty comfortable predicting that this summer’s theatrical movie season will be the weirdest summer movie season since last summer’s movie season. No, theaters won’t be closed worldwide while the few open indie multiplexes and drive-ins try to subsist on nostalgic re-releases and arthouse horror flicks. However, the theatrical offerings are a set of mostly B-level franchise entries amid a few A-level tentpoles. Even with the emphasis on franchises and IP, that makes this summer feel like a distinctly early 1990’s season.



Back in, say, 1995, there was&nbsp;Batman Forever, Pocahontas, Apollo 13&nbsp;and then everything else fighting it out amid a more merciful theatrical environment. Or, more recently,&nbsp;Avengers, Dark Knight Rises&nbsp;and&nbsp;Amazing Spider-Man&nbsp;vs. everything else in summer 2012.



There are quite a would-be summer 2020 biggies (Tenet, Wonder Woman 1984, Mulan, Soul,&nbsp;etc.) that have already been released. Meanwhile, a number of would-be summer 2020 flicks (Top Gun: Maverick, Minions: The Rise of Gru, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, etc.) have been further delayed. There are yet more would-be summer 2021 biggies (The Batman, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Jurassic World: Dominion,&nbsp;etc.) are set for release in late 2021 sometime in 2022. And let’s not forget films like&nbsp;Cinderella&nbsp;and&nbsp;The Tomorrow War&nbsp;which were sold off to streaming platforms.



Point being, the summer release slate is a hodgepodge of “was supposed to be in 2020” and “didn’t have to vacate 2021” titles, most of them smaller in scale and not aiming for blow-out status. The hope is for achieving normalcy, not notching milestones.



So, without further ado, thus continues this summer movie preview. There’s only a handful here that I might expect to outgross&nbsp;Godzilla Vs. Kong&nbsp;($425 million with Japan on the way) and even fewer that might hope to just match what&nbsp;Hi, Mom&nbsp;($825 million) or&nbsp;Detective Chinatown 3&nbsp;($700 million) earned in China alone earlier this year. Without further ado, the three “surefire” blockbusters and the four biggest “might break out” question marks.



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F9: The Fast Saga&nbsp;(Universal)



Universal is positioning the ninth&nbsp;Fast &amp; Furious&nbsp;movie as the “welcome back, blockbusters” event. Opening May 21 in China and much of the world and then on June 25 in North America, the Justin Lin-directed flick pits Vin Diesel’s Dom Toretto against John Cena as his evil big brother. We already know that we’ll get car chases involving magnets, a trip to space and the return of Sung Kang&#8217;s Han Lue after his apparent fiery demise at the hands of Jason Statham’s (now-reformed) Deckard Shaw.&nbsp;F9&nbsp;will allegedly/possibly set up a two-part “Dominic Toretto and the Deathly Hallows”-type finale. Prior to the pandemic,&nbsp;F9&nbsp;was pegged to be 2020’s biggest global grosser. It’s now likely to be 2020’s biggest Hollywood-specific global grosser save for maybe&nbsp;Spider-Man: No Way Home&nbsp;(December 17).



Prior to all of this,&nbsp;F9&nbsp;was potentially going to be the first movie to top $1 billion worldwide without passing $200 million domestic. Now we’ll see if it can out-gross&nbsp;Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales&nbsp;($177 million domestic and $794 million worldwide in 2017) as the biggest-grossing Hollywood film to earn under $200 million domestic. Absence may indeed make the heart grow fonder, as it’s been four years between straight-up Dominic Toretto-specific sequels (starts singing “See You Again”). That’s especially if the movie is closer in quality to&nbsp;Fast Five&nbsp;than&nbsp;Fate of the Furious. I would be shocked if&nbsp;F9&nbsp;wasn’t the biggest movie of the summer, partially thanks to potentially huge business in China and halfway decent business in North America. The only question is “How big?”



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Black Widow&nbsp;(Walt Disney)



While I’d argue that&nbsp;Black Widow&nbsp;would have been a bigger deal had it opened in summer 2017 (between&nbsp;Civil War&nbsp;and&nbsp;Infinity War&nbsp;which is when it takes place) or before Natasha took a long walk off a short cliff in&nbsp;Endgame, it’s still a solo MCU superhero movie centered on one of the flagship Avengers. Scarlett Johansson is passing the metaphorical torch to Florence Pugh in this&nbsp;Bourne/Red Sparrow/Atomic Blonde-ish espionage actioner. Kate Shortland’s MCU prequel will arrive with the MCU machine back in full swing via Disney+ television shows and&nbsp;Black Widow&nbsp;looking even more like yesterday’s MCU business. The film will open in theaters and on Disney+ “Premier Access” on July 9. All of these factors will be why it’ll only make “much of the money” instead of “all the money.”



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Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings&nbsp;(Walt Disney)



This is the second Marvel/Disney flick, but to be fair much of the competition (Universal’s&nbsp;Jurassic World 3,&nbsp;Paramount’s&nbsp;Top Gun 2, etc.) fled to safer waters. The Simu Liu/Awkwafina/Tony Leung/Michelle Yeoh “first Asian MCU superhero” movie could be our first unmitigated Labor Day blockbuster. There’s little reason not to expect the Daniel Destin Cretton-directed flick to break out on the level of (at least, give or take Covid variables)&nbsp;Doctor Strange&nbsp;($677 million in 2016) even if China reacts with a comparative shrug. It’s a demographically-specific event movie along with being Marvel playing in thus-far uncharted waters (the martial arts movie), and it’ll have three weeks before&nbsp;Venom: Let There Be Carnage. A summer unlike any other is hoping to end with the most conventional thing in the world: an MCU blockbuster.



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The burning questions…



Yes, if there were more “biggies” opening this summer, had the likes of&nbsp;Jurassic World: Dominion, Top Gun: Maverick&nbsp;and&nbsp;The Matrix 4&nbsp;not been pushed back, this might have been a closer competition. As it is, it’s really a three-way race between the MCU actioners (huge in North America, healthy in China, with strong fan-specific loyalty and goodwill) and the&nbsp;Fast Saga&nbsp;sequel (healthy in North America, huge in China, with strong fan-specific loyalty and goodwill). But what else is there? Well, aside from a handful of high-profile horror flicks (Spiral, Candyman, A Quiet Place part II, etc.) and some “just a movie” offerings like&nbsp;Free Guy&nbsp;and&nbsp;In the Heights, that’s mostly it. However, there are four other potential “biggies” opening in June, July and August which absolutely could break out, relatively speaking.



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Space Jam: A New Legacy&nbsp;(Warner Bros.)



Will LeBron James’&nbsp;Space Jam&nbsp;sequel play to generational nostalgia or be another unrequested sequel?



Opening July 16, this Malcom D. Lee-directed&nbsp;Space Jam&nbsp;sequelhas mostly been discussed in terms of fabricated controversies about Pepe Le Pew getting “canceled,” and whether making Lola Bunny (now voiced by Zendaya) a more well-rounded character plays into the “social justice warrior” crowd. Pepe’s barely in&nbsp;Looney Toons: Back in Action, and that 2003 romp includes Speedy Gonzalez and Porky Pig mourning their declining popularity due to changing times. The big question is whether the film will be another “this sequel exists because the studio and/or certain filmmakers wanted it” or whether this 25-years-later follow-up will play as an all-ages theatrical-worthy romp while capitalizing on decades of multi-generational nostalgia (and the original film’s place as a comparative touchtone for Black moviegoers). Presumably responsible (under-$100 million?) budgeting aside, this could go either way.



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Hotel Transylvania: Transformania&nbsp;(Sony)



Will the fourth “Drac Pac” movie thrive without Adam Sandler?



Each of the three&nbsp;Hotel Transylvania&nbsp;movies have out-grossed their predecessor worldwide, which each one has been leggier than the last in North America. With the biggest/best animated films (The Mitchells Vs. the Machines, Luca,&nbsp;etc.) mostly going to streaming, Sony Animation’s fourth “Drac Pack” flick is by default summer’s biggest animated film. The initial trilogy has earned $379 million, $469 million and $527 million in 2012, 2015 and 2018 on a combined budget of $230 million. However, Adam Sandler will not be reprising this time out, with Brian Hull (made famous via a YouTube video of him singing “Let It Go” as various animated characters) taking over. While kids won’t care about the actor swap when it opens on July 23, the demos that view&nbsp;Hotel Transylvania&nbsp;as a Sandler-and-friends animated franchise might (even with everyone else reprising).



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Jungle Cruise&nbsp;(Walt Disney)



Can this be Disney’s first true “new to cinemas” live-action franchise in nearly 17 years?



Delayed from last July, this action-comedy is loosely based on the popular theme park ride, one which ironically has undergone an allegedly “less cultural offensive” reworking over the last year. Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt are headlining this Jaume Collet-Serra-directed romp which wants to remind you of Stephen Sommers’&nbsp;The Mummy. Hopes were high last year that it might become Disney’s first new-to-cinema live-action franchise (outside of the MCU) since&nbsp;Pirates of the Caribbean&nbsp;in 2003 and&nbsp;National Treasure&nbsp;in 2004. Johnson is a force with a viable IP, Blunt is an added value draw, and the film looks like quite a bit of fun. If Disney’s live-action departments want to be more than just Marvel,&nbsp;Star Wars&nbsp;and live-action remakes/revamps of their animated hits, well, this one (opening July 30) better break out.



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The Suicide Squad&nbsp;(Warner Bros.)



Can a&nbsp;Suicide Squad&nbsp;sequel still soar without Will Smith and the Joker?



This has all the ingredients of a “too late” sequel to a film that was a big hit ($745 million sans China) without being terribly well-liked. David Ayer’s (heavily compromised) ensemble supervillain flick boasted the first live-action appearance of Harley Quinn, a Will Smith star turn and cameos by Ben Affleck’s Batman and Jared Leto’s Joker. Margot Robbie is back as Harley, while James Gunn is in the director’s chair. That’s ironic since&nbsp;Guardians of the Galaxy&nbsp;is what Warner Bros. was aiming for even if Ayer was initially crafting something closer to&nbsp;The Fast &amp; the Furious. A crowdpleasing trailer, a marquee director and a rejuvenated DC Films may help compensate for the “just curious the first time” variable. Besides, in normal times, I’d have pegged&nbsp;Godzilla Vs. Kong&nbsp;as a whiff, so WB gets my benefit of the doubt.



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Epilogue



That’s a wrap for “part two.” Now is it possible that I’m wrong on these flicks? Sure,&nbsp;F9&nbsp;could underperform while&nbsp;Free Guy&nbsp;soars to infinity and beyond.&nbsp;Suicide Squad 2&nbsp;could be a classic “Tomb Raider Trap” while&nbsp;In the Heights&nbsp;pulls&nbsp;Greatest Showman-level grosses worldwide. Hell,&nbsp;Cruella&nbsp;could play closer to&nbsp;Cinderella&nbsp;($520 million in 2015)than&nbsp;Dumbo&nbsp;($350 million). But the vast majority of 2021 summer movie releases will be content with $100-$150 million worldwide (the horror movies) or thrilled with $300 million worldwide (the likes of&nbsp;Peter Rabbit: The Runaway, Free Guy&nbsp;or&nbsp;Cinderella). Theaters shouldn’t expect that many blow-out hits or record opening weekends. They can still hope that the consistent output offers a steady stream of halfway decent business from May 7 to Labor Day weekend. It’s a summer about survival, not superlative success.



By Scott Mendelson, Forbes Staff

Tag: Fast and Furious

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