Zimbabwe’s Reserve Bank has borrowed $985 million from African banks to purchase fuel and other critical imports with current reserves covering imports for just four weeks, underscoring the severity of dollar shortages, governor John Mangudya said.



The southern African nation last month ditched a discredited 1:1 dollar peg for its surrogate bond notes and electronic dollars, merging them into a lower-value transitional currency called the RTGS dollar.



Mangudya said the central bank borrowed $641 million from the African Export and Import Bank, $152 million from Eastern and Southern African Trade and Development Bank, and $25 million from Mozambique’s central bank, among others.



The loans, which would be repaid from future gold earnings, have a tenure of between three and five years and attract an interest of up to 6 percent above the Libor rate, Mangudya said.



Gold is Zimbabwe’s single biggest mineral export earner, accounting for a third of its $4.2 billion earnings last year after a record output, central bank data shows.



“These loans are well structured facilities contracted last year. They will be paid from future (gold) export receivables,” Mangudya told a parliamentary committee.



The central bank takes 45 percent of dollar sales from gold producers and half from other miners to fund imports like fuel and power and repay foreign loans.



But the miners only have 30 days to keep their dollar balances in local foreign currency accounts, after which they must sell them. The companies have asked the central bank to extend the period they may keep their dollars to 90 days, according to mining executives.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">OVERDRAFT LIMIT</h4>



Unable to get funding from foreign lenders like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank due to arrears of more than $2.4 billion, Zimbabwe has looked to financiers from the continent and local banks to shore up its budget.



The central bank chief said Zimbabwe had just $500 million in reserves, enough to purchase four weeks’ worth of imports.



Mangudya said government borrowing from the central bank reached $2.99 billion in December, about three times its permissible overdraft limit.



 President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s government has promised to curb borrowing in 2019 under reforms to revive the southern African economy, after the budget deficit soared last year following a spike in spending ahead of elections.



Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube said last week that the local RTGS dollar, Zimbabwe’s new de facto currency, will be backed up with fiscal discipline and the government would allow it to fluctuate but would manage excessive volatility.



On the interbank forex market on Monday, one U.S. dollar fetched 2.5 RTGS dollars, the same rate as on Feb. 22 when the central bank sold some dollars to banks. That compares to a rate of 3.5 RTGS dollars per U.S. dollar on the black market. -Reuters



-MacDonald Dzirutwe

UP1EF1H0SAU16

Zimbabwe Central Bank Borrows $985 Million From African Banks

Botswana has offered to lend Zimbabwe $600 million to support its diamond industry and local private firms, a state-owned newspaper reported on Tuesday, amid a severe dollar crunch in the southern African nation. 



There are few signs the flow of foreign currency is improving in Zimbabwe after it ditched a discredited 1:1 dollar peg for its dollar-surrogate bond notes and electronic dollars, merging them into a lower-value transitional currency called the RTGS dollar.



James Manzou, Zimbabwe’s secretary for foreign affairs, said President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Botswana’s President Mokgweetsi Masisi are expected to sign the loan agreements in Harare on Thursday.



READ MORE | <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/current-affairs/2019/02/12/zimbabwe-the-state-of-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Zimbabwe: The State Of Crisis (opens in a new tab)">Zimbabwe: The State Of Crisis</a>



The loan will consist of $500 million dollars for Zimbabwe’s diamond industry and a further $100 million to help private companies, whose operations have been hamstrung by the dollar shortage, the state-owned Herald newspaper said.



“Zimbabwe is also appreciative of the $500 million diamond facility offered to it by Botswana,” Manzou was quoted as saying by the paper.



Manzou, who could not be reached for comment, did not give any details on the diamond loan.



Last month South Africa said it had turned down Zimbabwe’s request for a $1.2 billion loan.



READ MORE | <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/economy/2019/02/25/zimbabwe-drip-feeds-dollars-to-tackle-cash-crunch/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Zimbabwe Drip-Feeds Dollars To Tackle Cash Crunch (opens in a new tab)">Zimbabwe Drip-Feeds Dollars To Tackle Cash Crunch</a>



Zimbabwe’s diamond sector has struggled since the government kicked out private companies from the eastern Marange fields in early 2016 after they declined to merge under the state-owned mining company.



Relations between Zimbabwe and Botswana have improved recently following a strained period when Botswana’s ex-President Ian Khama, who stepped down in 2018, routinely criticized Zimbabwe’s former strongman Robert Mugabe for holding on to power for too long.



A military coup in 2017 forced Mugabe to resign, ending his 37-year rule. -Reuters



-MacDonald Dzirutwe

UN-ASSEMBLY

Botswana Offers Zimbabwe $600 Million Of Loans: Report

Zimbabwe’s central bank drip-fed dollars on Monday to a handful of commercial banks to allocate to large businesses, part of currency reforms authorities hope will ease a cash crunch that has starved the economy of many basic goods. 



Zimbabwe ditched a discredited 1:1 dollar peg for its dollar-surrogate bond notes and electronic dollars last week, merging them into a lower-value transitional currency called the RTGS dollar.



Economists welcomed the move but doubt it will prompt a swift turnaround in the southern African nation, which has grown used to currency turbulence since excessive money-printing under former leader Robert Mugabe triggered hyperinflation.



READ MORE | <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/current-affairs/2019/02/12/zimbabwe-the-state-of-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Zimbabwe: The State Of Crisis (opens in a new tab)">Zimbabwe: The State Of Crisis</a>



Ordinary Zimbabweans are not yet able to use the RTGS dollars in their bank accounts to buy dollars from banks, and the bond notes &#8211; which many businesses are reluctant to accept &#8211; are still in circulation.



“The devaluation was long overdue. The economy has been in limbo and the RTGS can now play a role in boosting competitiveness,” Anthony Mandiwanza, chief executive of Zimbabwean food and dairy firm Dairibord, told Reuters.



“What is critical is that the government lives within its means and narrows and eliminates the fiscal deficit.”



<h4 class="wp-block-heading"> DOLLAR NOT WEAK ENOUGH? </h4>



The last time Zimbabwe had its own currency, a decade ago, Mugabe’s government turned on the printing presses to fund higher salaries for government workers and curry favor with the military &#8211; with disastrous economic results.



Mugabe’s successor Emmerson Mnangagwa has promised a break with the past, but many Zimbabweans are wary after his government ramped up borrowing in the lead-up to a national election last July and inflation rose to a 10-year high in January.



The central bank started selling U.S. dollars to banks at 2.5 RTGS dollars on Friday.



READ MORE | <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/current-affairs/2019/01/24/explainer-the-cash-crunch-behind-zimbabwes-violent-protests/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Explainer: The Cash Crunch Behind Zimbabwe’s Violent Protests (opens in a new tab)">Explainer: The Cash Crunch Behind Zimbabwe’s Violent Protests</a>



Mandiwanza said banks had told Dairibord the same day that it could submit requests for dollars at around 2.5 RTGS each and that it would receive an unspecified amount on Monday or Tuesday.



A dealer at a large bank in Harare whose firm operates on the interbank market said launching the RTGS at 3 to the dollar or higher would have been better to encourage U.S. dollar sellers.



“There are a lot of (dollar) buyers … but no sellers because the rate is not high enough. What we are basically doing is allocating foreign currency to corporates but no trading is taking place,” the dealer said.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">MANAGED FLOAT</h4>



Mnangagwa, who replaced Mugabe after an army coup in November 2017, hopes to steer the economy back to credibility and lure back foreign investors, who have also been deterred by violent security crackdowns on post-election protests last year and demonstrations last month against a steep fuel price hike.



The central bank has said it will let the RTGS dollar trade in a “managed float”.



But it has not explained how it would control the currency’s movements given it does not have significant foreign exchange reserves.



READ MORE |<a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/economy/2019/01/14/150-percent-price-rise-fails-to-fill-zimbabwes-fuel-pumps/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="150 percent price rise fails to fill Zimbabwe’s fuel pumps (opens in a new tab)">150 percent price rise fails to fill Zimbabwe’s fuel pumps</a>



The currency dealer said the central bank was only selling dollars to banks that had lined up customers who had agreed to buy them.



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“We have seen this before in the past and it went nowhere, the interbank system will ultimately become redundant if the Reserve Bank doesn’t allow the currency to freely trade,” the dealer said.



There are also indications that the central bank is not selling many dollars. Only around $5 million changed hands on Friday, a senior central bank official told The Standard newspaper in an article published at the weekend.



A Standard Chartered bank teller in Harare said her branch was not selling dollars to individuals yet, and downtown bank queues were no longer than normal.



On Monday, one U.S. dollar was being sold on the black market for four electronic dollars &#8211; those locked in individuals’ accounts for months due to the chronic cash shortages &#8211; compared to 4.2 on Friday, informal currency traders said.



“The big players are holding onto their money, that is what is holding rates at the moment,” one currency trader at Harare’s Eastgate shopping center said. -Reuters



-Alexander Winning, MacDonald Dzirutwe and Alfonce Mbizwo

RC110F4BE0A0

Zimbabwe Drip-Feeds Dollars To Tackle Cash Crunch

Zimbabwe: The State Of Crisis

Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa has promised action in response to a crackdown by security forces on anti-government protesters following a hike in the price of fuel. 



Lawyers and activists say police and soldiers have killed at least a dozen people, wounded scores and arrested hundreds over the demonstrations. Zimbabwe’s Human Rights Commission (ZHRC) accused security forces of systematic torture.



READ MORE | <a rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="150 percent price rise fails to fill Zimbabwe’s fuel pumps (opens in a new tab)" href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/economy/2019/01/14/150-percent-price-rise-fails-to-fill-zimbabwes-fuel-pumps/" target="_blank">150 percent price rise fails to fill Zimbabwe’s fuel pumps</a>



Critics say the country is reverting to the authoritarian rule that characterized the 37-year regime of former leader Robert Mugabe, who was forced from power after a coup in November 2017.



The crisis will not be easy to fix. There is a severe shortage of dollars, fuel and medicines, while inflation hit 42 percent in December, the highest in a decade. Foreign investors are, by and large, staying away.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">WHAT SPARKED THE LATEST CLASHES?</h4>



Everyday life has been getting harder as the price of basic goods spirals. In the past two months, the country has suffered acute shortages of imported goods, including medicines, food and fuel.



Motorists can wait for hours to fill up at fuel stations, where soldiers are often deployed to break up fights over who is next in line.



On Jan. 12, Mnangagwa announced to reporters that the price of petrol had increased to $3.31 per liter from $1.32 from midnight, but there would be no increase for foreign embassies and tourists paying in cash U.S. dollars.



It was the final straw for some Zimbabweans, and violent protests broke out two days after his announcement.



Some residents say that while calm has returned, soldiers have continued to beat up civilians.



Many people blame Mnangagwa for failing to fulfill his pre-election promises to kick-start economic growth and make a clean break with the strong-arm rule of his predecessor.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">GENESIS OF CASH SHORTAGES</h4>



The country abandoned the Zimbabwe dollar in 2009 after inflation reached 500 billion percent the year before. In its place, the government adopted the U.S. dollar and other currencies including sterling and the South African rand.



People hoped the move would spell the end of spiraling prices and rampant money printing that made much of their earnings and savings virtually worthless.



But over time, supply of the U.S. and South African currencies dried up, so in November 2016 authorities in Harare launched a surrogate currency &#8211; paper ‘bond notes’ designed to ease acute hard currency shortages.



The notes, which now have a total face value of $400 million, are backed by a $500 million loan from the African Export and Import Bank, the central bank has said. They are used like cash.



Officially pegged to the dollar at a rate of 1:1, on the street $1 fetches up to 3 bond notes, reflecting the ongoing shortage of U.S. dollars and people’s desire to trade out of cheapening bond notes and into more reliable currency.



A dwindling supply of bond notes and coins has led to banks limiting daily withdrawals to as little as $30 in bond notes. Companies are struggling to pay for imports and foreign investors cannot repatriate dividends or profits.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">“ZOLLARS”</h4>



When the bond note was introduced, dollar deposits in the electronic banking system started losing their value.



Government borrowing via Treasury Bills meant authorities were creating money without the backing of sufficient currency reserves or gold.



It is these electronic dollars, theoretically worth $10 billion and nicknamed “zollars” by economists, that are raising fears that Zimbabwe might be heading for its second financial collapse in a decade.



Zimbabweans can do little but watch as the money in their bank accounts loses value compared with cash, prompting demands from businesses and civil servants for hard currency which can be deposited and used to make payments.



Zollars remain officially pegged at 1:1 to the U.S. dollar, but on the black market $1 is now worth $4 zollars. That has led some businesses to offer discounts on dollar payments.



Zimbabwe’s foreign reserves now provide less than two weeks’ cover for imports, central bank data show.



The government has said it would only consider launching a new currency if it had at least six months of reserves. But Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube said Zimbabwe planned to introduce a new currency in the next 12 months.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">HOW ARE BUSINESSES AFFECTED?</h4>



Companies are struggling to import raw materials and equipment, forcing them to buy dollars on the black market.



Trump backs Maduro rival amid massive protests



Civil servants are paid in zollars like many other workers across the country. Only a small minority of employees working for foreign embassies, charities, or large international corporations are paid in U.S. dollars.



Last October, the central bank ordered banks to create separate U.S. dollar accounts for clients who are paid from overseas, which analysts said was a tacit admission by authorities that the greenback was not equal to the zollar.



The Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries has warned that some of its members could stop operating by the end of the month due to the dollar crunch. The group said its members had a backlog of $480 million in unpaid payments to foreign suppliers.



Cooking oil and soap maker Olivine Industries said on Saturday it had suspended production and put workers on indefinite leave because it owed foreign suppliers $11 million.



Zimbabwe’s largest brewing company Delta Beverages, part-owned by Anheuser-Busch Inbev, said it had abandoned a plan to only accept hard currency payments rather than zollars for its beer and soft drinks after the government intervened.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">WHAT’S NEXT?</h4>



Mnangagwa, a former spy chief installed after Mugabe’s removal in a coup in November 2017, was elected in July amid hopes that he would help secure an economic turnaround for Zimbabwe, and has said his nation is “open for business”.



But critics say the man nicknamed “The Crocodile” is moving too slowly on economic and political reforms, including repealing Mugabe-era laws that restrict the media.



Mnangagwa has also called for the lifting of U.S. sanctions against officials from the ZANU-PF ruling party, top military figures and some government-owned firms, which were imposed during Mugabe’s rule for what Washington called violations of human rights and democracy.



The IMF has said it would be difficult for the fund to support the country’s reform program unless its $2 billion arrears with the World Bank, African Development Bank and European Investment Bank are paid.



Harare says that should be done in the next 12 months and plans a program allowing the IMF to monitor its economic reforms, although it does not entail funding from the lender.



Analysts said the ongoing security crackdown could quell the protests for now, but more clashes were expected unless Mnangagwa’s administration could find a solution to the cash shortages. -Reuters



&#8211; James Macharia

RC1671A0DA00

Explainer: The Cash Crunch Behind Zimbabwe’s Violent Protests

Despite the ample investment opportunities in Zimbabwe, post-election setbacks challenge its economic recovery

Zimbabwe’s long-delayed economic turnaround may have been further pushed out after the army violently crushed protests following the country’s first elections without Robert Mugabe’s name on the ballot box.
Investors sitting on the fence before the polls will most likely walk away while others may postpone any commitments until the resolution of the legal challenges launched by the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Alliance, or take cue from international lenders, analysts say.
“It’s going to take years and not the months that we anticipated for the economic recovery,’’ says John Robertson, a Harare-based independent economist who has analyzed Zimbabwe’s economy since independence in 1980 when Mugabe first took power.
“It’s going to be very difficult to win any credibility after last week’s activities.’’
Zimbabwe’s first elections without Mugabe had raised hopes the country was on the verge of rebirth after the least violent campaigning in almost two decades. But those hopes were dashed days after the polls as Nelson Chamisa, leader of the MDC alleged “overwhelming’’ evidence of vote-rigging, and the military killed six people amid beatings in the MDC’s urban strongholds.
The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission said incumbent Emmerson Mnangagwa won 50.8% of the vote and more than three quarters of parliamentary seats while Chamisa received 44% support, a number the MDC has dismissed, and challenged at the Constitutional Court. The case, which delayed Mnangagwa’s inauguration, was still pending at the time of going to press.
Mnangagwa, who had vowed a free and credible poll, had hoped to use its outcome to campaign for international support to rescue an economy that has more than halved in the last two decades, leaving more than 90% of workers unemployed.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2018/07/04/who-will-zimbabwe-vote-for/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Who Will Zimbabwe Vote For?</a>
“In the short-term, sentiment will be determined by the outcome of the MDC’s challenge of the election results,’’ says Neville Mandimika, an economist at Rand Merchant Bank in Johannesburg.
“If their application is backed by solid evidence of blatant rigging, then it is likely that regional partners and sources of capital will hold back capital while the stalemate gets resolved.’’
International acceptance is key to the country’s hopes of winning debt forgiveness or restructuring an external debt of $11.3 billion at the end of last year, more than 80% of the country’s GDP. Combined with the domestic debt, the country is in debt distress and the situation is unsustainable, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Support from the IMF and other donors is critical for any government to solve one of the country’s most immediate and intractable challenges; a liquidity shortage that has constrained economic activity and forces Zimbabweans to queue for hours for the few available US dollars. The country adopted the US currency in 2009 after its own dollar collapsed as hyperinflation reached a record 79.6 billion percent in November 2008.
“The proper reintroduction of the Zimbabwean dollar is on the agenda of the current government, but it recognizes that there are certain conditions that must be in place for this to happen,’’ Mandimika says.
“Chief among these is ensuring that there are sufficient FX reserves which would allow for the central bank to manage the volatility of the currency, which is to be expected upon the reintroduction of the Zimbabwe dollar.’’
Cognizant of this, Mnangagwa, a long-time ally of Mugabe has tried to distance himself from his former boss’s disastrous economic and political policies, promising economic reforms and reversing some of Mugabe’s key policies such as on black economic empowerment, foreign direct investment and property rights. After the elections and violence, he took to Twitter to call for calm, calling the violence “regrettable &amp; tragic’’.
He will need to do more than that, and in particular, put together a credible cabinet and also clearly define the role of the military, according to Dianna Games, an independent analyst.
“Investors will more closely be watching the economic policies put and interventions put forward by the new government than who is actually in State House,’’ says Games.
“The choice of the cabinet will be watched closely by investors, particularly given the volatility in the past of Zanu-PF actions in sweeping aside investor agreements in the name of political expedience, particularly with regard to agriculture. A strong military presence in the executive may be a red flag.’’
The country has so much goodwill and potential to tap that a recovery is almost a matter of time, analysts say.
“Overall, I think there is little doubt that, despite an election tainted once again by allegations of rigging and violence, Zimbabwe is poised for some sort of economic recovery,’’ says Games. “There are many investment opportunities, the economy is resilient, there are many skills that could be brought back into the formal sector, there is experienced management in the private sector and Zimbabweans have proved to be innovative even in the hardest of times. These all bode well for a recovery although it may not be as swift as people hope for given the current challenges in the economy.’
&#8211; By Godfrey Mutizwa

TOPSHOT-ZIMBABWE-VOTE

Why Zimbabwe Is Not There Yet

The date has been set for the much-anticipated Zimbabwe general elections: July 30. This will be the first time, in 38 years, the southern African nation will cast its ballot without former President Robert Mugabe on the candidate list.
“We are very excited for these elections because finally we can cast our votes with high hopes they will count,” says Zibusiso Zonke, a Zimbabwean living in South Africa.
It all began when Emmerson Mnangagwa, Mugabe’s former right-hand man, surprised Zimbabwe, and the world, last year, when he orchestrated the resignation of Mugabe, one of Africa’s longest-serving leaders.
Mnangagwa, also known as ‘crocodile’ for his politically cunning ways, took over as President of the ruling party, Zanu PF, thereby becoming the president of the country. He hopes voters will trust his leadership and vote for him to lead Zimbabwe to its former economic glory.
On the other hand, the country’s major opposition party, MDC-T, for the first time, will be led by Nelson Chamisa who took over as head of the party when its founder, Morgan Tsvangirai, died February 14. 
The shocking fact is 133 parties will be contesting for President, MPs and councillor positions. This is also a first.
“I think this is symptomatic of an economy no longer employing people. People think if they get into politics, they might end up in parliament or government meaning they would have a job. I don’t think many of these people have particular conviction; they are just looking for employment. Most of these parties disappear after the elections,” says Mordecai Mahlangu, partner at Gill, Godlonton &amp; Gerrans, an alliance firm of Norton Rose Fulbright.
Some Zimbabweans say they are unsure who to vote for. The ‘crocodile’ they know or 40-year-old Chamisa.
“Look, not that I&#8217;m for Emmerson Mnangagwa, but this is my problem, for Zimbabwe to re-emerge we will need the international community. Besides economic mismanagement, our problems have been due to that we had become a pariah state. Mugabe had severed many of our international relationships with his banter and behaviour. Now, we have Emmerson Mnangagwa whom the international community is engaging quickly. On the other hand, we have Chamisa whom the international community is already questioning…Morgan Tsvangirai was loved by the international community, Chamisa is being ridiculed instead and he is the source of that problem. Who do I then vote for?” asks Zimbabwean lawyer Tichaona Moyo.
<blockquote>&#8220;It&#8217;s a new system which has not been tried in this country&#8230;&#8221;</blockquote>
Moyo admits he used to be a big fan of MDC-T but now believes the party has become elitist.
“In the party, there aren’t many students, workers, and farmers anymore. The very labor movement which spearheaded its formation has been abandoned. So, l have to ask myself whose interest will such an outfit serve? Which constituent outfit does such an outfit care about?”
This is a debate among many. Lungile Mlambo says he is most likely to vote for MDC-T but worries because when Zanu PF was causing the destruction of the country, MDC-T was there and complacent.
“For me, Chamisa and Emmerson Mnangagwa are on the same footing. The former from an opposition party which has failed and the latter from a ruling party which has failed,” he says.
Over the years, there have been rumors Mugabe and Zanu PF stole the last two elections as they were rigged and people were threatened and abused into voting for the ruling party. So is this election going to be any different?
“The first thing is to debate the likelihood of a free and fair election&#8230; The concerns are the integrity of the system itself. It’s a new system which has not been tried in this country and we don’t know how it will turn out,” says Mahlangu.
It is Mahlangu’s opinion that if the election is free and fair, MDC-T might surprise the ruling party by winning.
“I get the sense that if the trend we are observing is anything to go by, the opposition might just surprise the ruling party. We have had 37 years of unhappiness. People attributed that to the ruling party. If the ruling party has been responsible for all these years of difficulty, why would anyone freely vote for them?”
The jury is out until August 4, when the winner will be announced.

Zimbabweans Welcome Military Intervention

Who Will Zimbabwe Vote For?

It’s three days before Christmas. Normally, at this time of the year, Merton Avenue, in Pretoria, South Africa, is an empty street. But today 3,000 people are pushing and shoving to get into the Zimbabwean embassy.
They all want to see Emmerson Mnangagwa, Zimbabwe’s new president and the man who brought Robert Mugabe’s 37-year rule to an end.
Inside the embassy, floor space is hard to find. There are people from all walks of life, from investors to lawyers to activists.
One of them is Ruvarashe Moyo, a Zimbabwean medical doctor living in South Africa.
“I came out today because I wanted to see the man who took out Mugabe. Many people back home don’t have adequate medical care, while there are thousands of specialists from Zimbabwe around the world. We are not at home because of the economic situation, so now I have hope that I may be able to go home soon. I am happy that the president’s speech was about reviving the economy and bringing us back home,” says Moyo.
Like the rest of hopeful Zimbabweans around the world, Moyo wants Zimbabwe to rekindle its former glory as Africa’s most booming economy.
Outside of land reform, Mugabe’s indigenization policies and allegations of rigged elections saw investors turn their backs on Zimbabwe, resulting in the economy tanking. The ruling Zanu-PF government invested heavily in health, education and parastatals. It meant, for most of the 1980s, public expenditure made up 45% of the GDP, according to the World Bank’s Zimbabwe Public Expenditure Review. It crowded out private investment and fueled inflation.
After 37 years, it means revitalizing Zimbabwe’s economy will not be an easy task.
“There is a lot to fix in the country, but the major thing to start with is fixing the economy so that people can have jobs and at least be able to sustain a decent living,” says Terrence Chitapi, a Zimbabwe-based economist.
According to Chitapi, Mnangagwa has said all the right things since his inauguration but needs to back up his words with action.
“From day one, he has spoken about a fresh start and people expected a quick turnaround of the economy and to see a strong push towards the respect of human rights, but so far we haven’t seen gigantic strides to turn these around,” he says.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/24/will-mnangagwa-usher-new-democracy-view-zimbabwe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Will Mnangagwa usher in a new democracy? The view from Zimbabwe</a>
In fact, during the back-to-school period, Zimbabweans witnessed a price hike in school supplies, there is still no hard currency and street vendors, the backbone of Zimbabwe’s economy, have been pushed off the streets for not having lisenses.
“There are actually people from the opposition who have been brutalized by the military. Even when they take street vendors off the streets, sometimes the way they conduct themselves borders on infringement of human rights and endangering lives of not only the vendors but also other passers-by which brings fear and is what Mugabe’s presidency represented,” says Chitapi.
When Mnangagwa was Vice President, he spoke about changes that needed to happen in policy matters, state departments, stabilizing the currency, and corruption. According to Anele Ndlovu, founder of the Zim-SA Forum, an organization that encourages investment in Zimbabwe, Mnangagwa is implementing change. The problem is the pace is slow.
Since he has been in power, Mnangagwa has streamlined government ministries from 26 to 22, revised the indigenization policy and announced the sale of some parastatals.
The biggest concern among Zimbabweans is whether the country will see real democracy.
Mnangagwa’s cabinet is similar to Mugabe’s and he appointed former army chief, Constantino Chiwenga, who led the “coup”, as his deputy.
“It was already a mistake to give the military that much power over politics and now to give the head of the military the position of Vice President shows these deals were made before, just so that they can get into high positions. I worry they might not want to leave and if people attempt to go to the streets, force may be used,” says another entrepreneur who refused to be named.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2018/02/15/morgan-tsvangirai-quiet-man-forced-wrong-job/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Morgan Tsvangirai: The Quiet Man Forced Into The Wrong Job</a>
This move has left many Zimbabweans anxious. But, according to Ndlovu, this is a transitional government that might change if Mnangagwa wins this year’s elections.
“You can’t get into government and then try to change everything all at once. Things would fall apart. You need a proper transition but some ministers need to be retired because they have been there for too long,” he says.
<div id="attachment_35340" style="width: 260px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-35340" class=" wp-image-35340" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Anele-Ndlovu-200x300.jpg" alt="Anele Ndlovu" width="250" height="375" />Anele Ndlovu (Photo supplied)</div>
At least doing business in Zimbabwe appears to be getting easier.
“People started getting permits quicker, it’s easier and faster to register a business and the visa processing has also become easier,” says Ndlovu.
To cut the budget deficit, Mnangwagwa’s government has invited bids for stakes in up to eight loss-making state-owned enterprises, including its national airline, Air Zimbabwe, sitting on a $300-million debt, and power utility, ZESA, which suffered a $224-million loss in 2016.
“If you give a private entity 35% of ZESA, for example, you know the way of doing business will change. They will be able to do collections, less corruption and it will be run properly. This is a very good move,” says Ndlovu.
Out of the 92 companies Zimbabwe fully or partly owns, 38 ran at losses amounting to about $270 million in 2016. Most of the parastatals have been losing money for years due to mismanagement and high operating costs.
“On big projects, like reviving Air Zimbabwe, the investor would want to know what securities they can get… There is a lot of interest from investors. For example, there is a delegation coming into Zimbabwe interested in agriculture and farming of soya and another Turkish delegation that wants to tour the country and see factories that are closed in Bulawayo and how they can get involved in the tourism sector.”
The Harvard Business Review agrees that investors could benefit if Mnangagwa continues to concentrate on economic revival.
“Mnangagwa’s first actions in office underscore how important he views economic recovery. Even before announcing his new cabinet, Mnangagwa installed a key reformist, Patrick Chinamasa, as Acting Finance Minister, tasked with tackling corruption and re-engaging with international institutions to unlock funds to ease liquidity shortages… In this environment, multinationals that are willing to accept some risk and invest in the country could benefit from first-mover advantages – but only if the new administration follows through with much-needed economic reforms,” reads an article in the publication.
Zimbabwe lost out on Africa’s recent growth boom but Ndlovu says those who are willing to put their money in infrastructure development, healthcare, agriculture, mining, technology and energy might have a big pay day as the economy is projected to grow more than 4.5% this year.
Back in Pretoria, as the crowd dispersed, the sky gradually turned a shade of purple and the stars began shimmering. It is dusk at the embassy but maybe a new dawn is on the horizon for Zimbabwe.

A New Dawn For Zimbabwe, But Is It Rosy?

Zimbabwe urgently needs a new system of land administration to harness development in the agricultural sector. The country’s land use and ownership have been significantly reconfigured by the <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03066150.2011.583642" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fast-track land reform programme</a> undertaken during Robert Mugabe’s rule.
Today, <a href="http://www.zimbabweland.net/Books.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">following the land reform</a> of the 2000s, Zimbabwe has an agrarian structure that’s made up of small, medium and large farms, all under different forms of land ownership. A landscape that used to be dominated by 4,500 large-scale commercial farmers is now populated by about 145,000 smallholder households, occupying 4.1 million hectares, and around 23,000 medium-scale farmers on 3.5 million hectares.
Knowing exactly who has land and where is difficult. Illegal multiple allocations combine with unclear boundary demarcations and an incomplete recording system. Many new land owners don’t have formal documentation and lack leases or permits confirming ownership. There is a great deal of uncertainty given the often haphazard, sometimes corrupt, approach to land reallocation that took place under the land reform programme.
Given that the landscape is very different to what went before, a new system of land administration is urgently needed.
<h2>Promise of change</h2>
In his <a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/201711250043.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">inaugural speech</a>, Zimbabwe’s new president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, declared that land reform was both necessary and irreversible, and acknowledged some big, outstanding challenges.
A new land administration system for the post-land reform era is long overdue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/settling-the-land-compensation-issue-is-vital-for-zimbabwes-economy-89384" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Paying compensation to former owners</a> is a vital first step. This has to be combined with a comprehensive land <a href="https://zimbabweland.wordpress.com/2017/03/13/land-audits-a-tricky-technical-and-political-challenge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">audit</a> to weed out those failing to produce, or those illegally holding more than one plot, alongside allocating leases and permits to those in land reform areas, and attracting investment into agriculture as the mainstay of an ailing economy.
Both compensation and audit processes will inevitably throw up <a href="https://zimbabweland.wordpress.com/2017/06/19/land-dispute-resolution-in-zimbabwe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disputes</a>. A fair and transparent system for rapid resolution is required, including the establishment of an independent Land Tribunal. Alternative dispute resolution processes at a local level will hopefully avoid the dangers of the courts getting clogged with numerous cases.
An audit also has to be linked to land registration, and an effective, but low-cost, land information management system. Following registration, legal recognition and formal documentation of land ownership is essential, as <a href="https://zimbabweland.wordpress.com/2017/07/03/beyond-the-freehold-title-obsession-generating-land-tenure-security/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">land tenure security</a> is vital for future investment.
<h2>Many forms of tenure</h2>
Some believe that the only solution is individual freehold titling, as land is otherwise seen as <a href="https://zimbabweland.wordpress.com/2012/02/10/dead-capital-de-sotos-fallacies-in-zimbabwe-3/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“dead capital”</a>. But this is mistaken, as <a href="https://zimbabweland.wordpress.com/2017/07/03/beyond-the-freehold-title-obsession-generating-land-tenure-security/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">other forms of land tenure</a> can offer security, spurring investment, if the institutional, legal and political context is right.
As argued in 1994 by the Rukuni Commission, a major review of tenure policy in Zimbabwe, a <a href="http://www.swradioafrica.com/Documents/Sokwanele%20Why%20Zim%20needs%20to%20maintain%20a%20multi-form%20land%20tenure%20system.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">multi-form tenure</a> arrangement makes most sense. In some settings, communal tenure regimes are best, allowing flexibility and broad access. In others, a simple permit system can allow registration. In others, a leasehold arrangement can offer security and collateral, while regulations can offset land concentration and assure access for certain people.
Occasionally freehold title may be appropriate if a completely free market in land is required. However, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-title-deeds-arent-the-solution-to-south-africas-land-tenure-problem-82098" target="_blank" rel="noopener">titling schemes</a> are notoriously expensive to deliver, open up multiple disputes and are difficult to regulate to ensure more equitable ownership structures, including land ownership by women.
<h2>Financing is essential</h2>
To pay land taxes, mortgages or compensation payments, the land must be productive, and this requires finance. <a href="https://zimbabweland.wordpress.com/2017/07/10/getting-agriculture-moving-finance-and-credit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Finance for agriculture</a> has been missing in recent years.
Great efforts have been made to ensure that the <a href="http://www.cfuzim.org/%7Ecfuzimb/images/99yearleasepam.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">99-year lease</a> for medium-scale commercial farm land (known as A2) is bankable, and cannot be withdrawn arbitrarily. It seems that, at last, the <a href="http://source.co.zw/2017/12/banks-say-agreement-in-place-to-accept-99-year-leases-as-collateral/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zimbabwe Banking Association</a> is in agreement. This will allow the release of private bank finance, as land can be used as collateral.
For those without land leases, other types of collateral can also be used, including assets such as livestock, vehicles or buildings. Alternative sources of farm finance include commercial crop contracting, partnerships and joint ventures or government backed loans.
All these financing models have shown some promise in Zimbabwe in recent years, with <a href="https://zimbabweland.wordpress.com/2017/05/01/tobacco-and-contract-farming-in-zimbabwe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">crop contracting</a> at the core of the smallholder tobacco production success story. Contracting arrangements are also extending to <a href="https://zimbabweland.wordpress.com/2015/02/23/a-hot-commercial-success-growing-chili-in-the-eastern-highlands/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">other crops</a>. Joint ventures, including partnerships with <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-03/16/c_136134217.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chinese investors</a> and <a href="https://frontera.net/news/africa/what-mnangagwa-needs-to-deliver-inauguration-promise-to-resurrect-zimbabwes-economy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">former commercial farmers</a>, have also been emerging in a number of under-capitalised medium-scale farms.
“Command agriculture” &#8211; a public-private input supply scheme &#8211; has been a flagship project led by the new president and the military. It has helped to revitalise maize and wheat production, especially on larger farms with irrigation infrastructure. Questions are however raised about <a href="https://zimbabweland.wordpress.com/2017/09/25/command-agriculture-and-the-politics-of-subsidies/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">longer-term sustainability</a> of such subsidised financing.​
<h2>Sustainability is key</h2>
Getting a new land administration system working is a huge task. <a href="https://zimbabweland.wordpress.com/2017/07/17/a-new-land-administration-system-for-zimbabwe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">All the elements have to work together</a> – from audit to valuation to compensation to dispute resolution to issuing land tenure documentation to financing – and back again.
And this is not just a one-off task to resolve the current mess. Land disputes will continue, audits will need to be repeated, and new leases and permits and sources of finance secured. For this reason any new system must be sustainable, both administratively and financially, and not reliant on external donor finance. Taxes, rents and compensation repayments need to be paid back into a land fund, which in turn supports the system for the long-term.
Testing this all out at a district level before rapidly rolling it out across the country is an urgent task for Zimbabwe’s new <a href="http://www.herald.co.zw/president-appoints-state-land-commission/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Land Commission</a>. Elaborating a new land administration system is long overdue. Such a system will help the country get over the post-land reform impasse, resolving outstanding land issues and getting much-needed investment flowing into the agriculture sector.
Only with this working well – as countries in <a href="https://zimbabweland.wordpress.com/2017/11/27/the-path-to-prosperity-starts-with-land-reform-says-the-economist/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">East Asia</a> recognised when they undertook land reforms decades ago &#8211; will the full benefits of Zimbabwe’s land reform be realised. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ian-scoones-117123" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ian Scoones</a>, Professorial Fellow, Institute of Development Studies, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sussex-1218" target="_blank" rel="noopener">University of Sussex</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Zimbabwe urgently needs a new land administration system

Zimbabwe has a new leader. Robert Mugabe is out. His former ally turned rival, Emmerson Mnangagwa, is in. What now?
After <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2017/nov/21/zimbabwe-celebrates-as-mugabe-resignation-announced-in-pictures" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ecstatic celebrations to mark Mugabe’s resignation</a> thoughts have began to turn to what comes next. Mugabe may have exited the political scene, but it remains dominated by the same political party – <a href="http://www.thezimbabwemail.com/politics/dont-need-opposition-zanupf-business-chinamasa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zanu-PF</a> – that sustained his rule.
Moreover, the country’s president-elect, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-41995876" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Emmerson Mnangagwa</a>, is hardly a breath of fresh air. Having held a series of cabinet positions under Mugabe, and served as First Vice President between December 2014 and <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-41914768" target="_blank" rel="noopener">his sacking in November 2017</a>, he looks more like a force for continuity than change.
As a result, talk in Harare quickly turned to what kind of leader Mnangagwa will be, and the system of government that would best serve ordinary Zimbabweans.
<h2>The fork in the road</h2>
My conversations with people on the streets of the capital, Harare, about the political system the country needs suggests that two distinct camps are emerging: those who want elections to be held as soon as possible, and those who say the polls should be postponed and a <a href="https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/11/16/zimbabwe-moves-to-set-up-interim-govt-as-mugabe-is-apparently-ousted/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">transitional government</a> established.
Both of these options have genuine &#8216;pros&#8217; but also strong &#8216;cons&#8217;. As is so often the case, there is no perfect answer that solves all problems.
It is understandable that many Zimbabweans want a period of calm and orderly government after the twists and turns of recent weeks, and believe that it would be better to form an inclusive government that would feature representatives of all of the main political parties – a kind of power sharing in all but name.
Even though I have consistently argued in favour of the value of democracy and elections in Africa, I have to admit that the “transitioners” have some viable arguments.
The most obvious is that a period of stability and more consensual government might facilitate much needed reform of the economy and also the wider political and legal system. After all, rival parties are unlikely to come to agreement on these issues if they are immediately thrust into an election campaign.
The “transitioners” also have a point when it comes to democracy. Few people in Zimbabwe believe that it’s possible for elections to be free and fair if they are held between July and August next year, as currently scheduled. Given this, and the current divisions within the opposition, a rush to elections is likely to result in a convincing victory for Zanu-PF under problematic circumstances.
A transitional arrangement would allow for much needed electoral reforms to be put in place, creating the potential for a better quality process and a more consensual outcome later on.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/23/bye-bye-bob-come-far-little/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Bye bye Bob &#8211; did you come so far for so little?</a>
<h2>Testing the Crocodile</h2>
But there is also another camp that wants to see Mnangagwa, popularly known as <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/special-features/zimbabwe/who-is-emmerson-the-crocodile-mnangagwa-12013101" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Crocodile</a>, to face an election as soon as possible.
Just like their counterparts in the “transitioner” camp, “electioneers”, have some strong arguments. Whatever one wants to call Mnangagwa’s rise to power – from <a href="https://www.thezimbabwean.co/2017/11/mnangagwa-coup-mphoko-missing-chipanga-now-custody-warrent-arrest-mzembi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a coup</a> to an <a href="http://www.chronicle.co.zw/dont-meddle-in-zanu-pf-affairs-vp-mnangagwa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">internal party squabble</a> – it is clear that it has not been a high quality democratic transition. And while it is clear that the overthrow of Mugabe was hugely popular, we don’t know if the same applies to a Mnangagwa presidency. An election would settle that question.
It would also give the new government a popular mandate to undertake <a href="https://www.dailynews.co.zw/articles/2017/10/14/zim-needs-bold-economic-reforms-us-envoy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">economic reforms</a>, whoever wins power. This could be important to the success of the reform project, because things are likely to <a href="https://www.newsday.co.zw/2016/12/2017-looks-gloomier-zim/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">get worse</a> before they get better, and the country’s economic medicine may prove to be a bitter pill to swallow.
Holding elections would also do one thing that postponing them will not; it will test the commitment of the new government to democratic norms and values from the get-go. One of the main reasons that Zimbabwean elections have been poor quality is that <a href="https://www.theindependent.co.zw/2017/03/24/zanu-pf-revives-rigging-machinery/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zanu-PF and the military</a> have intervened to make sure this was the case. As another friend put it, “If they are really committed to doing the right thing, they can do it right away and the elections will not be too bad”.
<h2>Learning from the past</h2>
“Electioneers” are also motivated by scepticism that an inclusive transitional government would get much done. Both Zimbabwe and Kenya have had power-sharing governments in the recent past, and while they both introduced new constitutions they also saw high levels of corruption and limited <a href="https://www.academia.edu/6446844/Power_Sharing_in_Comparative_Perspective" target="_blank" rel="noopener">security sector reform</a>. They also both led to elections that were denounced by opposition parties as being <a href="https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2016/12/24/2-million-votes-used-to-rig-2013-election-raila_c1478146" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unfree and unfair</a>.
It’s fair to ask: why would it be different this time?
The question is particularly pertinent given the current composition of parliament. Because Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change boycotted a <a href="https://www.dailynews.co.zw/articles/2016/05/04/mdc-upholds-poll-boycott-stance" target="_blank" rel="noopener">series of by-elections</a> on the basis that they would not be free and fair, it has lost many of the seats it won in 2013. As a result, any transitional arrangement that deferred elections and “froze” the current parliament for the next three years would have a big legislative advantage to Zanu-PF.
It is also important to keep in mind that economics cannot be divorced from politics: Zimbabwe’s current economic difficulties stem precisely from an unaccountable political framework that ignored the interests of the people. Given that recent events have <a href="http://solidaritypeacetrust.org/1776/zimbabwe-caught-between-the-croc-and-gucci-city/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">emboldened the military</a> and given them an even stronger voice within government, this is a pressing concern.
Deferring electoral reforms in order to focus on economic recovery may therefore prove to be a self defeating strategy.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/22/zimbabwe-beware-military-looking-interests-not-democracy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE; Zimbabwe beware: the military is looking after its own interests, not democracy</a>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
Ultimately, the form of government that evolves in Zimbabwe will not be a product of popular dialogue. One of the distinctive features of this process is that for the most part it has been conducted behind closed doors by a <a href="https://www.thezimbabwean.co/2017/11/zimbabwean-not-coup/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">small elite</a>.
Don’t be fooled by the pictures of tens of thousands of people marching on Saturday – all sides have invoked popular support, but none have actually <a href="http://www.thezimbabwemail.com/opinion/press-statement-army-gives-update-negotiations-mugabe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">encouraged ordinary people</a> to say what they want, or given them a seat at the table. This is a worrying sign if strengthening democracy is the long-term goal.
Recent <a href="http://bulawayo24.com/index-id-news-sc-national-byo-122715.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">public statements</a> by the main parties at the time of going to press suggests that they are not converging on an interim administration, and so the “electioneers” may get their wish. That could still change because <a href="http://www.thezimbabwemail.com/main/mdc-calls-mnangagwa-repent-join-big-tent/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">talks are ongoing</a> and both sides would gain something from a delay. But if it doesn’t the people will be able to have their say on how they want their country to be run.
Of course, voting will not actually equate to “having a say” unless the country’s new leader follows through on his promise to build a “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/22/emmerson-mnangagwa-to-be-sworn-in-as-zimbabwes-president-on-friday" target="_blank" rel="noopener">new democracy</a>”, and the ruling party can kick the habit of a lifetime. Watch this space. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nic-cheeseman-180800" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">Nic Cheeseman</a>, Professor of Democracy, University of Birmingham
Originally published in<a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> The Conversation</a>
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Will Mnangagwa usher in a new democracy? The view from Zimbabwe

November 2017 will go down in the history of Zimbabwe as the beginning of the end of Robert Mugabe’s <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/14/tanks-seen-heading-towards-zimbabwe-capital-harare/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">37 year tyranny</a>. A tumultuous week finally culminated in <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42071488" target="_blank" rel="noopener">his resignation</a> on November 21st. One cannot understate the widespread jubilation at the demise of Mugabe and his desire to create a dynasty for himself <a href="https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/660122/Zimbabwe-news-Robert-Mugabe-Grace-Zanu-PF-Twitter-latest-situation-coup-Emmerson-Mnangagwa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">through his wife Grace</a>.
But the optimism is misplaced because it doesn’t deal directly with the dearth of democracy in Zimbabwe.
First, contrary to popular sentiment that the coup was meant to usher in a new era of political <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42035981" target="_blank" rel="noopener">liberalisation and democracy</a>, the takeover is actually meant to deal with a succession crisis in Zanu-PF. The military made this clear when it said that it was dealing with <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/zimbabwe-military-statement-seizing-power-171115061457199.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">criminals around Mugabe</a>. And the party’s secretary for legal affairs Patrick Chinamasa indicated that removing Mugabe from the party’s Central Committee was an <a href="http://www.thezimbabwemail.com/politics/dont-need-opposition-zanupf-business-chinamasa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">internal party matter</a>.
Secondly, I would argue that the military resorted to a “smart coup” only after its preferred candidate to succeed Mugabe, Emmerson Mnangagwa, was fired from the party and government.
The way in which the military has gone about executing its plan upends any conventional understanding of what constitutes a coup d&#8217;etat. It’s a “smart coup” in the sense that the military combined the frustrations of a restive population, internal party structures and international sympathy to remove a sitting president. It thereby gained legitimacy for an otherwise partisan and unconstitutional political act – toppling an elected government.
This begs the question: Is the military now intervening for the collective good or for its own interests?
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/17/mnangagwa-military-may-mean-bad-news-zimbabwe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Mnangagwa and the military may mean more bad news for Zimbabwe</a>
<h2>Why the military intervened</h2>
It is baffling to imagine how the military has suddenly become the champion of democracy and regime change in Zimbabwe.
It’s clear that what motivated the military commanders was a fear of losing their jobs and influence after their preferred successor was purged. They launched a preemptive strike against Mugabe to safeguard their own selfish interests as a military class and the future of their careers.
Given the symbiotic relationship between the Zimbabwean military and the ruling Zanu-PF party, it was inevitable that the top commanders would be embroiled in the party’s succession crisis. After all, the military has been the key lever behind the power of both Mugabe and his ruling Zanu-PF since 1980.
In the past they have acted as part of the Zanu-PF machinery, openly <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2008/06/09/bullets-each-you/state-sponsored-violence-zimbabwes-march-29-elections" target="_blank" rel="noopener">campaigning for Mugabe</a> alongside other security agencies.
And they have played a key role in neutralising political opponents. Back in the 1980s the military was responsible for the massacre of thousands of civilians and Zapu supporters in <a href="https://archive.org/stream/BreakingTheSilenceBuildingTruePeace/MatabelelandReport_djvu.txt." target="_blank" rel="noopener">Matabeleland</a>. More than two decades later in 2008 they were responsible for the torture, death and disappearance of 200 opposition activists and the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/2170138/Zimbabwe-Death-toll-rises-in-Robert-Mugabes-reign-of-terror-before-election.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">maiming of hundreds more</a>.
In addition, <a href="http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/DRC%20S%202001%20357.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the UN</a> has implicated Mnangagwa and the generals in the illegal plundering of resources in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. They have also been fingered in the disappearance of diamond revenues from Zimbabwe’s Marange <a>diamond fields</a>.
On top of this the military and Zanu-PF share a special relationship that has its roots in the liberation struggle. The Zimbabwe African National Union (Zanu) was the political wing of the Zimbabwe African National Liberation Army (Zanla) during the liberation war. They therefore have vested interests in the survival of the party.
After independence, the relationship remained intact as the military became the <a href="http://bulawayo24.com/index-id-opinion-sc-columnist-byo-86814.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">guarantors of the revolution</a>. Some of the same surviving commanders of Zanla are still senior high ranking officials. The commanders are also bona fide members of the ruling party and guarantors of Zanu-PF power.
The same securocrats are also members of the Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association. This quasi paramilitary group is an auxiliary association of the ruling party and has fiercely opposed Mugabe’s attempt to create a dynasty.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/21/lessons-south-africas-jacob-zuma-robert-mugabes-misfortunes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Lessons for South Africa&#8217;s Jacob Zuma in Robert Mugabe&#8217;s misfortunes</a>
<h2>Military must step aside</h2>
Zimbabwe goes to the polls next July to choose a new president and parliament. The elections – if conducted in a credible way – will provide the next government with the legitimacy it needs to take the country out of its political and economic crises.
Now that Mugabe has resigned the hope is that the military will allow a genuinely democratic transition to take place. All political players, including opposition parties, would need to be incorporated into a broad-based transitional authority pending credible elections.
But for the elections to be credible, the transitional authority would need urgently to reform the electoral system. This would ensure Zimbabweans can freely and fairly choose their leaders. Without this, peace and prosperity will continue to elude Zimbabwe.
In the long run, the military would do well to get out of politics instead of continuing to view itself as “stockholders” in the country’s political affairs because of its liberation struggle credentials. &#8211; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/enock-c-mudzamiri-192098" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">Enock C. Mudzamiri</a>, DLitt et DPhil Student in Politics, University of South Africa
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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Zimbabwe beware: the military is looking after its own interests, not democracy

The military has taken control of the national broadcaster, troops are in the streets and the president is being held in a secure environment. All military leave is cancelled and a senior general has addressed the nation. Yet the Zimbabwean military continues with the pretence that this is <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2017-11-15-zimbabwe-army-in-control-of-state-institutions-but-insists-not-a-coup/#.Wg2PqE27LL8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">not a coup d’etat</a>.
The obvious response to this is: if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then the chances are it’s a duck. And the sole reason the Zimbabwean military is not acknowledging this as a coup d’etat is to avoid triggering the country’s automatic suspension from the <a href="https://au.int/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">African Union</a> and the Southern African Development Community <a href="http://www.sadc.int/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">(SADC)</a>. Both bodies frown on coups.
A perfect storm formed ahead of these events and made military action predictable. The country had once again entered a steep economic decline (not that its “recovery” had been anything of note). A clear and reckless bid for power was being made by the so-called <a href="https://www.theindependent.co.zw/2016/03/18/what-does-g40-want/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Generation 40 (G40) faction</a> around Grace Mugabe in direct opposition to the Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa, the standard bearer for the so-called <a href="http://www.pindula.co.zw/Lacoste,_Zanu-PF_Faction" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lacoste faction</a>.
This culminated in Mnangagwa’s dismissal by President Mugabe: a clear indication that Grace Mugabe was now calling the shots. It also served as a follow up to the 2015 Grace-engineered dismissal of another Vice President and rival, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30400178" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Joice Mujuru</a>.
The coup means that Mugabe’s long and disastrous presidency is finally over. The only questions that remain are the precise details and mechanics of the deal which secures his departure.
<h2>Why the coup?</h2>
Mnangagwa is a long time Zanu-PF stalwart and is clearly closely integrated with the military high command and the intelligence services. Both institutions are concerned that the succession is being arranged for a faction led by people with no liberation credentials but who have been skilled in manipulating Mugabe himself and in making him do their bidding. The G40 now appear to have overreached, perhaps believing that their proximity to the “old man” made them invincible.
This coup’s explicit purpose is twofold. First, it’s trying to definitively kill off Grace Mugabe’s ambitions to become president and to set in place a ruling dynasty akin to the Kims in North Korea. Second, it’s a bid to clear Mnangagwa’s path to power, first in Zanu-PF and then within the state itself (over the last three decades these have been virtually one and the same thing).
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/16/whats-next-embattled-zimbabwe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: What&#8217;s next for embattled Zimbabwe?</a>
What we do not yet know is what counter force, if any, the G40 can bring to bear against the military. The calculation of the military hierarchy appears to be that Grace and company are paper tigers who will have few cards to play against such force majeure and who lack the popular appeal to bring angry and disillusioned masses out onto the streets.
The coup has formally stripped away the façade that Zimbabwe is a constitutional state. This is clearly a militarised party-state where the military is a pivotal actor in the ruling party’s internal politics. It is not simply a neutral state agency subordinate to the civilian leadership. And the idea that this military intervention is an aberration – a departure from the constitutional norm – is misplaced.
Zimbabwe is a de facto military dictatorship. It serves as a guarantor of Zanu-PF rule rather than as a custodian of the constitution. It has helped Zanu-PF rig elections. And it was central to the state terror which was unleashed against the population to reverse Mugabe and Zanu-PF’s <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/2170138/Zimbabwe-Death-toll-rises-in-Robert-Mugabes-reign-of-terror-before-election.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">electoral defeat in 2008</a>. The military has always been a key political actor. The only difference this time is that its intervention is designed to control events within Zanu-PF rather than to crush opposition to it.
But, a highly politicised military is a major impediment to the re-establishment of a democratic order in Zimbabwe. It has nothing to gain, politically or financially, from democratic rule given the lucrative networks of embezzlement and plunder it’s put in place over decades. Most recently it seized and siphoned off of the country’s diamond wealth for military officers and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/12/zimbabwe-diamonds-mugabe-marange-fields" target="_blank" rel="noopener">party hierarchy</a>.
This intervention is designed to secure the presidency for Mnangagwa. So it is hard to avert our eyes from the elephant – or in this case the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-41995876" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crocodile</a> – in the room. Mnangagwa is the Mugabe henchman who helped enable the misrule and tyranny of the last 37 years. He was one of the principal architects of the <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books?id=zi-tWekXbD8C&amp;pg=PA19&amp;lpg=PA19&amp;dq=%22the+early+rain+which+washes+away+the+chaff+before+the+spring+rains%22&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=dWX2SIUj7r&amp;sig=0aDLpmmQfN93e_RNJuKcBmGGEYI&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwioi-joj6LWAhWE7hoKHRF_C7wQ6AEIOTAD#v=onepage&amp;q=%22the%20early%20rain%20which%20washes%20away%20the%20chaff%20before%20the%20spring%20rains%22&amp;f=false" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gukurahundi</a> – the genocidal attack on the Ndebele – in the early to mid-1980s which left at least 20,000 people dead.
He has also been instrumental in rigging elections and crushing all opposition to Zanu-PF rule, including the <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2017-11-15-after-mugabe-what-next?utm_source=Mail+%26+Guardian&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=Daily+newsletter&amp;utm_term=https%3A%2F%2Fmg.co.za%2Farticle%2F2017-11-15-after-mugabe-what-next" target="_blank" rel="noopener">atrocities of 2008</a>.
Expecting such a person to now make a deathbed conversion to the democracy, constitutional government and good governance he has spent an entire career liquidating is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/15/mugabe-gone-zimbabweans-decide-future-mnangagwa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dangerous nonsense</a>.
<h2>Dilemmas to come</h2>
Mnangagwa will soon have to confront a series of dilemmas. How can he put in place an administration which has the appearance of a national unity government, can secure international approval and the financial assistance required to help rebuild a shattered economy – but avoid ceding any meaningful power or control? Can this circle be squared?
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2017/06/01/the-pain-of-mugabe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: The Pain Of Mugabe</a>
The best hope for Zimbabweans is that the international community uses its leverage wisely and sets stringent conditions for such assistance: free elections closely monitored by an array of international organisations, the establishment of a new electoral commission, free access to the state media and the right of parties to campaign freely.
There should also be a role here for South Africa to restore its badly tarnished image as a champion of democracy in Africa. It has followed a malign path over the last two decades, facilitating Zanu-PF authoritarianism in the name of a threadbare and increasingly degenerate “liberation solidarity”.
Such a combination of pressures will severely restrict Mnangagwa’s room for manoeuvre. Anything short of that will deliver an outcome which is essentially Mugabeism without Mugabe. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-hamill-254226" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">James Hamill</a>, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, University of Leicester
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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&nbsp;

Mnangagwa and the military may mean more bad news for Zimbabwe

Nobody is safe from the rages of Zimbabwe’s First Lady, “<a href="https://www.thestandard.co.zw/2014/09/21/grace-mugabes-doctorate-uz-remains-mum/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dr</a>. Amai” Grace Mugabe. There was the young <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/special-features/zimbabwe/grace-mugabe-split-my-head-open-claims-joburg-woman-10788605" target="_blank" rel="noopener">South African model</a> Grace lashed with extension cords. Ninety-three-year-old President Robert Mugabe’s longtime and usually trusted ally <a href="https://www.africa-confidential.com/article/id/12164/Mugabe_drops_the_crocodile" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Emmerson Mnangagwa</a>, was next in the firing line: he was sacked because his supporters allegedly <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/an-ordinary-man-after-all-mugabe-fires-right-hand-man-mnangagwa-20171106" target="_blank" rel="noopener">booed</a> her at a rally.
The consequences of her vengeance may have <a href="http://nehandaradio.com/2017/11/14/live-updates-situation-zimbabwe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">led to a coup</a> headed by Zimbabwe’s army chief General Constantino Chiwenga, who is commonly perceived to be Mnangagwa’s protégé. But <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/who-is-emmerson-mnangagwa/4115612.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ex-freedom fighter Mnangagwa</a> has his own presidential aspirations.
Mnangagwa has been exiled from the party in which he has served since he was a teenager. But he is not just skulking in the political wilderness. On arrival in South Africa he issued a statement calling those who wanted him out <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/full-statement-im-not-going-anywhere-zanu-pf-is-not-your-personal-property-mnangagwa-tells-mugabe-20171108" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“minnows”</a>. He promised to control his party “very soon” and urged his supporters to register to vote in the national elections next July.
As if to back Mnangagwa, on November 13 General Chiwenga announced that he and his officers could not allow the “counter-revolutionary infiltrators”, implied to be behind Grace Mugabe, to <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/13/zimbabwe-army-chief-warns-mugabes-party-military-may-intervene/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">continue their purges</a>.
<h2>Factions and purges</h2>
Chiwenga <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-41992351" target="_blank" rel="noopener">declared</a> that the armed forces must ensure all party members attend the extraordinary Zanu-PF congress next month with “equal opportunity to exercise their democratic rights”. He flashed back through Zanu-PF’s history of factionalism, reminding his listeners that although the military “will not hesitate to step in” it has never “usurped power”. Chiwenga promised to defuse all the differences “amicably and in the ruling party’s closet”.
Although this airbrushed more than it <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02589001.2014.956499" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revealed</a> about the party’s rough patches when leadership vacuums appeared, the statement appeared more as a cautionary note than a clarion call to arms. It’s not often a coup is announced before it starts; but once in motion direction – and history – can change. Grace Mugabe may have unleashed a perfect storm and her own undoing.
All the “shenanigans” that have inspired the generals to consider a coup have set the stage for an extraordinary Zanu-PF congress this December instead of in the expected 2019: that is, before rather than after the July 2018 national elections.
This suggests some people were in a hurry to settle the succession issues for the president, who is now showing every one of his 93 years. Maybe Robert Mugabe won’t rule until he is <a href="http://www.hsrcpress.ac.za/product.php?productid=2114&amp;freedownload=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">100-years-old</a>. If not, and <a href="https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/mugabes-zimbabwe-has-an-angry-population-and-a-potentially-violentfuture/article36934238/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">members of his family</a> or party wanted to keep their dynasties alive, they had to work quickly lest some similarly inclined contenders are in their way.
These contenders include Mnangagwa and a slew of his <a href="http://www.pindula.co.zw/Lacoste,_Zanu-PF_Faction" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“Lacoste” faction</a> consisting of war veterans and the odd financial liberal. The best-known of these is Patrick Chinamasa. This former finance minister tried to convince the world’s bankers he could pull Zimbabwe <a href="https://theconversation.com/zimbabwes-financial-system-is-living-on-borrowed-time-and-borrowed-money-86159" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out of the fire</a>. He was demoted to control cyberspace and then fired. Perhaps he may make a comeback in the wake of the semi-coup.
The pro-Grace faction includes the members of <a href="https://www.theindependent.co.zw/2016/03/18/what-does-g40-want/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Generation 40, or “G-40”</a>. Many are well over 40. But in Robert Mugabe’s shadow they appear young, as does the 52-year-old First Lady. Without a base in the liberation-war cohort, they resorted to working with the Mugabe couple: sometimes their ideology appears radical, espousing indigenous economics and more land to the tillers.
If the history of their best-known member – the current Minister of Higher Education <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/Jonathan_Moyo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jonathan Moyo</a> – is indicative, however, they are pragmatic; or less politely put, opportunist.
But with Grace Mugabe sans Robert, they would have to muster inordinate amounts of patience and manipulation to steer the sinking ship to the shores of stable statehood and incorporate yet <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Search-Elusive-Zimbabwean-Dream-Autobiography/dp/0994707924" target="_blank" rel="noopener">younger generations</a> who cut their political teeth as Robert Mugabe’s rule faltered.
<h2>Perfidious ‘saviours’</h2>
Yet the possible plan for the upcoming congress – to create a third vice-president – appears not to move far beyond the cold hands of the old. <a href="https://www.news24.com/Tags/People/phelekezela_mphoko" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Phelekezela Mphoko</a> would be pushed to third vice-president status. Grace would be the second vice-president.
The current defence minister, <a href="https://www.theindependent.co.zw/2017/11/10/mnangagwas-great-escape-details/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sydney Sekeramayi</a> would be first vice-president and so, next in line for the presidential palace. He is a quiet but no less tarnished member of the Zanu-PF old guard; especially when one remembers the massacre of thousands of Ndebele people during the <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books?id=zi-tWekXbD8C&amp;pg=PA19&amp;lpg=PA19&amp;dq=%22the+early+rain+which+washes+away+the+chaff+before+the+spring+rains%22&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=dWX2SIUj7r&amp;sig=0aDLpmmQfN93e_RNJuKcBmGGEYI&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwioi-joj6LWAhWE7hoKHRF_C7wQ6AEIOTAD#v=onepage&amp;q=%22the%20early%20rain%20which%20washes%20away%20the%20chaff%20before%20the%20spring%20rains%22&amp;f=false" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gukurahundi</a>.
When performing the calculus necessary to rectify Zimbabwe’s graceless imbalances, remember that Mnangagwa was perhaps the key architect of the nearly genocidal Gukurahundi, now chronicled in archival detail in historian Stuart Doran’s <a href="https://www.sithatha.com/books" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kingdom, Power, Glory: Mugabe, Zanu, and the Quest for Supremacy</a>. Among the scores implicated therein are the British, condemned by Hazel Cameron, another meticulous archivist, as exercising <a href="https://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/news/archive/2017/zimbabwe-cameron/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“wilful blindness”</a> during what Robert Mugabe has dismissed as a “moment of madness”.
Perhaps it’s no surprise, then, that many are suspicious of Mnangagwa’s <a href="http://africanarguments.org/2017/11/08/zimbabwe-the-uks-misguided-role-in-the-rise-and-fall-of-mnangagwa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">relationship</a> with the UK. Many suspect he has been swimming with perfidious Albion for a very, very long time.
Those waters, in the shadow of Mugabe’s heritage, will take a few more generations of hard political work to clear. It hardly seems propitious that a coup, and the same generation that has ruled since 1980, starts it off.
&#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-b-moore-285501" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">David B. Moore</a>, Professor of Development Studies, University of Johannesburg and originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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Tag: Emmerson Mnangagwa

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