The Uncertainty around the U.S. elections after months of debate was fi nally put to rest as results were announced on November 6. Donald Trump created history by winning when all the odds were supposedly stacked up against him. Listening to Professor Allan Lichtman, the ‘Nostradamus of election predictions’, and based on his near-perfect track-record of predicting the outcome of the U.S. elections (nine correct out of the last 10), there appeared to have been a strong view that Trump would never see the White House again. These predictions and prophesies have all come wrong and despite being a convicted felon, Trump will be the 47th and the oldest President of the U.S. to take offi ce. He created history on many levels, but the most important milestone was that he is the only Republican presidential candidate to have defeated two women (both Democrats) in his final campaign to become President: Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Kamala Harris in 2024.



While there is a lot of debate around the reasons for Harris’ loss – including blaming President Joe Biden for delaying his decision not to contest for a second-term in office – the real question is whether the U.S. is ready for a woman president; especially if she is a person of color. Despite all the chest-thumping on women’s rights and equity, most of the U.S.’ population is not prepared to vote for a female president.


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This was amply illustrated by the fact that not only were older males supportive of Trump but even some Latino men, who earlier voted for Biden in 2020, turned their back on the Democratic Party in 2024. With this result behind us, we are now faced with many questions about the various promises made by Trump as part of his election campaign. There are many questions relating to the U.S. foreign policy that will most likely impact the world. The first is the position that the U.S. may take regarding the Ukraine war and by extension, whether the country will continue to support the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Trump had made declarations in the past, that the U.S. could not continue subsidizing NATO and that all member countries are required to make prorated financial contributions towards the alliance.



Trump’s stand against Iran and in favor of Israel will cause further short-term escalation of hostilities in the Middle East. His statement about &#8220;finishing the job in Gaza” will need to be clarified as it can have far-reaching consequences for stability in the Middle East. Finally, his position on China will have a lot of macro-economic consequences, particularly if import duties are raised. His views on many issues are radical and can result in greater polarization in global geopolitics.



One thing for sure is that the next four years are going to be a roller coaster ride as even his close aides don’t always know what Trump is thinking and/ or planning.



Closer to home, the South African political arena entered unchartered territory with the formation of the first coalition government since 1994. As expected, the African National Congress (ANC) lost its national national majority and is now leading the Government of National Unity (GNU) formed as a coalition between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance (DA). There are a number of positives that will emerge, including accountability that will become a key outcome in the years ahead. The ANC will need to get its house in order if it plans to stay in government. The only glaring weakness of the GNU is the fragile nature of the relationship between the ANC and DA that have very different ideologies, and the undercurrents are already being felt across diff erent factions and more specifically, in the municipalities where there appears to be a complete lack of trust. It is widely expected that the coalition will possibly survive until the municipal elections in 2026, the outcome of which could test the fundamentals of the coalition. 



From an economic standpoint, business has generally been positive and there has been no major turbulence post-election which has also been reflected in the strengthening of the South African rand. There is much to be discussed about South African politics in the years ahead as the country’s democracy matures from a two-party system into a multi-party democracy and devolution of political power to different parties in the provinces.



The fight in the medium-term will be for the province of Gauteng as the party that rules this economic powerhouse will rule the country.



In the meantime, we have been experiencing evolving weather conditions in diff erent parts of the continent. The temperature in Johannesburg fell to six degrees in October and the month of November had some unusual inversions of temperature. Over the last few months, I have been speaking with business and political leaders regarding the likely outcomes of uncontrolled climate change and the impact of global warming on our lives in Africa. The first and immediate point of departure and unintended contention is that the last two conferences (COP28 in the United Arab Emirates and COP29 in Azerbaijan) have been held in countries whose future is dependent on fossil fuels. Consequently, it’s unlikely that there will be any consensus on slowing down the production of fossil fuels.



While some oil producers have been less forthcoming on the production of fossil fuels, the U.S. under Trump may be a lot more vocal about the futility of the debates around climate change. As the largest economy in the world, if the U.S. abandons or neglects the emphasis on energy transformation, what would other nations do? Countries like China and India are unlikely to follow the goals being set under the Paris Agreement and this initiative will lose momentum and expedite global warming. Furthermore, it’s unreasonable and unconscionable for developed countries to continue buying carbon credits at the cost of the development of emerging economies particularly in Africa where there are adequate coal and fossil fuel reserves available. As developed countries continue to pursue their self-interests, the appalling impact of global warming can be seen all over the world including but not limited to the recent forest fires in California and the floods in Spain.



It’s no secret that 2024 will be the first year when the global warming thresholds of 1.5 degree centigrade above pre-industrialization temperatures will be crossed (as set in the Paris Agreement). Trump had already withdrawn the U.S. from the Paris Agreement in 2020, which was re- instated by Biden in 2021. It’s likely that Trump will renege on this agreement again and this time do it by withdrawing from the United Nations Framework Convention on Cli- mate Change (UNFCC) that would automatically create an exit from the Paris Agreement. The stock prices of oil and fossil fuel companies went up as soon as Trump won the elections, signaling Trump’s alleged intent to start giving additional licenses and permits for drilling fossil fuels.



The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) concluded in Baku, Azerbaijan, on November 22. A core agenda for COP29 was “to establish more robust financial commit- ments to support climate resilience, especially for vulnera- ble and developing nations”. This amongst many other pri- orities includes defining a new global climate finance goal to replace the previous $100 billion yearly target, which was only partially met. This largely remains a pie in the sky as there is no way that under the new political dispensation of developed countries that this quantum of money will flow to developing nations for energy transformation.



Like others, African countries are on the frontline of climate change, with rising temperatures, droughts, and extreme weather events threatening food security and livelihoods. We witnessed unprecedented rainfall in Kenya this year indicating what is yet to come in the coming years. The agricultural sector, which employs over 60% of Africa’s workforce, is particularly vulnerable to climate change. In regions like the Horn of Africa, prolonged droughts have led to crop failures, and food shortages.



To combat these challenges, African countries need to invest in climate-smart agriculture — farming practices that increase productivity while building resilience to cli- mate shocks. However, these practices need large invest- ments that are currently not available to farmers. Initiatives such as AGRA (Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa) are attempting to assist smallholder farmers by promoting sustainable farming methods, access to finance, and im- proved agricultural technologies. AGRA has impacted the lives of over 26 million smallholder farmers in East Africa and West Africa.



In addition to agriculture, Africa’s urban cities face the challenge of managing the impact of climate change, to in- clude but not limited to flooding, rising sea levels, and wa- ter scarcity. Water shortages are already being seen as a challenge for the future as water tables continue to deplete. These are practical problems in Africa and the leaders on the continent need to adopt strategies to find solutions to these problems with an African lens so that the continent’s development is at the core of all decision-making.



There was another profound lesson that was given to business leaders at the recently-concluded CNBC Africa All Africa Business Leaders Awards (AABLA 2024). This time, it was on spirituality, by none other than Imtiaz Sooliman, Founder of the Gift of the Givers, who was invited by me to deliver the keynote address at a glittering ceremony at the Sandton Convention Centre in Johannesburg. In a very powerful and inspiring message, Sooliman gave an account of his life and the accomplishments by South Af- rica in assisting people in distress not only in South Africa but across the African continent and in other parts of the world. He emphasized the need for people to step away from simple profitability and focus on doing what is right and while respecting faith, focus on being spiritual. He re- ceived a standing ovation from the 550 guests for his im- pactful and timely message and was the highlight of this year’s awards.



After hosting the AABLAs for the last two years in Sun City, South Africa, we decided to bring the event back to Johannesburg for the convenience of our guests. In keeping with tradition, this was followed by the CNBC Africa annual golf day in support of the ABN Education Trust. The Trust supports the CSR activities of the ABN Group (CNBC Africa and FORBES AFRICA) with a specific mission to assist orphaned children and provide bursaries to children from disadvantaged families for university/tertiary education. Additionally, over the years, the Group has also provided internship opportunities to over 400 students to give them invaluable workplace experience. I encourage all business leaders and corporates to give serious thought to their purpose and have a strong focus on giving back to the communities that they serve.



2024 has passed by in a flash and for me, it will remain a year of elections and change that I hope and pray will be for the better. As we head to 2025, on behalf of the ABN family, I would like to take this opportunity to thank our readers, viewers, sponsors, partners, our Board, management and staff for the continued support over the years and wish everyone a happy and prosperous 2025.

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Expert-Speak: Election Victories, Climate Losses And The Year That Was

One of the highlights of the last period has been the much-awaited debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Most people I spoke with were unanimous about the deftness and mastery with which Harris handled the questions. However, the debatable issue remains whether she will be able to edge Trump out of the race for good. The real question is whether the American people are ready for a Black American and South Asian American woman to be in the White House. The debate itself was at times touching lows with personal attacks by Trump and his dismal record of untruths from the fact-check reports. Most people were alarmed at his choice of words for immigrants. There are other points that could have been highlighted, other than “eating pets”, to make a compelling argument on immigration. Leaders from the world’s most powerful country can surely elevate the level of conversations a few notches up.


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The outcome of the elections will have a number of consequences, particularly if Trump implements half the things he has said he will do, as soon as he is elected. This should make some of the NATO allies reflect a bit before making any rushed decisions in Ukraine. The decision to permit Ukraine to use long-range munitions to hit targets in Russia is not a well thought-through strategy. This will not end the war but only escalate it. Whatever moral high ground that exists today with Ukraine will be completely lost.



The sad reality is that this test of resolve that NATO wants, to check regarding Russian intent, may completely backfire on the Ukrainian people. It’s unlikely that, unless pushed, Russia will attack any other NATO country, but Ukraine will feel the brunt of an assault that will leave the country in rubble. It’s easy to experiment when one knows it’s not putting your own nation or people at risk but is this something that the Ukrainian people truly want? We shouldn’t take Volodymyr Zelensky’s word for this.



My personal view remains that it’s about time that the two leaders (Vladimir Putin and Zelensky) are brought to the negotiation table, and they agree on fundamentals. Russia is unlikely to allow NATO to come to their southern border and if this condition is met, Putin is likely to accept an end to the hostilities. I am sure that Putin has realized the futility of war and has also come to realize that future wars are not going to be so easy to win even with military superiority. The sad reality is that irrespective of whether the war continues or ends, Ukraine as a country is doomed. The debt caused by military aid and favors that on one hand, are piled up high, and the cost of reconstruction of the country, on the other, will ensure that the country remains in poverty for a long time to come. By the time the dust settles, all the strategic assets of Ukraine will in all likelihood be owned by NATO members.



As mere spectators, we continue to pray that good sense prevails on the leaders involved in Ukraine but also those that are sitting on the sidelines and watching the daily destruction and loss of human life in Gaza. Sadly, as we get older, it gets more difficult to comprehend these senseless and futile actions.



A positive attribute about growing old is that you become patient and reflective about everything. No more knee-jerk reactions or hasty decisions – unless your grandkids are about to sky-dive from the balcony. The status quo is maintained because we seem to be running in circles putting band-aids on everything happening around us. The perfect analogy is that whenever our grandkids get hurt or cry, we put on a band-aid or give them a pacifier and miraculously, the crying stops. A false sense of comfort until something else happens, which it does. And there begins the functional vicious circle of problems and fixes. Just like our everyday life. Has anyone ever wondered where our sense of tolerance comes from? It’s the band-aid fixes and pacifiers from the time we were born. They unconsciously get embedded into our DNA.



Following this DNA, our lives in Africa have also become transactional, where today’s problems are invariably getting postponed. This line of thinking started when one of our senior executives returned from Nigeria recently without meeting people face-to-face, as there was a fuel shortage, for which the ‘pacifier’ was to work from home. No one traveled to the office, and he could well have stayed in Ghana and had his meetings via Zoom. These day-to-day issues are now taken in one’s stride and we just accept them as status quo. We offer rationales in the form of band-aids, and no one is bold enough to ask questions or take decisive action.



Let’s get over today and tomorrow will fix itself. This reminds me of Scarlett O’ Hara (Vivien Leigh) in the 1939 film, Gone With The Wind. “I am too tired. I will think of it all tomorrow… After all, tomorrow is another day,” she says.



But just this point of pain (amongst many others) in Nigeria needs reflection. How can a country that is the 15th largest producer of oil in the world, is the fourth largest economy in Africa (from almost being first in 2013), whose exports are 90% of the total export income of the country, has over 20 oil billionaires, not be able to provide gasoline to its people at a reasonable rate and in a consistent manner? When this discussion gets expanded to the energy sector, the country has about 11,000MW of installed power capacity, of which less than 5,000MW is distributed against a demand of 40,000MW. Nigeria is often termed as oil-rich but energy-poor, quite the oxymoron. The net result of this is uncontrolled corruption, lack of governance, poor infrastructure, no industrial development, poor education, poor healthcare, hyperinflation, a volatile currency and a society that suffers as the government keeps postponing dealing with issues by another day, each day.



The idea was not to single out Nigeria but draw a similarity to issues being faced by people in many countries in Africa. There is endless opportunity in the continent and abundant talent but it’s all being systematically choked. As we attend more and more global business conferences and meetings and highlight the opportunities and positives about the continent, investors and partners look at us in amazement wondering whether we have lost our minds. Some countries have got their stories and implementation right, but these are smaller economies like Mauritius, Rwanda, Botswana, Zambia and a few others. South Africa is making its way back to comparatively better governance, but most others are not doing much to drive positive change. A lot more needs to be done, and we have to deal with the issues, as much of Africa’s problems are because of its own leaders and it is heart-wrenching to see the global disparity and divide continue to grow despite all the natural resources.



Rwanda continues to be the country where you can see growth and development with each visit irrespective of the frequency of travel. It was timely for me to be in Kigali in September as the country launched the $300 million Kigali Innovation City. The leadership understands its limitations and is trying to excel in areas that they can influence. This includes innovation, education, capacity-building, tourism, sports, conferences, education, financial services, mining and many others. There is a buzz in the city at all times to indicate that the thinktanks are constantly working to develop the economy and catalyze investments into the country. Most people do not associate mining with Rwanda. I was surprised to hear that the country today produces 8% of the world’s tungsten; one of the untold stories of the country.



We hosted CNBC Africa’s inaugural networking and golf day at the Kigali Golf Resort in September and had prominent guests come from the UAE, South Africa, Kenya and India to meet with local business- people and government departments. Our international guests were pleasantly surprised to see the smooth processes, starting with immigration at the airport to the hospitality at the Serena Hotel, along with the ease of meeting people. Everyone received a visa on arrival and there was no cost for the visa (a welcoming gesture). This is such a critical factor for the ease of travel and mobility of business travelers. Additionally, the infrastructure in the country is excellent and there is a method and process for everything. The country is continuing to focus on development and business but has not taken its eye off the importance of tourism and sports.



Much as golf may be seen as an elitist sport, it is ideal for business networking and getting to know each other better. The sport is becoming increasingly popular with the business community in Rwanda. Our golf day was a huge success with a large participation from women golfers. It was amazing to see this world-class facility come up in the center of Kigali and, once completed, the facilities will compare with the best in the world.


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On the issue of performance and governance, it is a well-known fact that all government officials (including ministers, diplomats, bureaucrats) in the country have an accountability report card to be filled in at the end of the year. There is no sense of complacency. This is unique to Africa and while we have seen this in places like Dubai and to some extent, Singapore, Rwanda is the only other country where the accountability and focus on service delivery is a main key performance indicator (KPI) for everyone. Our guests from overseas have taken back many lessons with the hope that they can replicate transformation in their respective countries.



Our October/November 2024 issue coincides with FORBES AFRICA’s 13th birthday. What a remarkable journey this has been for our team in building Africa’s premier business magazine! Even as conventional publishing has seen a decline, the brand association with Forbes remains a very powerful proposition for our market in Africa. As our team continues to tell Africa’s success stories of entrepreneurship and opportunities to inspire future generations, our young leadership is now working to drive change in our distribution to get wider coverage and increase accessibility to our viewers across the continent. Congratulations to Sid Wahi, Renuka Methil, Roberta Naicker and the team for another fantastic year.

Tag: Dr Rakesh Wahi

FORBES AFRICA SOCIAL MEDIA

Expert-Speak: Election Victories, Climate Losses And The Year That Was

Opinion: ‘Heart-Wrenching To See Global Disparity And Divide Continue To Grow’