<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-topline">TOPLINE</h2>



Climate change could cut life expectancy by half a year, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000339" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">research</a>&nbsp;published Thursday, illustrating another ominous consequence of human-driven global heating after scientists confirmed 2023 as the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2024/01/09/2023-was-officially-the-worlds-hottest-year-on-record/?sh=5b4ccc086655">hottest year on record</a>.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h2>



Changes in temperature and rainfall caused by climate change could shave six months off the average human lifespan, researcher Amit Roy said in a paper published in the journal PLOS Climate.



Roy, a researcher at The New School for Social Research and Bangladesh’s Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, came to the conclusion after analyzing life expectancy data from 191 countries between 1940 and 2020.



An annual temperature increase of 1 degree Celsius on its own would cut average human life expectancy by around five and a half months once other factors affecting lifespan like GDP are accounted for, Roy said.



Changes in rainfall—which is&nbsp;<a href="https://climate.ec.europa.eu/news-your-voice/news/how-climate-change-disrupting-rainfall-patterns-and-putting-our-health-risk-2023-08-03_en" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">disrupted</a>&nbsp;in a multitude of health-affecting ways by climate change—also have an impact on life expectancy, the data showed



Considered in isolation without temperature changes, an increase or decrease in rainfall could be both beneficial or detrimental depending on circumstances—for example, in an area already experiencing heavy rainfall or an area experiencing drought.



Forbes Daily: Get our best stories, exclusive reporting and essential analysis of the day’s news in your inbox every weekday.Sign Up



By signing up, you accept and agree to our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/terms-and-conditions" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Terms of Service</a>&nbsp;(including the class action waiver and arbitration provisions), and you acknowledge our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/privacy" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Privacy Statement</a>.



However, when considered alongside temperature changes, Roy—who developed a new composite index to consider the combined impact of the two features on life expectancy—found a more negative outcome, with a 10-point change on the index combining the two features leading to a six month drop on the average life expectancy.



Women and those in developing nations are disproportionately affected by the life expectancy hit, Roy said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h2>



Scientists have&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2024/01/09/2023-was-officially-the-worlds-hottest-year-on-record/?sh=5b4ccc086655">confirmed</a>&nbsp;2023 as the hottest year on record and experts warn 2024 could be hotter still. Experts overwhelmingly believe that human activity is driving significant and rapid climate change the likes of which our planet has never experienced and warn that even with drastic action to mitigate damage, a great deal of hardship from this is going to be in store for coming decades. While variations in climate are a normal and expected part of the planetary ecosystem, emissions of greenhouse gasses like carbon dioxide and methane have disrupted natural cycles and help lock heat inside the planetary system. These temperature increases have disrupted climatic patterns and features like rainfall, which can both decrease and cause problems in the form of phenomena like drought and increase and cause issues like flooding in wetter areas. Without drastic and swift action to cut emissions, scientists&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2023/10/25/here-are-6-tipping-points-the-un-warns-could-soon-spell-disaster-for-humanity-from-space-junk-to-disappearing-water/?sh=710d0f72797a">warn</a>&nbsp;we will cross planetary tipping points from which there may not be a return and extreme weather like storms, droughts and freezes are expected to increase in both frequency and severity.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-surprising-fact">SURPRISING FACT</h2>



While abundant research has documented a slew of negative health effects linked to climate change—including&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2023/11/21/extreme-heat-killed-over-70000-in-europe-last-year-study-finds-this-year-is-on-track-to-be-even-worse/?sh=62fbcdd57929">potentially lethal heat</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2022/04/28/climate-change-could-spark-future-pandemics-study-finds/?sh=a5d1e2b57873">the risk of new deadly pandemics</a>, an uptick in extreme weather events and natural disasters and risks for those with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/04/climate-crisis-poses-greatest-risk-to-people-with-respiratory-illnesses-experts-warn" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">breathing</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/publications/all-publications/the-impact-of-climate-change-on-mental-health-and-emotional-wellbeing-current-evidence-and-implications-for-policy-and-practice.php" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">mental health</a>&nbsp;problems—Roy said none had yet established a direct link between the phenomenon and life expectancy.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-crucial-quote">CRUCIAL QUOTE</h2>



“The global threat posed by climate change to the well-being of billions underscores the urgent need to address it as a public health crisis,” Roy said, adding: “mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and proactive initiatives are essential to safeguard life expectancy and protect the health of populations worldwide.&#8221;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-further-reading">FURTHER READING</h2>



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2024/01/09/2023-was-officially-the-worlds-hottest-year-on-record/?sh=5b4ccc086655">2023 Was Officially The World’s Hottest Year On Record</a> (Forbes)

Reports Indicate 2016 Was Hottest Year On Record

Climate Change Could Cut Months From Life Expectancy, Research Warns

September 2023 was a month of conferences.



It started off with the summit of the Norwegian-African Business Association in Oslo.



A Reuters event in London followed. Then the revered United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York. And the month finished with the AIIB Annual Meeting at Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt. Fascinating as always. Thousands of clever people flying around, talking and promising. Everywhere, the Africa question is dominant but cautious. Risk, coups, exchange rates, crime… are oft-repeated words.



The fine balance of today’s geopolitics means Africa has to appease to the rhetoric and the threats of a rejuvenated West while still looking at the East for all things important.



Tough for our leaders, fraught as their countries are with inflation, currency issues, elections, and poverty.



The fundamental architecture where Africa provides the minerals, and the world produces goods they then sell back to the continent creates an imbalance that no amount of Bretton Woods fiddling can resolve.



The climate challenge exposes the hypocrisy too. Africa, home to labor, land, minerals and oodles of sun, wind and water (read renewables).



Why keep manufacturing then outside its shores? At least one eminent minister told me that the Washington Consensus on Trade in the 1980s, which was 40 years after the original Bretton Woods’ party and now another 40 years later, the climate agenda (and the ESG paraphernalia), has one thing in common.



A 40-year itch perhaps.



Extract not engage. Lecture but not lead. Promise but not provide.



Can happy endings come from this relentless pursuit of a status quo camouflaged as aid and grant?



The question is: what then?



Possibly the BRICS bank is the answer to getting an alter ego?



They seem serious albeit the principle of ‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend’-kind-of binding force. Well, my school had said ‘charity begins at home’.



My mother, like all mothers, had told me: “You don’t get what you want, you get what you deserve.” And my little daughter used to say: “United we stand, divided we fall.”



African unity cannot remain a myth. African collaboration cannot be an illusion. African solidarity cannot be confined to speeches. The global quest for minerals, gas and gold interlaced with ‘dead aid’, fits nicely into the greed, guilt, and fear syndrome. How do we collectively enhance that fear factor?



The fear of food shortage when Africa has so much arable land.



The fear of global warming when Africa can absorb it all through its forests.



The fear of energy sourcing when Africa has all the gas, oil and the coal the world needs.



The fear of growth when Africa has the youngest and largest unserved markets.



The fear of supply chain concentration when Africa has the obvious renewable energy- based manufacturing at source (critical minerals) solutions. The fear of mass immigration; fundamentalism when simply adding value to Africa’s resources will create jobs and keep them south of the Mediterranean.



Collective bargaining, anyone?



Into that valley of hope let Africa awake. To take charge and be masters of our own destiny. Maybe we should start with banning Africa’s soccer stars from playing in Europe? That should make them feel the pinch – or at the very least, let’s make a pledge to not export any raw materials without value addition at source. Therein lies the start to a world where jobs exist and prosperity reigns.

African woman plucking tea leaves on plantation, East Africa

The Conundrum Facing Africa. Question Is: What Then?

Since the 1980s, the term ‘just transition’ has been touted as the answer to our climate challenges. Against the industrial revolution(s) backdrop, this transition referred to the deliberate shift towards more sustainable and green practices. The ‘just transition’ is the responsible move from a high- to a low-carbon economy. 



Yet, an often forgotten aspect of this transition is the very descriptor ‘just’. The reality is that much climate change action happens in silos. A distinct gap between the Global North and the Global South seems to persist. As Irina Velicu and Stefania Barca asserted in 2019: “Since both ecological and social crises are produced via inequalities, a just transition can be a transition out of the logic of unequal relations — rather than just out of fossil fuels.” In other words, our responsibility extends beyond borders and encompasses more than just shifting to a low- carbon economy. In this regard, there are some glaring challenges.



Firstly, there are financial constraints. Here, the gap between the Global North and the Global South is painfully apparent. Much of the Global South is already explicitly confronted by the impact of climate change, and there is a clarion call for the Global North to help fund interventions. The reality is that the Global South lacks the funding and resources to take on this fight alone. According to UNCTAD, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of just half of the developing world is projected at $5.8 trillion by 2030. Yet, only $83.3 billion was provided and mobilized by developed countries for climate initiatives in developing countries in 2020, $16.7 billion short of the annual goal. 



This has been compounded by the constrained fiscal context in much of the developing world, which the Covid-19 pandemic has exacerbated. Moreover, many countries in the Global South are still in the initial stages of industrialization and economic development and implementing strict environmental regulations can hinder this progress if they do not have access to critical green technologies such as solar power.



Secondly, the technological gap creates a disparity in implementing sustainable practices. The concentration of intellectual property (IP) ownership in advanced economies has led to difficulties for developing countries to access green technology innovation. This concentration hampers their progress in Global Value Chains and forces them to rely on costly methods to establish domestic capacities. Additionally, there are barriers to transferring green technology. This unwillingness to share IP might similarly hinder global efforts in climate technologies, causing divisions and tensions despite the urgent need for global cooperation. 



Countries with clear policies supporting research, innovation, and technology development tend to have more robust technological capacity, yet there is minimal alignment across developing countries. The Global North is the locus of primary innovation – armed with resources, knowledge, technology and ability. To combat this challenge, a diffusion practice is imperative to assist the Global South in mirroring these practices. Diffusion allows for the sharing of IP, so that innovative practices are easily adopted.



Thirdly, capacity disparities exist between the Global South and the Global North and within the Global South. Alongside financial and technological gaps, there are also infrastructure challenges. Countries in the Global South range from highly industrialized economies to those struggling with basic infrastructure – this is often apparent through service delivery challenges. There are also disparities in education and research capacities. Additionally, it is important to consider the severity of the challenges in the Global South and where they are realistically able to place climate change in our contextual coat hangers. Research demonstrates that the Global South is disproportionately impacted by the setback in the sustainable development goals (SDGs).



A grim reality is that this is a difficult balancing act in many of these regions. The just transition, however, does also have a ripple impact on other SDGs, particularly concerning clean energy, decent employment, economic metrics, inequality and sustainable production and consumption.



Velicu and Barca argue that we need to rethink the just transition through the lens of equality through an approach that focuses on equity rather than equality. In other words, if the Global South received equal diffusion of resources, it would not be as beneficial as if they received an equitable or proportionate resource. As Damian White concluded in 2020: “Decarbonizing, decolonizing, democratizing and de-commodifying our carbon-intensive material world is going to require… the unleashing of enormous amounts of creative labour and inventive praxis to build public institutions, a public ecology and a public culture to allow us to survive and flourish on a warming planet.” What is abundantly apparent is that without bridging these gaps and ensuring the inclusion of the Global South, the just transition will remain a dream deferre

Rethinking ‘Just Transition’ In Africa

Ghana has secured critical financing support for its climate adaptation and mitigation endeavors during the recently concluded 2023 International Monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank Group (WBG) Annual Meetings. Finance minister Ken Ofori-Atta disclosed this to the Ghana News Agency.



At the forefront of this support is the World Bank&#8217;s International Finance Cooperation (IFC), pledging funding to bolster Ghana&#8217;s implementation of diverse climate change initiatives. These projects aim to fuel sustainable growth, foster a habitable planet, and generate employment opportunities.



Sharing his thoughts on this development, Ofori-Atta expressed optimism about the impact on Africa as a whole. &#8220;We have a huge seat at the table [of V20] now, and that will reflect on the whole of Africa, enabling us to design and understand where financing is going, especially in carbon credit financing,&#8221; he told the news agency.



He emphasized the positive outcomes of discussions with the World Bank and IFC, anticipating substantial resources and innovative financing schemes for climate mitigation and adaptation. &#8220;Beyond the stability that you bring with an IMF program, you need to look at growth,&#8221; he stated, underlining the focus on private investment and strengthening the system.



Highlighting the urgency of the climate agenda, Ofori-Atta pointed out its alignment with crucial sectors such as electronic vehicles and solar energy. &#8220;This aligns with the type of resources needed to make growth more effective and sustainable,&#8221; he added.



Ghana, as the headquarters of V20 (the Vulnerable 20 Group), is poised to lead and harness new ideas and global technology to accelerate the nation&#8217;s climate change agenda. Ofori-Atta affirmed that economic growth in Ghana would prioritize addressing climate change issues, with a commitment to translating stability into sustainable job opportunities for citizens.



Speaking with FORBES AFRICA, Ghanaian social entrepreneur Prince Fiadzigbe expresses optimism and cautious enthusiasm about the development.



Fiadzigbe highlights the critical importance of utilizing the funds effectively to address the pressing challenges posed by the climate crisis. &#8220;Hoping these funds are channeled into proper use by the government and leadership in the climate space for interventions whose results would see us better adapting to the climate crisis and mitigating it as a country,&#8221; he emphasizes.



Fiadzigbe commends the international community&#8217;s commitment to supporting climate initiatives in developing nations. He stresses the need for strategic and transparent allocation of resources to ensure that the intended goals are achieved.



&#8220;Ghana has been presented with a significant opportunity to bolster its resilience against climate change impacts and contribute meaningfully to global efforts in combating environmental challenges,&#8221; Fiadzigbe remarks. He calls for collaboration between government agencies, private sectors, and non-governmental organizations to implement comprehensive and sustainable climate solutions.



The entrepreneur urges the Ghanaian leadership to prioritize projects that not only address immediate climate concerns but also foster long-term environmental sustainability. &#8220;It&#8217;s imperative that we invest in initiatives that not only mitigate the current effects of climate change but lay the foundation for a more sustainable and resilient future for generations to come,&#8221; he states.



As Ghana navigates the complex landscape of climate adaptation and mitigation, Fiadzigbe remains hopeful that the secured financing will mark a turning point in the nation&#8217;s environmental efforts. He encourages ongoing dialogue and collaboration between stakeholders to ensure a coordinated and effective response to the climate crisis.



Fiadzigbe also emphasizes the importance of ensuring that these funds are deployed effectively to benefit local communities.



&#8220;While securing financing is a crucial milestone, it&#8217;s equally important to ensure that these resources reach the grassroots level, empowering communities to adapt to climate change and participate in sustainable practices,&#8221; he notes.

Ghana Debt is Sliding Into Distress

Ghana Secures Financing For Climate Initiatives At IMF/WBG Annual Meetings

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-topline"><a href="https://policies.google.com/privacy" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>TOPLINE</h2>



A drought in Spain, record-high temperatures and a pause in Turkish exports have driven prices of Spanish olive oil to a record high of $8,900 per ton this month, and there&#8217;s no clear indication as to when they&#8217;ll fall.



Extreme hot weather and persistent drought conditions have dealt a severe blow to olive oil&nbsp;&#8230; [+]ANADOLU AGENCY VIA GETTY IMAGES



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h2>



&#8220;Extremely dry weather in much of the Mediterranean&#8221; has been blamed for the skyrocketing prices of olive oil—up 130% from last year—by the&nbsp;<a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/oilseeds.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">U.S. Department of Agriculture</a>, which warns the only thing that could bring them down in the coming months would be improved growing conditions.



The Catalonia region of Spain&nbsp;<a href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/08/09/we-have-never-seen-it-so-low-spain-introduces-water-restrictions-as-reservoirs-run-dry#:~:text=Drought%20is%20leaving%20reservoirs%20empty&amp;text=Spain%20registered%20the%20driest%20start,Andalusia%20being%20the%20most%20affected." target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">declared</a>&nbsp;a drought emergency in 24 municipalities in August after 30 months of little rain, and the drought has dried up reservoirs, parched olive groves and led to restrictions on water use across the country, per&nbsp;<a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151366/spain-browned-by-drought" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">NASA</a>.



The lack of rain has coincided with the nation’s third-hottest summer on record: The Spanish meteorological agency&nbsp;<a href="https://www.aemet.es/en/noticias/2023/09/avance_verano_2023" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">says</a>&nbsp;four heat waves were recorded this summer, temperatures were 2.3°F (1.3°C) higher than normal on average and meteorologists are predicting a warmer-than-normal autumn.



Italy and Greece, which also grow a significant portion of the world’s olives, have also seen hot, dry seasons, with Italy recording&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/anafaguy/2023/08/07/extreme-heat-in-southern-italy-increased-july-death-rate-officials-say/?sh=4ab63d9c2664">temperatures</a>&nbsp;over 40°C (104°F), and Greece, where major tourist attractions&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2023/07/15/europes-dangerous-heat-wave-greece-closes-acropolis-as-warnings-issued-across-italy-spain-and-germany/?sh=7b774c7e39c0">were closed</a>&nbsp;due to the heat, notching temperatures just as high.



Spain, the world’s largest producer and exporter of olive oil, made 50% less oil in its most recent season, CNBC&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/19/olive-oil-prices-surge-over-100percent-leading-to-cooking-oil-thefts.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">reported</a>, and prices have been further impacted by Turkey&#8217;s decision&nbsp;<a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/oilseeds.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">to suspend</a>&nbsp;bulk oil exports until at least November 1 in a move meant to ensure domestic supplies and alleviate price pressure.



Before this August, the previous record price for olive oil was set at $6,242 per ton in 1996, according to the USDA.



Picture shows healthy olives grown using an irrigation system developed by researchers of the&nbsp;&#8230; [+]AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-big-number">BIG NUMBER</h2>



610,000 tons. That&#8217;s how much olive oil Spain produced in the recent season, compared to a usual yield of 1.3 to 1.5 million tons.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h2>



The global olive oil market was valued at $14.2 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow to $18.4 billion by 2030, Fortune Business Insights&nbsp;<a href="https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industry-reports/olive-oil-market-101455" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">predicts</a>. Spain manufactures almost half of the world&#8217;s olive oil,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.internationaloliveoil.org/the-world-of-olive-oil/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">followed by</a>&nbsp;producers in Italy, Greece, Portugal, Tunisia, Turkey and Morocco. Greeks are the largest olive oil consumer per capita,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.aboutoliveoil.org/olive-oil-production-by-country" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">according to&nbsp;</a>the North American Olive Oil Association, followed by Spain and Italy. Greeks consume about 20 liters of olive oil per person each year, compared to about 1 liter per American. The size of the United States compared to other nations, however—only about 10.6 million people live in Greece compared to 331 million in the U.S.—makes the nation a major consumer: The&nbsp;<a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/oilseeds.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">USDA</a>&nbsp;said American imports usually make up about 30% of the global olive oil trade, and that number is expected to rise to between 35% and 37% this year.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-surprising-fact">SURPRISING FACT</h2>



A theft of about 50,000 liters of extra virgin olive oil left one of the nation&#8217;s family-owned mills, Marin Serrano El Lagar, out about $450,000, local news&nbsp;<a href="https://www.elmundo.es/andalucia/2023/08/31/64f0462efc6c8312768b459c.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">reported</a>. No arrests have been made in the theft and a spokesperson for the Civil Guard told&nbsp;El Mundo&nbsp;that stealing in bulk, rather than bottles, makes tracking the oil particularly hard. Just two weeks before that, another 6,000 liters of extra virgin olive oil—$53,500 worth—<a href="https://www.elmundo.es/andalucia/2023/08/23/64e5e1bdfc6c8303668b4591.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">was stolen</a>&nbsp;from the Terraverne oil mill.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tangent">TANGENT</h2>



Olive oil isn&#8217;t the only commodity to have seen cost jumps this summer,&nbsp;Business Insider&nbsp;<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/foodflation-cocoa-surges-12-year-high-orange-juice-hit-record-2023-7?_gl=1*1147odj*_ga*MTgyMjM0ODk0OC4xNjg2NzU2MDU1*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTY5NTIxNjY5My4yNS4xLjE2OTUyMTY4OTIuMjMuMC4w" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">reported</a>. Cocoa, orange juice, wheat and soybeans all surged this summer as heavy rainfall and disease impacted West Africa&#8217;s cocoa supply, a crop disease hit citrus plants in Florida and Brazil and Russia pulled out of the deal allowing the export of grain from Ukraine. Soybean prices&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/global-grains-idAFL1N38128J" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">also soared</a>&nbsp;this summer after the USDA reported much lower-than-expected soy plantings.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-further-reading">FURTHER READING</h2>



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2023/08/23/india-to-ban-sugar-exports-in-addition-to-rice-as-corn-soybeans-and-more-crops-falter-in-extreme-heat-and-drought/?sh=56d252986d6c">India To Ban Sugar Exports In Addition To Rice—As Corn, Soybeans And More Crops Falter In Extreme Heat And Drought</a>&nbsp;(Forbes)



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2023/08/21/out-with-shrimp-in-with-jellyfish-seafood-industry-facing-potential-overhaul-due-to-climate-change/?sh=2c38609723bb">Out With Shrimp, In With Jellyfish? Seafood Industry Facing Potential Overhaul Due To Climate Change</a>&nbsp;(Forbes)



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/chloesorvino/2022/06/26/heres-the-latest-data-on-climate-and-food-and-its-not-good/?sh=1229c7592e52">Here’s The Latest Data On Climate And Food And It’s Not Good</a>&nbsp;(Forbes)



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/chloesorvino/2022/09/02/us-farmers-struggle-through-drought-to-bring-food-to-the-table-but-face-more-challenges-ahead/?sh=7119cadcfc08">U.S. Farmers Struggle Through Drought To Bring Food To The Table But Face More Challenges Ahead</a> (Forbes)

Oil pump with candle stick graph chart in the background. World Oil Industry

Olive Oil Prices Jump 50%—And Climate Change Might Be Why

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-topline">TOPLINE</h2>



Some 56% of the world’s oceans have become greener over the last two decades, and it&#8217;s probably because of human-caused climate change, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02262-9" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">a new study</a>&nbsp;published Wednesday in the journal&nbsp;Nature&nbsp;that could offer clues about how climate change is impacting the ocean’s ecosystem.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h2>



The researchers in the study used satellite imagery to detect changes in color across the ocean from 2002 to 2022, and found tropical areas near the equator, mostly between the latitudes of 40º south and 40º north, have steadily become greener.



The scientists said this discovery is surprising because they previously expected they’d need over 30 years of data to spot signs of climate change in the color of the oceans, but they were able to spot it with just 20 years’ worth.



There are many reasons the ocean might change color, but the researchers said year-to-year variability in the color of the oceans alone cannot explain such drastic changes.



The researchers were unable to identify exactly why the color was changing, but theorized it might have to do with how nutrients are distributed in the ocean—as the Earth becomes warmer, the upper layers of the ocean become more stratified, making it harder for nutrients, which feed green phytoplankton, to rise to the surface.



While they were unable to say the exact cause of the change, the scientists believe climate change is the driver of the change.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h2>



The color of the ocean is vital to understanding the broader ecosystem, said B. B. Cael, the study’s lead author and an ocean and climate scientist at the National Oceanography Centre in the U.K. “The reason we care about the colour is because the colour tells us something about what’s happening in the ecosystem,” Cael told&nbsp;Nature&nbsp;in a piece accompanying the study. The authors said the ocean’s color could affect phytoplankton populations by changing how much light enters the ocean. This ultimately could impact ocean biodiversity, fisheries and the ability of the ocean to store carbon, they concluded. “Our findings therefore might be of relevance for ocean conservation and governance,” they wrote in the study.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-contra">CONTRA</h2>



The study’s authors caution that it&#8217;s still possible this change is the result of a big natural swing rather than climate change. They said they’ll need around 40 years of data to say conclusively that climate change is to blame.



Forbes Daily: Get our best stories, exclusive reporting and essential analysis of the day’s news in your inbox every weekday.Sign Up



By signing up, you accept and agree to our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/terms-and-conditions" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Terms of Service</a>&nbsp;(including the class action waiver and arbitration provisions), and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/privacy" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Privacy Statement</a>.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-crucial-quote">CRUCIAL QUOTE</h2>



“We are affecting the ecosystem in a way that we haven’t seen before,” Cael, said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-to-watch-for">WHAT TO WATCH FOR</h2>



The next big satellite mission to observe ocean color. The authors of the study said one of the challenges was that they had to use multiple different satellites that all measured ocean color in different ways. But an upcoming NASA satellite mission will offer more uniform measurement, helping researchers understand how climate change is impacting the oceans. Set to launch in January 2024, this new satellite will use “hyperspectral” imaging to observe ocean color, which will allow it to see more wavelengths than any previous satellite.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-further-reading">FURTHER READING</h2>



<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06321-z" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology</a>&nbsp;(Nature)



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2023/06/13/montana-youth-sue-state-over-climate-change-policies/?sh=6b88471a7d7c">Montana Youth Sue State Over Climate Change Policies</a>&nbsp;(Forbes)



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/willskipworth/2023/07/04/july-3-earth-experiences-hottest-day-on-record/?sh=3b933a0c2d96">July 3: Earth Experiences Hottest Day On Record</a>&nbsp;(Forbes)



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2023/07/05/july-4-was-earths-hottest-day-in-over-100000-years-breaking-record-for-2nd-day-in-a-row/?sh=103ce7667dd9">July 4 Was Earth’s Hottest Day In Over 100,000 Years—Breaking Record For 2nd Day In A Row</a>&nbsp;(Forbes)



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2023/06/26/why-sriracha-prices-are-surging-and-why-climate-change-might-have-something-to-do-with-it/?sh=cf645447ab12">Why Sriracha Prices Are Surging, And Why Climate Change Might Have Something To Do With It </a>(Forbes)

Aerial View of the sunrise colors reflecting on the blue ocean with a single surfer

Climate Change Is Likely Changing Color Of Oceans, Scientists Say—Here’s Why It Matters

By Yacine Fal



Of all continents, Africa is least responsible for climate change. It has contributed only a minute part of the greenhouse gas emissions that are responsible for the climate emergency the world faces today. Yet, Africa faces the same arduous battle as the rest of the world to tackle the impacts of climate change, and to make itself resilient to climate change.&nbsp;



Today, Africa remains one of the most vulnerable and the least climate-resilient regions in the world. This is manifest across all corners of the continent. In the Horn of Africa, millions are threatened as a historic drought looms. In the Sahel, climate change is fueling insecurity because of increasingly scarce resources. And southern Africa is experiencing lethal rain and floods. Action has never been more urgent.&nbsp;&nbsp;



These climate change-induced challenges cut across many countries and sub-regions of the continent. With improved regional integration and deeper regional cooperation, African countries could rally around collective climate adaptation solutions and accelerate a just energy transition. The regional approach would elevate the individual voices of countries and facilitate access to increased global climate finance.&nbsp;



The urgency of regional climate adaptation and climate mitigation action is critical to Africa’s future. This is why the African Development Bank is spearheading regional initiatives that intersect with climate adaptation, energy transition and sustainability across the entire continent. The Bank is integrating these initiatives into its country and regional strategies, anchoring them on its High 5 priorities and weaving them into every Bank-supported operation.&nbsp;&nbsp;



These operations encompass renewable energy, modernized transport infrastructure and logistics, industrialization and regional trade, and trade finance – initiatives all geared towards strengthening regional integration.&nbsp;



Bank financing in Kenya, Morocco, and Democratic Republic of the Congo has supported geothermal, solar and hydropower projects that are clean, renewable, and which bring electricity to underserved households and small business markets. In many cases, these investments are providing power across borders and encouraging growth in regional trade.&nbsp;&nbsp;



In agriculture, the African Development Bank is focusing on climate-proofing and modernizing agricultural systems. It is also increasing productivity. This is helping more African countries pursue sustainable practices and to graduate from subsistence to surplus economies. These efforts are tackling bottlenecks and practices that continue to cause food insecurity, displacements, and conflict.&nbsp;&nbsp;



More broadly, several African Development Bank initiatives are helping to lay an effective foundation for commodity-based regional value chains that will ensure African food security. Examples are the Bank’s Technologies for African Agricultural Transformation (TAAT) program, the Special Agro-Industrial Processing zones (SAPZs) initiative, and broader investments in physical infrastructure, logistics, information communications technology, and innovation. These initiatives are also helping to build a robust, surplus-generating, continent-wide agribusiness sector based on modern and sustainable practices.&nbsp;



As part of its strategic approach, the African Development Bank continues to collaborate closely with regional actors like Africa’s regional economic communities, African countries, and development partners to mobilize climate action and financing for the continent. The Bank’s leadership has full confidence that with all parties working together, it will achieve climate justice for Africa.&nbsp;



– The writer is Acting Vice President, Regional Development, Integration and Business Delivery at the African Development Bank Group.

Girls carrying water buckets at a borehole in Malawi

What Can Be Done To Achieve Climate Justice For Africa  

The recent eye-opening Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report sent tremors around the world. The IPCC represents the sum total of global knowledge regarding climate change, and the report has been described as a ‘code red’ for humanity. FORBES AFRICA speaks exclusively with Professor Francois Engelbrecht, one of South Africa’s pre-eminent climatologists and lead author on the report on the collective decisions needed to combat the crisis.



Q: The recent IPCC report details keeping the globe below an average of 1.5ºC increase. Why is this temperature target so crucial to combating climate change?&nbsp; &nbsp; A:&nbsp;So&nbsp;the most important targets we need to look at here are those of 1.5ºC and 2.0ºC. When we look at climate change from a global perspective, once these temperature increases have been exceeded, some aspects of climate change may become irreversible; for example, the melting of the Greenland Ice&nbsp;Sheet – the melting may become unstoppable regardless of human technology.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; This will negatively impact the rising of sea levels globally, and also increase the rate of extreme weather events such as wildfires and storm systems among other things.&nbsp;This is similarly true for the Arctic Ice Shelf, which has been studied to a lesser degree – somewhere between&nbsp;these two temperature&nbsp;targets we have a high&nbsp;likelihood of being able to reverse these changes.&nbsp; &nbsp; The IPCC report presents low- and high-mitigation strategies; obviously, the best solution for us as a species is to pursue the high-mitigation&nbsp;strategies. However, the IPCC is strictly policy-neutral – we are here to present policy-relevant findings, and it’s up to national governments and people to decide the way forward.&nbsp;



&nbsp; Q:&nbsp;There is obviously a massive discrepancy in contributions to climate change between developed and developed nations, both in their historical contributions and current contributions per capita.&nbsp;Some would ask valid questions as to how nations with these differences would be able to reconcile in order to meet the IPCC targets?&nbsp;



A:&nbsp;The threat that climate change presents&nbsp;is a species-level threat. As scientists,&nbsp;we set up these reports, in the end,&nbsp;it’s the governments of the world that have to choose how to deal with this. In the last two decades, one could argue that they haven’t been able to move forward collectively, finding a solution that works for everyone. The priorities of individual nations have featured prominently in these negotiations, and stark differences in positions of countries have been taken.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; At the IPCC regional representation has always featured prominently, and the IPCC special report of 2018 was largely driven by negotiations from the small island development cases and the Africa group – what you can term negotiation blocs. The reason for this is that the way in which climate change affects regions can be vastly&nbsp;different.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; The upcoming COP26 (UN Climate Change Conference) in November will be crucial. A solution must be found that is best for everyone, not in the interest of a few countries. One major aspect of hope is&nbsp;that all countries are affected; even the most developed countries with the best infrastructure to cope against extreme&nbsp;weather are feeling the impact.&nbsp;This is one area where nations who have had historical differences – such as the USA and China – might find themselves co-operating. If the economic powerhouses are in agreement, the rest of the world will have to cooperate.&nbsp; &nbsp; Using South Africa as an example, roughly speaking,&nbsp;we are only responsible for around 1% of global C02 emissions. We might argue that the developing world hasn’t had the opportunity to develop using fossil fuels unlike some developed nations. While this might be fair, the hard reality as that it is not in our interest to do so, because the impact of climate change will be tremendously felt here as in other developing nations, and our adaptive capacity and existing infrastructure [to fight climate change] is so much lower.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; Under the Paris Agreement, the budget was meant to be allocated to developing economies for big infrastructure projects to make them less vulnerable to the impact&nbsp;of further warming and to develop from renewable sources. A big sticking point is that these&nbsp;promised funds never materialized as they should.&nbsp; &nbsp; If we take Namibia’s recent discovery of oil for example; if Namibia chooses not to exploit that oil, it’s only fair that they are compensated and supported to rather build solar farms or the like with investment from developed countries; the point is that everyone contributes their&nbsp;fair&nbsp;share for their own interest.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; Q: While the 1.5ºC target exists as a global average, the&nbsp;regional impact&nbsp;of climate change obviously vary very widely. What is the&nbsp;impact and future expected&nbsp;impact on an environment like southern Africa?&nbsp;



  A: Well, we’ve already seen the regional impact of this on South Africa clearly. In a warmer world, cold fronts that usually bring winter rain to the southern African coast are already shifting toward the South Pole – there’s an increased risk of having several years in a row with low frontal rainfall – and this risk has been increasing as the planet continues to warm. The Cape Town drought of 2015-2017; the risks of such a drought to occur is already three times higher than what it should be.     During the last major El Nino event, we had a four-year drought that ended in September of 2016. In Gauteng for example, [during that drought], the Vaal Dam, which supplies around 50% of Johannesburg’s water, dropped below 25%. If you speak to Rand Water, they’ll tell you that if the water level drops below 20%, for water quality and engineering reasons, the Dam will no longer be able to supply water.    Part of our job is to consider the worst case scenarios. If we reach a global increase of 3ºC, both the maize crop and the cattle industry in southern Africa are likely to collapse, due to the combined workings of more frequent droughts and heatwaves of unprecedented intensity and duration. This is the single biggest risk for South Africa at the moment in terms of climate change, and in the next decade this risk will keep on growing. Our job is to quantify that risk and how it’s increasing, because these regional tipping points are something we need to be extremely aware of.    



Q: Many people who’ve read news articles and follow the IPCC report might feel that there isn’t very much hope for change. How do you feel about this?&nbsp; &nbsp; A:&nbsp;The November negotiations are going to be fascinating – they are our one big chance for a&nbsp;fair agreement, and there’s substantial hope that we can avoid the 2ºC increase.&nbsp;



&nbsp; There’s this assumption that people care more about their children than themselves, but if you look at our collective decisions around climate change, one can wonder if that is true, because the world we are leaving future generations will be far&nbsp;more harsh, and cause tremendous hardship and tragedy.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; However&nbsp;if we do care more about the future than ourselves as a species, we need to accept the costs in the short-term so that we can have substantial benefits in the long-term.&nbsp;One example is that the&nbsp;estimated cost&nbsp;[for the world] to convert&nbsp;from fossil fuels to renewable energy&nbsp;will be&nbsp;around $130 trillion&nbsp;– while we accept those costs, more opportunities and investments will appear, growth in GDP due to renewables etc. When other scientists, specialists in what we call integrated assessment models,&nbsp;look at these scenarios, they assess&nbsp;that benefits&nbsp;can be substantial, four times the cost of moving away from fossil fuels.&nbsp;



&nbsp; What I tell my students is that the world is going to change substantially due to climate change-induced effects. There will be a revolution over the next 20 years towards renewable energy, in the South African economy and landscape, and as future environmental scientists, they have an important role to play to help South Africa understand these risks and choose the best path forwards.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Screenshot 2021-08-17 at 15.55.15

‘Risk Will Keep Growing’: Professor Francois Engelbrecht In Exclusive Interview On The New IPCC Report And Worst Case Scenarios In Southern Africa

TOPLINE: In addition to the threat of Covid-19, athletes taking part in the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games will also face the dangers of extreme heat as soaring temperatures in the Japanese capital, spurred on by climate change, look set to make this year’s Games the hottest on record.&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h3>



This year’s summer Olympics are slated to be the among the hottest ever, with peak temperatures&nbsp;<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/17/weather/olympics-heat-forecast-climate/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">predicted</a>&nbsp;to average around 30 degrees Celsius, or nearly 90 degrees Fahrenheit.&nbsp;



Combined with Tokyo’s stifling humidity, the dangerous conditions—which have&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/jul/20/tokyo-olympics-fears-athletes-could-face-hottest-games-on-record?CMP=twt_a-world_b-gdnworld" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">prompted</a>&nbsp;multiple government notices warning residents against exercising outdoors—impair&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57255563" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">performance</a>&nbsp;and put athletes at risk from heat-related conditions like heatstroke, dehydration and burns, with beach volleyball players already&nbsp;<a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/burning-sand-and-35c-sun-promise-hottest-olympics-ever-zlt0q65n2" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">complaining</a>&nbsp;the sand is too hot to play on.&nbsp;



The issue was not unforeseen to organizers, who made the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/nov/01/2020-olympics-tokyo-accepts-painful-decision-to-move-marathon-to-sapporo" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">decision</a>&nbsp;to change event times and move marathon and walking events out of Tokyo in an attempt to avoid the heat, but is becoming a more pressing issue for all sports events as climate change drives temperatures up.



Outside of the Olympics, major&nbsp;<a href="https://inews.co.uk/sport/tennis/australian-open-2020-heat-rule-temperature-hot-melbourne-suspended-matches-383229" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">tennis</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/28075216" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">soccer</a>&nbsp;tournaments have had to put&nbsp;<a href="https://eu.usatoday.com/story/sports/tennis/2018/08/28/us-open-new-heat-rule-allows-players-10-minute-break/1123268002/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">policies</a>&nbsp;in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/about_wimbledon/heat_rule.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">place</a>&nbsp;to protect players from extreme heat, U.S. triathlons and horse races have been&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/07/19/heat-wave-prompts-cancellations-new-york-triathlon-horse-races/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">canceled</a>&nbsp;due to heatwaves and the world’s biggest sporting event, the soccer World Cup, will be held in climate-controlled&nbsp;<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/21/football/qatar-2022-fifa-world-cup-spt-intl/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">stadia</a>&nbsp;to avoid the worst of host nation Qatar’s heat in 2022.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



The effects of climate change are not restricted to extreme heat: shortening winter seasons pose an&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/56972369" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">existential threat&nbsp;</a>to snowsports, severe typhoons led to several 2019 Rugby World Cup matches to be&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/live/2019/oct/10/rugby-world-cup-tournament-japan-super-typhoon-hagibis-england-scotland-france-game-live" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">canceled</a>&nbsp;and smoke from wildfires has disrupted numerous outdoor events across the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-sport-idUSKCN1UJ0OC" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">U.S.</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/1/15/21065784/australian-open-wildfire-smoke-health-effects-tennis" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Australia</a>.&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-crucial-quote">CRUCIAL QUOTE</h3>



The International Olympic Committee told&nbsp;Forbes&nbsp;it “takes concerns about heat very seriously” and has taken a “wide range of measures” to mitigate the effect of temperature on athletes. These measures include scheduling longer distance athletics and cycling events later in the day, moving equestrian and triathlon events to early morning and improving access to shade and water.&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h3>



Tokyo’s Medical Association has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/jul/20/tokyo-olympics-fears-athletes-could-face-hottest-games-on-record?CMP=twt_a-world_b-gdnworld" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">stressed</a>&nbsp;that holding the games in July and August was “a serious issue even before the coronavirus pandemic” and a report by the British Association for Sustainable Sport&nbsp;<a href="https://basis.org.uk/rings-of-fire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">outlined</a>&nbsp;the likelihood of impaired performance due to heat. Heat has already been an issue in the lead up to the event—three rowers were&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/aug/12/concerns-rise-with-tokyo-heat-after-rowers-treated-at-olympic-test-event" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">treated</a>&nbsp;for heat exhaustion after an Olympics test event in Tokyo in 2019—and other sporting events around the world are increasingly encountering similar problems. 28 out of 68 starters&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/49860159" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">pulled</a>&nbsp;out of a World Championships marathon held in Doha, Qatar in 2019 due to the conditions, with one runner being taken away in an ambulance. The race started at midnight in an attempt to avoid the worst of Qatar’s heat.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-big-number">BIG NUMBER</h3>



71,000. That’s how many people sought emergency care for heatstroke between June and September 2019 in Japan. 118 of these died. A smaller number—65,000 cases and 112 deaths—occurred during the same period in 2020, though fewer people were out due to the pandemic.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-to-watch-for">WHAT TO WATCH FOR&nbsp;</h3>



Qatar’s cooled stadia for the 2022 World Cup will likely give an insight into how outdoor sports events can be held in hot weather, especially if its cooling&nbsp;<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/21/football/qatar-2022-fifa-world-cup-spt-intl/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">technology</a>&nbsp;is both ecologically friendly and effective. The event is set to be carbon&nbsp;<a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/health-consumers/news/fifa-commits-to-carbon-neutral-2022-football-world-cup/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">neutral</a>, as are the forthcoming summer and winter Olympics’, the IOC told&nbsp;Forbes. Paris 2024 is&nbsp;<a href="https://olympics.com/ioc/news/paris-2024-commits-to-staging-climate-positive-olympic-and-paralympic-games" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">slated</a>&nbsp;to be the first “climate positive” games.&nbsp;&nbsp;



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-further-reading">FURTHER READING</h4>



<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/jul/20/tokyo-olympics-fears-athletes-could-face-hottest-games-on-record?CMP=twt_a-world_b-gdnworld" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tokyo Olympics: fears athletes could face hottest Games on record</a>&nbsp;(Guardian)



<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-sport-idUSKCN1UJ0OC" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Canceled races, fainting players: Climate change turns up heat on sports</a>&nbsp;(Reuters)



<a href="https://www.rapidtransition.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Playing_Against_The_Clock_FINAL.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Playing Against the Clock: Global Sport, the Climate Emergency and the Case For Rapid Change</a>&nbsp;(Rapid Transition Alliance)



By Robert Hart, Forbes Staff

Aerial view of Munich’s Olympic stadium illuminated at night

As Record Heat Threatens Tokyo Olympics, Here’s What Climate Change Means For Future Sporting Events

The world’s fourth-richest person has a plan to save the planet from catastrophic climate change — and it&#8217;s cheaper than you think.



Bill Gates wants you to know two numbers: 51 billion and zero. The former is the number of tons of greenhouse gases typically added to the atmosphere each year as a result of human activities. The latter is the number of tons we need to get to by 2050 in order to avert a climate crisis.



Gates has a plan for how to go from 51 billion to zero, and he’s happy to say it doesn’t come with a price tag in the trillions of dollars. As you might expect from a guy who made his fortune in technology, the billionaire’s suggested solution is tied in large part to innovation.&nbsp;



He spells out his plan in a new book,&nbsp;How To Avoid A Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have And The Breakthroughs We Need,&nbsp;to be released on February 16. Ahead of the book launch, Gates talked to&nbsp;Forbes&nbsp;about why he wrote the book. He also shared details the book doesn’t get into, including how much he’s invested in zero-carbon companies, which ones he’s most excited about, including a new kind of nuclear power plant, and what he’s likely to invest in next.



Goal number one of the book, says Gates, is to clearly lay out which sectors of the economy are producing the 51 billion tons of greenhouse gases the world typically adds to the atmosphere each year. “The actual numeric framework, which is the most basic thing for any problem you want to tackle&#8230;that’s really been missing,” Gates says in a video interview from a conference room in his offices in Seattle. (See table for the percentage breakdown.)  The goal we as a planet need to aim for: zero emissions by 2050. Gates is optimistic that as hard as it sounds, we can get there.   



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>



<h2 class="has-text-align-center wp-block-heading" id="h-how-it-adds-up-globally-51-billion-tons">How It Adds Up Globally: 51 Billion Tons  </h2>



Emissions dropped about 5% in 2020 due to the pandemic, Gates estimates. But in a normal year the world adds 51 billion tons of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, Gates writes in his book.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-style-default"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="594" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Screenshot-2021-02-18-at-11.05.34-1024x594.png" alt="" class="wp-image-50037" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Screenshot-2021-02-18-at-11.05.34-1024x594.png 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Screenshot-2021-02-18-at-11.05.34-300x174.png 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Screenshot-2021-02-18-at-11.05.34-768x446.png 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Screenshot-2021-02-18-at-11.05.34-1536x892.png 1536w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Screenshot-2021-02-18-at-11.05.34-600x348.png 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Screenshot-2021-02-18-at-11.05.34.png 1602w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Photo by Forbes </figcaption></figure>



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>



Gates admits, both in his book and when we spoke, that he is an imperfect messenger on climate change. “The very idea that one person is saying they know what we should do —appropriately, there is some pushback,” he says. In his book, he writes, “The world is not exactly lacking in rich men with big ideas about what other people should do, or who think technology can fix any problem.” He admits to owning big houses and flying in private jets, though he tells me that he buys carbon offsets for $400 a ton for the private jet flights he takes. “I can’t deny being a rich guy with an opinion. I do believe, though, that it is an informed opinion, and I am always trying to learn more,” he writes.&nbsp;



Gates presciently warned in a 2015 talk about the dangers of a global pandemic and what we’d need to do to prepare for it. Similarly, this is not his first public prescription for the climate. In 2010 he gave a<a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_innovating_to_zero?language=en" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&nbsp;TED talk</a>&nbsp;calling for the need to eliminate carbon emissions by 2050. He’s continued to consult experts in the field and delve into the latest in climate science and policy. In 2015 he got involved in the Paris Climate Summit, calling France’s then president, Francois Hollande, and encouraging him to get countries to agree to raise their R&amp;D budgets for clean tech innovation. Twenty countries signed on. Says Gates, “Although we did not see all those countries double their R&amp;D budgets, we did see some increase. That’s sort of when the field started to focus on can we get this innovation to take place.”



To help put a framework around progress and the cost of new carbon-free innovations, Gates and his team came up with a term called “Green Premium” and introduced it in his blog,<a href="https://www.gatesnotes.com/Energy/Introducing-the-Green-Premiums" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&nbsp;Gates Notes</a>, in September last year. As he explains it, the Green Premium spells out the difference in cost between a product or process that doesn’t emit carbon with one that does. Green Premiums have fallen in the passenger car sector to the point where more people are buying electric cars (though Gates points out that just 2% of global auto sales are electric vehicles). In the industrial sector, however, Green Premiums are much higher. Says Gates, “The hardest problems to solve are in areas like steel and concrete and even transportation things like aviation fuel.” The problems he’s referring to: coming up with processes to make these products that don’t emit greenhouse gases. The research is in its early stages, and that’s where government R&amp;D can play a role, Gates suggests.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What’s It All Going To Cost?&nbsp;</h3>



In December, Gates suggested<a href="https://www.gatesnotes.com/Energy/How-the-US-can-lead-on-climate-change-innovation" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&nbsp;in his blog</a>&nbsp;that the U.S. create a National Institutes of Energy Innovation to help the country take the lead in climate change innovation. The idea is to model it after the National Institutes of Health, the backbone of U.S. medical research, which has an annual budget of about $37 billion. Gates says current U.S. government R&amp;D spending on energy innovation is about $7 billion annually; that would need to be quintupled to match government spending on the NIH.



Another suggestion from Gates: shift the tax credits now available for solar and wind to more nascent areas like offshore wind, energy storage and new types of steel. “If you do that, and maybe double or triple the amount you spend on those tax benefits, then I do think that will be just a monumental contribution from the Biden administration,” he explains.



Whatever tech innovation comes out of the U.S. or elsewhere has to be affordable enough for countries like India to adopt it, Gates points out. Right now, the U.S. accounts for 14% of the world’s emissions. If just the U.S. gets to zero carbon emissions, we won’t be solving the problem globally.&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Where Gates Is Investing</h3>



Gates, whose<a href="https://www.forbes.com/profile/bill-gates/?sh=68241add689f">&nbsp;$124 billion fortune</a>&nbsp;stems from an estimated 1% stake in Microsoft and a variety of other investments, says in the book he’s put “more than $1 billion” into companies working toward zero emissions. How much more? Altogether, he tells&nbsp;Forbes&nbsp;it’s about $2 billion. He describes himself as perhaps the biggest funder of direct air capture technologies—methods to capture carbon from the air. Two of the more well-known companies he’s been an investor in are producing plant-based meats:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/chloesorvino/2020/07/30/impossible-foods-joins-beyond-on-the-shelves-of-walmart-americas-no-1-meat-seller/?sh=3d7caaf52685">Impossible Foods</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/chloesorvino/2020/11/16/green-and-lean-beyond-meat-announces-two-new-better-for-you-plant-based-burgers/?sh=49333f12299f">Beyond Meat</a>. Some of his investing he categorizes as philanthropic, like the money he’s put toward an open source climate model that aims to show how electricity generation will work in long periods of tough weather when wind and solar would be shut down.&nbsp;



His biggest bet has been on TerraPower, a nuclear power company with a reactor that uses depleted uranium as its fuel. Gates founded the company with a few others more than a decade ago. In 2017, TerraPower formed a joint venture with a Chinese company and was planning to produce its first reactor in China. That deal was scuttled by the U.S. government, which in late 2019 blocked U.S. cooperation with China on civilian nuclear power. Now the plan is to build a demonstration plant somewhere in the U.S. In October the U.S. Department of Energy awarded<a href="https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/us-department-energy-announces-160-million-first-awards-under-advanced-reactor" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&nbsp;$80 million</a>&nbsp;to TerraPower toward construction of the plant; the agreement is that half of the funding will come from the private sector. Gates says, “That’s coming largely from me.”



His hope is that the demonstration plant will be built within five to seven years. “If things go well, that means that maybe in 10 years, commercial plant builders would take that design and build it ideally in the hundreds—which is what you need to have an impact on climate change.”&nbsp;



Gates has also invested in zero-carbon companies through Breakthrough Energy Ventures, a group he assembled that&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2016/12/12/bill-gates-launches-1-billion-breakthrough-energy-investment-fund/?sh=41728d6a5b7d">launched in December 2016</a>. “It was a lot easier to raise the money than I expected,” he says. “I made about 22 calls and got about 20 yeses for the first billion.” Investors include billionaires such as&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/profile/jeff-bezos/?sh=548de8471b23">Jeff Bezos</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/profile/vinod-khosla/?sh=26fd668a3e07">Vinod Khosla</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/profile/john-arnold/?sh=49c99d011001">John Arnold</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/profile/john-doerr/?sh=53bd068026c5">John Doerr</a>; Gates says he’s the largest investor. So far Breakthrough Energy Ventures has invested in 40 companies; One, QuantumScape, which is developing lithium metal batteries for electric vehicles and has no revenues yet, went public through a SPAC last November. Though many of the companies are still early stage, Gates describes some as “really wild,” including QuidNet, which is working to store electricity by pumping water into pressured underground wells; when energy is needed, the water is released and goes through a turbine, creating electricity.&nbsp;



Breakthrough Energy Ventures raised another $1 billion fund in January, with most of the same initial investors and some newcomers. (Gates didn’t disclose names.) He says he’s the largest investor in the latest fund, too. The new fund will look to invest in more of the industrial processes like low-carbon cement and steel production as well as technologies to capture carbon from the air, Gates says.



Over the next five years, Gates says “I’ll put in at least $2 billion” toward zero-carbon technologies. But while a total of $4 billion is a lot of money, for someone worth more than $120 billion, it’s a small sliver of his overall investments. Says Gates, “It’s more limited by what is out there that can have a high impact.”



One of Gates’ other investments that’s been in the news recently seems to fly in the face of his zero-carbon focus. In early February, Gates’ investment arm, Cascade, partnered with Blackstone Group and private equity firm Global Infrastructure Partners in a $4.7 billion deal to buy Signature Aviation, the world’s largest operator of private jet bases. Private jet travel has been booming during the pandemic, but such travel emits a heck of a lot of greenhouse gases. How does he square the deal with the premise of his book? A spokesperson for Gates did not reply to the question.



Will Gates’ book influence policy makers and move the needle toward innovation in zero-carbon technologies? It helps that combating climate change is already one of the Biden administration’s top four priorities. Given that the book is addressing weighty material, it’s relatively easy to read, sprinkled with Gates’ personal observations&nbsp; and even a photo of him with his son Rory on a visit to a geothermal power plant in Iceland. (Gates says he and Rory liked to visit power plants for fun.) He mentions that he drives an electric car&nbsp;—&nbsp;the Porsche Taycan Turbo, which he describes to&nbsp;Forbes&nbsp;as “ridiculously nice and ridiculously expensive” — that sells for $150,000 or more. (He’s such a fan that he got one of the first demo models, he adds.)



If nothing else, Gates wants to get people talking. “My hope is that we can shift the conversation by sharing the facts with the people in our lives— our family members, friends, and leaders.&nbsp;And not just the facts that tell us why we need to act, but also those that show us the actions that will do the most good,” he writes.&nbsp;



A bigger measure of his success will be whether the Biden administration adopts any of his policy proposals. Says Gates, “I do think that with those increases [in spending], we’ll be doing exactly what we need to do, not just for us, but for the entire world.”



By Kerry A. Dolan, Forbes Staff

2019 New York Times Dealbook

How To Solve Climate Change: Bill Gates Wants You To Know Two Numbers

Fashion is about creating beauty, but its ugly side is the carbon emissions. Designers are now looking to play it safe, even if it means going to dangerous lengths for the sake of greener fashion.



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>



In South Africa, the fashion industry is now starting to do
its bit to negate the effects of climate change, with some designers going
green, in interesting, creative and even lucrative ways. 



Ayanda Nhlapo, a stylist and entrepreneur, is one of them. 



She hosted and co-produced her own TV fashion show, Ayanda’s
Fashion House, where she explored the work of some of South Africa’s most
prolific designers and creatives in the fashion industry. The fashion aesthete
says the influence of the industry is far-reaching, and therefore, must be more
responsible about the environment and preservation of resources. 



READ MORE: <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/economy/2018/12/19/no-christmas-cheer-for-fashion-firms-in-never-ending-sales/">No Christmas cheer for fashion firms in never-ending sales</a>



“I’ve always had a knack for creating, whether I’m creating
from scratch or recreating something that already exists,” says Nhlapo. So,
upcycling, or repurposing, is what she is into. 



“However, recreating or upcycling has always given me much
more excitement and a deeper sense of purpose. 



“Upcycling can be challenging but rewarding in the sense that it’s not just about the creativity but it’s more so about contributing to solving the effects of fast fashion on the environment and the economy. It is very important that we preserve our culture, identity and resources,” she says. 



READ MORE: <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/woman/2018/12/28/in-pictures-the-business-of-african-fashion-nigeria-takes-a-slice-of-the-pie/">IN PICTURES| The Business Of African Fashion: Nigeria Takes A Slice Of The Pie</a>



Fascinated about culture as well as traditional wear, some of her design ideas are fairly unconventional, such as Zulu sandals made of tyres. Besides clothes, she also designs accessories, such as earrings and key-holders. One of her designs is earrings shaped like water droplets to highlight the importance of saving water, whilst also bringing forth the beauty and importance of recycling and upcycling.



Her market is largely young women, but the brand is also for
those who love and consume fashion consciously. Nhlapo uses fashion as a tool
to influence people and encourage them to think carefully about how they use it.




“Fortunately, through traditional media and social media, I
am able to reach thousands and thousands of people, not just in South Africa
but across the world. If we consume fashion correctly and consciously, we have
the power to reverse certain cycles and change the direction of our future,”
says Nhlapo.



&nbsp;She goes on to say
that the fashion industry is among the highest polluters&nbsp; in the world, however, thankfully, it is
gradually moving towards a more responsible way of operating. 



“In fact, green fashion is the next big thing. Designers and consumers are finally becoming more and more aware of the damages and negative, rippling effects of fashion and are now beginning to take such issues seriously. We are starting to see more sustainable fabrics on the runway and more eco-friendly brands launching into the market, while well-established brands are also moving in the direction of going green. Before we know it, green fashion will be the only thing we know.”



READ MORE: <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/7-questions-with/2018/08/03/fashion-fame-and-finances-with-sa-designer-david-tlale/">Fashion, Fame and Finances With SA Designer, David Tlale</a>



South African designer JJ Schoeman elaborates on ‘fast
fashion’ and ‘green fashion’.



“I think we need to still go on a robust campaign on the
implications of fast fashion, where we create more awareness around its
consumption, as I feel that most consumers are still a little blasé about their
purchase.



“There was a call for green fashion, because of the wasteful
nature of production lines within our industry. This call was made to encourage
designers like myself to use environmentally-friendly fabrics and methods in
the production line.”



One of the ways he implements this in his production line is
to cut material in a way there is less wastage. 



“Over and above this, I also found ways in which to ‘get rid’ of the waste we accumulated over a season – these included donating to the trade, for reuse. I also try my absolute best to use fabrics that are more environment-friendly, but of course, I always need to take into consideration what the client wants.”



Schoeman opines the green fashion trend is growing.



“Absolutely, if we just take into consideration the amount
of international names that have agreed to not using real fur in their
collections. Recently, I read about the #G7Biarritz movement, which saw the
Prada Group, Ralph Lauren and 30 other fashion industry brands sign the pact.
The Fashion Pact is going to change the game in sustainable fashion all over
the world.”



Yet another trend is ‘thrifting fashion’ that has become the cornerstone of shopping trends popular among the youth. 



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/thrift-326-1024x683.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-42170" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/thrift-326-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/thrift-326-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/thrift-326-600x400.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/thrift-326-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/thrift-326.jpg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



Vathiswa Yiba is an employee at a vintage thrift store in
the lively Braamfontein area of Johannesburg. She has immersed herself in the
culture of thrifting. 



The store is one of several thrift stores in the city, and
among the popular ones at the thrift market not far from Africa’s largest
railway station, the Johannesburg Park Station. 



“Thrifting is buying clothes that people think are not good enough anymore and those that they have discarded,” says 22-year-old Yiba.



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"> “It’s interesting with thrifting because the most dangerous places are where you find the nicer things&#8221;<cite>&#8211; Vathiswa Yiba</cite></blockquote>







The lower prices also offer financial reprieve and more options for the buyer. 



Yiba has been thrifting since her high school days when she
started with her own clothes.&nbsp; 



“I don’t step into retail stores unless I am buying shoes,” she says.



“My first thrift was buying from people who sold from their
bags, then from their car boots, then I leveled up and started going to the
biggest market in the&nbsp; Johannesburg
Central Business District; MTN Taxi Rank, known for its pavement crimes,
despite the danger in that part of town, they have the best clothes.” 



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/recycled-fashion-145-1024x683.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-42173" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/recycled-fashion-145-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/recycled-fashion-145-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/recycled-fashion-145-600x400.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/recycled-fashion-145-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/recycled-fashion-145.jpg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



The street-savvy Yiba offers advice to those who are novices
in the industry.&nbsp; 



“It’s interesting with thrifting because the most dangerous
places are where you find the nicer things, and here is a tip when you are
going thrifting – make sure you have loose change and put it in safe pockets,
away from pick-pocketers. That way you will be able to shop safely. However,
you can find good-looking items but it’s not in your size; which is where the
community comes in. 



“We have tailors to alter the garments for you and it will
be exclusive because it’s thrifted, no one has the same clothes. There is so
much more you can do with discarded clothes. With the littlest things, you can
make an amazing thing and you’ll be the only one who has it.”



Of course, there is a tinge of stigma associated with
thrifting. Yiba says people think the clothes could also have belonged to those
who have passed away, but she’s of the view that thrifting creates other
opportunities. 



“The [thrift clothing] may look messy and seem dusty, but once cleaned or altered, they will look retail. So it’s not just the connotations, it can be something perfect and the next person wouldn’t even know.” 



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/recycled-fashion-132-1024x683.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-42175" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/recycled-fashion-132-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/recycled-fashion-132-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/recycled-fashion-132-600x400.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/recycled-fashion-132-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/recycled-fashion-132.jpg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



These are sentiments also echoed by Leago Nhlapo, a content
creator for fashion brands like Adidas, Sportscene and Skechers, who began his
journey as thrifter. 



“It started with thrifting because it makes you unique;
there is no similar garment, every single garment is different from the next.
So, I jumped from really cheap clothes [recycled clothes] to really expensive
clothes,” he says.



However, Leago encourages green fashion because he says the
fast fashion industry is the second-highest contributor to carbon
emissions.&nbsp; 



“The more people buy clothes, the more we contribute to
global warming and we all know the global crisis, so if we recycle clothes,
there will not be a need to make clothes, there are enough clothes for everyone
existing. I am proof that second-hand clothes are cool and look better than
people paying tons of cash.” 



Seventy kilometers south of Johannesburg’s Central Business
District is Nokwakha Qobo, who was born in the squatter camps of Phuma
Zibethane in Sharpeville. And in the garbage dumps of these camps, the fashion
designer in her emerged.



Qobo currently has a clothing line with an international reach. She fashions garments out of wastepaper she collects from rubbish dumps. 



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"> &#8220;I’m a self-taught designer from a dump in Vanderbijlpark, that’s where I learned everything <cite> &#8211; Nokwakha Qobo </cite></blockquote>







As a young girl, Qobo had to walk to school, and through the course of her journey home, she would pass a garbage site where old fashion magazines and newspapers were discarded. 



It is often said that ‘one man’s trash is another man’s
treasure’. This adage was not lost on her because she took inspiration from the
articles in those magazines and now creates pieces that are sought after.



“That’s where I learned about fashion trends, that’s where I
learned about different colors for different seasons, that’s where I learned
about the body structure of a woman, actually, I’m a self-taught designer from
a dump in Vanderbijlpark, that’s where I learned everything,” she says.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="681" height="1024" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Nokwakha-093-681x1024.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-42174" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Nokwakha-093-681x1024.jpg 681w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Nokwakha-093-300x451.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Nokwakha-093-600x902.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Nokwakha-093-200x300.jpg 200w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Nokwakha-093-768x1155.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Nokwakha-093.jpg 1277w" sizes="(max-width: 681px) 100vw, 681px" /></figure>



Inadvertently, she too is contributing towards a shift in
culture based on conscious consumption. 



Perhaps, with the benefit of time, green fashion will be the norm as many believe we already have all we need.



&#8211; Motlabana Monnakgotla

Nokwakha 022

Conscious Fashion: ‘So Much More You Can Do With Discarded Clothes’

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"> How much climate change is natural? How much is man made?</blockquote>



As someone who has been working on climate change detection and its causes for over 20 years I was both surprised and not surprised that I was asked to write on this topic by&nbsp;The Conversation. For&nbsp;nearly all&nbsp;climate scientists, the case is proven that humans are the overwhelming cause of the long-term changes in the climate that we are observing. And that this case should be closed.



Despite this, climate denialists continue to receive&nbsp;prominence&nbsp;in some media which can lead people into thinking that man-made climate change is still in question. So it’s worth going back over the science to remind ourselves just how much has already been established.



Successive reports by the&nbsp;Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change&nbsp;– mandated by the United Nations to assess scientific evidence on climate change – have evaluated the causes of climate change. The most recent&nbsp;special report on global warming of 1.5 degrees&nbsp;confirms that the observed changes in global and regional climate over the last 50 or so years are almost entirely due to human influence on the climate system and not due to natural causes.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What is climate change?</h2>



First we should perhaps ask what we mean by climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change&nbsp;defines climate change as:



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer.</blockquote>



The causes of climate change can be any combination of:



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Internal variability in the climate system,&nbsp;when various&nbsp;components of the climate system – like the atmosphere and ocean – vary on their own to cause fluctuations in climatic conditions, such as temperature or rainfall. These internally-driven changes generally happen over decades or longer; shorter variations such as those related to El Niño fall in the bracket of climate variability, not climate change.</li><li>Natural external causes such as increases or decreases in volcanic activity or solar radiation. For example, every 11 years or so, the Sun’s magnetic field&nbsp;completely flips&nbsp;and this can cause small fluctuations in global temperature, up to about 0.2 degrees. On longer time scales – tens to hundreds of millions of years – geological processes can drive changes in the climate, due to shifting continents and mountain building.</li><li>Human influence through greenhouse gases (gases that trap heat in the atmosphere such as carbon dioxide and methane), other particles released into the air (which absorb or reflect sunlight such as soot and aerosols) and land-use change (which affects how much sunlight is absorbed on land surfaces and also how much carbon dioxide and methane is absorbed and released by vegetation and soils).</li></ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What changes have been detected?</h2>



The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s&nbsp;recent report&nbsp;showed that, on average, the global surface air temperature has risen by 1°C since the beginning of significant industrialisation (which roughly started in the 1850s). And it is increasing at ever faster rates, currently 0.2°C per decade, because the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have themselves been increasing ever faster.



The oceans are warming as well. In fact,&nbsp;about&nbsp;90% of the extra heat trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases is being absorbed by the oceans.



A warmer atmosphere and oceans are causing dramatic changes, including&nbsp;steep decreases in Arctic summer sea ice&nbsp;which is profoundly impacting arctic marine ecosystems, increasing sea level rise which is inundating low lying coastal areas such as Pacific island atolls, and an&nbsp;increasing frequency of many climate extremes&nbsp;such as drought and heavy rain, as well as disasters where climate is an important driver, such as wildfire, flooding and landslides.



Multiple&nbsp;lines of evidence, using different methods, show that&nbsp;human influence is the only plausible explanation&nbsp;for the patterns and magnitude of changes that have been detected.



This human influence is largely due to our activities that release greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, as well sunlight absorbing soot. The&nbsp;main sources of these warming gases and particles&nbsp;are fossil fuel burning, cement production, land cover change (especially deforestation) and agriculture.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Weather attribution</h2>



Most of us will struggle to pick up slow changes in the climate. We feel climate change largely through how it affects weather from day-to-day, season-to-season and year-to-year.



The weather we experience arises from dynamic processes in the atmosphere, and interactions between the atmosphere, the oceans and the land surface. Human influence on the broader climate system acts on these processes so that the weather today is different in many ways from how it would have been.



One way we can more clearly see climate change is by looking at severe weather events. A branch of climate science, called extreme event or weather attribution, looks at memorable weather events and estimates the extent of human influence on the severity of these events. It&nbsp;uses weather models&nbsp;run with and without measured greenhouse gases to estimate how individual weather events would have been different in a world without climate change.



As of early 2019, nearly 70% of weather events that have been assessed in this way were shown to have had their likelihood and/or magnitude increased by human influence on climate. In a world without global warming, these events would have been less severe. Some 10% of the studies showed a reduction in likelihood, while for the remaining 20% global warming has not had a discernible effect. For example,&nbsp;one study showed&nbsp;that human influence on climate had increased the likelihood of the 2015-2018 drought that afflicted Cape Town in South Africa by a factor of three.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Adapting to a changing climate</h2>



Weather extremes underlie many of the hazards that damage society and the natural environment we depend upon. As global warming has progressed, so have the frequency and intensity of these hazards, and the damage they cause.



Minimising the impacts of these hazards, and having mechanisms in place to recover quickly from the impacts, is the aim of climate adaptation, as&nbsp;recently reported by the Global Commission on Adaptation.



As the Commission explains, investing in adaptation makes sense from economic, social and ethical perspectives. And as we know that climate change is caused by humans, society cannot use “lack of evidence” on its cause as an excuse for inaction any more.

gettyimages-158765371-170667a

Climate Explained: How Much Of Climate Change Is Natural? How Much Is Man-made?

With every day that passes by it becomes more apparent that the Earth is deteriorating and time is running out to save it. Scientists have estimated that we have less than a decade to save the planet before it is irreversibly damaged, mainly due to climate change. 



Businesses claim the largest percentage of global emissions (at approximately 70% since 1988, according to The Guardian) which is an alarming statistic, especially in a time when the planet’s well-being is being compromised. 



Many large business corporations are hastily coming on board with operating sustainably by transforming their practices and placing business ethics at the forefront of their priorities.



READ MORE | <a rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="The Most Sustainable Companies In 2019 (opens in a new tab)" href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/technology/2019/01/23/the-most-sustainable-companies-in-2019/" target="_blank">The Most Sustainable Companies In 2019</a>



 Last week, a round table discussion was held at the Fairlawns Boutique Hotel, Sandton hosted by Environmental Resources Management (ERM) &#8211; the world’s largest sustainability consulting firm. Their aim was to discuss how imperative it is for African businesses to get on board with sustainability. 



“We have been talking about how to be
sustainable for a long time but now it is time for us to do sustainability,”
says Thapelo Letete, Technical Director of ERM. 



An engaging and thought-provoking panel
discussion ensued with representatives from ERM and mining companies, Anglo
American and Gold Fields. They emphasized the importance of sustainability
being recognized by investors, especially in mining and oil companies that rely
solely on Earth’s natural resources.



Civil society has a colossal role to play in ensuring the sustainability of businesses. Due to the law of supply and demand in production, consumers are being urged to be mindful of their buying habits and to make sustainable decisions. These are as simple as minimizing the utilization of plastic straws by replacing them with metal or paper straws and reusable shopping bags and by recycling selected items. 



READ MORE | <a rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Challenging The Gender Divide (opens in a new tab)" href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/opinion/2019/09/04/challenging-the-gender-divide/" target="_blank">Challenging The Gender Divide</a>



“Research
suggests that socially and environmentally responsible practices have the
potential to garner more positive consumer perceptions of (businesses), as well
as increases in profitability,” according to an entry in Sage Journals published in May. 



The advancement of science, artificial intelligence and the rapid growth of the technological industry make it an undeniable fact that the Fourth Industrial Revolution is underway. Many businesses across the globe seem to be well prepared for this change. However, businesses in Africa seem to be vulnerable.&nbsp;



“It is difficult to say that all
businesses in Africa are prepared for it. It is not a country specific thing
but it does vary across corporations. There will be businesses that are well prepared
and businesses that are not so well prepared,” says Keryn James, CEO of ERM. 



A large part of
sustainability also relies on empowerment and equality. Sub-Saharan Africa has
the highest number of female-owned businesses who contribute a large amount of
money towards their respective countries’ GDPs. However, most of these
businesses struggle with the issue of scaling. 



“Women sometimes underestimate their ability and they don’t necessarily&nbsp; have the confidence that they should have about the value that their businesses present. Women often take less risks than men,” says James.



“The issue of scaling is one that we see globally. One of the issues are access to funding to support in the investment and growth of their businesses.”



READ MORE | <a rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Mastercard: Diligent About Digital In Africa (opens in a new tab)" href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/cover-story/2019/09/02/mastercard-diligent-about-digital-in-africa/" target="_blank">Mastercard: Diligent About Digital In Africa</a>



Going forward, the availability of mentorship programmes and skills development opportunities for women, especially black women in business should be encouraged. 



According to a study done by the UN Women’s organization, an average of 3 out of 7 women score higher in performance when they are placed in senior managerial positions. Additionally, if more women work, the more countries can exponentially maximise their economic growth. 



Women will be empowered
when given the correct skills and opportunities to be able to run their own
businesses independently which would ultimately lead to the scaling of
female-owned businesses in Africa and sustainable development. 



The Nedbank Capital Sustainable Business Awards aim
to recognize the efforts of businesses that operate sustainably and to encourage
other corporations who intend to adopt more sustainable strategies into their
practices. Initiatives such as these prove that business value also depends on
how sustainable they are. 



It is clear that the prioritization of sustainability and accountability in businesses is the only way forward in the midst of this global crisis. With a combination of will and the rigorous work that African businesses have put into sustainability initiatives and strategies, it is easier to be optimistic about our planet’s wellbeing. 



-Buhle Ntusi

Keryn

Businesses At The Heart Of A Greener Future

Climate change is going to have huge consequences all over the world,&nbsp;especially in Africa. Harvests will be affected, threatening agricultural outputs. This could hurt farmers and lead to greater food insecurity.



But there hasn’t been much discussion about what effects climate change will have in other areas – like in the continent’s small and medium business sector. This is a worrying oversight.



Our&nbsp;research, conducted in Zambia and Botswana, revealed that businesses activities faced major disruptions during the 2015/2016 El Niño event. This was a result of drought-related water supply disruption in Botswana’s capital Gaborone, and disruption to hydroelectricity supplies in Zambia’s capital Lusaka.



El Niño&nbsp;is one of the key drivers of variations in global climate conditions between different years. It recurs every two to seven years and it’s typically associated with reduced rainfall and drought conditions in southern Africa.



Reflecting this trend, the 2015/2016 El Niño was one of the&nbsp;strongest on record. It brought widespread drought conditions and heat waves to the region.



By impacting urban water and hydroelectricity supplies, this had major consequences for business activities in Gaborone and Lusaka, as our research shows. These cities’ experiences should serve as a warning for others across the continent, and systems should be put in place to protect particularly small businesses from the worst realities of a changing climate.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Under pressure</h4>



In Botswana, as lake levels in the Gaborone Dam dropped to&nbsp;historical lows, businesses in Gaborone experienced decreased water pressure. In some cases businesses were completely cut off from piped water supply.



Lack of water for food preparation, butchery, irrigation, laundry, cleaning and sanitation had dire consequences for businesses such as hotels and guesthouses, restaurants, food businesses and other service industries. Hairdressers and car washing enterprises, for instance, came to a standstill as they struggled to provide services to customers or to maintain hygiene standards.



In Zambia’s capital Lusaka, where hydropower accounts for&nbsp;94%&nbsp;of the country’s electricity generation capacity, low lake levels in Lake Kariba contributed to unprecedented electricity blackouts, often lasting for eight hours at a time.



In Lusaka, activities reliant on electricity such as manufacturing, processing and communications were interrupted as equipment was immobilised. Assets were lost because they couldn’t be reliably heated or refrigerated. In both cities, supply chains were disrupted.



<figure><iframe loading="lazy" width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Nu5pjijFFa4?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe><figcaption>A video explaining the authors’ findings.</figcaption></figure>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Infrastructure issues</h4>



Towards the end of 2016, as El Niño drew to a close, more than half of the 135 micro, small and medium enterprises we surveyed in Gaborone and Lusaka told us their profits would be lower than previous years. Almost a third believed that their business was at risk of closing down. Business owners said disruptions to water supply and power outages, in Gaborone and Lusaka respectively, were the greatest obstacles to them doing business.



The two cities’ experiences, alongside the widely reported “Day Zero” water situation in Cape Town, South Africa, should sound a warning for businesses elsewhere on the continent. Water shortages in Cape Town began during the El Niño, but extended into 2018 as drought conditions persisted.



Climate change events like droughts are only going to get worse – and urban centres where many small, medium and micro enterprises thrive will be in the eye of the storm. The 2015/2016 El Niño highlighted that even fairly moderate changes in rainfall can have major consequences for businesses in African cities.



More people are moving to cities, setting up businesses and connecting, often for the first time, to water and electricity grids. This increases demand and places pressure on existing water and energy infrastructure.



At the same time, a complex set of factors has limited the development of new infrastructure and the effective management of existing resources. This means cities are struggling to keep up with the increased demand.



These factors, which include under-investment in infrastructure, policy uncertainty, governance challenges and poor municipal service provision, exacerbated the effect of drought in Botswana, Zambia and South Africa.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Preparing for a new reality</h4>



So what can be done to address these realities?



First, action is needed across sub-Saharan Africa to increase understanding of the vulnerabilities in existing water, energy and urban infrastructure – alongside the effects of increasing urbanisation and a changing climate.



And, second, small and medium sized businesses, which are&nbsp;key drivers of economic growth across sub-Saharan Africa&nbsp;and provide many people with a livelihood, need more support from governments and policy makers to help them cope with disruption.



This should include better access to information about the timing and severity of anticipated disruption to water and electricity supplies, as well as support to invest in coping strategies such as alternative sources of energy.



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kate-elizabeth-gannon-601360">Kate Elizabeth Gannon:</a>&nbsp;Postdoctoral researcher, London School of Economics and Political Science</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/declan-conway-434384">Declan Conway:</a>&nbsp;Professorial Research Fellow, London School of Economics and Political Science</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Patrick Curran, a policy analyst at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, also contributed to this article.</li></ul>

RC198DAA9370

Small Businesses In Africa Will Be On The Frontline Of Climate Change

Last year unleashed some catastrophic weather across the world. At the beginning of 2017, Australia experienced one of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-39175668" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hottest summers on record</a> in Sydney and Brisbane, followed by a killer <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/04/extreme-heat-warnings-issued-europe-temperatures-pass-40c" target="_blank" rel="noopener">summer heatwave</a> across southern Europe and <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/11/us/california-wildfires/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wildfires</a> triggered by heat in California.
The Atlantic hurricane season was particularly active, recording three mighty category 5 hurricanes – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/13/global-warming-made-hurricane-harvey-deadly-rains-three-times-more-likely-research-shows" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Harvey</a>, <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/specials/hurricane-irma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Irma</a> and <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/specials/weather/hurricane-maria" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Maria</a> – resulting in significant casualties. The cost of the damage across the American continent was in excess of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-42608161" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$260 billion</a>.
At the same time, the 2017 monsoon season brought considerable rains to the Indian subcontinent, and resulted in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/30/mumbai-paralysed-by-floods-as-india-and-region-hit-by-worst-monsoon-rains-in-years" target="_blank" rel="noopener">devastating floods</a> in parts of India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh (one of the most flood vulnerable countries in the world), causing more than 1,000 deaths.
At the end of 2017, we could look back at the statistics and see that globally it was the warmest <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/what-is-el-nino-la-nina" target="_blank" rel="noopener">non-El Nino</a> year on record. El-Nino is the warming part of the <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/what-is-el-nino-la-nina" target="_blank" rel="noopener">El-Nino Southern Oscillation</a> (ENSO) cycle which affects global ocean and atmospheric currents and can create powerful storms and hurricanes.
In a world that is getting warmer, what does that mean and what might 2018 hold for weather across the globe? Are we destined to see more and more of these “unusual” and catastrophic weather events which result in significant devastation? What effect will climate change have on our weather and will this become the new norm?
<h2>Looking at the facts</h2>
First, we need to untangle the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa-n/climate/climate_weather.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">difference</a> between weather and climate change, something president Trump seems <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/28/politics/trump-climate-change-analysis/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">to confuse</a>. In a nutshell, the difference is time. Weather is the conditions in the atmosphere over a short period of time. Climate is how the atmosphere behaves over a longer period of time. When we talk about climate change, that generally means changes in long-term averages of daily levels of temperature and rainfall. So we may see a change in average or typical weather over a number of years, but we can still experience extremes in any one year.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/woman/2017/10/03/professor-saved-african-rainforest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: The Professor Who Saved An African Rainforest</a>
Recently, scientists have used <a href="https://www.munichre.com/topics-online/en/2017/topics-geo/rapid-attribution" target="_blank" rel="noopener">robust event attribution</a> where natural or human influences on particular events are studied to understand the role <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/5-8/features/nasa-knows/what-is-climate-change-58.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a> may play in particular weather events. This can help support future regional contingency planning.
This also helps us to understand the role climate change has played in past events such as heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, or extreme flooding and some of their large-scale drivers such as ocean and atmospheric patterns of warming and cooling, like El-Nino.
Looking at the past there are many factors which control the onset, spread and eventual impact of a big weather event. But not all of these factors are climatic and many relate to things such as urbanisation, engineering interventions or land-use changes.
<h2>What the future looks like</h2>
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IPCC</a>), an international body set up to assess the science of climate change, we can continue to expect <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">an increase</a> in the average global temperature. That means we will be experiencing warmer years in the future.
But at the same time, we may see changes to the extremes, which could become more frequent in the case of high temperature or heavy rainfall, or less frequent in the case of extreme cold. This means that the distribution, occurrence and expected averages of our weather (for example, temperature and rain) throughout the year may change, resulting in warmer years on average with more extreme hot days, and fewer extreme cold days in the future.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2015/08/01/suspended-barbed-wire-impaled-car-part/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Suspended By Barbed Wire And Impaled On A Car Part During Flood</a>
This pattern has a direct link to such phenomena as heatwaves, which are caused by more extreme temperatures. The links to droughts or periods of extreme low flows in rivers are more complex. <a href="http://www.ipcc-data.org/guidelines/pages/gcm_guide.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Circulation Models</a> (GCMs) – a collection of numerical models that provide a 3D analysis of global climate interactions such as atmosphere, oceans, ice and land – <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14196?utm_source=Daily+Carbon+Briefing&amp;utm_campaign=fe1e50b881-cb_daily&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_876aab4fd7-fe1e50b881-303473869" target="_blank" rel="noopener">predict</a> increases in temperatures for some regions, such as southern Europe.
In terms of tropical cyclones, the effects of climate change on these phenomena is an active area of research as the processes are complex. For example, the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/Clausius-Clapeyron-equation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Clausius-Clapeyron</a> relationship which can be related to the water vapour-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, may have an impact on the strength and intensity of such storms.
The relationship states that for every degree rise in temperature, the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by 7%, so in a warming ocean, the air above the water has a much greater capacity to hold water and thus store more rain that can feed more powerful storms.
But sinking cold air from the upper atmosphere may prevent storms from rising in the first place. If this happens more frequently with climate change then we can expect fewer such storms. That means in the future there may be fewer tropical cyclones forming, but those that do will be stronger and more intense.
<h2>Wet, wet, wet</h2>
In a warming world, we can expect it to get wetter. The distribution of the rainfall throughout the year could change as we experience longer, drier spells, although when rain falls it may be in intense bursts. Recent <a href="https://research.ncl.ac.uk/media/sites/researchwebsites/convex/CONVEX_downpours.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">research</a> by Newcastle University analysed the results from finer scale GCMs climate projections and suggests we may expect more intense summer rainfall in the UK in future. <a href="http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/24125" target="_blank" rel="noopener">New climate projections</a> from GCMs are being prepared for the UK to help predict what the future climate may look like.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2017/04/01/africa-heating-not-good-way/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Africa Is Heating Up And Not In A Good Way</a>
Flooding from intense rainfall or river sources has many complex drivers which cause the damage in catchment areas. For example, land use changes (such as intensive farming practices or deforestation) and the degree of urbanisation both play a part in flood risk. Recent <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/2/103/htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">research</a> for the UK suggests that we will see an increase in the frequency of extreme river flooding.
So what can we expect for 2018? Already Australia is experiencing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/07/world/australia/heat-wave.html?_r=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">extreme heat</a>, while the eastern seaboard of the US is suffering a <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/1/3/16845048/winter-storm-2018-bomb-cyclone-blizzard-florida-new-york-boston-new-england" target="_blank" rel="noopener">severe cold spell</a>, and the west coast <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/11/us/southern-california-mudslides/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">devastating mudslides</a> that have killed 17 people. So far 2018 seems to be picking up right where 2017 left off.
Governments need to recognise and absorb that extreme weather across the globe is likely to become more common and start to adapt accordingly, rather than treat it as shocking one-off events. Otherwise we risk increasing loss of life and environmental damage in the future. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/lindsay-beevers-435129" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lindsay Beevers</a>, Professor/Chair Futures Forum, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/heriot-watt-university-947" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Heriot-Watt University</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Tag: Climate Change

FORBES AFRICA SOCIAL MEDIA