The country’s National and Provincial Elections marked a significant shift in the political landscape, this as the African National Congress (ANC) lost its parliamentary majority for the first time, along with the rapid rise of the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party, among others.



The 2024 elections in South Africa have been described by some as the most hotly-contested since the end of apartheid in 1994. The results have ushered in a new era of coalition politics, challenging the dominance of the African National Congress (ANC) and highlighting the rapid emergence of the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party.



For the first time in 30 years, the ANC has lost its parliamentary majority, securing only 40.18% of the National Assembly vote and the most of the 400 available seats. This represents a significant drop from its previous standing, necessitating coalition talks with parties such as Democratic Alliance (DA) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), to form a stable government.



The rise of the MK Party, led by former president Jacob Zuma, has been a remarkable development in South African politics.



Gustavo de Carvalho, a Senior Researcher on African governance and diplomacy at the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), explains to FORBES AFRICA that “the rise of the MK Party as the third-largest political party in South Africa is largely reflective of the internal conflicts and factional behaviors within the ANC over the past 15 years”.



“This development is significant as it creates a major split for the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and requires the party to rethink how to reach out to those bases,” he adds.



The MK Party secured 14.58% of the national vote and has become the largest party in KZN, although it fell short of an outright majority in the province. This shift underscores the fragmentation of the traditional ANC electorate.



The MK Party’s success has largely come at the expense of the ANC and EFF, both of which have seen a significant decline in support. There have been concerns about potential unrest in KZN, particularly due to Zuma’s comments challenging the election results and alleged vote rigging. The authorities are closely watching the situation to prevent any escalation of violence and to maintain peace as the political landscape continues to shift.



Voter turnout was another critical aspect of this election, with a participation rate of 58.64%, down from 66% in the previous elections.



“The lower turnout is due to several issues. Many still feel disenchanted with the options provided to them and are reluctant to vote for any party. This is a similar declining trend we have seen in South Africa for at least ten years,” De Carvalho notes.



The IEC (Independent Electoral Commission) reported handling 579 objections and 24 recounts, none of which were significant enough to alter the election outcome. Despite the objections and accusations of vote-rigging from some quarters, the IEC maintained that the elections were free and fair.



“The IEC’s handling of the election has been commendable despite minor glitches,” says de Carvalho.



“Their emphasis on accuracy and speed, even with the additional ballot, demonstrates their commitment to maintaining the integrity of the elections. This should positively impact public trust in the electoral process.”



The election has set the stage for a period of coalition governance, with significant challenges and opportunities ahead.



De Carvalho highlights the complexity of forming these coalitions, noting, “Parties will consider how these coalitions will impact their ideological stances, particularly identifying views of the ANC that may oppose their own. The DA and the IFP (Inkatha Freedom Party) seem to be more pragmatic than ideological in their approaches, while the MK has specific demands related to the Ramaphosa-Zuma battle.”



Coalition talks are currently underway, with the ANC engaging in discussions with both the EFF and DA.



The provincial results further underscore the shift in South Africa’s political landscape. In Gauteng, the ANC lost its majority, securing only 36.48% of the vote, followed by the DA with 26.63% and the EFF with 12.47%.



In KZN, the MK Party emerged as the largest party with 45.93% of the vote, followed by the ANC with 17.62% and the IFP with 16.28%.



“I grew up loving the ANC because of how they fought for the freedom we have today,” says Skhumbuzo Mnyandu, a business owner from KwaMashu.



“But this year, I have changed because of the problems with the ruling party, and so I have become a member of the MK Party.”



The Western Cape remains under the control of the DA, which secured 53.05% of the vote, while the ANC garnered 21.34%. The Northern Cape is also set for coalition politics, with the ANC losing its outright majority in the province.



President Cyril Ramaphosa, in his address at the IEC Election Results Announcement, called for unity and cooperation, stating, “The people of South Africa expect their leaders to work together to meet their needs. They expect the parties for which they have voted to find common ground, to overcome their differences, to act and work together for the good of everyone.”



The final seat allocations in the National Assembly reflect the new political reality: the ANC holds 159 seats, the DA 87, the MK Party 58, and the EFF 39. Other parties like the IFP, the Patriotic Alliance (PA), and the Freedom Front Plus (VF Plus) have also secured notable representation.



As South Africa navigates this new political landscape, the emphasis remains on working together for the good of the country. The 2024 elections have not only redefined the political dynamics, with the future of the country now hinging on the ability of its leaders to navigate these changes and build a government that truly reflects the will of the people.

ANC Fails To Win Majority For First Time Since 1994

South Africa: The Era Of Coalition Politics Begins

May 29 was anything but smooth sailing for the southern African nation as citizens exercised their right to vote, late into the night. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) is expected to attain below 50% for the first time since coming to power 30 years ago. As counting continues, FORBES AFRICA takes a look at the expectations and possible outcomes of the pivotal elections.



By the time ballots opened at 7AM on May 29, more than 900,000 South Africans had already cast special votes over the two previous days. There was hope that the rest – almost 27.8 million eligible voters – would follow suit.



Yet, despite months of planning, Election Day was plagued by offline systems; power outages; service delivery protests; and voting stations not opening on time. Voters were lucky if they spent an hour and a half in the queue, while some reported waiting more than nine hours to exercise their democratic right.



With mass delays causing a backlog that could have rivalled Eskom’s maintenance schedule, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) issued an announcement that all those standing in line by 9PM on Wednesday night would still be allowed to vote despite the fact that polls were meant to close at that time. By 11PM, numerous voting stations were still open.



The IEC had anticipated voter turnout to be higher than that of the 66% reported in 2019. But even before hearing how long the process would take, many people expressed that they had no intention of making their mark.



“There is a general cynicism that has crept into the population. People see failing service delivery, divisive politics, so much corruption. It kind of creates this atmosphere of, you know, what&#8217;s the point?” explains Nicholas Lorimer, an analyst at the South African Institute of Race Relations.


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/GettyImages-2155270757.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-62033" style="width:608px;height:auto" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/GettyImages-2155270757.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/GettyImages-2155270757-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/GettyImages-2155270757-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The National Ballot results board at the IEC National Results Center on May 30, 2024 in Johannesburg, South Africa. (Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images)</figcaption></figure></div>


Lorimer is of the belief that an inspirational, charismatic leader is needed to shift perspective — but does one even exist?



“If you look at each of the big parties in South Africa, you can find something wrong with them. You kind of need someone who doesn&#8217;t have all the baggage to emerge on the scene, but no one&#8217;s managed to crack the secret to it yet.”



One of the reasons that this election is so significant is because the African National Congress (ANC) is expected to attain below 50% for the first time since coming into power 30 years ago. The expected result of 40%-45% will force the ruling party to rely on smaller parties to form a coalition.



“The country’s track record with coalitions isn’t good,” notes electoral analyst, Wayne Sussman. “We have coalitions in all three Gauteng metros and they haven&#8217;t been that stable. So, hopefully, lessons will be learned.”



Potential alliances could see parties with very different viewpoints having to band together, with some partnerships likely to be more erratic than others.



“The business community probably wants an ANC-DA (Democratic Alliance) coalition because they will view that as being stable and possibly even coming with some kind of fiscal and policy reform in a more business-friendly direction. But while that may be the sentiment, I think it&#8217;s probably a misplaced one,” says Lorimer.



“I suspect that such a coalition would quickly become volatile due to the very big differences between those two parties.”



Investors are also likely to be wary of an ANC coalition with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) or uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), former South African President Jacob Zuma’s party, which has been open about its desire to abolish the constitution and empower traditional leaders, while the ‘red berets’ have plans to nationalize several sectors of the economy.



Overall, a coalition government could be exactly what is needed for a country that remains divided by key issues like race, service delivery, and unemployment.



“Data has suggested that, in general, South Africans are actually pretty open to the idea of a coalition government, especially between big parties,” states Lorimer.



“They like the idea of unity, of people coming together and putting aside their differences, compromise and consensus of terms and ideas.”

Tag: African National Congress (ANC)

FORBES AFRICA SOCIAL MEDIA

South Africa: The Era Of Coalition Politics Begins

South Africans Await Election Results; Voting Day Fraught With Challenges