Risk in investing is a feature, not a bug. It is, in fact, the reason we expect to earn higher long-term returns than provided by risk-free assets. When thinking about risk, investors should think equally about the investment term, too. The longer we remain invested, the lower the risk generally becomes – a principle that the most successful investors have well understood.
There are many sources of risk that might concern investors currently – making the case for diversification as strong today as it ever was. Below we highlight some of these risks and the opportunities they present.
When Will the Rates Abate?
Investors have been anticipating rate cuts from central banks as inflation has subsided. However, inflation can be challenging to control, and central banks have remained cautious longer than expected. When rates are eventually cut, it should be positive for fixed income bonds and equities, as borrowing costs for leveraged companies will decrease, and the risk-free rate used to value companies will reduce.
Impact of Middle Eastern Conflict on Equities
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Oil is a crucial commodity, influenced by many factors, including OPEC’s coordinated supply, which represents almost 80% of the world’s proven oil reserves and about 40% of its production. Oil’s price significantly affects transportation costs and overall inflation, given its widespread use and role as a base ingredient in many products. However, new oil discoveries, such as those off the coast of Namibia, diversify supply and make the market more resilient to regional or geopolitical disruptions.
Global Diversification: Africa and India
Global diversification is crucial for South Africans as our market represents a small portion of global investment opportunities. Emerging markets generally offer higher economic growth potential, often reflected in their equity markets and offset by typically higher interest rates. The U.S. has benefited from low interest rates for over a decade, with its market led primarily by the innovative technology sector.
India, the fastest-growing large economy, has a substantial technology services industry and is priced at a significantly higher Price/Earnings multiple compared to the broad MSCI Emerging Markets Index. It is even marginally higher than the MSCI USA Index as it prices in future growth prospects. It’s an exciting investment market, but it should be part of a broader portfolio that also includes undervalued segments offering potential upside.
The Tech Bubble Question
Nico Katzke, Head of Portfolio Solutions at Satrix*, believes that valuations across the global tech sector, although seemingly stretched at present, are largely on the back of more solid fundamentals and real opportunities than was the case in previous tech rallies. Tech index proxies, like the Nasdaq, are dominated by large corporations with strong cash-flows investing in their capacity to service tomorrow’s applications in AI. Growth opportunities remain in this sector, and it is unlikely to wane in its importance in the economy of tomorrow. Building diversified exposure to global tech through time, and not timing entry, seems the best approach at present.
Benefits of Offshore Diversification
At Satrix, we advocate investing primarily through well-diversified asset class exposures, tracking broad market indices. We review asset classes for medium- to long-term performance to inform a strategically-diversified asset allocation for our multi-asset balanced funds. We also target long-term drivers of excess returns within equities by tilting our portfolios towards well-recognized performance drivers, avoiding the temptation to profit from short-term market movements and noise.
Local Investments in South Africa
South Africa stands at a critical point 30 years after democracy. The new Government of National Unity, led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, aims to revive economic growth through policy reforms and restructuring. As these efforts take hold, investor confidence could lead to a re-rating in our equity market, currently trading at a discount (13.3x) to its long-term average (15.4x). Against this backdrop, the rand is likely to re-rate, posing a headwind to offshore investments as they devalue in rand terms. A stronger currency would give the South African Reserve Bank more freedom to cut interest rates, supporting local bonds.
While uncertainties remain, excluding the home market from investments may not be wise. Balancing global and local investments offers a robust strategy to achieve financial goals amidst uncertainty.
Approaches to Robust Diversification
Investors can ensure a diversified portfolio through several approaches:
- Outsourcing to a Financial Adviser: A financial adviser can construct an appropriately diversified portfolio.
- Investing in Multi-Asset Funds: Investment managers can diversify optimally across different asset classes and geographies.
- Constructing a Multi-Asset Portfolio: Building a diversified portfolio by investing in different specialist asset class funds yourself.
Each option should be weighed against one’s life stage, investment expertise, and the time and information available to make informed decisions.
*Satrix is a division of Sanlam Investment Management
Disclaimer Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd is an approved FSP in terms of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (FAIS). The information does not constitute advice as contemplated in FAIS. Use or rely on this information at your own risk. Consult your Financial Adviser before making an investment decision. Satrix Managers is a registered Manager in terms of the Collective Investment Schemes Control Act, 2002. While every effort has been made to ensure the reasonableness and accuracy of the information contained in this document (“the information”), the FSPs, their shareholders, subsidiaries, clients, agents, officers and employees do not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or suitability of the information and shall not be held responsible and disclaim all liability for any loss, liability and damage whatsoever suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to any use of or reliance upon the information.
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